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HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 6d - Annual Water Supply and Demand Assessment and Rescinding of Emergency Drought Declaration Item 6d Department: Utilities Cost Center: 6001 For Agenda of: 5/16/2023 Placement: Consent Estimated Time: N/A FROM: Aaron Floyd, Utilities Director Prepared By: Nick Teague, Water Resources Program Manager SUBJECT: ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASSESSMENT AND RESCINDING OF EMERGENCY DROUGHT DECLARATION RECOMMENDATION 1. Receive and file the City’s 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment; and 2. Adopt a Draft Resolution entitled, “A Resolution of the City Council of the City of San Luis Obispo, California, rescinding Resolution No. 11353, returning the City of San Luis Obispo to the Monitor Stage of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan .” REPORT-IN-BRIEF Results of the state-mandated 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment (Attachment A, Reading File) and the City’s Water Projection Model show that the City has more than ten years of water available under a drought scenario1 with current water supply and demand conditions and future predictions. Monthly water supply surpluses signify that the City would not need to enter a water shortage emergency in any month during the Current Year2 (2023) or during a following hypothetical Dry Year3,4. Record breaking rainfall during the winter of 2022-2023 has replenished reservoir storage locally and throughout most of California, leading Governor Gavin Newsom to terminate most drought-related Executive Orders. Because the City’s reservoirs are currently full and the State no longer requires the City to be in Stage 2 (“Watch Stage") of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan, staff is recommending the City adopt a resolution (Attachment B) rescinding Resolution No. 11353 (2022 Series) and returning the City to the “Monitoring Stage.” Efforts to promote voluntary water conservation to extend the availability of existing water resources will 1 A “drought scenario” is a period when rainfall is less than normal for several weeks, months, or years, the flow of streams and rivers declines, water levels in lakes and reservoirs fall, and the depth to water in wells increases. 2 The Current Year for this Water Supply Assessment covers the twelve months from July 2022 through June 2023. 3 A “Dry Year” is one in which precipitation is as low as the driest year on record. 4 The Current Year and Dry Year periods for this Water Supply Assessment are concurrent with the City’s 2023 and 2024 Fiscal Year periods, respectively. Page 119 of 1165 Item 6d continue to be promoted by staff as the City remains focused on long-term conservation goals. POLICY CONTEXT The City’s Water Supply and Demand Assessment was prepared in accordance with General Plan Water and Wastewater Element (WWE) Program A5.3.15 and meets WWE Goal A.5.1.26 and the State’s reporting requirements (Water Code §10632.1)7. The Water Supply and Demand Assessment provides an update on the City’s current water supply and water demands and assesses the potential of a water supply shortage for a hypothetical dry year. DISCUSSION Background The City’s Water Supply and Demand Assessment provides an update on the City’s current water supply and water demands and assesses the potential of a water supply shortage for a hypothetical dry year. This report summarizes the results of that assessment, provides detailed information on the City’s current water supply and demands, and provides projections for the City’s long-term water supply reliability. Current Water Supply Status The City’s three water supply reservoirs (Nacimiento, Salinas, and Whale Rock) are located in different local watersheds in northern San Luis Obispo County and along the north coast (Figure 1, Map of Reservoirs and Rain Gauge Locations). Having geographically diverse reservoirs allows the City to maximize the capture of rainfall at various locations within San Luis Obispo County (Figure 1 and Table 1). As shown in Table 1 below, during Fiscal Year 22-23 (FY 2023)8, all of the watersheds that provide water to City’s reservoirs received rainfall that was significantly greater than average exceeding historic records. Reservoir storage volumes as of March 31, 2023 are shown below in Table 2. All of the City’s reservoirs are at or near storage capacity. During the extreme precipitation event on January 9, 2023, storage in Salinas Reservoir exceeded 100 percent of capacity and water began to flow over the spillway. Salinas Reservoir remain s above 100 percent of capacity as of the writing of this report. The volume of water in Whale Rock Reservoir exceeded 100 percent of capacity on March 10, 2023, and water flowed over the spillway through mid-April. 5 WWE Program 5.3.1: An update on water supply accounting and demand projections will be presented to the City Council as part of the annual Water Resources Status Report. 6 WWE Goal A.5.1.2: Accurately forecast future water demand for planning purposes. 7 Water Code §10632.1 directs urban water suppliers to evaluate their water supply reliability for the current year and one dry year. 8 For the purposes of this report Fiscal Year is defined as the period July 1 through June 30. Fiscal Years are named using the calendar year at the end of the period (e.g. Fiscal Year 2023 is July 1, 2022 through June 30, 2023). Page 120 of 1165 Item 6d Table 1: Rainfall during the 2022 and 2023 Fiscal Years (in inches) Rainfall Measurement Location Watershed Annual Average Rainfall1 FY 2022 Total Rainfall FY 2023 Total Rainfall2 Rocky Butte Nacimiento Reservoir 34 29 96 Hwy 46 W 7 Mile Whale Rock Reservoir 17 12 NA3 SLO Reservoir San Luis Obispo Creek 16 13 51 Salinas Dam Salinas Reservoir 16 13 52 Notes: 1. Calculated using data from fiscal years 2013 through 2022. 2. Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 rainfall data as of April 1, 2023. 3. Instrument error resulting in incomplete data set for FY 2023. Figure 1: Map of reservoirs and rain gauge locations. Page 121 of 1165 Item 6d Table 2: Current Reservoir Volumes and Change in Volume from Fiscal Year 2022 Reservoir Total Volume (acre-feet) Available City Allocation (acre-feet)1 Total Percent Capacity Change from FY 2022 Acre-feet Percent of Total Capacity Nacimiento 353,665 4,459 94% 248,415 +66% Whale Rock 38,967 20,350 100% 9,165 +24% Salinas 24,661 22,661 103% 9,754 +41% Notes: 1. As of April 1, 2023. As shown in Table 3, the City’s FY 2022 demand was 5,263 acre -feet. The per-capita demand during this period was 99 gallons per capita per day (GPCD). Eighty-five percent (85%) of this demand was supplied by Nacimiento Reservoir, 10% was supplied by Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs, and 5% was supplied by recycled water. The volume of water used from Nacimiento Reservoir in FY 2023 was greater than any previous year, helping to accomplish the City’s strategy to utilize first this annually allocated resource to preserve water in Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs, which provide long-term storage. Table 3: City Water Supply Used by Source during Fiscal Year 2022 (in Acre-feet1 and Percent of Annual Demand) Nacimiento Reservoir Whale Rock Reservoir2 Salinas Reservoir Recycled Water Groundwater3 Total City Water Demand 4,460 100 426 277 0 5,263 85% 2% 8% 5% 0% 100% Notes: 1. Values are rounded. 2. Water delivered to Cal Poly State University is excluded from the City’s water demand, as Cal Poly has its own water storage and water diversion rights in Whale Rock Reservoir. 3. Groundwater was not used for potable purposes during FY 2022. Available Supply Water Resource Availability is calculated based on WWE, Section 3 Water Resource Availability. Using this method, the water resource availability for FY 2023 is 10,183 acre- feet (refer to Table 4, below), which includes 5,482 acre-feet of dependable yield from Nacimiento Reservoir, 4,910 acre-feet of safe annual yield from Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs, 291 acre-feet of Recycled Water (2022 calendar-year usage9) and subtracts 500 acre-feet due to estimated reservoir capacity losses from siltation (WWE Policy A4.2.2, Accounting for Future Siltation). 9 WWE Policy A 7.2.2: Accounting for Recycled Water. The City will add total recycled water usage from the prior year to the City’s water resource availability on an annual ba sis. Page 122 of 1165 Item 6d Per WWE, Section 5, the City accounts for water supplies necessary to meet three specific community needs:  Primary water supply – the amount of water needed to serve the City’s current and future residential and non-residential water demand.  Reliability reserve – the buffer for future unforeseen or unpredictable long-term water supply impacts.  Secondary water supply – the amount of water needed to meet peak water demand periods or short-term loss of City water supply sources. Table 4: Fiscal Year 2023 Annual Water Supply Availability (in acre -feet) Total Water Availability Primary Water Supply Reliability Reserve Secondary Water Supply 10,183 7,496 1,249 1,438 Water Supply Disruptions High streamflow in the Salinas River corresponding to a large precipitation event on January 9, 2023 exposed and damaged the pipeline that delivers water from Nacimiento Reservoir to the City, disrupting delivery of water to the City. At the date that thi s report was published, deliveries of water from Nacimiento Reservoir to the City are expected to resume in September 2023; repair of the pipeline is under jurisdiction of the County of San Luis Obispo. This disruption in delivery of water from Nacimiento Reservoir has required greater than anticipated utilization of water from Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs to meet water demands. The Water Supply and Demand Assessment provides details on how the City will meet estimated demands without exceeding the saf e annual yield of Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs; ensuring that the reservoirs remain a reliable long-term water supply. Water Demand During FY 2022 the City registered 4,743 acre -feet of water use at metered locations (Table 5). The largest demand for water in FY 2022 was for residential use (63%) and the second largest demand for water was for commercial, industrial, and institutional uses (22%). Demand for potable irrigation, non-potable (recycled water) irrigation, and recycled water for construction purposes were each less than 10% of the total demand. About 500 acre-feet of water (9 percent of the City’s water supply) was lost to distribution system leaks and other distribution system processes. The City’s water loss is less than the national average of about 15%. Year-to-date (July-February) metered data for FY 2023 shows similar demand patterns as FY 2022. The breakdown of metered water use in the City by sector is as follows: Page 123 of 1165 Item 6d Table 5: City Water Demand by Sector During the 2022 and 2023 Fiscal Years (in acre-feet) Fiscal Year Residential Commercial, Industrial, Institutional Landscape Irrigation (Potable)1 Landscape Irrigation (Recycled) Construction (Recycled) Total Metered Use FY 2022 63% 22% 8% 5% 1% 4,743 FY 2023 (year-to- date)2 64% 24% 7% 5% <1% 2,917 Notes: 1. Landscape irrigation represents potable water use measured at dedicated landscape meters for multi-family, commercial, industrial, and institutional properties. 2. July 2022 through February 2023. Water Shortage Assessment The City utilizes a Water Projection Model to test both hypothetical and actual water demand scenarios and to forecast how long water supplies will sustain the community under specific conditions. The Water Projection Model accounts for the storage in the City’s surface water reservoirs, other available resources, current and projected demands, and climate data. The model uses historical hydrologic information (rainfall, evaporation, inflow) based on the average for the worst drought period (2012 to 2014). Per the City’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP), the Water Supply and Demand Assessment utilizes the Water Projection Model to determine current demand, future demand, and any associated water shortages. Additionally, Water Code Section 10632.1 requires the City to evaluate water supply and demand on a monthly basis for the current fiscal year (FY 2023, Current Year) and a hypothetical dry year (Dry Year) so that potential seasonal water shortages are highlighted and accounted for. Results of the Water Projection Model show that the City has more than ten years of water available, and the results of the Water Supply and Demand Assessment show that the City has monthly water surpluses under a drought scenario with current water supply and demand conditions. Therefore, the City does not expect to enter a water shortage emergency in any month during the Current Year or following, hypothetical Dry Year. Drought Executive Order N-5-23 In response to the recent Statewide drought, Governor Gavin Newsom signed Executive Order N-7-22 on Monday March 28, 2022, ordering the State Water Resources Control Board (Water Board) to consider water use restrictions. Order N-7-22 directed the State Water Resources Control Board to adopt emergency regulations that include d a requirement that each urban water supplier enact water shortage response actions for a shortage level of up to twenty percent. . Water use restrictions were implemented by the Water Board on May 24, 2022, which required the City to enter Stage 2 of the WSCP (“Watch Stage”). Per Stage 2 of the WSCP, the City increased programs that encourage voluntary water conservation, examined available alternative water so urces, and implemented time of use irrigation restrictions (only allowed 7:00 PM – 7:00 AM). Page 124 of 1165 Item 6d In response to the historic precipitation events this winter, the Governor signed Executive Order N-5-23 on Friday March 24, 2023, terminating specific provisions of several State of Emergency Proclamations and Executive Orders relating to drought dated between April 21, 2021 and March 10, 2023. The Order eases some drought measures while maintaining others. Most importantly, Order N-5-23 terminates Order N-7-22. Accordingly, staff are recommending that the City Council rescind Resolution No. 11353 (2022 Series), which designated the City as being in Stage 2 of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan. Rescinding this resolution will affirm that the City is no longer experiencing any type of water shortage (greater than 5 years of available water supply10) and that all water conservation regulations will revert back to those identified in the “Monitor Stage” of the WSCP. Under the “Monitor Stage”, the City maintains existing water conservation staffing levels and budget that supports meeting internal water efficiency goals and regulatory requirements for water conservation, including ongoing public outreach. Continued Communication Related to Weather Extremes and Local Conditions The Utilities Department continues to revise its communication related to water supply conditions to provide succinct information that is easily accessible to the community. While the wet winter has provided the City with full reservoirs, it is important to ensure that the community is aware of local water supply conditions and that water conservation is equally important in wet or dry years to ensure that water supplies are available to meet current and future demands. Previous Council or Advisory Body Action On August 16, 2022, the Council adopted Resolution No. 11353 (2022 Series) entitled, “A Resolution of the City of San Luis Obispo, California, declaring that the City enter into Stage 2, the “Warning Stage”, of its 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan.” This resolution authorized staff to implement water demand reducing measures outlined within Stages 1 and 2, the “Warning” and “Watch” stages, of its WSCP. Public Engagement The City will provide communications regarding current water supply conditions and the results of the Water Supply and Demand Assessment by posting information and documents on the Utilities Department website. Additionally, this information will be incorporated into future public communications material (social media posts, radio ads, and Farmers Market handouts) and into future water supply planning. A copy of this report and the Water Supply and Demand Assessment will be sent to the City Planning Commission upon receival by City Council. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment is not a "project" under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), because the action does not involve any commitment 10 The City’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan directs the City to remain in the “Monitoring Stage” as long as there are greater than 5 years of available water supply. Page 125 of 1165 Item 6d to a specific project which may result in a potentially significant physical impact on the environment, as defined by State CEQA Guidelines, Section 15378. Rescinding Resolution No. 11353, which would return the City to the “Monitor Stage” of its WSCP, is categorically exempt from environmental review pursuant to State CEQA Guidelines Section 15307 (Actions by Regulatory Agencies for Protection of the Environment) because: the action is consistent with State Executive Order N -5-23 that rescinds specific authorities related to drought mitigation measures based on the current status of drought conditions in the State; the City would remain compliant with the WSCP based on the State Executive Order and the status of the City’s water supply as described above; and, water conservation measures identified for the “Monitor” stage of the WSCP would remain in effect including maintenance of existing water conservation staffing levels and budget that supports meeting internal water efficiency goals and regulatory requirements for water conservation and ongoing public outreach. The monitoring and maintenance of the City’s water supply (a natural resource) and compliance with the WSCP, which identifies specific procedures for protection of the environment, is therefore statutorily exempt from CEQA. FISCAL IMPACT There are no fiscal impacts associated with the recommended action. ALTERNATIVES 1. Council could decide not to receive and file the 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment and provide direction to staff on desired modifications. Staff does not recommend this alternative as the report was prepared in compliance with General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element Policy A5.3.1 and satisfies the requirements of California Water Code §10632.1. 2. Council could direct changes or request additional information and Staff could return to a future meeting date. 3. Council could decide not to adopt the Draft Resolution entitled “A Resolution Rescinding Resolution No. 11353, Returning the City of San Luis Obispo to the Monitor Stage of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan”. Staff does not recommend this alternative as the City’s water supplies are estimated to provide greater than ten years of water to the community and the facts therefore sufficient to warrant a declared water shortage, outside of the state requiring such action. ATTACHMENTS A - 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment B - Draft Resolution rescinding Resolution No. 11353 (2022 Series) Page 126 of 1165 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment For the Time Period July 1, 2022, through June 30, 2024 Whale Rock Reservoir and Spillway. Page 127 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 2 I. INTRODUCTION California Water Code (CWC §10632.1.)1 directs urban water suppliers (Suppliers) to conduct an Annual Water Supply and Demand Assessment (Water Supply Assessment) for the purpose of (i) evaluating its water supply reliability for the current year and one subsequent dry year and (ii) generating and submitting an Annual Shortage Report by July 1 every year starting July 1, 2022. The procedures for conducting a Water Supply Assessment shall include the following: (A) The written decision-making process that an urban water supplier will use each year to determine its water supply reliability. (B) The key data inputs and assessment methodology used to evaluate the urban water supplier’s water supply reliability for the current year and one dry year, including all of the following: (i) Current year unconstrained demand, considering weather, growth, and other influencing factors, such as policies to manage current supplies to meet demand objectives in future years, as applicable. (ii) Current year available supply, considering hydrological and regulatory conditions in the current year and one dry year. The annual supply and demand assessment may consider more than one dry year solely at the discretion of the urban water supplier. (iii) Existing infrastructure capabilities and plausible constraints. (iv) A defined set of locally applicable evaluation criteria that are consistently relied upon for each annual water supply and demand assessment. (v) A description and quantification of each source of water supply. The City’s 2023 Water Supply Assessment was prepared in accordance with the General Plan, Water and Wastewater Management Element, Policy A5.3.1.2 The methods for calculating water supply and water demand have been modified to match the reporting requirements of the Water Supply Assessment and are described below. II. DECISION MAKING PROCESS The CWC does not specify the type of year the Suppliers should use to do the Water Supply Assessment (Calendar or Fiscal). However, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) recommends that the one Dry Year begin in July.3 For this Water Supply Assessment, which will be submitted by July 1, 2023, the Dry Year will therefore cover the twelve months from July 2023 to June 2024. Each subsequent Water Supply Assessment will define the Dry Year period as July 1st of the Water Supply Assessment year through June of the next calendar year. The Current Year for this Water Supply Assessment will cover 1 Cal. Water Code §10632.1. can be accessed at: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=WAT&sectionNum=10632 2 The City’s General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=6649 3 The State of California’s Water Supply and Demand Assessment Draft Guidance states “Characteristic of a dry year is at the discretion of the Supplier, but it should be adequately defined and ideally align with one of the WSCP water shortage levels. The assumed Dry Year conditions are often based on a previous historic dry year, such as the driest year on record. Suppliers presented their defined historic Dry Year in their UWMP Table 7 -1. For the purpose of this Guidance, the Dry Year data will be applied over the twelve-month period beginning July 1st (the due date of the current Annual Shortage Report).” Page 128 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 3 the twelve months from July 2022 through June 2023. The Current Year and Dry Year periods for this Water Supply Assessment are concurrent with the City’s 2022 and 2023 Fiscal Year periods, respectively. The City utilizes a Water Projection Model to test both hypothetical and actual water demand scenarios and to forecast how long water supplies will sustain the community under specific conditions. The Water Projection Model accounts for the storage in the City’s surface water reservoirs, in conjunction with other available resources (i.e., groundwater and recycled water), needed to meet the City’s water demand. The model uses historical hydrologic information (rainfall, evaporation, inflow) based on the average for the worst drought period (2012 to 2014). Other data included in the model are: a. Water entitlement b. Current reservoir levels/storage c. Average gallons per capita per day community water demand d. Rainfall e. Temperature f. Evaporation g. Existing population h. Estimated population growth Utilizing the Water Projection Model as part of its water supply management strategy, the City can foresee whether a water supply shortage is anticipated in any given year and the severity of a shortage based on the availability of the City’s different sources of supply and water demand trends. The City uses the Water Projection Model to study the potential impacts of various intensities of drought conditions, including increased air temperature and evaporation rates, along with decreased precipitation. Per the City’s 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan, the Water Supply Assessment will utilize the Water Projection Model to determine current demand, future demand, and any associated water shortages.4 Water supply and demand are presented in the units of acre-feet (AF). Annual available supply is determined using existing methods (General Plan Water and Wastewater Management Element (WWME), Section 3).5 Annual demand for the purposes of estimating Current Year and Dry Year demand is determined using a modification of the methods described in the City’s method for determining Primary Water Supply (WWME, Section 5) as described below. Current Year monthly demand is determined using actual metered data when available; however, for the months when metered data have not been collected, demand is calculated using the methods described in this report. III. WATER SUPPLY REALIABILITY EVALUATION Description and Quantification of Each Water Supply Source Per the General Plan Water and Wastewater Management Element, Policy A2.2.1, the City uses multiple water sources to meet its water supply needs.6 The City has four primary water supply sources: Nacimiento Reservoir, Whale Rock Reservoir, Salinas Reservoir, and recycled water. The City prioritizes using contractual water supply from Nacimiento Reservoir first, with Whale Rock Reservoir and Salinas Reservoir used as needed to meet the City’s overall potable water demand, while recycled water is used 4 The City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showpublisheddocument/30334/637575513697770000 5 The City’s General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=6649 6 General Plan, Water and Wastewater Management Element, Program A 2.2.1, states “The City shall utilize multiple water resources to meet its water supply needs.” Page 129 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 4 as a non-potable source for irrigation and construction purposes within City limits. A comprehensive upgrade to the City’s Water Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) is currently underway and will increase the volume of recycled water available for use in the future. Additionally, groundwater serves as the City’s fifth supplemental water source. Substantial work efforts are being made to better understand the City’s groundwater supplies and how they may be fully utilized in the future. Nacimiento Reservoir In 1959, the San Luis Obispo Flood Control and Watershed Protection District (San Luis Obispo District) entered into an agreement with Monterey County Flood Control and Water Conservation District (now Monterey County Water Resources Agency) to secure rights to 17,500 AF of water per year (AFY) from Nacimiento Reservoir. Nacimiento Reservoir is located entirely within San Luis Obispo County, California (County), and was built by Monterey County Flood Control and Water Conservation District who continues to control reservoir ownership and operations. Nacimiento Reservoir has a storage capacity of 377,900 AF and serves the purpose of abating seawater intrusion in the groundwater aquifers of the Salinas River Valley, while also providing flood protection and groundwater recharge for the Salinas Valley. Of the San Luis Obispo District’s entitlement, 1,750 AFY have been designated for uses around the lake, leaving 15,750 AFY for allocation to other areas within the County of San Luis Obispo. Water is delivered via a 45-mile pipeline from Nacimiento Reservoir to participating agencies and cities. The “dependable yield” from Nacimiento Reservoir is the contractual amount of water that the City has rights to from Nacimiento Reservoir. The City’s original amount contracted for was 3,380 AFY. Engineering studies, environmental impact reports, dependable yield analyses, and preliminary design reports were completed to ensure water needs within the County were met. In 2004, the County requested interested agencies to approve the contractual agreements for participation in the Nacimiento Project. The four initial project participants included the cities of San Luis Obispo and Paso Robles, the Atascadero Mutual Water Company, and the Templeton Community Services District. All of these agencies executed participation agreements with San Luis Obispo County for entitlements of water which totaled 9,630 AF. In 2004, the County Service Area 10A in Cayucos became a project participant securing 25 AFY. On June 29, 2004, the San Luis Obispo City Council authorized participation in the Nacimiento Water Project for the delivery of the original 3,380 AF of water. In 2004, the County Service Area 10A in Cayucos became a project participant (25 AFY). In March 2016, the City Council approved the addition of 2,102 AFY from Nacimiento Reservoir to the City’s water supply. This addition brought the City’s total Nacimiento Reservoir allocation to 5,482 AFY. With uncertainty of future climatic conditions, regulation, and aging infrastructure, the additional supply of Nacimiento water to the City’s portfolio reduces pressure on the use of water supplies in the Whale Rock and Salinas reservoirs, extending these stored supplies during future critical water shortages. During the worst-case drought on record in the region (2012 to 2014), Nacimiento Reservoir remained a resilient water supply capable of providing a consistent and reliable source of water for San Luis Obispo County. To confirm the prior analysis with more recent data, the City reviewed rainfall and inflow data from 2013 which was the driest year on record. Over that year, Nacimiento Reservoir received 35,000 acre-feet of inflow. Though this is significantly below the average inflow into the reservoir, the San Luis Obispo District’s entitlement could still be met if inflow remained at this level due to the District’s primary rights. High streamflow in the Salinas River corresponding to a large precipitation event on January 9, 2023, exposed and damaged the pipeline that delivers water from Nacimiento Reservoir to the City, disrupting delivery of water to the City. At the date that this report was published, deliveries of water from Nacimiento Reservoir to the City were expected to resume in September 2023. This disruption in delivery Page 130 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 5 of water from Nacimiento Reservoir is accounted for later in this report and points to the importance of the City having a multi-source supply portfolio. Whale Rock Reservoir Whale Rock Reservoir is located on Old Creek Road approximately one-half mile east of the community of Cayucos, California. The project was planned, designed, and constructed under the supervision of the California State Department of Water Resources (DWR). Construction took place between October 1958 and April 1961. The reservoir is jointly owned by the City of San Luis Obispo, the California Men's Colony, and the California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly). These three agencies form the Whale Rock Commission which is responsible for operation and administration of the reservoir and associated water deliveries. Day-to-day operation is provided by the City. Whale Rock Reservoir is formed by an earthen dam and had capacity to store an estimated 40,662 AF of water at the time of construction. The dam is 266 feet tall with a crest length of 850 feet and crest width of 30 feet. The top of dam elevation is 232.2 feet. The Reservoir covers an area close to 600 acres. In 2022, the maximum storage capacity is 38,967 AF. The City owns 55.05 percent of the water storage rights at the reservoir (22,364 AF). The remaining water storage rights are apportioned between the two State agencies with Cal Poly owning 33.71 percent and the California Men’s Colony owning 11.24 percent. Over the life of the Whale Rock Reservoir and dam, the lake has filled to capacity and the spillway has been used 13 times, most recently spilling in March 2023. The Whale Rock pipeline is approximately 17 miles long, connecting the reservoir to the member agencies, and terminating at the City's Water Treatment Plant. The design capacity of the pipeline is 18.94 cubic feet per second (approximately 8,500 gallons per minute). The line consists of modified pre- stressed concrete cylinder pipe at most locations. Cement mortar lined steel pipe is used at creek crossings and junctions. Salinas Reservoir The Salinas Reservoir (also known as Santa Margarita Lake) is located on the upper Salinas River, approximately nine miles southeast of the community of Santa Margarita. The project was originally built by the War Department to ensure an adequate water supply for Camp San Luis Obispo, as well as the City of San Luis Obispo. The dam and appurtenances were declared surplus by the War Department on April 14, 1947 and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers assumed responsibility for the facilities. On July 11, 1947, the Corps entered into an agreement with the San Luis Obispo District for the operation and maintenance of the dam and related facilities. The City has an agreement with the Corps for use of the reservoir, as well as a water right permit to divert water from the Salinas River for storage within the reservoir. Salinas Reservoir is formed by a concrete arched dam. Immediately following construction, the Page 131 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 6 reservoir had an estimated storage capacity of 24,000 AF with a surface area of 793 acres, and a drainage area of 112 square miles. Safe Annual Yield, or the maximum amount that could be withdrawn each year without drawing the reservoir below its minimum pool constraint, for Whale Rock and Salinas reservoirs was updated in 2018 following the addition of data from the most recent drought that ended in 2016 and analysis of three independent climate change models by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) as part of the 2014 Regional Transportation Plan, and Nature Communications. As a result of siltation since the original construction, the reservoir capacity has been reduced and accounted for in the Safe Annual Yield for Whale Rock and Salinas reservoirs. Water is conveyed from Salinas Reservoir through 48,700 feet (9.2 miles) of 24-inch diameter reinforced concrete pipe to a three million gallon regulating reservoir at the Santa Margarita booster pump station near the northerly base of Cuesta Grade adjacent to Highway 101. The pipeline is designed to flow by gravity from the Reservoir to the regulating reservoir when the lake level is above the elevation of 1,267 feet. A booster pump station at the base of the dam, consisting of two horizontal centrifugal pumps, is capable of maintaining the rated flow of 12.4 cubic feet per second (approximately 5,565 gallons per minute) when the water surface elevation falls below 1,267 feet. Accounting for Siltation Siltation at reservoirs is a natural occurrence that can reduce the storage capacity over long periods. The reduction of available storage reduces the safe annual yield of the reservoirs. Siltation at reservoirs varies depending on factors such as rainfall intensity and watershed management practices. Climate change could have an impact on future water availability in the form of increased siltation in reservoirs resulting from wildland fires which could affect the safe annual yield of the City’s reservoirs. Numerous studies and reports addressing siltation at Salinas Reservoir have been completed. The latest study, conducted by the County of San Luis Obispo in 1990, indicated that the siltation rate is on the order of 40 AFY.7 The Whale Rock Reservoir Bathymetric Survey and Volumetric Study was completed in May 2013. The study concluded that sedimentation has reduced reservoir capacity by 4.2% in 52 years, but this impact, considering 52 years of sedimentation is relatively minimal. The City has policies and programs in the WWME to anticipate the loss of storage at Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs. WWME Policy A 4.2.2 7 A summary of the results of the siltation study done at Salinas Reservoir can be found in the City’s General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element, Section 4 at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=6649 Page 132 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 7 relates to Accounting for Future Siltation.8 The policy states “The City will account for estimated safe annual yield losses at Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs through 2060 by deducting 500 acre-feet of available water supplies to account for these future losses.” The siltation rate will be updated as information becomes available from subsequent siltation analyses. Accounting for siltation of reservoirs contributes to the overall reliability of the City’s water supply portfolio as it ensures that the City is planning for this occurrence. Siltation at Nacimiento Reservoir does not need to be accounted for in The City’s water supply portfolio calculations because the contractual right for San Luis Obispo County agencies is not dependent on reservoir capacity. Recycled Water The City’s Water Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) produces over 3,200 AF of disinfected tertiary- treated effluent per year. A minimum of 1,810 AF is discharged to San Luis Obispo Creek annually to provide satisfactory habitat and flow volume for fish species (steelhead trout) within the Creek environment. The balance makes up the City’s available recycled water resource which is available for approved uses. A consistent flow of wastewater to the WRRF enables the City to produce a volume of recycled water that exceeds current seasonal demand for landscape irrigation. The distribution and delivery of recycled water is via a pump station located within the WRRF. The pump station does not have backup power during a power outage. However, because power outage events have been infrequent, the City’s recycled water supply is considered a reliable, non-potable water supply. The primary use of recycled water in the City is for landscape irrigation with 75 percent of the City’s recycled water demand occurring from May through October. The City began issuing annual construction water permits in July 2009. Permit holders have access to recycled water for dust control and compaction on construction sites in the City. The City has four metered wharf head hydrant filling stations located throughout city limits. During calendar year 2022, 291 AF of recycled water was used for landscape irrigation and construction water. The City has identified a “seasonal surplus” of recycled water available in excess of required discharge to San Luis Obispo Creek (4.96 AF per day as required by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, National Marine Fisheries Service in 2005) for landscape irrigation. As only a limited amount of landscape irrigation takes place from November to April (seasonal off-peak period), more than 4 AF per day of recycled water is available during the seasonal off-peak period. An upgrade of the WRRF is underway, which will accommodate the City’s buildout and maximize recycled water production. These upgrades will enable the City to maximize beneficial use of recycled water, including consideration of either direct or indirect potable reuse in the future. Until potable reuse is implemented, the City is focused on expanding the use of recycled water within City limits to help offset potable water use. Per the City’s 2017 Recycled Water Master Plan, recycled water use is projected to increase by 10 AF per year. 8 The City’s General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=6649 Page 133 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 8 Groundwater Although the City suspended using groundwater for potable purposes in April 2015, the City has maintained its groundwater wells in an operable, stand -by position should the use of groundwater be needed. In July of 2020, the City received a nearly $2 million planning-phase grant, funded through Proposition 1, to study Tetrachloroethylene (PCE) contamination of the groundwater basin. This study aims to provide a more detailed understanding of the extent of PCE contamination and to identify potential remediation options for the City to fully utilize it’s groundwater pumping opportunities. The planning phase of the project was completed in 2022 and an additional $5.9 million implementation- phase grant was awarded in 2023. The implementation phase will result in the construction or outfitting of at least two new production wells with treatment systems to provide the City with an additional source of potable water, while simultaneously removing contaminated groundwater from the groundwater basin. Several new monitoring wells planned for installation in the implementation phase will provide an understanding of changing groundwater conditions resulting from renewed groundwater pumping. In January 2022, the City and the County of San Luis Obispo, acting as Groundwater Sustainability Agencies, submitted a draft of the Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the San Luis Obispo Valley Groundwater Basin to the Califo rnia Department of Water Resources (DWR). The GSP was a result of several years of work conducted to better understand the hydrology of the basin and will be instrumental in guiding sustainable use of groundwater in the basin, including the City’s utilizat ion of groundwater as a source of supply. The GSP estimates a groundwater surplus (recharge minus withdraws) of approximately 700 AFY for the portion of the groundwater basin underlying the City . Assessment Methodology: Locally Applicable Evaluation Criteria Water supply reliability is the City’s ability to meet the water needs of its customers under varying conditions. The City estimates annual Water Supply based on Water and Wastewater Management Element, Section 3. The City’s fiscal year 2022-2023 water supply that was estimated using this method is shown in Table 1. This method incorporates Safe Annual Yield from Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs as determined through the City’s Safe Annual Yield Model, the City’s contractual amount of water from Nacimiento Reservoir (Dependable Yield), the prior Calendar Year volume of Recycled Water utilized by the City, and reduction in reservoir storage caused by siltation as directed in WWME Policy A 4.2.2. The values shown in Table 1 are preliminary estimates that can change with regulatory variability, climate conditions, and other factors that may affect the City’s water supplies and customer water uses.9 As described in Chapter 6 of the City’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), the City assesses water supply reliability by analyzing the hydrological variability of the City surface water reservoirs (Salinas, Whale Rock, and Nacimiento). This analysis is done using the City’s Water Projection model and applies worst-case drought conditions according to guidelines set forth in the UWMP plan documentation. 9 The City’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan can be accessed from the California Department of Water Resources, WUEdata Portal at: https://wuedata.water.ca.gov/uwmp_plans.asp?cmd=2020 Page 134 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 9 Table 1: Estimated Fiscal Year 2022-2023 Annual Water Supply Water Resource Acre-Feet Description Nacimiento Reservoir 5,482 Dependable Yield 1 Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs 4,910 Safe Annual Yield 2 Recycled Water 291 2022 Annual Usage 3 Siltation from 2010 to 2060 (500) WWME Policy A 4.2.2 4 10,183 Total Availability5 NOTES: 1. Dependable Yield is the contractual amount of water the City has rights to from Nacimiento Reservoir. 2. The City’s Safe Annual Yield model was updated in 2018. 3. The quantity of recycled water included (291 AF) is the actual prior year’s usage (calendar year 2022) per General Plan Water and Wastewater Management Element Policy A 7.2.2. 4. Reservoir siltation is a natural occurrence that reduces storage capacity over long periods, resulting in the reduction of safe annual yield. 5. Preliminary estimate that can change with regulatory variability, climate conditions, and other factors that may affect the City’s water supplies and customer water uses. The City accounts for annual demand, or the water supplies necessary to meet community needs, using the methods detailed in the General Plan Water and Wastewater Management Element (WWME), Section 5.10 The amount of water needed to serve the City’s future residential and non-residential water demand is termed the primary water supply. The primary water supply is calculated using the build-out population identified in the General Plan, Land Use Element (2014) and the maximum allowed per capita water use under Senate Bill X7-7, which is 117 gallons per capita per day (GPCD).11 For this Water Supply Assessment, Current Year population (2022) and Dry Year population (Current Year population plus one percent) are used in lieu of the build-out population when calculating total annual demand. When utilizing the Water Projection Model to estimate future water supply and demand, GPCD decreases in accordance with the 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP). For example, water demand is calculated using an initial value of 117 GPCD and decreases by ten percent (corresponding to a ten- percent decrease in water use) to 105 GPCD when available supply is less than 5-years of estimated annual demand. This ten percent reduction is in alignment with the demand reduction that the City projects it would achieve from conservation measures outlined in the WSCP. The annual water supply and demand volumes calculated using the methods described above are converted to monthly volumes for the purposes of this Water Supply Assessment so that potential seasonal water shortages are highlighted. Monthly supply and demand volumes are calculated using average monthly demand as a percent of average annual demand for the seven-year period 2016-2022; the period following the previous drought (2015-2017) and including the most recent drought. These monthly average demand percentages are then applied to the annual supply and demand to provide monthly volumes. 10 The City’s General Plan, Water and Wastewater Element is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=6649 11 Senate Bill No. 7 – Water conservation, is available at: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=200920107SB7 Page 135 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 10 Current Year Precipitation and Reservoir Storage Current Year precipitation in the City is above average, leading to increased reservoir storage volumes (Table 2). Average annual precipitation for the previous ten-year period (2012-2021) at the SLO Reservoir station was 16.23 inches (in.). Precipitation is generally greatest in the winter months, November through April, and can be absent in the summer months, May-September. As of March 31, 2023, the Current Year precipitation is 41.87 inches, with 39.37 inches falling between December 1, 2022 and March 13, 2023. For that same December through March period, reservoir storage volumes increased 268,600 AF in Nacimiento Reservoir, 13,072 AF in Salinas Reservoir, and 11,575 AF in Whale Rock Reservoir12. During the extreme precipitation event on January 9, 2023 storage in Salinas Reservoir exceeded 100 percent capacity and water flowed over the spillway. Salinas Reservoir remained above 100 percent capacity through the month of March. The volume of water in Whale Rock Reservoir exceeded 100-percent capacity on March 10, 2023 and water flowed over the spillway. Table 2: Precipitation Measured at the SLO Reservoir Station1 (in inches) Water Year Accumulation (in inches) 2012 12.36 2013 8.50 2014 10.51 2015 19.02 2016 35.14 2017 13.08 2018 26.56 2019 15.59 2020 11.54 2021 10.01 2012-2021 Average 16.23 2022 (October-March) 41.87 Notes: 1. Precipitation data measured at the SLO Reservoir – P (749) station can be found at: https://wr.slocountywater.org/site/?site_id=27&view=51a30d03-3991-46af-9d23-7bc0f56a118f. Current Year Water Supply and Demand Assessment Analysis of the supply and demand data from the previous year allows for a better understanding of how annual demand is met with the available water supplies. As shown in Table 3, the City’s 2021-2022 Fiscal Year demand was 5,263 AF. The per-capita demand, including recycled water, during this period was 99 GPCD. Eighty-five percent (85%) of this demand was supplied by Nacimiento Reservoir, 10% was supplied by Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs, and 5% was supplied by recycled water. The volume of water used from Nacimiento Reservoir in Fiscal Year 2022 was greater than any previous year, helping to accomplish the City’s strategy to utilize an annually allocated resource to preserve water in Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs, which provide long-term storage. 12 Increases in reservoir storage do not account for inflow to the reservoir that was subsequently released from the reservoir for flood protection or beneficial uses. Page 136 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 11 Table 3: City Water Supply by Source during the 2021-2022 Fiscal Year1 (in acre-feet) Nacimiento Reservoir Whale Rock Reservoir 2 Salinas Reservoir Recycled Water Groundwater 3 Total City Water Demand 4,460 100 426 277 0 5,263 85% 2% 8% 5% 0% 100% Notes: 1. Values are rounded. 2. Water delivered to Cal Poly State University at San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly) is excluded from the City’s water demand, as Cal Poly has its own water storage and water diversion rights in Whale Rock Reservoir. 3. Groundwater was not used for potable purposes during Fiscal Year 2021-2022. Current Year available water supply is 8,962 AF; 6,498 AF potable water and 2,464 AF non-potable water (Table 4). In the Current Year the City planned to utilize its water sources similarly to Fiscal Year 2021- 2022 by prioritizing water from Nacimiento Reservoir to preserve or increase storage volumes in Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs. However, the damage to the Nacimiento pipeline, previously detailed in this report, is estimated to prevent the City from using water from Nacimiento from mid-January, 2023 until September, 2023. The City’s Current Year water supply (Table 4) summarizes actual supply volumes delivered to the City’s distribution system for the period July 2022 through February 2023 and estimated supply volumes for March through June 2023. The estimated potable water supply volumes reflect the absence of Nacimiento Reservoir and the increased utilization of water from Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs to meet anticipated demands. Should the actual supply volumes from Whale Rock and Salinas reservoirs match the estimated values, the total volume utilized from those reservoirs would be equal to the safe annual yield. Utilizing a volume less than or equal to the sustainable yield helps to ensure that the reservoirs remain a reliable long-term water supply. The subtraction of 41.67 AF for March through June 2023 represents the City’s methods to account for siltation in the reservoirs (500 AFY evenly divided among twelve months) and ensures that the volume of water used from Whale Rock and Salinas Reservoirs is in alignment with the General Plan Water and Wastewater Management Element (WWME), Section 5. The Current Year estimated potable demand is 6,245 AF. This value is the demand calculated using the 2022 population of 47,653 and per-capita daily demand of 117 GPCD.13 The actual Current Year demand shown in Table 5 (5,603 AF) is lower than the estimated demand because of more efficient water use (93 GPCD calculated using actual data for the period July 2022 through February 2023) and variations in water needs caused by annual climate variations. Therefore, the monthly values estimated in Table 5 are likely conservative estimates of demand that overestimate the actual demand. 13 Population estimate for the City website at: of San Luis Obispo is from the California Department of Finance website at: www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/e1/ Page 137 of 1165 Table 4: Current Year 2022-23 Water Supply, in acre-feet Potable Water Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Nacimiento Reservoir 395 311 369 395 306 275 46 0 0* 0* 0* 0* 2,097 Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs 79 164 78 54 70 125 296 354 793* 816* 854* 885* 4,568 Groundwater 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Siltation from 2010 to 2060 - - - - - - - - (41.67) (41.67) (41.67) (41.67) (167) Total by Month (Potable) 474 475 447 449 376 400 342 354 751* 774* 812* 843* 6,498 Non-Potable Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Recycled Water for non-potable use 36 39 30 27 13 6 3 4 10* 18* 33* 39* 258 Recycled Water available for use 87 87 124 162 137 229 527 272 224* 165* 114* 78* 2,206 Total by Month (non-potable) 123 126 154 189 150 235 530 276 234* 183* 147* 117* 2,464 Notes: 1. * Denotes estimated values. 2. Values are estimated assuming an annual potable water supply of 7,608 acre-feet. 3. Values are estimated assuming an annual non-potable water supply of 1,917 acre-feet. Page 138 of 1165 City of San Luis Obispo 2023 Water Supply and Demand Assessment Page 13 Table 5: Current Year 2022-23 Water Supply and Demand, in acre-feet Potable Water Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Unconstrained Demand 474 474 446 448 375 400 343 351 478* 561* 610* 643* 5,603 Total Water Supply2 474 474 447 449 376 400 343 354 832* 857* 899* 934* 6,839 Surplus/Shortage 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 354 296 289 291 1,236 % Surplus/Shortage 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 74% 53% 47% 45% 22% State Standard Shortage Level 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Potable Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Unconstrained Demand 36 39 30 27 13 6 3 4 10* 18* 33* 39* 258 Total Water Supply3 87 87 124 162 137 229 527 272 224* 165* 114* 78* 2,206 Surplus/Shortage 51 48 94 135 124 223 524 268 214 147 81 39 1,948 % Surplus/Shortage 142% 123% 313% 500% 954% 3,717% 17,467% 6,700% 2,140% 817% 245% 100% 755% Notes: 1. * Denotes estimated values. 2. Values are estimated assuming an annual potable water supply of 7,608 acre-feet. 3. Values are estimated assuming an annual non-potable water supply of 1,917 acre-feet. Page 139 of 1165 Thanks to a history of collaboration between the City and its community members, community-wide water conservation has resulted in more efficient water use over the last 15 years. This water conservation ethic is supported by City programs such as the water conservation rebate program, school education program, community outreach program, customer water audits, and the retrofit upon sale program. Additionally, the City is improving the water efficiency of its operations by identifying and repairing leaking infrastructure, annually testing and upgrading water meters, and supplying parks with non- potable recycled water. The City will conduct regular assessments of the water conservation program to ensure the most effective use of City resources to provide the greatest water savings. Current Year water supply and demand data are shown on a monthly time-step in Table 5. The values demonstrate the seasonal differences in demand and the supplies needed to meet those demands. As demonstrated by a water surplus (supply greater than demand) in each month, the City is not anticipating entering into a water shortage emergency at any point in the Current Year. Monthly potable surpluses range from 289 to 354 AF, or 45% to 74% of monthly demand. This surplus is a result of drought resilient water supply sources and community-wide water conservation efforts. Additionally, the City makes projections of future water demand using a conservative per capita potable water use rate of 117 GPCD which is the City’s SB X7-7 target, while actual water use within the community is currently less than 100 GPCD and not anticipated to increase beyond minor year-to-year variations over time. The difference between projected demand and actual demand provides a water supply source that acts as a buffer against unexpected changes in supply or demand. The Current Year non-potable demand is 258 AF. This represents recycled water used for irrigation and construction purposes and acts to offset potable water use. The Current Year non-potable supply and demand assessment shows large surpluses for every month and a total annual surplus of about 1,948 AF. The total non-potable supply includes the total volume of water treated at the City’s WRRF minus 4.9 AF per day creek discharge requirement. The non-potable supply and demand assessment provides insight on seasonal fluctuations in non-potable water supply and will assist the City in determining the ability to meet increases in future demands for irrigation and the volume of water available for potable reuse projects. Large non-potable supply volumes in December 2022, January 2023, and February 2023 are the result of above average precipitation and the resulting increase in influent to WRRF. Dry Year Water Supply The City’s estimated Dry Year water supply is 10,895 AF (potable supply plus recycled water for non- potable reuse in Table 6). The Dry Year water supply is equivalent to the Fiscal Year 2022-2023 supply, and reflects a return to normal operations, namely restoration of water supply from Nacimiento Reservoir once repairs are scheduled for completion in September 2023. The City is confident including the full dependable yield from Nacimiento Reservoir in the Dry Year water supply budget because, as mentioned previously in this report, studies and recent drought-period data show that even during extended periods of below average rainfall inflows to Nacimiento Reservoir are sufficient to meet the Citys annual entitlement. The City’s potable and non-potable water supplies are shown on a monthly time-step in Table 6. Page 140 of 1165 Table 6: Dry Year 2023-24 Water Supply, in acre-feet Water Supply Source Additional Detail on Water Supply Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Annual Water Supply Nacimiento Reservoir From dependable yield 0 0 521 501 447 371 346 410 467 481 503 522 4,569 Salinas and Whale Rock Reservoirs From safe annual yield 944 1,001 338 325 290 241 224 266 303 312 327 339 4,910 Groundwater Supplier-produced - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other Decrease in available supply from siltation in reservoirs (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (500) Total Potable 902.3 959.3 817.3 784.3 695.3 570.3 528.3 634.3 728.3 751.3 788.3 819.3 8,979 Recycled Water for non-potable reuse For irrigation and construction uses 43 42 36 31 20 10 5 10 10 18 35 40 300 Recycled Water available for use Produced by the WRRF that is not allocated for non- potable reuse or creek discharge requirements 50 52 92 128 110 151 249 205 224 165 113 77 1,616 Total Non-Potable 93 94 128 159 130 161 254 215 234 183 148 117 1,916 Page 141 of 1165 Dry Year Unconstrained Demand The Dry Year estimated potable demand is 6,937 AF (Table 7). This value is the sum of the metered demand (calculated using the estimated 2023 population of 48,130 and per-capita daily demand of 117 GPCD) and water loss (estimated as 10% of monthly metered demand). As was seen in the Current Year demand shown in Table 5, actual Dry Year demand will likely be lower than the estimated demand because of more efficient water use and variations in water needs caused by annual climate variations. Most of the City’s potable demand is for single-family residential use (42%), followed by muti-family residential (19%), and commercial (19%). Demands for industrial, institutional, and dedicated landscape are each below ten percent of the total annual demand. Single-family and multi-family residential demands are greatest during the period May through October when precipitation is generally low. This suggests that residential demand is driven by outdoor irrigation and the increased demand for irrigation during dry periods. Non-potable water is estimated to offset about 340 AF of potable demand during the Dry Year. Existing Infrastructure Capabilities and Plausible Constraints The utilization of water from three separate reservoirs provides the City with operational flexibility to meet water demands while maintaining optimal storage volumes in each reservoir; however environmental factors can inhibit reservoir storage or prevent utilization of stored water by degrading water quality. While inflow to Nacimiento has proven to be sufficient during the worst drought in recent history, it is conceivable that in the most extreme drought, when precipitation is near zero, that inflow is less than the City’s contractual amount. The City has not typically experienced significant water quality issues with water stored in its reservoirs, but extreme heat and low reservoir levels associated with drought conditions are ideal conditions for biological processes that can impair water quality, including growth of algae, which can lead to secondary water quality complaints related to taste and odor. The City’s water treatment plant is capable of producing water that meets all state and federal standards, even as water quality is deteriorated by ongoing drought. Currently the City satisfies demand without utilizing the full dependable yield from Nacimiento Reservoir because pipeline capacity constraints and treatment operation only allow for the delivery and treatment of approximately 4,500 AFY. Projects are being developed to allow for the full utilization of dependable yield from Nacimiento Reservoir in preparation for future periods when demands require the full available water supply. Should the City need to utilize its full entitlement to Nacimiento for any reason, it could modify plant operation to accommodate this need. Because the City relies primarily on water supplied by its reservoirs, disruptions in delivery of water from a reservoir could be caused by damage to existing infrastructure. While temporary disruptions in water supply availability can be mitigated through utilization of water from the other available reservoirs, prolonged disruptions could result in water shortages. The City is expanding its groundwater program and considering potable reuse of recycled water to provide water supply redundancy and increased operational flexibility in extreme drought scenarios and during disruptions in delivery of water from reservoirs. Additionally, the City produces recycled water that can be used to offset potable demand and during disruptions of water supply. To further increase potable demand offset, recycled water use could be temporarily expanded to meet irrigation needs beyond the current scope. Ultimately the City proactively pursues projects that help gain a better understanding of potential issues that may threaten its water supply and how to mitigate them. Page 142 of 1165 Table 7: Dry Year 2023-24 Unconstrained Demand, in acre-feet Water Use Projected Monthly Water Demand1 Total Annual Demand Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Demands Served by Potable Supplies Single Family 273 288 275 272 235 204 204 198 203 243 265 275 2,935 Multi-Family 104 110 115 120 107 100 108 100 102 111 111 108 1,296 Commercial 123 126 116 118 106 105 104 98 101 107 109 121 1,334 Industrial 19 20 18 17 12 10 9 9 9 13 15 18 169 Institutional/Government 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 53 Landscape 67 70 62 54 37 20 13 21 20 37 55 63 519 Water Loss 59 62 59 59 50 44 44 43 44 52 56 59 631 Total by Month (Potable) 650 681 650 645 551 487 486 473 483 567 615 649 6,937 Demands Served by Non-Potable Supplies2 Landscape 39 39 32 25 15 7 5 9 9 20 34 39 273 Golf Course Irrigation 5 7 4 3 1 1 0 1 1 3 4 6 36 Construction 4 4 3 4 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 5 33 Total by Month (Non-Potable) 48 50 39 32 19 9 6 12 11 25 41 50 342 Notes: 1. Estimated values. 2. Non-potable water treated to tertiary level. Page 143 of 1165 IV. SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS Using the Water Projection Model described above, the City has more than ten years of water available under a drought scenario with current water supply and demand conditions. Analysis of supply and demand data at a monthly timescale shows that the City has ample supply to meet monthly demands for the Current Year and a subsequent Dry Year (Table 8). This is why the City does not expect to enter a water shortage emergency in any month during the Current Year and following hypothetical Dry Year. Monthly potable surpluses range from 54 to 263 AF, or 11% to 54% of monthly demand. Annually, the City is expecting to have a potable water supply surplus of about 2,037 AF (29% of annual demand). This analysis provides valuable insight on the primary uses of water in the City and also highlights periods when disruptions in delivery of water from one or more of the City’s reservoirs would be most impactful to the City’s ability to meet demand. Monthly demands show that water supply is used primarily to meet residential demands. Additionally, monthly demands show the seasonal variation associated with the need for more water in the hot, dry summer months and the need for less water during the cool, wet winter months. Ultimately, the data show that water use within the City is driven by residential use during the dry, summer months, likely in response to outdoor irrigation needs. Because of this, water conservation programs that target reduction in outdoor irrigation may provide the greatest water savings. The supply and demand analysis assumes reliable delivery of available water supplies during drought conditions similar to those experienced in recent history. More extreme drought conditions may present issues that decrease the volume of available water in storage or degrade the quality of water in storage. Available water supply may also be less than estimated because of disruptions in the delivery of available water supplies, whether temporarily caused by minor issues or prolonged disruptions caused by catastrophic events. V. PLANNED SHORTAGE RESPONSE ACTIONS The City does not plan to implement a water shortage response in the Current Year or following Dry Year; however, the City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP) provides a framework for responding to water shortages when necessary.14 The City’s water shortage response is dependent on the ability to temporarily augment supply and/or reduce water demand. The goals of the WSCP are to extend the City’s available water resources long enough to gain another winter rainfall period which could serve to add to reservoir storage. Extending available water resources through water demand reductions provides time for the City to bring on supplemental water supplies to meet demand. The City’s water shortage response would combine a variety of strategies including outreach, indoor water efficiency regulations, and outdoor irrigation restrictions, each increasing in intensity as the shortage persists and the City’s water supplies are further restricted. If necessary, implementation of these restrictions is critical to conserve the City’s water supply for the greatest public benefit regarding domestic use, sanitation, and fire protection. 14 The City’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan is available at: https://www.slocity.org/home/showpublisheddocument/30334/637575513697770000 Page 144 of 1165 Table 8: Dry Year 2022-23 Water Supply and Demand, in acre-feet Potable Water Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Anticipated Unconstrained Demand 650 682 649 645 551 487 488 473 483 567 616 650 6,941 Anticipated Total Water Supply 819 871 837 803 713 584 542 649 746 769 807 838 8,978 Surplus/Shortage 169 189 188 158 162 97 54 176 263 202 191 188 2,037 % Surplus/Shortage 26% 28% 29% 24% 29% 20% 11% 37% 54% 36% 31% 29% 29% State Standard Shortage Level 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Potable Water Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Anticipated Unconstrained Demand 49 50 39 31 19 9 6 12 10 24 41 50 340 Anticipated Total Water Supply 93 94 128 159 130 161 255 216 234 183 148 117 1,918 Surplus/Shortage 44 44 89 128 111 152 249 204 224 159 107 67 1,578 % Surplus/Shortage 90% 88% 228% 413% 584% 1,689% 4,150% 1,700% 2,240% 663% 261% 134% 464% Page 145 of 1165 The City reads water meters monthly to ensure water consumption data is collected for tracking and analysis, as well as meeting state reporting requirements. Monitoring and reporting water use metrics are fundamental to water supply planning and management. Monitoring is essential in evaluating the effectiveness of expected response actions and identifying the need for new actions. While compliance tracking helps to ensure the effectiveness of enforcement programs. To monitor the functionality of the WSCP and ensure effectiveness, staff will track community response to water demand reduction measures, public outreach, enforcement, and other administrative actions at each water shortage response stage. This will include a review of monthly water consumption data for each customer class and evaluation of associated revenue and expenditure impacts. Based on these analyses, staff will recommend program refinements to the City Council as water shortage stages progress. VI. SUMMARY Based on the findings from this Water Supply Assessment, the City does not expect to enter a water shortage emergency and will not need to implement water shortage response actions between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024. In fact, the Water Supply Assessment shows that the City will have a water supply surplus on an annual and monthly timestep. The City will continue to monitor its supply and demand using its Water Projection Model to ensure that any water shortage emergencies may be identified well in advance so that programmatic and operational changes can be made to mitigate their effects. Finally, this Water Supply Assessment assumes reliable delivery of available water supplies during drought conditions similar to those experienced in recent history. Decreases in water availability caused by extreme drought conditions or disruptions in the delivery of available water supplies may create unexpected water shortage emergencies. If such water shortage emergencies arise, the City is prepared to implement its WSCP to extend the City’s available water resources long enough to gain additional winter rainfall periods which could serve to add to reservoir storage or to bring on supplemental water supplies to meet demand. In summary, the City maintains a robust water supply portfolio that can meet current and future demands, including during dry periods. To plan for potential future dry years, the City has secured a multi-source supply that provides reliability and operational flexibility. The City’s estimates of water supply and demand account for both current and future build-out demands to ensure adequate water supply, and the use of conservative estimates provides a buffer that reduces the potential for water shortages even during unexpected disruptions in water supply or greater than expected increases in demand. This buffer is in part to the long-standing history of water conservation by the City and its community members, making water conservation a reliable component of the City’s water shortage mitigation strategy. Additionally, the City is working to expand the use of recycled water within its limits to offset additional potable water use and to develop groundwater and potable reuse programs to provide supplementary sources of potable water supply that provide further operational flexibility during disruptions in water deliveries from reservoirs. Page 146 of 1165 R ______ RESOLUTION NO. _____ (2023 SERIES) A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO, CALIFORNIA, RESCINDING RESOLUTION NO. 11353, RETURNING THE CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO TO THE MONITOR STAGE OF ITS WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN WHEREAS, the State of California received record-breaking rainfall during the winter of 2022-2023; and WHEREAS, on May 24, 2022, the California State Water Board adopted an emergency regulation mandating increased restrictions on water use across the state; and WHEREAS, on August 19, 2022, pursuant to Municipal Code Section 13.07.030, the City of San Luis Obispo City Council enacted Resolution 11353 declaring that the City enter into Stage 2, the “Warning Stage”, of its Water Shortage Contingency Plan and ordering water reducing measures; and WHEREAS, on March 24, 2023, Governor Newsom signed Executive Order N-5- 23, terminating specific provisions of several State of Emergency Proclamations and Executive Orders relating to drought dated between April 21, 2021 and March 10, 2023; and WHEREAS, the City’s total water use is within all water use requirements established by the State of California; and WHEREAS, the City’s water supplies are estimated to provide greater than ten years of water to the community, and are therefore sufficient as to warrant reversion to the “Monitor” stage of the Water Shortage Contingency Plan. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Council of the City of San Luis Obispo that: Page 147 of 1165 Resolution No. _____ (2023 Series) Page 2 R ______ SECTION 1. Declaration. In compliance with State of California water conservation regulations, the City of San Luis Obispo hereby declares that it rescinds the 2022 Resolution No. 11353, returning the City to the “Monitor Stage”, of its 2020 Water Shortage Contingency Plan. Water Shortage Response Stages, attached hereto as Exhibit A. Upon motion of Council Member ___________, seconded by Council Member ___________, and on the following roll call vote: AYES: NOES: ABSENT: The foregoing resolution was adopted this _____ day of _______________ 2023. ___________________________ Mayor Erica A. Stewart ATTEST: ______________________ Teresa Purrington City Clerk APPROVED AS TO FORM: ______________________ J. Christine Dietrick City Attorney IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and affixed the official seal of the City of San Luis Obispo, California, on ______________________. ___________________________ Teresa Purrington City Clerk Page 148 of 1165 Resolution No. _____ (2023 Series) Page 3 R ______ Exhibit A: Water Shortage Response Stages STAGE WATER SUPPLY STATUS1 CITY ACTIONS Monitor 5+ years of available water supply City maintains existing water conservation staffing levels and budget that supports meeting internal water efficiency goals and regulatory requirements for water conservation, including ongoing public outreach. Watch < 5 years of available water supply (up to 10% water shortage) City increases programs that encourage voluntary water conservation including public outreach, rebate programs, and water efficient fixture giveaways. City examines available alternative water sources (groundwater expansion, recycled water filling stations, water purchase agreements, etc.), City modifies internal operations to focus on decreasing water loss and prepares for subsequent WSCP stages. City ceases any short-term outside-City water sales/leases. Warning < 4.5 years of available water supply (up to 20% water shortage) City implements time of use irrigation restrictions (7:00 PM – 7:00 AM). City increases staffing, budget, and outreach to achieve additional voluntary conservation savings while preparing for Alert-Critical stages. Alert < 4 years of available water supply (up to 30% water shortage) City requires mandatory conservation measures including outdoor irrigation restrictions (four day a week watering) and considers a Water Offset Program for new connections. Severe < 3.5 years of available water supply (up to 40% water shortage) City implements Water Allotment Program. Water Offset Program for new connections may be increased (1.5:1 or 2:1 offset ratio). Allowable irrigation reduced to three days per week. Extreme < 3 years of available water supply (up to 50% water shortage) City continues to implement a Water Allotment Program with reduced allotment levels. Water Offset Program for new connections may be increased (1.5:1 or 2:1 offset ratio). Allowable irrigation reduced to two days per week with optional additional measures limiting turf and spray irrigation. Critical < 2.5 year of available water supply (>50% water shortage) City continues to implement a Water Allotment Program at further reduced levels (minimum for public health and safety). Irrigation no longer permitted. Water Offset Program to cease and no new connections permitted. Page 149 of 1165 Page 150 of 1165