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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10/19/2010, B6 - GENERAL FUND FIVE YEAR FISCAL FORECAST: 2011-16 A ROAD MAP TO FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY council Meea°D= 10-19-10 j acEnaa RepoRt CITY OF SAN LUIS O I P FROM: Katie Lichtig, City Manager Mary Bradley, Interim Directo of Fi ante& Information Technology �� SUBJECT: GENERAL FUND FIVE YEAR FIS AL FORECAST: 2011-16 A ROAD MAP TO FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RECOMMENDATION Review and discuss the results of the General Fund Five Year Fiscal Forecast for 2011-16. DISCUSSION Forecast Purpose The purpose of the attached Five Year Fiscal Forecast is to assess the General Fund's ability over the next five years to do four things: 1. Deliver current service levels. 2. Maintain existing infrastructure and facilities based on past funding levels. 3. Preserve the City's long-term fiscal health by aligning operating revenues and costs; and 4. Maintain fund balance at policy levels. It is important to stress that the forecast is not the budget: it doesn't make expenditure decisions; it doesn't make revenue decisions. Its sole purpose is to provide an "order of magnitude" feel for our ability to continue current services, maintain existing assets and fund new initiatives. Ultimately, this forecast cannot answer the question: "can the City afford new initiatives?" This is a basic question of priorities, not of financial capacity. However, the forecast helps identify the key factors affecting the City's fiscal outlook. Additionally, while the forecast doesn't make budget decisions, it gives staff, the Council and the community an early "heads-up" in assessing how difficult making these priority decisions will be. Interim Forecast Following the 2009-10 Mid-Year Budget Review, staff prepared an Interim General Fund Five Year Fiscal Forecast to identify, at a very high level, the financial challenges ahead of us for the foreseeable future. The results of the Interim Forecast, which was presented to Council in May 2010, showed that the City was facing an annual budget gap of about $3 million in 2011-13, $5 million in 2013-15 and $11 million in 2015-16 if Measure Y is not renewed. Since that time, staff has been working to refine the Five Year Forecast for 2011-13 which serves as the basis for preparation of our next two year Financial Plan. The Five Year Fiscal Forecast reflects updated information and more detailed analysis of trends and economic indicators than what was contained in the Interim report. B6-1 General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2011-16 Page 2 Summary of Updated Forecast Findings Forecast Findings The updated forecast indicates that the City is still suffering Tough policy decisions from the economic impacts of the worst recession since the ahead. The budget Great Depression and there is great uncertainty around the process will be about economic recovery that will take place in the next five years. prioritizing The General Fund is facing structural budget gaps into the making trade-offs, and containing costs. future. This means that revenues will be less than expenditures (while maintaining reserves at policy levels) unless something changes. There are two possibilities for change: revenue increases or expenditure reductions. Stated simply, the City must respond to the changing fiscal environment. We can't continue doing things as we've always done them; we must adapt and change. The updated forecast projects a budget gap of about $2,2 million in 2011-12, growing to $3.0 million the following year. This gap grows to $3.5 million per year in 2013-14, due largely to the added costs of Ca1PERS retirement rate increases that are projected. Economic recovery is expected to occur in the 2015-16 fiscal year, which lowers the budget gap to $1.4 million; however, this assumes that voters renew the current general purpose half-cent sales tax measure (Measure Y) by 2014. If it is not renewed, the City will face a budget gap that is about $7.5 million. What's different from the Interim Forecast? The updated forecast includes two key assumption changes from the Interim Forecast. The updated forecast has reset the revenue expectations over the next five years to a lower base, which is reflective of the current economic environment. Although the declines of the past few years appear to have ended, the recovery is likely to be slow. We believe that growth will be very moderate at best, so the revenue base for many of our most important revenue sources has been reset at a lower level. The other significant change from the Interim Forecast has to do with assumptions for operating costs. The Interim Forecast assumed that costs would increase by 2% annually. The current. forecast assumes only legally obligated increases in expenses for 2011-12 and modest increases to reflect population and inflation thereafter. This updated assumption is based on the very low inflation environment currently in place and the downward pressures on salaries from the loose labor market. Any increase in compensation would result in a commensurate increase in the budget gap. For example, each I% in additional wages and benefits for General Fund employees adds about $400,000 to the ongoing budget gap. Short-Term Budget Balancing Actions While the challenges facing the City are significant, there is an "early warning" system in place to provide general strategy in uncertain fiscal times. The City's Fiscal Health Contingency Plan identifies fiscal circumstances that would "trigger" actions identified in the plan. These triggers include adverse results in top revenues and significant variances from projected revenues. Staff B6-2 J General.Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2011-16 Page 3 continually monitors not just the City's revenue and expenditure results, but also the overall economic news. In recent years, as the economic environment declined, the Plan has been triggered and short- term actions such as hiring freezes, travel and training chills, and other budget reductions have been implemented. Because of this, staff is confident that short term solutions can and will be implemented should the need arise in the coming months. However, since the City is facing a long-term problem, it will be necessary to come up with long-term strategies to balance the budget. Long-Term Budget-Balancing Strategies Based on the size of the fiscal challenge facing the City as framed by the forecast results, the long-term strategies to balance our budget will be developed as part of the upcoming 2011=13 Financial Plan. Closing the budget gap will be difficult — and would be much worse without Measure Y revenues. Stated simply, the strategy being pursued is a Council and community- driven balancing of prioritized services, trade-offs of existing services to allow for service. improvements, and cost containment measures. It will also be prudent to retain strong reserves in order to respond to the many uncertainties ahead. As we continue on the two year Financial Plan journey, there will be several new or enhanced stops along the way. For example, staff has begun a project to identify and prioritize the services provided to the community. This exercise will provide opportunities to identify areas where cross-departmental efficiencies could be gained and where scalability can be implemented in service delivery and will provide a framework for the Council and community to prioritize services. These priorities will guide future budget balancing efforts as we develop the 2011-13 Financial Plan. Staff is working on creating enhanced opportunities for community and employee feedback and input in the budget process. In addition, staff is exploring enhanced communication tools to provide information to the community and employees. These may include online survey tools, enhancements to the City's website, or other uses of technology. In short, staff.is continually looking for ways to improve the communication between and among the community, employees and the City regarding the financial sustainabilityjourney we are on together. SUMMARY While facing significant fiscal challenges, the City will go into 201143 with a number of positives compared with many communities in California; 1. A balanced budget and reserves that are at minimum policy levels. 2. Good information. 3. Strong financial systems and procedures in place. 4. Excellent Council leadership. 5. Committed and engaged citizens 6. An excellent organization and capable staff. 7. A tradition of responsible stewardship. B6-3 General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2011-16 Page 4 This "civic infrastructure" is simply not in place in many other cities and it will serve the City well in successfully meeting the fiscal challenges ahead. Moreover, the fact remains that in good times or bad, the fundamental policy questions posed by the budget process are the same: of all the things we want to do in making our community an even better place, which are the most important? And what are the resource trade-offs needed to do them? ENCLOSURE General Fund Five Year Forecast: 2011-16 G:\Budget Folders\A.Financial Plans\2011-13 Financial Plan\2011-16 Fiscal Forecast\Council Agenda Report, 10-19-1O.doc 86-4 At Katie's suggestion, I've added Debt Service to the chart I distribute yesterday. This better reflects the fact that we can choose to do CIP projects on a pay-go basis or use debt financing (as we did most recently with the Dispatch Center). When considering Debt Service, the"status quo"year for CIP(i.e. "no increase since")moves forward from 97/98 to 99/00. In case you're wondering, adding Fleet Replacement(the difference between CIP and "CIP Lite") would not materially change the chart. Fleet Replacement has fluctuated in the$400K to$500K per year range over the last decade. 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In November Measure Y revenues 37G 2006, City voters approved Measure Y, which received from 2006-07 Fiscal Year Revenue established a general purpose. '/z-cent City sales tax through 2008-09; and 2006-07 1,000,000 to assist in funding essential community services like estimated revenues for 2007-08 5,996,600 street paving, traffic congestion relief, public safety, 2009-11. 2008-09 5,641,400 Jflood protection, senior citizen services and facilities, 2009-10* 5,359,300 neighborhood code enforcement and open space From the effective date 12010-11* 1 5,466,500 preservation. on April 1, 2007 (which I Total 1 $23,463,800 is why there is one 'Estimated J Measure Y revenues have been a key success factor quarter of revenue in J in the City's ability to maintain infrastructure and 2006-07), Measure Y revenues will generate about essential services for our community. Specifically, $23.5 million in General Fund revenues by the end of with these added resources, we have been able to the 2009-11 Financial Plan. Due to the deep make excellent progress in a number of high priority recession, Measure Y revenues are projected to drop areas like paving, traffic congestion relief, creek and from the first full year of implementation (2007-08) by flood protection as well as open space preservation. over$600,000 to the current year(2009-10), with a At the same time, given the worst economic downturn modest 2% increase projected for 2010-11. since the Great Depression, we have avoided deeper cuts in other key City services that would have How have Measure Y revenues been used? The 1 otherwise been required without Measure Y revenues. reverse side of this hand-out provides a detailed J listing of the programs and projects that Measure Y How are Measure Y uses determined? Measure Y revenues have funded since 2007. As summarized Jrevenues are General Fund revenues: they are not below, two-thirds of this funding has gone towards earmarked for specific purposes. As set forth in the infrastructure maintenance and improvements like ordinance adopted by the voters in 2006, the uses of streets paving, sidewalk repair and flood protection. Measure Y revenues are determined through the City's two-year goal-setting and budget process. During this process, the highest priority goals for the Measure Y Uses:2007-2011 community are identified and resources are allocated a Neighborhood J to achieve them. Code 0 Open Space Enforcement Preservation What priorities emerged before and during the 0 Senior Services 2% 4% J Measure Y campaign? While voters have entrusted a Facilities the Council with the responsibility for determining2% O Traffic uses of Measure Y revenues based on changing Congestion economic circumstances and community needs, key Belief priorities that emerged before and during the 8% o infrastructure Maintenance& campaign included: repairing and maintaining City m,provements streets, parks and storm drains; continuing programs o Public Safety 67% l that relieve traffic congestion; improving public safety 17% J services; protecting senior services and programs; and preserving open space. Are there accountability provisions? Along with integration into the City's goal-setting and budget process, other accountability provisions include About 35% of the funding has gone towards operating renewal after eight years and annual independent programs, like police and fire protection, audits, community reports and citizen oversight neighborhood code enforcement, storm drain cleaning meetings. and improved traffic signal operations; and 65% for 1 construction and acquisition projects that preserve J How much General Fund revenue does Measure Y existing infrastructure or improve facilities. lgenerate? The following chart below shows actual J 35 ' The sidebar chart details Total:2007 to 2011 Measure Y uses (actual through Operating Capital Total 2008-09 and budgeted for 2009- public Safety ' 11). The following highlights Police Protection:Truffle Safety&Patrol 2,234,100 119,100 2,353,200 Fire Prevention&Training 1,482,400 1,482,400 major accomplishments funded Fire Engine/Truck Replacement: Debt Service 97,000 97,000 from Measure Y revenues. Total Public Safety 3,716,500 216,100 3,932,600 I Public Safety Infrastructure Maintenance& Improvements • Hired full-time Fire Marshal Neighborhood Paving&Deferred Street Maintenance Iand training officer Paving Crew Productivity 295,600 173,600 469,200 Sidewalk Repair 40,000 40,000 • Replaced critical "front-line" Sidewalk ADA Access Improvements 235,000 235,000 fire truck/engine Street Reconstruction&Resurfacing - 7,046,500 7,046,500 • Avoided deeper cuts in police Street Fleet Replacements:Paver and Roller - 365,800 365,800 I patrol,traffic enforcement and Creek&Flood Protection fire/medical emergency Storm Water Management Plan Implementation 2,086,300 456,600 2,542,900 response services Andrews Creek Bypass 455,000 455,000 Storm Drain Replacements 1,657,400 1,657,400 ICreek Silt Removal 325,000 325,000 Infrastructure Maintenance& Minor Storm Drain Facilities 50,000 50,000 Improvements Storm Sewer and Culvert Repairs 325,000 325,000 • Paved neighborhood and Bishop/Augusta Creek Bank Stabilization - 38,000 38,000 arterial streets Downtown Improvements • Implemented proactive storm Warden Bridge Resurfacing 45,000 45,000 drain cleaning and repair to Street Light Painting 100,000 100,000 protect creeks and improve Urban Forest Management Plan - 50,000 50,000 Sidewalk Repairs&Installation 24,900 309,700 334,600 flood protection Sidewalk Scrubbing 80,000 80,000 Pedestrian Lighting 126,000 126,000 Traffic Congestion Relief Mission Plait Stair Replacement - 102,200 102,200 • Initiated Los Osos Valley Downtown Urban Forest Maintenance - 50,000 50,000 Road interchange design Comprehensive Signing Program 115,000 115,000 • Improved traffic signal Other Infravtructure Maintenance Meadow Park Roof Replacement - 45,000 45,000 ' operations Parks Maintenance 334,000 78,100 412,100 • Enhanced traffic flow at Project Management&Inspection 586,900 586,900 intersections throughout the Other Infrastructure Maintenance Projects 204,000 204,000 City Total Infrastructure Maintenance 3.407,700 12392,900 15,800,600 ' Traffic Congestion Relief Senior Services &Facilities Traffic Signal Operations 278,700 73,000 351,700 • Completed comprehensive Bicycle Safety 30,000 - 30,000 ' senior center remodel Traffic Safety Report Implementation - 50.000 50,000 Neighborhood Traffic Management 40,000 40,000 Neighborhood Code Sidewalk Repair 40,000 40,000 Enforcement Buena Vista/Ga�C1d Intersection Improvements - 35,000 35,000 I Los Osos Valley Road Interchange Environmental Review&Desi - 701,900 701,900 • Hired full-time code Johnson& Buchan Intersection Improvements 100,000 100,000 enforcement officer City-to-Sea Bike Trail Bridges 220,000 220,000 • Expanded Student Tasajara/Foothill Intersection Improvements - 125,000 125,000 Neighborhood Assistance Street Light Replacements-Broad Street - 60,000 60,000 Program (SNAP) Other Traffic Congestion Relief Projects 206,200 - 206,200 Total Traffic Congestion Relief 514,900 1,444,900 1,959,800 Open Space Preservation Senior Services& Facilities ' • Expanded greenbelt, Senior Center Window Replacement 10,000 - 10,000 including, Brughelli Ranch Senior Center Remodel 368,400 368,400 easement(390 acres); Total Senior Services&Facilities 10,000 368.400 378,400 ' Stenner Ranch easement and Neighborhood Code Enforcement Stenner Creek and Bowden Enhanced Building&Zoning Code Enforcement 402,800 13,100 415,900 properties (1,038 acres)and "SNAP"Enhancement 68,700 68,700 Froom Ranch (310 acres, to Total Neg hborhood Code Enforcement 471,500 13,100 484,600 be completed by July 2010) Open Space Preservation 87,400 862,500 949,900 • Opened Johnson Ranch to TOTAL $8,208,000 $18297,900 $23,505,900 public use 36 RECEIVED From: Carter, Andrew OCT 18 2010 Sent: Sunday, October 17, 2010 8:43 PM To: Cano, Elaina SLO CITY CLERK Subject: Red File Request Elaina, Please Red File the attached chart for Business Item 6, Five Year Forecast. I will undoubtedly refer to it on Tuesday night. Thank you. Andrew Carter Council Member City of San Luis Obispo LoPY E'/hiM[� 2-COUNCIL L�CDD DIR RED FILE ,� FIN DIR L'�ATTORNEY 'FIN CHIEF MEETING AGENDA Er PW DIR ErCLERK/ORIa IrPOLICE CHF DATE% ITEM #--Zj� ❑ D �T HEADS IrREC DIR ie [-'UTILDIR ENR DIR _ LV"AA-iL S(oCn3RL�42S Cry X62 $ Million # 4A # # # CR CAo o CA o CA § B B § g 2 k ■ O � @ / $ 2 -0 A _ m A n cn S @ 2 § M © -n - CD [ - �kB ƒ ■ - ■ � ■ - § q ° M w c $ B D CD XCL ( q2 O $ : 2 0 2 � « CL _ © 2 = 0 ° 0 2 k o x E � LL � k ■ o ■ � 2 ca ■ o � ■ � � � g - o § 0 q o Ccn ■ CD 2 � � g / & � ) o a y ■ k � a o g � ■ o