HomeMy WebLinkAboutReCurve -_Proposal_for_Better_Buildings_SLO_Existing_Conditions_and_Needs_Assessment_-_Recurve (2)May 5, 2021
City of San Luis Obispo
Bid Number: 2104-001
Better Buildings SLO - Existing Conditions and Needs Assessment
Prepared for:
City of San Luis Obispo
Attn:
Daniel Clancy
dclancy@slocity.org
Please direct questions to:
Matt Burton
VP of Sales and Business Development
matt.burton@recurve.com
Michael Keasey
Business Development Manager
michael@recurve.com
May 5, 2021
Introduction
The City of San Luis Obispo has recently set the incredibly ambitious target of carbon
neutrality by 2035.The Green Buildings Pillar in the city’s latest Climate Action Plan will be
instrumental in achieving this target.The Clean Energy Choice Program for New Buildings is
a great start,ensuring the future buildings will be built with efficiency,electrification,and
carbon goals in mind.However,significant opportunity lies within the city’s existing stock of
buildings to reduce emissions and energy usage.Unlike new buildings at the point of
construction,existing buildings contain a wide array of equipment and usage patterns,
making it difficult to know where to start.One needs a systematic approach for quickly
analyzing readily available data to avoid endless investigation.Recurve’s resource planning
software,combined with targeting analysis and consulting,offers the optimal foundation for
the City to springboard into pilot projects and future programs in collaboration with RENs and
CCAs.
Resource Planning Overview
Recent research makes clear that resource planning for demand-side programs must target
customers with specific usage characteristics to achieve desired load impacts and
cost-effectiveness.Some customers may have little potential for savings from a particular
program,while others present a significant opportunity.You have an opportunity to leverage
customer energy usage data to identify and quantify physical asset deployment and usage
characteristics at a customer level,therefore drawing new insights to inform decarbonization
program design.
In a targeting analysis,Recurve computes a suite of customer usage characteristics,or
“features”based exclusively on pre-program consumption data.These targeting features are
calculated for every customer and range from simple summations (ex.total annual MWh
usage)to normalized metrics (ex.the percentage of usage from cooling)to more complex
load characteristics (ex. baseload, discretionary,evening ramp).
Recurve will work with your team to identify key load shapes and target the individual
customers based on specific technologies that offer the most potential to help achieve your
goals.Recurve will compute a number of customer targeting features for each building.
These features will give you a wealth of information on usage characteristics that are
indicative of the potential for cost-effective demand flexibility interventions.
A few examples of this include:
●High electric and/or gas heating usage and temperature-to-load correlation can often
provide effective beneficial electrification and building decarbonization.
●Steep evening ramps that are exacerbating the duck curve and negative midday
usage from PV are excellent load shifting and behind-the-meter storage candidates.
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●Customers that exhibit high summer peak period usage,summer-to-shoulder usage
ratios,and steep evening ramps,often offer high potential for building shell
measures, HVAC, and load shifting, and demand response.
●Commercial customers with high baseload usage are often good candidates for
refrigeration measures that can drive GHG savings during the night and early morning
hours when there is little or no solar generation.
Targeting Analytics
Recurve develops hourly load shape profiles for all buildings within a particular targeted
service area as well as provides ongoing measurement and verification of demand-side
energy assets.This solution is made possible by two innovations.First,Recurve developed
open-source methods and tools that standardize the development of hourly load profiles
across all building types.These methods have now become officially adopted as part of the
metered-savings protocols and the code has been released under an open-source license
under the governance of the Linux Foundation.Second,Recurve developed a cloud-based
data science platform capable of parallelizing thousands of servers to run the necessary
computations and build queryable data warehouses to manage the volume of data required
of this effort.Hourly load shape impacts are quantified and tracked at the meter level and
mapped to grid assets for full visibility into asset performance.
Recurve’s program optimization algorithm identifies the most important factors related to the
highest drivers of savings.These drivers,such as temperature-to-load correlations,help find
the right measures for the right customers.These parameters can be used to identify future
program participants with similar load archetypes and suitable measures for reducing GHG’s
and saving energy.
The analysis start date will depend on the quality of the data upon receipt.Complete
pre-post data and joinable metadata files (12-month historical meter consumption data and
past project information,if applicable,such as program enrollment date and project
completion date).Additional information that will be useful in targeting specific outcomes
includes metadata such as building type,installed distributed energy resources such as solar,
and other categorical variables that Recurve can use to cluster projects into cohorts as part
of its analysis.
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Targeting Use Case Overview
Multiple recent studies1,2,3 have shown that targeting customers based on AMI data analysis
can dramatically enhance the metered savings of energy efficiency programs.Utilities,RENs,
and CCAs in partnership with local government have an opportunity to leverage customer
energy usage data to identify and market programs to the customers who would benefit the
most from intervention while driving the greatest savings.
In California,both PG&E and SoCal Edison have put the top-performing targeting schemes to
work to optimize their residential pay-for-performance programs.With this step,the
California IOUs will achieve savings goals at a lower cost,enhance the value of those savings
by focusing on peak load reduction,and provide better,more consistent results for
participating customers.
The figure to the right shows the impact
of targeting the distribution of participant
savings for PG&E’s home retrofit
program.The upper panel shows savings
results for the top half of customers,who
were targeted based on their
pre-program summer usage and
normalized temperature-to-load
correlation.The lower panel compares
the results for the remaining half of
non-targeted customers.The results are
clear.
Targeted customers saved nearly 3.5 times more than non-targeted customers.
Similar results are observed when designing and testing targeting schemes for numerous
other programs,including residential and commercial HVAC maintenance,commercial
lighting direct install,and refrigeration measures.A key feature of Recurve’s offering is that
City staff will be able to access the dashboard to manipulate energy data and targeting
dashboards on an ongoing basis, generating new targeting schemes as new ideas arise.
The figure to the left shows the impact that targeting has on load delivered through PG&E’s
Advanced Home Upgrade program.The dots show the average participant’s resource curve
(savings load shape)for annual,summer,and wintertime periods (blue,red,and green
respectively).The solid curves show the average resource curve for the same time periods
3Customer Targeting via Usage Data Analytics to Enhance Metered Savings, 2018 ACEEE Summer Study, A.M.
Scheer, S. Borgeson, R. Kasman et al.
2 Energy Efficiency Program Targeting: Using AMI Data Analysis to Improve At-the-Meter Savings for Small and
Medium Businesses, S. Borgeson, A.M. Scheer, R. Kasman et. al. 2018
1 Customer Targeting for Residential Energy Efficiency Programs: Enhancing Electricity Savings at the Meter,A.M.
Scheer, S. Borgeson, K. Rosendo, 2017
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for customers who were in the top half of summer peak electricity usage and
summer-to-shoulder usage ratio,which is a good proxy for normalized temperature-to-load
correlation.The upshot is clear:by targeting customers with data available at the time of
program planning, savings and peak load reduction are dramatically enhanced.
These customers are also worth dramatically more in terms of avoided marginal hourly
carbon and utility avoided cost,as demonstrated by the example below using hourly nodal
marginal avoided cost data from the CPUC avoided cost calculator,but could be adapted to
any cost stack data through the open-source FLEXvalue Calculator.It will be critical for the
City of San Luis Obispo to target
buildings with the highest potential
for carbon and energy savings to
ensure pilot and program success.
Effective targeting will not only lead
to deeper savings,but also greater
cost-effectiveness within any
demand-side programs.
Understanding individual customer
usage characteristics and orienting
programs toward customers with a
high potential will be an essential
strategy for achieving reliable,cost-effective impacts while also ensuring programs are
serving customers most in need of the interventions.While you may have limited or in many
cases no historical data to back-cast,Recurve will be able to share ground truth load shape
and resource curves (load shape change)for various measures and customer sets that other
utilities have agreed to share in aggregate.
Data Section
In order to perform the analysis, Recurve will need hourly AMI data from the past 12 months
at a minimum. This data can be sent from Central Coast Community Energy or acquired
directly from PG&E with an item 17 data request from Central Coast Community Energy.
Project Team
Recurve brings a host of demand-side program,policy,regulatory,evaluation,and data
analytics experience.Recurve’s team led the CalTRACK V.1.0 and V.2.0 stakeholder process,
which established the fully transparent,open-source analytics methods and implementation
now in use across several states for a variety of evaluation and program purposes.Taken
together,the Recurve team pairs world-class data and analytical capabilities with a deep
knowledge of energy and regulatory landscapes.
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Title-Project Role Education Experience
Carmen Best
Director of Policy &
Emerging Markets
M.S. Land Resources, Energy
Analysis & Policy, University of
Wisconsin-Madison, 2004.
Bachelor of Science in
Environmental Geoscience,
Minor in Political Science,
University of North Dakota,
1997.
18 years of experience that includes:
●Served as Supervisor, Energy Division-Energy
Efficiency Commercial Program & Evaluation Oversight
at the California Public Utilities Commission
●Managed a team of twenty analysts and external
consultants in defining research needs, completed field
evaluation activities including site visits, surveys,bill
analysis, and metering, and informed energy efficiency
policy direction in California and beyond with the results
●Numerous publications (see resume)
Adam Scheer
Director of Customer
Solution
Ph.D in Physics, University of
Colorado-Boulder, 2011.
Master of Science, Physics,
University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, 2006.
Bachelor of Science, Physics,
University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, 2005.
Bachelor of Arts, Chemistry,
Minors in Mathematics and
English, University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, 2005.
More than 10 years of experience in energy efficiency,renewable
energy, and biofuel research
●Served as the Principal, Energy Efficiency Policy and
Strategy for Pacific Gas and Electric Company
●Led incorporation of smart meter data analytics into
PG&E’s energy efficiency portfolio.
●While at PG&E, led authorship of several impactful
whitepapers and conference papers on energy
efficiency evaluation best practices and data-driven
customer targeting to enhance energy savings
●Numerous publications (see resume)
Mariano Teehan
Senior Software
Engineer
Ph.D in Environmental Studies,
University of British Columbia,
2014.
Master of Science, Electrical
and Computer Engineering,
University of British Columbia,
2009.
Bachelor of Science, Computer
Engineering, University of
Waterloo, 2006.
Over 10 years of data science work and report compilations
●Lead engineer for several data ETLs and energy savings
impact evaluations for major utilities
●Serves as the technical lead for the US Dept. of Energy
funded project to assess methods for energy savings
measurement and verification during the post
COVID-19 era
●Leads the Recurve Impact Evaluation process
Dave Yeager
Senior Engineer
Bachelor of Arts, English,
Villanova University, 2002.
Over 15 years of software development work
●Has led the development of Recurve’s data pipeline
since 2016
●Works closely with clients to develop seamless
back-end systems to clean, sort and upload energy
data
●Extensive technical background
Pricing
Recurve is pleased to present discounted pricing below,reflective of the importance of this
work with the City of San Luis Obispo. The following pricing is inclusive of delivering the
scope above and providing Recurve platform access to San Luis Obispo, a critical element of
ensuring a live platform is delivered that enables the City to interact with data and
continually derive additional insights and value.
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Proposal Submittal Form - Recurve
Consultants
The undersigned declares that she or he has carefully examined this RFP, is thoroughly familiar with its
contents; is authorized to represent the proposing firm; and agrees to perform the specified work for the
following cost quoted in full:
Description Cost
Resource Platform (12-month access)
Resource Planner
3,000 vCPU hours / month
ETL + Routine Support up to 10 hours
Implementation and ongoing support of Recurve platform for City of San
Luis Obispo.
$39,600
Support
Up to 120 hours for Resource Planning analysis and delivery of targeted
customers.
$23,040
Total $62,640
Firm Name and Address
Recurve Analytics, Inc.
364 Ridgewood Ave.
Mill Valley, CA 94941
Contact Matthew Burton Phone (512) 694-5236
Signature of Authorized Representative
Date
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May 5, 2021
REFERENCES
Number of years engaged in providing the services included within the scope of the specifications
under the present business name:Five (5)
Describe fully the last three contracts performed by your firm that demonstrate your ability to provide
the services included with the scope of the specifications.Attach additional pages if required. The City
reserves the right to contact each of the references listed for additional information regarding your firm's
qualifications.
Reference No. 1:
Agency Name Pacific Gas & Electric
Contact Name Ben Brown
Telephone & Email (415) 973-1571 b3bx@pge.com
Street Address 77 Beale Street PO Box 770000
City, State, Zip Code San Francisco, CA 94105
Description of services provided including
contract amount, when provided and project
outcome
Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) deployed the first
large-scale pay-for-performance pilot using
CalTRACK metered savings. The pilot started in
2016 with an initial budget of $5 million; in 2018,
PG&E scaled its investment to $25 million. With
more than half of their energy efficiency portfolio
set to be deployed by third parties by 2020,
PG&E’s energy efficiency program team realized
that they needed to make an investment in data
infrastructure to give them the visibility that they
needed to manage their program
implementations.
For its flagship pay-for-performance program,
PG&E relied on Recurve to manage hundreds of
millions of data points to ensure that savings
calculations and monthly payments to
aggregators were transparent and reliable.
Standardizing all their programs on CalTRACK
methods was an important step, as it allowed
staff to compare the cost-effectiveness of one
program to the next directly.
Using Recurve’s advanced metering platform,
PG&E was able to view not just the metered
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savings of each of the buildings in its existing
portfolios, but also the hourly load shapes and
resource curves associated with every completed
project.
Through the Recurve portal, PG&E could track
savings across four different aggregators,
simultaneously and in real-time, and report on
program performance to key stakeholders.
Keeping track of multiple cohorts of participants
was easily accomplished through Recurve’s
portfolio segmentation tool.
Reference No. 2:
Agency Name NYSERDA
Contact Name Kyle Monsees
Telephone & Email (518) 862-1090 ext. 3525
kyle.monsees@nyserda.ny.gov
Street Address 1359 Broadway, 19th Floor
City, State, Zip Code New York, NY 10018-7842
Description of services provided including
contract amount, when provided and project
outcome
The New York State Energy Research and
Development Authority (NYSERDA) is working
with Recurve to deploy $60M in P4P EE funding in
partnership with ConEdison, National Grid, and
PSEG LI. The project used a request for proposal
(RFP) to invite energy efficiency aggregators
("Portfolio Managers") to bid on its new Business
Energy Pro Small / Medium Business
pay-for-performance (P4P) efficiency initiative.
Business Energy Pro will provide energy efficiency
services to small- and medium-sized businesses in
Staten Island and Westchester County, with a
special emphasis on innovative solutions that
aggressively target natural gas consumption in
Westchester.
This pilot compensates providers over three years
for measured energy savings that accrue from a
large portfolio of energy efficiency upgrades and
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operational improvements at small-to-medium
businesses. The winning proposals will deliver at
least 5 percent average whole-building savings for
less than $12/MMBtu of Levelized cost (gas and
electric lifetime savings).
Taking this innovative, market-based approach to
energy efficiency promises to unlock private
capital and project finance to encourage
innovation in how efficiency is delivered to
customers, allowing service providers to deploy
more flexible and comprehensive offerings to
reduce energy use and meet customer needs.
By embracing an “aggregator ” model of P4P,
Business Energy Pro aligns implementers’
interests by offering them a financial reward for
targeting and executing efficiency projects that
deliver more savings than average. The
implementers can pass that value on to
customers in the form of reduced upfront project
costs or other inducements to participate.
NYSERDA's Business Energy Pro program utilizes
the Recurve Platform implementing the CalTRACK
open source methods to calculate and determine
payment for savings.
Reference No. 3:
Agency Name MCE Clean Energy
Contact Name Joey Lande
Telephone & Email (415) 464-6649
Street Address 1125 Tamalpais Ave
City, State, Zip Code San Rafael, CA 94901
Description of services provided including
contract amount, when provided and project
outcome
Recurve actively provides Demand FLEXmarket
program administration to support MCE Clean
Energy with a pay-for-performance load
management program that is technology
agnostic. Aggregators are incentivized based on
an hourly price signal attuned to the avoided cost
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May 5, 2021
values of MCE’s grid operation. This gives price
signals to aggregators to shift energy use away
from times of extreme demand. The Recurve
platform is used to enroll and track projects that
are guaranteed to be cost-effective for MCE Clean
Energy while supporting the resiliency and
decarbonization of the grid. The press release can
be found here (MCE Clean Energy website). Press
articles regarding the program can be found here
(Canary Media) and here (T&D World)
Over 12 aggregators have been enrolled into the
FLEXmarket, many of which are participating in a
utility program for the first time, meeting our goal
of expanded participation. Since launch, project
submission has been consistent enough for MCE
to file a mid-year budget advice letter for
additional/supplemental funding which would
take the original $1.1M budget and supplement it
with an additional $4.8M for a total 2021 budget
of $5.9M. Subsequent program years will now
start at $5.9M for a yearly budget.
The Demand FLEXmarket was scheduled to go live
by Q2 2021, but we launched ahead of schedule
on December 1, 2020.
CURRENT CONTRACTS:
1.
2.
3.
4.
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STATEMENT OF PAST CONTRACT DISQUALIFICATIONS
The proposer shall state whether it or any of its officers or employees who have a proprietary interest in
it, has ever been disqualified, removed, or otherwise prevented from bidding on, or completing a
federal, state, or local government project because of the violation of law, a safety regulation, or for any
other reason, including but not limited to financial difficulties, project delays, or disputes regarding work
or product quality, and if so to explain the circumstances.
■Do you have any disqualification as described in the above paragraph to declare?
Yes ☐No ☑
■If yes, explain the circumstances.
Executed on at _______________________________________ under penalty of
perjury of the laws of the State of California, that the foregoing is true and correct.
______________________________________
Signature of Authorized Proposer Representative
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May 5, 2021 Austin, Texas, USA