HomeMy WebLinkAbout10/19/2021 Item Public Comment, Roudebush
PREPARED FOR CUESTA COLLEGE
Economic Impact of
Child Care in San Luis
Obispo County
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Key Findings .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................... 4
Demographic and Economic Data ................................................................................................................. 5
Impacts of COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................. 5
Child Care Workers in SLO County ............................................................................................................ 6
Child Care in SLO County ........................................................................................................................... 7
Potential Child Care Population .............................................................................................................. 10
Initial Economic Impact Model ................................................................................................................... 11
Economic Impact Model Outputs ............................................................................................................... 12
Introduction to Economic Impacts ...................................................................................................... 12
Economic Activity of the Current Child Care Workforce .................................................................... 13
Impacts of Meeting Demand for Child Care ........................................................................................... 14
Referral Estimated Demand ................................................................................................................ 14
Potential Universe Estimates of Demand ........................................................................................... 16
Return on Investment ............................................................................................................................. 17
Subsidizing Child Care in SLO County ...................................................................................................... 19
Appendix A: Regional Definitions................................................................................................................ 20
Appendix B: Research Methodology ........................................................................................................... 21
Economic Impact Modeling ................................................................................................................ 21
2
Executive Summary
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented volatility across different industries and types of
workers. Through the closures of schools and child care programs and the rise of remote work, few
industries have faced as much disruption as child care. The turmoil of the pandemic has only
-can
be described through challenges related to the accessibility to child care, the affordability of child care,
and the quality of child care. This research, commissioned by Cuesta College and its partners in the
region, discusses some of these challenges and factors that play a role in the child care industry. The
research ultimately provides an economic impact assessment of child care in San Luis Obispo (SLO)
County to describe the economic role that the industry plays in the county. This assessment includes a
current estimate of the economic impact of child care on the economy, as well as the economic
potential that may be possible through the expansion of child care. The data used in this report only
reflect the available data on licensed child care programs. While unlicensed and informal child care
programs certainly play a role in the child care sector, data on these programs are sparse.
Key Findings
Most child care workers can work full-time and still not earn a living wage. The living wage for a single
1
adult with no dependents in San Luis Obispo County is roughly $38,400 per year. The average earnings
for a child care worker in the county are $27,200, meaning that the average full-time worker will make
only 71% of the living wage. A single-parent child care worker with one child of their own will make only
a third (33%) of the living wage for the county, on average. This creates a terrible paradox, where child
themselves or families of their own.
Child care is expensive, and child care workers likely cannot afford full-cost child care for their own
child. The average cost of child care in SLO County is roughly $10,000 per year. This means that the cost
of child care for one child is about 18% of the pre-tax earnings of the average worker in SLO County. For
child care workers, this represents roughly 37% of their pre-tax income.
There is a large need for additional child care capacity in SLO County. The conservative estimate
suggests that 2,300 children in the county may have working parents but are not enrolled in a program.
The high-end estimate suggests there may be as many as 16,000 of these children ages 12 and under.
Meeting 100% of the low-end estimates for the potential need for child care in SLO County would
increase Gross Regional Product (GRP) by more than $108 million annually and support and create 425
jobs from this new economic activity. This activity would also generate more than five million dollars in
local and county taxes and nearly seven million in state revenues.
1
MIT Living Wage Calculator. https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/06079
3
Meeting the entirety of the high-end estimate of potential child care demand would have even
greater economic impacts, contributing $734 million to GRP, roughly equivalent to the GRP
contributions of Full-Service Restaurants, Residential Property Managers, and Hotels, combined.
Adding 8,300 new workers to the SLO County Workforce would create and support close to 2,900
additional jobs in the economy through indirect and induced effects.
In the 2019-2020 school year, state and federal subsidies for child care in SLO County were just under
$24 million. These subsidies created and supported more than 2,400 jobs in the county and added
$161 million in GRP, but these subsidies only reduced the conservative gap between child care needs
and what was provided by approximately half. The added economic activity from existing subsidies also
bolsters tax collections, adding nearly $42 million to federal, state, and local coffers. This subsidy
spending would have to roughly double to meet the remaining gap of the conservative estimate of child
care needs.
Conclusions
BW Research offers the following conclusions based on the findings of this research:
There is a considerable need to expand the delivery of child care services in SLO County. The
conservative estimate suggests that 2,300 children ages 12 and younger would participate in child care if
it were more accessible. This presents a substantial opportunity for the county to support student
learning and development while simultaneously allowing more parents to enter the local labor force,
generating additional economic activity. The additional economic activity would be substantial, enabling
up to 1,400 additional workers to enter the local labor force, resulting in $108 million in Gross Regional
Product annually and $28 million in local, state, and federal taxes annually.
-K education and subsidized child care for low and
middle-income families could have benefits for SLO County, though the county will likely still face
child care shortages. The initiatives proposed through the American Families Plan would address some
some barriers still persist, particularly for those families just above low-income thresholds. Furthermore,
the scale of the proposed efforts would require more resources and coordination on the ground through
Community-Based Organizations and other regional institutions.
Meeting the needs of child care demand in SLO County will require a larger workforce. Developing
career pathways into, through, and from child care may help attract and retain more workers. A clear
designation of career pathways within and out of child care can signal to potential workers that there is
upward mobility and opportunity for advancement. This upward mobility may not only help retain
employees for longer, but it may also help reward longer-term and more experienced workers with
higher pay. Additionally, profiling the skills and abilities developed throughout a child care job can help
workersand future employersunderstand the value of a background in child care and connect it to
additional employment opportunities. Tying these strengthened skills and abilities to other jobs outside
of child care may help increase the pipeline of interested talent.
Low pay perpetuates challenges in the child care industry. The data in this report highlights the crucial
economic role that child care workers play within the community. Along with the short-term economic
impacts, quality child care offers long-term societal benefits; numerous studies have shown that quality
4
2
child care can influence the future outcomes of participating children. This report also highlights that
these workers are underpaid relative to the societal benefits they provide, with wages that are often
below the living wage for the county. Policies that support these workers and the opportunity for higher
pay will help ensure that they can continue to provide quality child care that generates outsized impacts
on the local economy. Regional investments in a healthier and more sustainable child care workforce
would generate both short-term and long-term benefits.
Demographic and Economic Data
This section of the report provides data on the underlying state of child care in San Luis Obispo (SLO)
County. These data provide detail on the impacts of COVID-19 on the child care sector, the child care
workforce, and the estimated supply and demand for child care in the region.
Impacts of COVID-19
Data from the California Child Care Resource & Referral Network suggests that the number of licensed
home programs in SLO County fell by 10% between January 2020 - January 2021. This decline is not
unique to family programs; the number of total licensed programs declined by a similar 13% in SLO
County (Figure 1). This suggests there are roughly 900 children whose child care program has not re-
opened. At the height of the pandemic, 62% of licensed programs were closed, equating to 4,500
children and their families without child care options. Ensuring the full return of child care will be a
crucial step to helping workers return to their jobs as public health orders subside.
3
Figure 1. COVID-19 Changes to Number of Licensed Child Care Programs in San Luis Obispo County
0.0%
Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20Apr-20May-20Jun-20Jul-20Aug-20Sep-20Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21
-10.0%
-13.1%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
-60.0%
-70.0%
2
See as the latest example from MIT: https://seii.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SEII-Discussion-
Paper-2021.4-Gray-Lobe-Pathak-and-Walters.pdf
3
How the pandemic has impacted California child care supply California Child Care Resource &
Referral Network. https://rrnetwork.org/assets/general-files/COVID-Graphs-San-Luis-Obispo.pdf
5
Child Care Workers in SLO County
There are roughly 600 Child Care Workers in SLO County, representing 0.5% of the overall workforce.
The child care workforce has declined by approximately 7% between 2015 and 2020. On average, Child
Care Workers in SLO county earn $27,200 in annual wages. This is about $3,000 lower than the
statewide average, and $2,300 higher than the national average. Child Care Workers also make roughly
50% of the average wages of workers overall in SLO County (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Average Earnings
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$
SLO County AverageCaliforniaUSA
Childcare WorkersAll Occupations
Most child care workers can work full-time and still not earn a living wage. It is important to factor in
notably higher than the national average. According to
4
the M.I.T. Living Wage Calculator, the living wage for a single adult with no dependents is $18.44 per
hour, or just under $38,400 per year. This means child care workers with no dependents can work full-
time and still earn only 71% of the living wage for the county. The financial situation is even more
strained for child care workers with children; the living wage for a single adult with one child is roughly
$83,000 per year, and the average child care worker would only earn about 33% of that living wage
(Table 1). Thus, a terrible paradox is formed; the average child care worker can work full-time
supporting othersand is unable to financially support themselves, let alone their own family.
Table 1. Living Wages and Child Care Worker Wages
Share of Living Wage Met by Full-
Annual Living Wage
Time Child Care Worker Wages
Single adult, no dependents $38,355 71%
Single adult, one child $82,846 33%
Two working adults, two children $55,286 49%
4
MIT Living Wage Calculator. https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/06079
6
Child Care Workers in SLO County are relatively well-educated. Nearly half (48%) of all Child Care
Workers in the county have some college or an associate degree, and another 22% have a four-year
degree or higher (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Educational Attainment in SLO County
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Less than HS DiplomaHS Diploma or EquivalentSome College or AssociateFour Year-Degree or More
Degree
Childcare WorkersAll Occupations
Child Care in SLO County
Of the 7,210 spaces available at licensed child care programs, half are at preschool programs for children
ages 2-5. Licensed family home care programs offer the second-most spaces, with roughly 2,400 spaces
for children across a range of ages (Figure 4).
5
Figure 4. Share of Child Care Spaces Available
7,210 Spaces
Licensed Child Care Supply Center
spaces Infant (0-23 months)
3%
Licensed Child Care Supply
Family child care home spaces
34%
Licensed Child Care Supply Center
spaces Preschool (2-5 years)
50%
Licensed Child Care Supply Center
spaces Schoolage (6+ years)
13%
5
California Child Care Resource & Referral Network. (2019). 2019 Child Care Portfolio, San Luis Obispo
County
7
Annual costs of child care in SLO County are high. Even though costs in SLO County are slightly lower
than the statewide average, child care costs are exceptionally burdensome. For example, the average
cost of annual full-time child care in SLO County is approximately $10,000 per child (Figure 5). Put
another way, the average cost of full-time child care would cost a Child Care Worker an average of 37%
of their annual wages (Table 2). This means that after the cost of child care, an average Child Care
Worker would make approximately $8.27 per hour.
6
Figure 5. Average Annual Costs of Child Care
$20,000
$17,500
$15,000
$12,500
$10,000
$7,500
$5,000
$2,500
$-
Cost of Care Infant CareCost of Care Infant CareCost of Care PreschoolCost of Care Preschool
(0-23 months)(0-23 months) Familycare (2-5 years)Care (2-5 years) Family
ProgramProgram
CaliforniaSLO County
7
Table 2. Share of Average Annual Income Spent on Annual Child Care
Average Child Care
Average Worker
Worker
One Child 37% 18%
Two Children 74% 27%
6
California Child Care Resource & Referral Network. (2019). 2019 Child Care Portfolio, San Luis Obispo
County
7
Percentages based on average cost of $10,000 annually for full-time care. $27,200 average wages for
Child Care Workers, $54,300 average wages for all SLO workers, and $77,265 for median household
incomes.
8
Family child care programs play a large role in the SLO child care economy, both in scale and
flexibility. Eighty-five percent of family child care programs in SLO County offer both part- and full-time
services. Furthermore, a third (33%) offer evening, weekend, or overnight care. This type of care is
important for families with non-traditional work schedules and fills in a gap in services in the region, as
no licensed non-family child care programs offer such services (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Child Care Offerings by Program Type
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Offering Full-Offering Full-Offering onlyOffering onlyOffering onlyOffering onlyOfferingOffering
Time andTime andFull-TimeFull-TimePart-TimePart-TimeEvening,Evening,
Part-TimePart-TimeSpacesSpaces FamilySpacesSpaces -Weekend, orWeekend, or
SpacesSpaces -ProgramFamilyOvernightOvernight
FamilyProgramCareCare - Family
ProgramProgram
CaliforniaSLO County
The Long-Term Benefits of Quality Child Care
Along with the economic benefits of additional workers able to enter the workforce, access to
child care can have long-term benefits to child outcomes. A recent NBER working paper
(Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Parag A. Pathak, and Christopher R. Walters, May 2021) found that, when
families in Boston were randomly provided with universal child care, the participating children
were subsequently more likely to graduate high school and attend college, and less likely to
enter juvenile incarceration. Another study (Arthur J. Reynolds, et Al., 2011), after finding
similar findings as mentioned above, conducted a cost-benefit analysis, finding that every
dollar spent on a preschool program produced $10.83 in benefits to society through additional
earnings and tax revenues, reduced expenditures on crime and decreased future education
costs through fewer remedial courses. These benefits often go unaccounted for.
9
Potential Child Care Population
San Luis Obispo County has nearly 15,000 children under the age of six. Of those children, approximately
8
9,700 (65%) have parents in the labor force. The SLO sub-region has the greatest percentage of children
with parents in the labor force (Table 3). Among children between 6 and 12 years of age, roughly 71%
have either both parents working, or live in single-parent households where that parent is working
(Table 4).
9
Table 3. Children in SLO County Under the Age of Six
Children with parents in % of children with parents
Total Children
10
the labor force in labor force
Coastal 1,677 1,038 61.9%
North County 6,506 4,003 61.5%
SLO Sub-Region 2,054 1,584 77.1%
South County 4,610 3,080 66.8%
Grand Total 14,847 9,705 65.4%
11
Table 4. Children in SLO County Between 6 and 12
Children with parents in % of children with parents
Total Children
12
the labor force in labor force
Coastal 2,266 1,544 68.1%
North County 7,958 5,743 72.2%
SLO Sub-Region 2,807 2,023 72.1%
South County 6,253 4,287 68.6%
Grand Total 19,284 13,597 70.5%
8
This category includes children in households with either a) both parents working or b) single-parent
households with one working parent.
9
American Community Survey. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014-2019. 2019 Data.
10
This category includes children in households with either a) both parents working or b) single-parent
households with one working parent.
11
American Community Survey. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014-2019. 2019 Data.
12
This category includes children in households with either a) both parents working or b) single-parent
households with one working parent.
10
Initial Economic Impact Model
The research team developed a preliminary model of the current offerings, requested demand, and
potential universe of demand for child care. The research team estimates that there are potentially
23,300 children 12 and younger that have working parents. This figure is considerably higher than the
estimated 7,210 available child care spaces in the county (Table 5). Roughly 88% of the referral-based
estimated demand for child care is currently met by SLO child care programs for children under the age
13
of 6. -based demand for children ages 6-12 is met (Figure
7).
-bound estimate for demand, while
-bound estimate for demand for
Table 5. Potential Universe, Referral-Demand, and Current Seats by Number of Children
Under 6 6 to 12 12 and Under
14
Requested Demand 6,467 3,032 9,499
15
Potential Universe 9,705 13,597 23,302
16
Current Seats 5,658 1,552 7,210
Requested Demand Gap (809) (1,480) (2,289)
Potential Universe Gap (4,047) (12,045) (16,092)
13
This estimate is provided by the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network and based on
child referral request data.
14
Data from California Child Care Resource and Referral Network and based on child care referral
request data.
15
This includes children in households with either a) both parents working or b) single-parent
households with one working parent.
16
Data from California Child Care Resource and Referral Network and based on state-licensed programs.
11
Figure 7. Share of Child Care Demand Met by Child Age
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
Children Under 6Children 6 to 12Children 12 and Under
% of referral estimated demand met% of potential universe met
Adjusting the number of children in need of child care by the average number of children per household,
the research team estimates that nearly 9,300 parents could enter the workforce if 100% of the demand
for child care of the potential universe was met. If 100% of the referral-estimated demand was met,
nearly 1,400 parents would be able to join the workforce. This next section applies economic impacts to
-where child care was no longer a barrier
17
to employment.
Economic Impact Model Outputs
INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC IMPACTS
This section of the report provides an overview of the types of economic impacts. To capture the
complete range of economic activity that occurs as a result of child care related activity, the economic
impacts are broken down into direct, indirect, and induced effects.
- Direct effects show the change in the economy associated with the initial job creation and or
initial economic activity. In this case, direct jobs represent Child Care Workers and any
managerial or administrative staff involved in child care.
- Indirect effects include all the backward linkages or the supply chain responses as a result of the
initial (direct) effects. An example of an indirect job would be a new delivery driver who is hired
to deliver the additional cleaning supplies that a child care program orders.
- Induced effects refer to household spending and are the result of direct and indirect workers
spending their wages. An example of an induced job would be a local restaurant hiring more
17
These estimates also assume that child care is the sole barrier to employment, and that 100% of
parents would seek to enter the workforce.
12
staff because child care workers and delivery drivers are going out to eat more now because of
their income.
Other terms used in the economic impact analysis are:
Labor Income The total value of monetary paychecks and benefits received by
relevant parties.
Value Added Gross output less intermediate inputs. This is equivalent to Gross
Regional Product (GRP).
Output The total economic impact, which includes value added and
intermediate expenses (money spent on materials or goods from
other industries).
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE CURRENT CHILD CARE WORKFORCE
18
The current child care industry in SLO County employs nearly 670 people that allow an estimated 3,850
parents to enter the workforce. The additional entrants to the workforce have a multiplier effect,
generating and sustaining nearly 700 jobs through indirect effects and nearly 900 additional jobs
through induced effects (Table 6). This economic activity also results in substantial tax revenue, equating
to $19 million annually in local and county taxes (Table 7).
Table 6. Annual Economic Impact of Current Child Care Industry
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 4,516 $198,651,339 $264,226,328 $461,215,358
Indirect 687 $33,129,363 $51,520,874 $107,287,804
Induced 876 $42,038,150 $83,347,094 $136,618,520
Total 6,079 $273,818,852 $399,094,295 $705,121,682
Table 7. Annual Fiscal Impact of Current Child Care Industry
Local and
State Federal Total
County
Direct $11,227,327 $16,119,341 $41,832,384 $69,179,052
Indirect $2,510,349 $3,270,892 $6,979,869 $12,761,110
Induced $5,347,788 $5,924,723 $9,723,464 $20,995,975
Total $19,085,464 $25,314,956 $58,535,717 $102,936,137
18
This estimate is based on average children per household and labor force participation rate of women
between the ages of 25 and 54.
13
Impacts of Meeting Demand for Child Care
This section outlines the economic impact outcomes of meeting the total demand for child care in SLO
County. There are two methods used in this section to estimate the demand for child care that is
currently not being met; one method uses estimates produced by the California Child Care Resource and
by including all households with parents who are working. These two methods provide low- and high-
end estimates for the share of demand not currently met.
It is also important to note that these estimates are based on the economic potential of meeting the
entirety of child care needs. There are a few assumptions built into this model; first, this model assumes
all parents that are subsequently without child care will enter the workforce at rates similar to a
19
comparison demographic. Second, the model assumes that these parents could enter the labor force
with minimal barriers. In practice, the sudden introduction of thousands of new entrants to the
workforce would have substantial effects on the labor market. Data are segmented by two age
categories (5 & under and those ages 6-12) because of limitations in data granularity.
REFERRAL ESTIMATED DEMAND
Under the estimations provided by the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network,
approximately 76% of all child care demand for children ages 12 and younger is met. However, this
would still leave nearly 1,400 households without child care. This economic impact model assumes that
child care needs for all 1,400 households can be met, resulting in 1,400 additional workers able to
consider joining the workforce. We then use the labor force participation rate of women between the
ages of 25 and 54 to approximate how many of these potential workers would seek to enter the
workforce.
Meeting 100% of referral estimated demand for child care would increase Gross Regional Product
(GRP) in SLO County by more than $108 million annually, roughly the equivalent of New Car Dealers
and Petroleum Refineries in the county. The new entrants to the workforce would also result in the
creation and support of 425 new indirect and induced jobs through the increased purchasing power of
the new direct and indirect workers. This new economic activity would also generate $28 million in local,
state, and federal taxes annually. Municipalities and the county would see nearly $5.2 million in
additional tax revenues (Table 9 and Table 11). The additional care to meet the referral estimated
demand for children under the age of six would create and support more than 700 jobs (Table 8), while
care for children between the ages of 6 and 12 would create and support more than 900 jobs annually
(Table 10).
19
The rate used is the national labor force participation rate (76%) of women between the ages of 25
and 54. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
14
Children Under Six
Table 8. Annual Economic Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Under Six)
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 541 $23,780,941 $31,629,076 $55,178,499
Indirect 82 $3,966,183 $6,167,249 $12,841,329
Induced 105 $5,032,399 $9,977,504 $16,354,642
Total 728 $32,779,523 $47,773,829 $84,374,470
Table 9. Annual Fiscal Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Under Six)
Local and County State Federal Total
Direct $1,341,646 $1,927,894 $5,007,451 $8,276,990
Indirect $300,335 $391,433 $835,560 $1,527,328
Induced $640,185 $709,250 $1,163,999 $2,513,434
Total $2,282,166 $3,028,577 $7,007,010 $12,317,752
Children Six to Twelve
Table 10. Annual Economic Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Ages Six to Twelve)
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 689 $30,267,284 $40,297,090 $70,280,127
Indirect 105 $5,039,790 $7,840,976 $16,335,878
Induced 133 $6,403,332 $12,695,596 $20,809,999
Total 927 $41,710,406 $60,833,662 $107,426,005
Table 11. Annual Fiscal Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Ages Six to Twelve)
Local and County State Federal Total
Direct $1,707,461 $2,454,118 $6,374,388 $10,535,967
Indirect $382,049 $497,749 $1,061,869 $1,941,667
Induced $814,587 $902,466 $1,481,097 $3,198,150
Total $2,904,097 $3,854,333 $8,917,355 $15,675,784
15
POTENTIAL UNIVERSE ESTIMATES OF DEMAND
The potential universe of households requiring child care is much larger than the referral-based estimate
provided by the California Child Care Resource and Referral Network. The potential universe includes all
households with children under the age of twelve and either a) both parents working or b) single-parent
households with one working parent. Under this definition, there are 14,366 households in SLO County
in need of child care, 5,072 of which are currently having their demand met. This estimate suggests
there are nearly 9,300 households in the county without child care. Meeting this demand would require
950 more workers involved in child care. The economic impacts of these additional child care workers
are included in the below figures.
Meeting 100% of the needs of these 9,300 households would spur the creation and support of roughly
11,200 jobs in SLO County, adding $734 million to GRP. This is a GRP contribution roughly equivalent to
the GRP contributions of Full-Service Restaurants, Residential Property Managers, and Hotels,
combined. Under these assumptions, the addition of 8,300 new workers to the SLO County workforce
would generate close to 2,900 indirect and induced jobs (Table 12 and Table 14). Meeting 100% of the
potential demand for child care in SLO County would also generate an additional $189 million in fiscal
impacts, including $35 million of which would go to local and county coffers (Table 13 and Table 15).
Children Under Six
Table 12. Annual Economic Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Under Six)
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 2,718 $119,575,137 $159,031,123 $277,846,287
Indirect 414 $19,963,658 $31,043,681 $64,640,213
Induced 528 $25,309,082 $50,179,103 $82,251,210
Total 3,659 $164,847,876 $240,253,907 $424,737,709
Table 13. Annual Fiscal Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Under Six)
Local and
State Federal Total
County
Direct $6,771,654 $9,712,564 $25,180,228 $41,664,445
Indirect $1,513,258 $1,971,369 $4,206,122 $7,690,749
Induced $3,219,627 $3,566,973 $5,854,013 $12,640,614
Total $11,504,539 $15,250,907 $35,240,363 $61,995,809
16
Children Six to Twelve
Table 14. Annual Economic Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Ages Six to Twelve)
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 5,596 $245,875,173 $327,390,689 $570,712,690
Indirect 849 $40,949,484 $63,701,839 $132,710,944
Induced 1,084 $52,018,809 $103,135,230 $169,054,345
Total 7,530 $338,843,467 $494,227,758 $872,477,979
Table 15. Annual Fiscal Impact of Meeting 100% of Referral Estimated Demand (Children Ages Six to Twelve)
Local and County State Federal Total
Direct $13,849,029 $19,920,859 $51,777,086 $85,546,974
Indirect $3,101,567 $4,042,315 $8,627,223 $15,771,105
Induced $6,617,442 $7,331,355 $12,031,998 $25,980,795
Total $23,568,038 $31,294,528 $72,436,307 $127,298,874
Return on Investment
As the previous sections of this report have shown, there are substantial societal benefits to a bolstered
child care industry. These benefits flow throughout the economy as parents can re-enter the workforce,
resulting in additional tax revenue and discretionary income spent in the local economy. This section
outlines some approximations on the societal benefits that are generated from adding one additional
worker in the child care industry. This exercise provides a rough idea of the return on investment each
additional worker in the child care industry.
20
Given state requirements and practical limitations, child care workers for younger ages must have
fewer students. This is particularly true for infant and toddler (students under 3 years of age) teachers,
who have an average student-to-teacher ratio of less than five (Table 17). As a result, child care workers
for younger ages open fewer new seats for students and subsequently fewer workers can matriculate
into the labor market per additional child care worker. It should also be noted that, because programs
have to scale their administrative and managerial staff as the number of teachers grow, these ratios
include all adult staff, including administrators and management.
20
https://rrnetwork.org/assets/general-files/Title-5-Title-22-Comparison-Chart.pdf
17
Table 16. Student Openings Per Additional Child Care Worker Added (by student age)
Workers Available
Student Openings
to Enter Labor
21
Added
Market
Per Infant & Toddler Care (under 3 years) Professional
4.7 3.6
Added
Per Preschool Care (3-5 years) to Professional Added 11.2 5.8
Per School Age (6+) Care Professional Added 13.0 6.7
Each additional child care professional that enters a program adds between $320,200 and $540,300 in
Gross Regional Product (GRP, or Value Added) annually, depending on the age of the children (Table 17).
Furthermore, each additional child care professional would generate, on average, between $14,000 and
$25,600 in local taxes and another $19,300 to $34,100 in state taxes annually (Table 18).
Table 17. Annual Economic Activity Generated per Child Care Professional Added to a Program
Value Added Output
Per Infant & Toddler Care (under 3 years) Professional
$320,164 $552,083
Added
Per Preschool Care (3-5 years) to Professional Added $475,117 $833,536
Per School Age (6+) Care Professional Added $540,250 $951,842
Table 18. Annual Fiscal Benefit per Child Care Professional Added to a Program
Local and
State Federal Total
County
Per Infant & Toddler Care (under 3 years)
$14,136 $19,349 $46,138 $79,623
Professional Added
Per Preschool Care (3-5 years) to
$22,206 $29,715 $69,319 $121,240
Professional Added
Per School Age (6+) Care Professional
$25,597 $34,073 $79,063 $138,733
Added
21
State requirements vary by teaching credential and licensing. The figures used for these estimates are
determined through licensing requirements as well as average staff counts, so an additional worker
includes the added need for administrative and managerial staff as well.
18
Subsidizing Child Care in SLO County
During the 2019-2020 school year, roughly 2,400 children in 2,100 families received financial support for
22
child care. These subsidiesfrom federal and state providersamounted to nearly $23.7 million over
the academic year. Table 19 and Table 20 highlight the economic impacts of these subsidies by allowing
an estimated 1,600 workers to join the labor market and supporting the 220 child care workers needed
to meet the additional child care demand. The economic activity from these 1,800 additional workers
generates $161 million annually in GRP and creates and supports an additional 630 jobs through indirect
and induced effects. The fiscal benefits are substantial as well, as these new workers generate $41.8
million in federal, state, and local tax revenues. Given these findings, an additional $22.5 million in
subsidies would be needed to meet the lower-bound estimate gap in child care need.
Table 19. Annual Economic Impact of Subsidized Child Care in SLO County
Value Added
Employment Labor Income Output
(GRP)
Direct 1,815 $80,380,554 $106,319,199 $187,134,258
Indirect 279 $13,539,334 $21,010,680 $43,649,460
Induced 355 $17,041,789 $33,787,857 $55,383,559
Total 2,449 $110,961,677 $161,117,736 $286,167,277
Table 20. Annual Fiscal Impact of Subsidized Child Care in SLO County
Local and County State Federal Total
Direct $4,637,628 $6,585,075 $16,921,957 $28,144,661
Indirect $1,026,405 $1,336,424 $2,852,434 $5,215,263
Induced $2,167,907 $2,401,795 $3,941,778 $8,511,479
Total $7,831,940 $10,323,294 $23,716,170 $41,871,403
22
These figures do not include data from two smaller programs that either have few subsidized seats or
are largely licensed exempt. Thus, these figures account for a strong majority of the subsidized child care
activity in the county.
19
Appendix A: Regional Definitions
Table 23. South County Sub-Region
Table 21. City of SLO Sub-Region
Zip Code
Zip Code
93422
93401
93423
93403
93432
93405
93446
93406
93447
93407
93451
93408
93453
93409
93461
93410
93465
Table 24. Coastal Sub-Region
Table 22. North County Sub-Region
Zip Code
Zip Code
93402
93422
93412
93423
93424
93432
93428
93446
93430
93447
93435
93451
93442
93453
93443
93461
93452
93465
20
Appendix B: Research Methodology
Population and demographic figures at the zip code and county level were obtained from the U.S.
Census Bureau, 2014-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
BW Research utilized JobsEQ for baseline employment figures. The 2020 Q3 dataset was used for this
report.
ECONOMIC IMPACT MODELING
The research team utilized IMPLAN input-output economic impact modelling service to generate the
estimated effects of child care in SLO County. This system utilizes complex models of industry spending
patterns, commodity demands, and relationships between industries.
Two separate methods were employed for approximating the overall demand for child care in SLO
County. One method uses estimates produced by the California Child Care Resource and Referral
Network usin
including all households where either a) both parents are in the workforce or b) parents in single-adult
households are in the workforce. Existing child care capacity was then subtracted from these values to
child care services. Since women remain the parents that primarily forgo
the labor market to provide child care, worker inputs were proportional across the 22 largest IMPLAN
sectors that employ the greatest number of women workers.
The economic impact models used show the potential of meeting the entirety of child care needs. This
model assumes all parents that are subsequently without child care needs at home would be willing and
able to join the labor force. The research team used the labor force participation rate of a comparable
23
category (women between the ages of 25-54) to approximate the entry-rate into the workforce. It is
possible that this estimate produces a lower-bound, as the opportunity to earn extra income would
make entering the workforce an attractive prospect, particularly in a region with a high cost of living.
The ability of all of these parents to join the labor force is also unclear. While thousands of new entrants
to the world of work would disrupt the SLO County labor market, the additional demand brought on
through indirect and induced effects could create a feedback loop that spurs market demand for
workers.
23
https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
21