HomeMy WebLinkAbout11/04/2003, BUS 3 - FIRST QUARTER 2003-04 FINANCIAL STATUS REPORT council 11-4-03
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CITY O F SAN LUIS OBISPO
FROM: Bill Statler, Director of Finance & Information Technology
SUBJECT: FIRST QUARTER 2003-04 FINANCIAL STATUS REPORT
CAO RECOMMENDATION
Review and discuss the City's financial status through the first quarter of 2003-04.
REPORT-IN-BRIEF
The purpose of this report is to evaluate the City's fiscal condition in light of actual results for
2002-03, fiscal trends since then, and other new information that has emerged since adoption of
the 2003-05 Financial Plan in June 2003.
While we routinely publish quarterly financial reports, we do not usually present them formally
to the Councils we typically wait until the Mid-Year Budget Review for this. However, given
the volatile nature of the City's financial situation, especially in the context of the State's budget
process, we believe that it is important this year to take a formal "re-look" sooner than usual.
As discussed below, while there are a number of "ups and downs," our updated revenue and
expenditure estimates for 2003-05 result in a relative "net wash" compared with the Financial
Plan. Accordingly, we do not recommend any formal action at this time by the Council on any
of the issues raised in this report. If needed, this will be more appropriate at the Mid-Year
Budget Review, when we will have better information about key revenue trends, State budget
actions and any other problem areas that may require corrective action.
DISCUSSION
Summary of Findings
As detailed in Attachment 1, our updated estimates for revenues, expenditures and changes in
fund balance result in a small net revision downward for 2003-05 compared with the adopted
Financial Plan. Based on this update, we project an ending unreserved General Fund balance in
June 2005 of$7,013,800, compared with the Financial Plan projection of$7,158,000. This is a
reduction of$144,200, and reflects an ending fund balance that is 19% of operating expenditures
compared with our policy goal of 20%. Given the many uncertainties that faced us in preparing
the 2003-05 Financial Plan, this reflects a very modest change.
The following is a summary of the "ups and downs" in revenues, expenditures and beginning
fund balance that account for this change:
First.Quarter 2003-04 Financial Status Report Page 2
Table 1. General Fund.First Quarter Review "Ups and Downs"
Changes fron 2003-05 Financial Plan
2003-04 2004-05
Where We're Up
Beginning Fund Balance
Net of Encumbrances&Carryovers 927;600 927;600
Revenues&Sources
Public Safety Sales Tax(Proposition 172) 7,000 7,200 14,200
Business Tax 44;000 45,800 89,800
Real Property Transfer Tax 15;000 15,000 30,000
Investment.Earnings 125,000 100,000 225,000
Fines&Forfetutres 10,000 10,000 20,000
Expenditures&Uses
Reduced Worker's Compensation Costs 89;000 89,000
Where We're Down
Revenues&Sources _
Sales Tax (79,600) (194,500) (274,100)
Transient Occupancy Tax(TOT) (222,800) (233,900) (456,700)
Vehicle License Fees(VLF) (475,200) 50,200 (425,000)
Expenditures&Uses
Increased PERS Costs 1 (384,000) (384,000)
Net Change $440,000 ($584,200) ($144,200)
Updated Revenue and Expenditures Estimates
As reflected above, five factors account for most of the change:
1. Higher beginning fund balance in 2003-04.
2. Reduced workers compensation costs in 2003-04.
3. Reduced estimated revenues from sales tax and TOT (two of our "Top 3" General Fund
revenues) in 2003-05.
4. Reduced VLF revenues in 2003-04 as a result of State budget actions.
5. Increased PERS costs in 2004-05 than estimated.
The following discusses the factors underlying each of the changes.
Beginning Fund Balance for 2003-04:$927,600
As discussed in the fourth quarter financial newsletter for 2002-03, the improved fund balance at
the end of last fiscal year was solely due to greater expenditure savings than projected. After
adjusting for encumbrances of $609,900 and reappropriation carryovers of $229,800,
expenditures were about$1 million (3%) less than estimated. .
First Quarter 2003-04 Financial Status Report _ _ Page 3
As shown below, all departmental expenditures were within budget by type, and reflect
significant "belt-tightening" by the organization. About two-thirds of the underage is directly
attributable to the hiring and training "chill" in place during 2003-04, along with savings in
ventures & contingencies. The remaining balance was due to the successful efforts by the
operating departments to hold the line on costs in light of the fiscal difficulties facing us.
This is especially notable, since departments were not given "targets," but rather, asked to make
their best efforts to reduce costs without adversely affecting core services to our community. In
the final analysis, this "value-based, good stewardship" approach undoubtedly resulted in greater
savings than a more rigid, "formula-based" one.
Table 2. 2002-03'General Fund O eratin Err end, res:Budget Com aced with Actual
91
Expenditures By Type Bud et Actual* Amount Percent
Staffing 26,262,700 25,297,100 965,600 4%
Contract Services 4;572,800 4,186,300 386,500 8%
Telecommunications&Utilities 1,257,900 1,198,500 59,400 5%
Insurance 767,000 767,000 - 0%
Other Operating 2,822,800 2,465,400 357;400 13%
Minor Capital 345,200 312,50.0 32,700 9%
Total by Type 36,0289400 344269800 1,801,600 5%
Reimbursed Expenditures (2,997,500) (2,982,500) (15,000) -1%
Estimated Expenditures Savings (759,900) (759,900) --
Total $32 271000 $317244300 $10269700 3%
*Includes encumbrances($609,900)and carryovers($229,800)totaling$839,600.
While this improved beginning financial condition compared with budget projections is a major
"Plus" factor in updating our estimated ending General Fund balance for 2003-05, it is important
to stress that this is a "one-time occurrence. On the other hand, most of the "downs" are
ongoing.
Reduced Workers Compensation Costs:$89,000 in 2003-04
In July 2003, we were informed by the Central Coast Cities Self Insurance Fund (our insurance
joint powers authority) that the excess insurance carrier for workers compensation reduced its
premium rates for 2003-04, and this would result in lower costs for the City of about $114,000.
Of this amount, $89,000 is allocable to the General Fund (and the balance to other City funds
such as water and sewer). While it is possible that this savings will carry-over into 2004-05, we
have not revised our estimate at this point for 2004-05 given the volatility of the insurance
market.
Reduced Sales Tax Projections:$79,600 in 2003-04 and$194,500 in 2004-05
We have retained our underlying assumption of 3% growth per year for 2003-05, but on a lower
base given actual 2002-03 results. In addition to this growth in our current sales tax base, we
continue to conservatively assume net increases (after adjustments for transfer affects) in 2003-
. � -3
First Quarter 2003-04 Financial Status Report Page 4
04 of$250,000 from Home Depot; and in 2004-05, $500,000 from Costco and $50,000 from the
Copeland Court Street project ($200,000 per-year on annual basis prorated for 25% of the year).
We have changed the assumption for added revenues from the airport area annexation: the
Financial Plan assumed $225,000 in 2004-05, based on $450,000 in net added revenues on an
annual basis prorated for half on the year. While we continue to assume annual revenues of
$450,000, we have reduced the estimate for 2004-05 to $112,500 (25% of the year) based on the
status of the Specific Plan adoption process.
Reduced TOT Projections:$222,800 in 2003-04 and$233,900 in 2004-05
Three factors account for reduced TOT projections:
1. Actual results for 2002-03 were $139,000 less than projected, reflecting an increase of 1%
over the prior year rather than our 5% estimate. This results in a lower base for projections
in 2003-05.
2. We have reduced our growth estimate from 5% to 3% in 2003-04.
3. While we have retained our growth estimate of 5% in 2004-05, it is on a lower base due to
the factors discussed above.
Reduced VLF Revenues Due to State Budget Cuts:$523,000 in 2003-04
As part of the State budget process, the 1998 reduction in VLF rates was rescinded in mid-June
2003. The VLF backfill was also eliminated at the same time, resulting in $4 billion in annual
savings to the State in backfill payments to cities and counties.
While this approach results in no net change in City revenues on an ongoing basis, the
implementation approach left a gap between when the backfill ended in mid-June, and when the
higher VLF revenues from rescinding the rate reductions would be realized. For the City of San
Luis Obispo, the State Department of Finance estimated this shortfall to be $523,000. This
should be a "one-time" cut, and the State agreed as part of its 2003-04 budget to repay this in
2006. (And pigs may fly someday, too.)
Fortunately, our actual VLF revenues came in higher than we projected in 2002-03 by $45,000.
While we are retaining our underlying growth rate of 5% in 2003-05 for VLF revenues, this will
now be on a higher base (excluding the "one-time" gap due to the VLF-backfill cut). Compared
with our original 2003-05 projections, this mitigates the impact of the VLF-backfill cut
somewhat,reducing the net budget impact in 2003-04 from$523,000 to$475,000.
Increased PERS Costs:$384,000 in 2004-05
We based our 200405 estimate for employer retirement contributions to the State-administered
Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) on the best information available to us at the time.
We recently received our employer contribution rates from PERS for 2004-05 as a percent of
payroll costs, summarized as follows compared with our Financial Plan estimates:
3 -4
First Quarter 203-04 Financial Status Report Page 5
Table 3. PERS Employer Contribution Rates for 2004-05
EstimatedActual
Safety (Sworn Police and Firej 32.9% 36.6%
All Other Employees 16.1% 16.8%
Given the volatility of PERS rates over the past several years, these are relatively small changes
on an "order of magnitude" basis. However, they result in increased General Fund costs above
our projections for 2004-05 of$384,000.
Other Revenue Changes
The modest upward revisions in public safety sales tax (Proposition 172), business tax, real
property transfer tax, fines and interest earnings are based on actual results in 2002-03, which
were better than estimated in the Financial Plan..
What's Most Likely to Change?
The following summarizes areas where we are most likely to see changes between the First
Quarter Status Report and the Mid-Year Budget Review.
More State Budget Cuts
Given the State's past track record, continuing budget problems, and the added uncertainties of
the recall and the election of Governor Schwarzenegger, the permutations for serious fiscal
damage to the City by the State are just too many to count. However, two standout from the
crowd:
1. Further VLF reductions. During the recall campaign, Governor-Elect Schwarzenegger
(and most of the other candidates) unequivocally called for the repeal of the VLF ("car tax")
increase. As an example of his strong public commitment to this, he had a wrecking ball
dropped on an old car"to show you exactly what we are going to do to the car tax" at a rally
just before the election. If he fulfills this campaign promise—which will be very difficult for
him to back-away from given his unreserved commitment to do so—this will result in a $1.8
million revenue loss to the City, since VLF is not a State revenue source, but a local one.
This could be mitigated by a new State backfill, but this would make an already huge State
budget gap of$8 billion.grow by 50%, to $12 billion.
Given this, what is the likelihood that Governor Schwarzenegger and the Democratically-
controlled State legislature will agree to backfilling the loss to local government, and thus
worsen the State's fiscal crisis? Legislative leader Senator John Burton offers some insight
to this by declaring that if the new governor proposes to eliminate the VLF increase, "the
legislature will not be willing to backfill local government, and cites and counties will be on
their own."
2. The "triple-flip:' As part of the deficit-financing piece of the State's budget-balancing
actions, effective in 2004-05 the State plans to repeal 50010 of the local 101b sales tax, and then
adopt a new lh-cent sales tax dedicated to repayment of the deficit reduction bonds. The
` l
First Quarter 2003-04 Financial Status Report Page 6
cities and counties would then be "made whole" from increased property tax allocations via
reduced contributions to the Educational Revenue Augmentation Fund (ERAF). The State
will then make-up the difference in lost revenues to the schools through the State General
Fund.
There are many legal, fiscal and administrative problems with this complex, "zero-sum"
swapping of revenues. However, while the "triple flip" results in major structural changes, it
does not result in any added revenues: the State will still have to fund repayment of the
bonds with existing (and deficit-ridden) resources, but it will do so in a way that brings
added confusion to an already muddled situation.
By the mid-year budget review, we should have a better idea of how the new Governor's budget
balancing plans will affect us, and whether the State legislature will go along with them.
Sales Tax
At $11 million annually, this is our "Number 1" General Fund revenue, accounting for about
30% of total sources. As such, even small changes in growth assumptions can have significant
impacts. As discussed above, there are a number of structural and economic challenges facing us
over the next two years. Additionally, we will have better information on the status of the
Costco project—its construction timeline if approved and net revenues—by the mid-year budget
review, which may result in changes to the $500,000 estimate for 2004-05 (upwards or
downwards).
Transient Occupancy Tax
At $4 million annually, this is our"Number 3" General Fund revenue source. As noted above, it
only grew by 1% in 2002-03; and based on limited year-to-date results (up by 2.2% in July and
down by 0.7% in August), it will be a challenge to hit even our reduced growth estimate of 3%
for 2003-04.
Mid-Year Budget Requests
With only the first quarter behind us, it is too soon to identify any problem expenditure areas.
However, based on past experience, there is the possibility that expenditure increases due to
unforeseen circumstances may be needed that cannot be_ accommodated within existing
appropriations.
ATTACHMENT
1. Updated Summary of General Fund Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance
G:Budget Folders/Financial Plans/2003-05 Financial Plan/First Quarter Review/Council Agenda Report
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