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FROM: Katie Lichtig, City Manager
Wayne Padilla, Director of Finance & Information Technology
Joe Lamers, Budget Manager
SUBJECT: INTERIM UPDATE OF THE 5-YEAR GENERAL FUND FISCAL FORECAST
RECOMMENDATION
1. Receive an update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast.
2. Provide direction to the City Manager regarding the recommended allocation of one-time
and ongoing budget resources to fund proposed supplemental funding requests as well as the
additional proposed uses of the General Fund reserve amount that exceeds the 20%
minimum level.
DISCUSSION
Staff has prepared an interim update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast in order to provide the City
Council and staff with a backdrop for use in determining how to address the various fiscal issues
that have been identified and which will be coming back to the City Council for further
deliberation in the future. These issues include the $24 million unfunded liability within the
California Public Employees retirement system; the $2.025 million balance owed to the
California Joint Powers Insurance Authority for the retrospective deposit; developing the fiscal
contingency plan to address the possibility that the Measure Y revenue stream is not extended;
providing the resources necessary to match the contributions of other public agencies within the
county to provide for a homeless services center. Through the mid-year budget review, staff has
developed a recommendation for three supplemental funding requests for Development Services,
the Fire Vehicle Mechanic program and a vehicle locating and routing software for the fire
department totaling $955,000 in the current year. Of that amount, $105,789 represents on-going
costs. These requests, which are fully detailed in the Mid-Year Budget Update, have their one-
time and on-going cost elements reflected in the 5-year forecast.
Changes to the Forecast Format
The forecast document has a new look. It has been expanded from a 2 page document to 4 pages
in order to provide more detail to make it easier to understand and to ensure that there is
sufficient detail for the reader. The first page is a simple summary showing revenue and
expenditure totals and the beginning and ending fund balances. The subsequent pages provide
the revenue and expenditure detail, along with relevant notes on important assumptions.
Purpose of the Forecast
The purpose of this forecast is to assess the General Fund’s ability over the next five years—on
an “order of magnitude” basis—to do five things:
2-18-14
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Interim Update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast Page 2
1. Deliver current service levels.
2. Maintain the City’s existing infrastructure and facilities based on past funding levels.
3. Preserve the City’s long-term fiscal health by aligning operating revenues and expenditures.
4. Maintain fund balance at policy levels.
5. Reinvest in the General Fund supported Capital Improvement Program, particularly in areas
that are underfunded such as infrastructure maintenance, fleet replacement, Information
Technology replacement, and facilities maintenance.
Revisions to the Revenue and Expenditure Forecasts
When the forecast was last presented to the City Council in December 2013, the only significant
change made at that time was to incorporate the 2012-13 actual results and to include the 2013-
15 Financial Plan as adopted in June 2013.
The following summarizes the information included in the updated forecast which is provided as
an attachment.
1. Revenue Forecast
In this forecast, the current year revenue numbers have been reset to reflect the most recent
results and current year forecasts presented at the Mid-Year Budget review. The following are
the highlights of the revenue forecast:
• Property tax revenues grew for the first time in 3 years during 2012-13 and are
expected to grow by $204,000 in 2013-14 over the prior year amount, after
adjustment for the $620,000 refund of overpaid administration fees that was received
last year. However the County has indicated that the inflation factor used to reset
Proposition 13 property values in 2014-15 will be nearly 1.5% less than the normal
2% rate that is used each year. Future year property tax forecast amounts have
therefore been adjusted to reflect that condition and staff will continue to monitor
property values with the county since property values that are not protected by
Proposition 13 may be adjusted at a higher rate if the Assessor deems it is warranted
by market conditions.
• Interest revenue continues to be forecast in amounts much lower than in the past and
a further reduction is being recommended for the current year. During the fiscal year
end close, staff learned that adjustments to the investment portfolio’s market value
which are based on monthly and quarterly valuations to determine unrealized market
gains and losses are being reported as part of the interest income stream. Staff is
working to separate the two items so that a better analysis of the interest returns can
be reported in the forecast and in the city’s year end financial results. While this will
not increase the overall revenue stream, it will be important to distinguish actual
return on investment from unrealized results.
• Utility User’s Tax (UUT) revenues forecast are based on a review of the UUT
payments made by each company to the city. The forecast indicates that receipts will
be 8% or $440,000 over the prior year amount. In the current year, the forecast will
add $600,000 to the current budget amount. A significant portion of this increase is
due to the change in the UUT ordinance that took effect on April 1, 2013 and
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Interim Update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast Page 3
expanded the type of wireless phone services that are subject to the tax as well as the
number of companies subject to collecting and remitting the tax.
• Transient Occupancy Taxes continue to show year over year growth. The current
forecast indicates that TOT will increase by 7.5% or $418,000 over the prior year.
The forecast represents $240,900 more revenue over the current budget forecast and
the next 4 years reflect average annual increases of between 4.4% and 5%. The
forecast for the future years aligns with that of the Tourism Business Improvement
District’s Strategic plan.
• Sales tax receipts and Measure Y receipts are both being forecast in accordance with
the guidance provided by HdL, the City’s sales tax revenue monitor. Due to the
termination in 2015-16 of the “Triple Flip” formula as it relates to the ¼ cent portion
of the general sales tax that the state exchanged for an equal amount of property
taxes, coupled with an expected decline in vehicle sales volume and declining
gasoline sales, HdL has forecast that there will a drop in general sales tax receipts in
2014-15. As part of the process to eliminate the property tax exchange for sales tax
revenue program, the “Triple Flip”, the state will make its final adjustments to the
payment advances that were made under that revenue exchange program and HdL is
expecting that the City will see a one-time negative adjustment resulting from this
process. All of these factors have been reflected in the forecast and resulted in the
2014-15 general sales tax receipts growing by only 1%, returning to a more normal
pattern in later years. It should be noted that those later year forecasts are tempered
with the expectation that the volume of car sales and fuel sales will be lower than
current volumes. According to HdL, It appears that the public’s appetite for new cars
is starting to wane while the larger number of highly fuel efficient cars is driving
down demand for gasoline.
• Development revenue receipts continue to surge this year, with another large volume
received at the end of December. The forecast reflects an increase over the original
budget of $1,204,000. The revised total includes $300,000 carried over from 2012-13
based on Council’s authorization received by Community Development in September
2013 to defer that amount and carry it over to this year. The new total is $752,000
more than the prior year total.
• The latest state forecast for Gas Tax revenues indicates that the current year estimate
will be $75,000 lower than originally reflected in the adopted budget. The forecast
for 2014-15 was adjusted as well to reflect a drop of $196,000 over the original
budget forecast. Gas taxes are based on volume of sales and not sales price, and as
mentioned earlier, the rapid expansion in the number of fuel-efficient cars placed into
service is causing a large drop in volume and the city receives its allocation based on
a per-capita allocation formula administered by the state. Staff will continue to
monitor the forecasts provided by the state.
2. Expenditure Forecast
• Both the one-time and recurring costs resulting from the recommended supplemental
funding requests are included in this forecast. $74,600 of the $954,800 funding
request for the current year is recommended for funding from the excess reserve over
the required 20% level. In 2014-15, $196,000 of the excess reserve is recommended
to fund one-time costs. After 2014-15, ongoing costs from these requests are
approximately $295,000.
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Interim Update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast Page 4
• There are two items that affect all funds which have staffing costs. The first is an
adjustment that is required to be made to properly reflect the full cost of the required
annual contribution for the retiree medical program. At the time the 2013-14 budget
was drafted, a portion of the annual required contribution was not included in the total
annual cost that is shared with all funds that have staffing costs, due to an oversight
when interpreting the actuarial report. This fact was discovered during the closing of
the 2012-13 financial records. This has resulted in the addition of $173,200 to
staffing costs in 2013-14 and the forecast for the future has been adjusted to reflect
ongoing additional costs of $200,000 in each year. This may be adjusted after the
updated actuarial report is received in the next few months.
The second adjustment reduces the amount that was budgeted for the cost of
Unemployment Insurance benefits by $83,400 in 2014-15. The city’s experience level
has been much lower than the expense forecast, allowing this reduction to occur.
Staff will continue to monitor the results of this program and provide corresponding
adjustments as needed.
• Changes in the 2014-15 premiums for liability and workers compensation insurance
coverage have been identified. Liability premiums are estimated to increase by
$13,000 and workers compensation premiums are estimated to increase by $42,500
over the 2014-15 budget amounts. The forecast contains the assumption that liability
premiums will increase 5% per year and workers compensation premiums will
increase 8% per year for a total additional cost of $122,000 per year compared to the
last 5 year forecast update. These estimated increases are in line with those provided
by the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority.
• The retrospective computation for the liability program for periods including 2011-12
resulted in a retrospective charge in the amount of $39,300. The retrospective
computation for the workers’ compensation program for periods including 2011-12
resulted in a retrospective charge in the amount of $442,700. Neither of these
amounts were anticipated and both amounts have been added to the forecast for 2014-
15. Due to the nature of the retrospective computation process, it is difficult to
forecast the results of future retrospective computations, which are completed each
year by the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority which is the City’s insurance
provider.
• The California Public Employees Retirement System provided 2014-15 employer rate
information indicating that first tier programs for miscellaneous and safety employees
will see rate increases next year above the amount included in the 2013-15 financial
plan. The additional rate increase over the budgeted amount is .45% for
miscellaneous members and 1.2% for safety plan members. For the 2nd tier safety
plan, the rate increase is .16% and for the fire 2nd tier plan, the increase is .56%. The
additional cost related to these rate changes is approximately $221,000. This amount
was included in the forecast and carried through the remaining years. Later this month
the CalPERS Board is set to consider further modifications to the employer rates
based on recommended changes that reflect lower mortality rates and greater numbers
of employees retiring. No assumption for the possible changes resulting from their
possible actions, which would take effect in 2016-17 has been included in the 5 year
forecast. Last April the CalPERS Board approved changes to the actuarial
assumptions used to set employer rates by enacting a plan to fully fund all retirement
programs within 30 years. This process limits the period of time that certain rate
increases are phased in to 5 years and uses a 25 year period to recognize market gains
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Interim Update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast Page 5
and losses. The effect of this change in assumptions will be seen in 2015-16 but no
firm employer rates have been established. The 5 Year Fiscal forecast reflects the
value of a 1% increase ($280,000) in the employer rates as a self-assessed charge
starting in 2014-15 raising this to 2% ($560,000) in 2015-16. In later years, the
forecast reflects the $560,000 as an on-going cost. The forecast does not reflect
estimated savings from future hiring that will place new employees into either the 2nd
tier and 3rd tier retirement plans that have employer rates that are much lower than the
original plan for public safety employees. Once the city has more history with these
programs, future forecasts will reflect the estimated savings.
• During a review of the 5 year forecast the amount of the remaining payments owed to
the California Joint Powers Authority for the retrospective deposit which was
formally recognized last year was adjusted to the amounts actually negotiated last
June. It was noted that the 2015-16 installment payment had not been included in the
last 5 year forecast due to the assumption that it would be paid out of the Insurance
Benefit Trust fund using the reimbursement received from the county when it
returned overpaid property tax administration fees. The additional cost reflected in
2015-16 is $429,000.
• Support of capital programs has been reflected in the 5 Year Forecast as presented in
June 2013. Additional investments may be recommended in the future and those will
be reflected at that time.
3. Use of one-time funds above the 20% Reserve
As part of the City’s long term financial sustainability strategy ongoing expenditures are only
recommended when there are ongoing budget resources available to pay for those costs. Funds
that are one time in nature are available for one-time expenditures. Based on the changes
incorporated into the General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast and after consideration of the costs
associated with the supplemental funding requests, there is $5,810,000 remaining in the General
Fund reserve in excess of the 20% required reserve.
In addition to the supplemental funding requests received, staff is proposing the following as
possible uses of the remaining amount of the excess reserve over the 20% level:
$3.0 million to pay down unfunded liabilities. This could be applied either to the $24 million
side-fund liability that exists in the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
safety program or the retrospective deposit balance in the amount of $2.025 million that exists at
the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority. Further analysis with regard to the CalPERS
side-fund amount and options will be brought back to the City Council in April.
$1.7 million to backfill for Measure Y revenues in 2014-15 if needed. As staff indicated in its
report to the City Council on January 21st and the Council concurred, one of the options to be
considered for preserving services in 2014-15 in the event that the Measure Y revenue stream
does not continue beyond March 2015 would be to use a portion of the existing reserve amount
that exceeds the 20% level.
$435,000 for street paving and the paving of the Sinsheimer stadium parking lot.
o Additional funding is needed in the street rehabilitation and reconstruction account to more
fully fund paving in Areas 6 and 7, including the completion of required ADA curb ramps in
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Interim Update to the 5-Year Fiscal Forecast Page 6
the project area. This additional funding would help complete the neighborhood paving
needs in these areas.
o The Sinsheimer Parking Lot project budget was reduced in the 13-15 Financial Plan by
$50,000. In addition, increased requirements relative to the Municipal Stormwater Permit
result in a current project deficit of $80,000.
$250,000 to be set aside as a matching grant future use in acquiring land at 40 Prado Road
for the homeless services center as proposed by Community Action Partners of San Luis
Obispo County (CAPSLO). This assumes that other agencies, including the county and the
newly formed Homeless Foundation of San Luis Obispo County contribute their fair share. The
amount of the city’s contribution could be reduced depending on the final tally of contributions
provided by other cities in the county. Yet this set-aside may be used to achieve this aspect of
the Homeless Major City Goal if required.
$250,000 to be used to begin the city hall reconfiguration to provide an elevator for public
use and to consolidate two public service counters on the main floor.
$100,000 for the creation of an employee development and leadership program in
conjunction with the county. The City is in discussions with the County of San Luis Obispo
regarding the possibility of collaborating to provide a cost effective and progressive approach to
leadership development for the two organizations (City and County). Collaborating with the
County allows the City to participate in providing a three-tiered leadership development model
that includes supervisory, management, and executive academies with classroom training,
experiential learning activities, guest speakers, and coaching. The model would be provided
through a group of consultants based on proven public sector competencies and regularly
evaluated for effectiveness. While certain aspects of the leadership development program may
be tailored for City or County specific needs, the economy of scale offered by this collaboration
allows both organizations and our community to benefit from a program that otherwise would
not be affordable for the City. Staff is requesting $100,000 of the one-time funds in excess of
policy reserve to be designated for the purpose of “seeding” this program. Staff is in
preliminary discussions with the County and consultant and therefore, does not have a complete
estimate of costs and timeline for roll-out but is confident this amount will get the program up
and running.
ATTACHMENT
1. General Fund Five Year Fiscal Forecast 2013-18
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FEB 1 8 2014
i awaicouncit memo
panbum
city of san Luis oBispo, finance anb i.t, aepaRtment
DATE: February 18, 2014 AGENDA
CORRESPONDENCE
TO: Mayor & Council Members Date �_ Item#
VIA: Katie Lichtig, City Manager
FROM: Wayne Padilla, Finance Director
SUBJECT: Updates made to the 5 Year Fiscal Forecast have been reflected in the reprinted
document which is attached
After the agenda report regarding the 5 Year Fiscal Forecast was published, there were a number
of changes made to the Community Services supplemental funding request that were covered in
a separate Council Correspondence. This item provides the City Council with an update to the 5
Year Fiscal Forecast to reflect the changes made to the original funding request.
The changes made are described below:
Forecast Development Review Fee Revenues increased by $210,000 in 2013 -14
Limited Term Costs have increased by $115,400 in 2013 -14
Limited Term Costs have been reduced by $130,600 in 2014 -15
*this corrects a prior overstatement of costs contained in the original 5 Year Fiscal Forecast
Due to the timing of the release of this information, a copy of this document will be provided at
tonight's meeting.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have by calling me at 781 -7125 or by
e -mail at wpadilla()slocity.org.
HNnformation memos \memo on 2 -18 -14 6 yr forecast \5 yr forecast update for 2- 18- 14.docx
GENERAL YEAR FORECAST:
2010 -11
2011 -12
2012 -13
2013 -14
MID YEAR FORECAST
Actual
Actual
Actual
Adopted
2013 -14 2014 -15
2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18
2013 -15 Financial Plan
REVENUES & OTHER SOURCES
Taxes
43,698,500
45,944,237
49,125,900
49,051,300
1 50,857,300 52,055,496
53,794,325 55,499,525 57,268,435
Subventions, Grants & Transfers In
2,454,400
2,017,699
2,748,900
1,778,000
2,532,200 1,518,521
1,549,441 1,581,134 1,614,588
Service Charges
4,987,100
6,285,300
6,194,500
5,437,700
6,870,450 5,964,799
6,078,144 6,119,315 6,161,225
Other Revenues
900,600
6,233,527
884,000
641500
380,000 385,025
390,125 395,302 466,857
Total Revenues
52,040,600
60,480,7.63
58,953,300
56,908,500
60,639,950 59,923,841
61,812,035 63,595,276 65,511,104
EXPENDITURES *
Staffing Costs, net of reimb. transfers and est. savings
34,719,800
36,272,500
36,407,800
36,135,262
36,658,207 37,566,845
38,724,674 39,850,736 40,930,442
Operating Programs Non- staffing costs (net of estimated savings)
9,994,100
10,939,655
12,175,100
13,356,038
13,620,574 13,549,346
14,142,640 14,126,217 14,751,785
SOPC Request Ongoing - Fire Vehicle Mechanic
55,689 157,120
161,048 165,074 169,201
SOPC Request One Time - Fire Commodities
26,000
SOPC Request One Time - Development Review
863,800 113,400
SOPC Request Ongoing - Development Review
50,100 130,600
133,865 137,212 140,642
Transfers & Other Uses
5,532,900
12,492,108
7,014,000
7,249,700
7,267,885 8,002,139
8,230,524 8,392,376 9,519,034
Total Recurring Expenses
50,246,800
59,704,263
55,596,900
56,741,000
58,542,255 59,519,450
61,392,751 62,671,615 65,511,104
Fund Balance, Beginning of Year
11,114,100
12,907.900
13,684,400
181725.969
18,937,700 11,161,295
12,369,685 11,788,969 12,712,631
Revenues Over (Under) Expenditures
1,793,800
776,500
3,356,400
167,500
2,097,695 404,390
419,284 923,662 0
One Time Fund Balance Adjustment
1,896,900
SUBTOTAL FUND BALANCE END OF YEAR, BEFORE ONE TIME EXPENSES
12,9071900
13,684,400
18,937,700
18,893,469
21,035,395 11,565,685
11,788,969 12,712,631 12,712,631
ONE TIME EXPENSES APPROVED AT ADOPTED BUDGET
Skate Park
1,226,300
1,226,300
IT Replacement Fund Support
500,000
500,000
One Time SOPCs (Operating)
70,000
70,000
Investment in Major Facility
500,000
500,000
Prior Year Encumbrances
1,768,200
Total One Time Expenses From Fund Balance
2,296,300
4,064,500
SOPC ONE TIME REQUESTS FROM RESERVES ABOVE 20%
Quickest Route
20,600
Special Projects Temporary Staffing
54,000 196,000
Set Aside for Addressing Unfunded Liabilities (CaIPERS and /or GPIA)
3,000,000
Backfill for Measure Y Sunset If Needed
1,700,000
Street Paving and Sinsheimer Park Paving
435,000
Homeless Services Center Land Purchase Set Aside
250,000
City Hall ADA and Administration Reconfiguration (minimum estimate)
250,000
Employee Development and Leadership Collaboration
100,000
Total SOPC Requests from Fund Balance
I
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5,809,600 196,000
Ending Fund Balance
12,907,900
13.684,400
18,937,700
16,597,169
11,161,295 11,369,685
11,788,969 32,712,631 12,712,631
Reserve @ 20% of Operating Costs
8,942,800
9,160,900
10,070,220
9,912,273
10,653,300 10,342,700'
10,632,400 10,855,800 11,198,400
Adjust for Debt Svc Reserves
(602,800)
(331,600)
(331,600)
(331,600) (331,600
(331,600) (331,600) (331,600)
Adjust for Encumbrances & Carryover Reserve (if applicable)
(2,279,271)
(1,768,200_)
(_1,756,000)
Reserve Abave /(Below) Policy Level
*
3.96%12LL
1.641,429
6,767.680
4,597,296
176,395 695,385
824,969 1,525,231 i,i82,fi31
Revenue rind expense forecast details are included on schedules 2 -4.
-
.Sr'l pdtilP 1
2/18/20144:25 PM
GENERAL , • FORECAST: '
2010 -11
2011 -12
2012 -13
2013 -14
MID YEAR FORECAST
Actual
Actual
Actual
Adapted
2013 -14 2014 -15
2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18
2013-15 inancia Pan
REVENUES & OTHER SOURCES
Taxes
Sales Tax+ In -lieu (Based on "effective" 1% tax rate)
12,098,600
13,289,950
14,242,200
14,515,500
15,238,900 15,391,289
16,053,114 16,639,508 17,260,133
Measure Y 1/2% Note: 2014 - 15/15 -16 Estimates assume renewal
5,616,300
6,237,468
6,493,800
6,600,000
6,684,000 6,964,728
7,152,776 7,367,359 7,595,747
Sales Tax -Proposition 172
271,300
307,429
327,700
284,200
338,900 350,423
362,337 374,656 387,395
Property Tax
8,441,100
8,367,088
9,176,600
8,740,800
8,761,000 8,892,415
9,114,725 9,342,594 9,576,158
Property Tax in lieu of VLF
3,551,100
3,492,361
3,533,200
3,586,200
3,645,700 3,736,843
3,830,264 3,926,020 4,024,171
Transient Occupancy Tax
4,844,200
5,222,004
5,572,400
5,749,400
5,990,300 6,289,815
6,589,330 6,888,845 7,188,360
Utility Users Tax
4,592,300
4,584,055
4,916,100
4,756,000
5,356,000 5,516,680
5,682,180 5,852,646 6,028,225
Franchise Fees
2,352,100
2,462,349
2,552,300
2,523,000
2,525,900 2,563,789
2,602,245 2,641,279 2,680,898
Business Tax
1,797,800
1,837,548
2,055,300
2,116,200
2,116,600 2,169,515
2,223,753 2,279,347 2,336,330
Real Property Transfer Tax
133,700
143,985
256,300
180,000
200,000 180,000
183,600 187,272 191,017
Subventions, Grants & Transfers In
Vehicle License Fees
205,600
45,752
19,300
Gas Tax/TDA/TBID Transfers In
1,658,400
1,407,600
1,374,500
1,446,300
1,380,300 1,236,800
1,267,720 1,299,413 1,332,867
Other Subventions & Grants
590,400
564,347
1,355,100
331,700
1,151,900 281,721
281,721 281,721 281,721
Service Charges
Development Review Fees
1,668,000
2,453,773
2,595,300
2,143,700
3,557,300 2,574,300
2,577,565 2,580,912 2,584,342
Recreation Fees
1,300,700
1,741,676
1,747,900
1,519,200
1,577,450 1,608,999
1,641,179 1,674,003 1,707,483
Other Service Charges
2,018,400
2,089,851
1,851,400
1,774,800
1,735,700 1,781,500
1,859,400 1,864,400 1,869,400
Other Revenues
Fines & Forfeitures
171,400
174,331
159,700
167,300
156,000 158,340
160,715 163,126 165,573
Interest Earnings and Rents
549,900
588,451
230,200
324,200
179,000 181,685
184,410 187,176 189,984
Bond Proceeds
5,386,300
-
Other Revenues
179,300
84,445
494,100
150,000
45,000 45,000
45,000 45,000 111,300
Total Revenues
52,040.600
60,480,763
58,953,400 1
56,908,500
60,639,950 59,923,841
61,812,035 63,595,276 65,511,104
Schedule 2
2/18/20144:28 PM
GENERAL YEAR FORECAST: 2013-18
2013 -14 2014 -15
2015 -16
2016 -17
Retiree Health Adjustment
173,200 200,000
2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13
2013 -14
CJPIA Retro Payment
MID YEAR FORECAST
CJPIA Ongoing Rate Increase
Actual Actual Actual
Adopted
2013 -14
2014 -15
2015 -16
2016 -17
2017 -18
2013 -15 Financial Plan
EXPENDITURES
Staffing Costs, net of reimb. transfers and est. savings *
34,719,800 36,272,500 36,407,800
36,135,262
36,658,207
37,566,845
38,724,674
39,850,736
40,930,442
Operating Programs - Non - staffing costs (net of estimated savings)
9,994,100 10,939,655 12,175,100
13,356,038
13,620,574
13,549,346
14,142,640
14,126,217
14,751,785
SOPC Request Ongoing - Fire Vehicle Mechanic / Fire Commodities
55,689
157,120
161,048
165,074
169,201
SOPC Request One Time - Fire Commodities
26,000
SOPC Request One Time - Development Review
863,800
113,400
SOPC Request Ongoing - Development Review
50,100
130,600
133,865
137,212
140,642
TRANSFERS
Transfers to Golf, CDBG
372,800 53,564 45,000
53,100
71,285
81,200
81,200
81,200
81,200
Bond Costs /Defeasance /New SOPCs
5,778,500
Debt Service **
3,023,200 2,437,244 2,772,600
2,760,200
2,760,200
2,954,602
2,999,753
2,989,805
2,806,921
Transfer to Debt Service Fund - CJPIA Retro payment
-
429,537
429,537
429,537
429,537
Capital Improvement Plan - Equipment Replacement (Fleet)
- 500,000 500,000
408,600
408,600
532,600
623,951
623,951
823,951
Capital Improvement Plan - Equipment Replacement (IT)
200,000
565,500
565,500
967,100
165,458
165,458
700,000
Capital Improvement Plan - Major Facility Replacement
602,700
602,700
551,400
345,000
480,000
780,000
Capital Improvement Plan - All other CIP /Open Space
2,136,900 3,722,800 _ 3,496,400
1 2,859,600
2,859,600
2,485,700
3,585,625
3,622,425
3,897,425
'Total Recurring Expenses
50,246,800 59,704,263 55,596,900
56,741,000
58,542,255
59,519,450
61,392,751
62,671,615
65,511,104
ONE TIME EXPENSES APPROVED AT ADOPT BUDGET
Skate Park
1,226,300
1,226,300
IT Replacement Fund Support
500,000
500,000
One Time SOPCs (Operating)
70,000
70,000
Investment in Major Facility
1
500,000
500,000
Prior Year Encumbrances
1,768,200
Total One Time Expenses From Fund Balance
2,296,300
4,064,500
SOPC ONE TIME REQUESTS FROM RESERVES ABOVE 20%
Quickest Route
20,600
Special Projects Temporary Staffing
54,000
196,000
Set Aside for addressing unfunded liabilities (CaIPERS and /or CJPIA)
3,000,000
Backfill for Measure Y Sunset If Needed
1,700,000
Street Paving and Sinsheimer Park Paving
435,000
Homeless Services Center Land Purchase Set Aside
250,000
City Hall ADA and Administration Reconfiguration (minimum estimate)
250,000
Employee Development and Leadership Collaboration
100,000
Total SOPC Requests from Fund Balance
5,809,600
196,000
* Staffing and Benefits Changes From Current 2013 -14 Mid Year Review
2013 -14 2014 -15
2015 -16
2016 -17
Retiree Health Adjustment
173,200 200,000
200,000
200,000
CJPIA Retro Payment
481,977
CJPIA Ongoing Rate Increase
55,528
121,828
121,828
CaIP €RS Retirement Costs
221,281
221,281
221,281
2/18/20144:35 PM
** Debt Service Changes From 2013 -15 Financial Plan
2013 -14 2014 -15
Lease of Public Safety Mobile Computers 185,000
Lease of Fire Engine 117,000
2004 Lease Bonds Retired (295,000)
LOVR Financing 371 pM
Schedule 3
PROJECTION FACTORS 2
Last L
Historical Trends A
Actual _ FORECAST ASSSUMPTIONS
DEMOGRAPHICS
Annual Percentage Changes
Population 0
0.70% 0
0.50% 0.30% 0
0.60%
Housing Units 0
0.80% 0
0.70% 0.70% 0
0.80%
Inflation 3
3.10% 2
2.10% 2.60% 2
2.50%
Compound Population &Inflation 3
3.80% 2
2.60% 2.90% 3
3.10%
KEY REVENUES
S a
ax i us a es). ase ine 8.70/ 1.60% 3.80% 4.70% 4.50% 7.00% 1.00% 4.30% 3.65% 3.73%
2014 -15 is last year of in- lieu; true -up process is completed
Garden Street Terrace: 1.5% 104,800 104,800
Net Increase 7.00% 1.00% 4.30% 3.65% 3.73%
Property Tax (Assessed Value) 2.26% -2.30% 2.20% 2.30% 1.17% 2.39% 1.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
TOT: Baseline (tied to TBID Strat. Plan) 7.30% 2.20% 3.90% 4.40% 6.71% 7.50% 5.00% 4.76% 4.55% 4.35%
Beacon Forecast 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Utility Users Tax 3.70% 3.50% 3.10% 3.50% 7.24% 8.95% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Beacon Forecast 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00%
Franchise Fees 4.20% 8.40% 4.30% 2.70% 3.65% -1.03% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Business Tax 6.60% 1.90% 3.70% 4.50% 11.85% 2.98% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Beacon Forecast 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Transfers -In 2.50% 2.50% 2.57%
Development Review Fees 37.07% - 27.63% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13%
Recreation Fees -9.75% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
EXPENDITURES
Operating Programs: Staffing actual actual 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Estimated savings -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.DD%
Operating Programs: Non - staffing 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%
Estimated savings -2.00% - 2,00%
Debt Service: Existing Debt
Capital Improvement Plan - All other CIP /Open Space CIP costs reflect CIP requests submitted by departments and recommended by the CIP Review Committee for 2013-
14,2014-15
Schedule 4
2/18/20144:25 PM
14,2014-15
Schedule 4
2/18/20144:25 PM
FFEB I_� D
5 2014
mas counck 111E111012an6ui11
DATE: February 24, 2014
TO: Mayor Marx & Members of the City Council
FROM: Joe Lamers, Budget Manager y�- �•
VIA: Katie Lichtig, City Manager V
CC: Wayne Padilla, Finance Director
SUBJECT: Updates made to the 5 Year Fiscal Forecast
AGENDA
CORRESPONDENCE
Date Item# 91
This item provides the City Council with an update of the Five Year Fiscal Forecast based on actions
taken at the City Council hearing on 2/18/14. The revisions made are to reflect approved one -time uses
of the General Fund excess reserve over the 20% level.
The changes that were made are described below:
- Funding for street paving and paving of Sinsheimer Stadium Parking Lot was reduced from
$430,000 to $300,000. This includes $220,000 devoted to street paving and $80,000 for paving
of Sinsheimer Stadium parking lot.
- $100,000 has been allocated to the Mission Plaza Master Plan. This replaces $100,000 that was
proposed for the development of an employee development and leadership program.
- $196,000 in costs were added in 2013 -14 to support the second year second year of Special
Projects Temporary Staffing, related to the Development Services supplemental funding
request. The 5 Year Fiscal Forecast previously charged this cost to 2014 -15.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions by calling me at 781 -7132 or by email at
j lamers[a,slocity.org.
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