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HomeMy WebLinkAboutb35yrfiscalforecastpres FROM: Wayne Padilla, Director of Finance and Information Technology SUBJECT: GENERAL FUND FIVE YEAR FISCAL FORECAST: 2013-18 RECOMMENDATION Review and discuss the results of the General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast for 2013-18. DISCUSSION Forecast Purpose The purpose of the attached Five-Year Fiscal Forecast is to assess the General Fund’s ability over the next five years to accomplish five things: 1. Deliver current service levels; 2. Maintain existing infrastructure, fleet, information technology (IT), and facilities; 3. Preserve the City’s long-term fiscal health by aligning operating revenues and costs; 4. Maintain fund balance at policy levels; and 5. Reinvest in the General Fund supported Capital Improvement Program, particularly in areas that are underfunded such as infrastructure maintenance, fleet replacement, IT replacement, and facilities maintenance. It is important to stress that the forecast is not the budget: it does neither make expenditure decisions nor revenue decisions. Its sole purpose is to provide an “order of magnitude” feel for the City’s ability to continue current services, maintain existing assets and fund new initiatives. Ultimately, this forecast cannot answer the question: “can the City afford new initiatives?” This is a basic question of priorities, not of financial capacity. However, the forecast helps identify the key factors affecting the City’s fiscal outlook. Additionally, while the forecast does not make budget decisions, it gives the Council, the community, and staff an early “heads-up” in assessing how difficult making these priority decisions will be. Summary of Forecast Findings This fiscal forecast indicates that the City is making progress on its journey to financial sustainability. While no city has fully recovered from the effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression, there is reason for cautious optimism here in San Luis Obispo. In general, revenues have begun to recover and cost containment measures, including reform of the City’s retirement benefits, are working. The fiscal forecast indicates prudent decision making has placed the City in a position where revenues will exceed expenditures; it can continue to provide services to the community as prioritized in the financial planning process; it will meet the policy objective of a 20 percent reserve; it will absorb additional required operating costs and reinvest in the CIP. 12-10-12 B3 - 1 General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2013-18 Page 2 As it relates to revenue, the City is experiencing a resurgence of several revenue sources (namely sales tax, transient occupancy tax (TOT), utility users tax and developer fees) while other revenues are holding steady. With respect to development fees, the City must not assume that it has returned to a period of continuing activity and must not base decisions on the assumption that these revenues will continue to come in at these levels. The City must also be alert for any effects that may result from the federal government’s in ability to adopt a budget and maintain spending within the existing debt ceiling. Containing operating expenditures, particularly related to personnel costs, has been a primary focus on the financial sustainability journey over the past two years. Through budget-driven negotiations, the City has set the stage for ongoing savings that will deliver $3.1 million per year in reduced personnel costs in addition to the savings that will come about from the actions taken to create new retirement benefit programs for new hires. The forecast assumes that employer cost increases in the Public Employees Retirement System (PERS) program will take effect starting in 2015-16 and begins to capture 1% of payroll in 2014-15 and 2% in 2015-16 in order to begin setting aside the resources needed to fund the higher employer rates. Staff continues to monitor all actions being considered by PERS to increase employer costs and is prepared to create new cost forecasts as that information becomes available. Staff is also assessing how to limit costs in the future as it relates to retirement costs (paying down the side fund or any other long term retirement liability) and insurance programs for workers compensation and general liability. The forecast also assumes significant, on-going and increasing re-investment in the City’s General Fund supported capital assets. In the last two years there have been multiple occasions when the City Council expressed a desire to reinvest in the City’s existing assets (infrastructure, information technology, fleet and facilities) as well as new “bricks and mortar” assets. Examples of new investments will include bicycle lanes, pedestrian improvements, and the Santa Rosa skate park. The forecast assumes re-investment in existing assets of all types: Information Technology equipment, vehicles and other rolling stock, building as well as infrastructure such as streets and stormdrains. It is worth noting that the amounts reflected after 2014-15 are place holders and may change depending upon the direction that is received from the City Council and changing financial conditions. It is important to note that while there is increasing re-investment in the City’s capital infrastructure, no funds have been set aside for purposes of enhancing operating programs or addressing the organization’s capacity to achieve the enhanced capital expenditures that are planned. In other words, there is no pre-planned set-aside for staff, consultants or other expenses associated with new or enhanced operating programs. This approach was taken because it is virtually impossible to project City Council and community priorities for operating program enhancement. In sum, as the Council evaluates the City’s financial position, it should consider that different allocations from those identified in the forecast may be warranted based on the outcomes of the goal setting process and the needs associated with achieving those outcomes. Forecast Findings Prudent and thoughtful policy decisions have lead to a stronger financial condition which is cause for cautious optimism. However, uncertainties remain. B3 - 2 General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2013-18 Page 3 There is a second report prepared for this evening’s agenda which addresses the status of Major City Goals and also reviews the unaudited financial results from 2012-13. That report should be read in conjunction with this report on the fiscal forecast since the starting point of the forecast is the ending balance of the last completed fiscal year. As indicated in that report, the ending fund balance grew by $5.3 million, which is $5.1 million more than was expected. There were three primary reasons for this happening: 1. Revenues exceeded budget estimates by $1.4 million as development fees, sales tax, TOT, Utility User’ Taxes and other revenues exceeded a conservative forecast for the year. (Staff will be evaluating these results to determine what changes if any should be made to the forecast revenues as part of the mid-year budget update process that will culminate in a presentation to the City Council in February.) 2. Cost savings totaled $2.7 million, even after counting encumbered funds that will be carried forward. This level of savings exceeded the forecast amount by $633,000; 3. A correction of $1.8 million was made to the fund balance to adjust prior years’ accrued sales tax amounts in line with the information provided by the Board of Equalization. (This adjustment will not have a detrimental effect on future sales tax estimates currently in the forecast.) While the forecast reflects the one-time use of a portion of the excess General Fund reserve, that amount which is above the minimum 20% policy reserve amount. This spending was approved by the City Council as part of the 2013-15 Financial Plan and includes $1.2 million for Skate Park construction; $500,000 for replacement of Information Technology equipment; $500,000 for reinvestment in Major Facility Replacement projects; $20,000 for permit streamlining implementation; and $50,000 for Revenue Measure Outreach and Education. It is important to note that had these one-time costs not been planned, the General Fund would reflect excess revenues over expenditures of $141,000 in the current year. All other years shown in the forecast reflect revenues in excess of expenditures. It must be mentioned here that the previous commentary on the City’s fiscal outlook assumes that voters renew the current general purpose half-cent sales tax measure or another similar measure in 2014. If this does not occur, revenue from the half-cent sales tax would no longer be collected effective April 1, 2015, affecting the last three months of the 2013-15 Financial Plan period. If it is not renewed and the City takes no corrective action, the City would spend as much as $7.7 million more during the forecast period than it garners from revenues resulting in a budget gap (that amount below the minimum 20% policy reserve) that would cumulatively total $24 million by 2017-18. This is the worst case scenario if the City took no corrective action between 2014-15 and 2017-18. Starting next month, staff will begin preparing the outline of a contingency plan and will then formulate a budget adjustment scenario that will ultimately be presented to Council in June 2014 for review. In order to illustrate the impacts of eliminating Measure Y resources, a secondary Five-Year Fiscal Forecast is included. (All other assumptions remain unchanged.) This separate forecast highlights the loss of revenue should the revenue stream from Measure Y cease. As outlined to the Council on September 4, 2012, this information is provided so that the Council and the community could understand the magnitude of the impacts of the half-cent sales tax on the B3 - 3 General Fund Five-Year Fiscal Forecast: 2013-18 Page 4 services being provided. At that meeting, the Council approved the process by which this issue would be outlined as part of the forecast in order to provide context. The report that accompanies the fiscal forecast contains a host of facts about the forecast process and the factors used to determine each year’s revenue and expenditure levels. While the forecast and the report on the status of the 2012-13 Fiscal Year represent positive fiscal news, it is best to follow the City’s practice of waiting for the mid-year update to occur in February before any decisions are made with regard to the use of the larger reserve for one-time costs and the improving revenue picture. This will give staff an opportunity to assess these results, look at trends occurring within the current year and return to the City Council with a complete update on all of this information. SUMMARY The City will go into 2013-15 with a number of positive outlooks compared with many communities in California: 1. A balanced 2013-14 budget and reserves that are above minimum policy levels. 2. Strong financial policies, systems and procedures in place. 3. Cost containment measures that have already been put into place. 4. Excellent Council leadership. 5. Committed and engaged citizens. 6. Excellent organization and capable staff. 7. A tradition of responsible stewardship. This “civic infrastructure” is simply not in place in many other cities and it will serve the City well in successfully meeting the fiscal challenges ahead. Moreover, the fact remains that, in good times or bad, the fundamental policy questions posed by the budget process are the same: of all the things we want to do in making our community an even better place, which are the most important and what is the resource trade-offs needed to accomplish them? ATTACHMENT 1. General Fund Five-Year Forecast: 2013-18 T:\Council Agenda Reports\2012\2012-12-18\Budget Foundation for 2013-15 Financial Plan- 5 YR Financial Forecast (Lichtig-Codron- Stanwyck)\CAR13-18Five year Forecast.doc B3 - 4 General Fund Five Year Forecast for the Period from 2013-2018 (December 2013 Update) TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION Overview Purpose and Summary of Forecast Findings 1 Where We’ve Been 2 Revenue Forecast 3 Expenditure Forecast 5 Summary 8 Synopsis of Major Assumptions Demographic Trends 9 Expenditures 9 Key Revenues 9 Fund Balance 10 FIVE YEAR FORECAST SUMMARY Forecast of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance 12 Forecast of Revenues, Expenditures and Changes in Fund Balance- without measure Y 13 Attachment 1 B3 - 5 OVERVIEW - 1 - PURPOSE AND SUMMARY OF FORECAST FINDINGS PURPOSE: The purpose of this forecast is to assess the General Fund’s ability over the next five years—on an “order of magnitude” basis—to do five things: 1.Deliver current service levels. 2.Maintain the City’s existing infrastructure and facilities based on past funding levels. 3.Preserve the City’s long-term fiscal health by aligning operating revenues and expenditures. 4.Maintain fund balance at policy levels. 5.Reinvest in the General Fund supported Capital Improvement Program, particularly in areas that are underfunded such as infrastructure maintenance, fleet replacement, Information Technology replacement, and facilities maintenance. The forecast does this by projecting likely revenues and subtracting from them operating costs, debt service and the Capital Improvement Program (CIP). The balance remaining is available for Council decision on whether to build reserves to guard against future financial uncertainties or make additional investments to maintain infrastructure, create new capital improvements or to finance operating initiatives. It is important to stress that this forecast is not a budget. The forecast does not make expenditure decisions or formally adopt revenue numbers. Its sole purpose is to provide a context for considering the City’s ability to continue current services, maintain existing assets and/or fund new initiatives. Ultimately, this forecast cannot answer the question: “can we afford new initiatives?” This is a basic question of priorities. Funding new initiatives within existing resources would require adjustments within the existing budget to provide the required resources. As a result, making trade-offs and determining priorities is a key aspect of the budget process. The forecast is a helpful tool in this regard because it provides an important framework for decision-making by projecting the revenues that will likely be available in the future to cover the cost of maintaining current service levels. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: The City’s efforts to control costs have been successful and are ongoing. Policy leadership by the City Council and implementation efforts by City employees have led to this outcome. Prudent spending and financial management allow the city to consistently keep expenditures under budget in both operational and staffing categories. These cost savings coupled with past budget reductions and modest revenue enhancements are helping to fund services for residents and the community while allowing additional investment in critical infrastructure to occur. It should be noted that revenues will be reduced by over $7 million and an overall funding shortfall will occur after 2014-15 if Measure Y is not reauthorized by the voters in November 2014. If Measure Y is not reauthorized, those revenues would cease to be collected in April 2015. The impact of that potential loss is shown in a separate fiscal forecast on page 13. Why is the forecast better than what was expected two years ago? There are two primary reasons why the forecast continues to show improvement. As stated above, the City’s cost control measures have been effective and growth in the General Fund’s major revenues is expected to continue at a modest rate throughout the forecast period. As an example, key revenue sources such as sales tax and Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) have rebounded and have been growing for the past three years with TOT exceeding its pre-recession peak in 2011-12. The forecast projects continued moderate growth in these sources. After three years of minor declines, property tax revenue returned to positive PROGRESS ON THE PATH TO FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Attachment 1 B3 - 6 OVERVIEW - 2 - growth in 2012-13 with very modest increases forecast for the future. While the revenue picture is positive, especially compared to the recent past, the rate of increases projected is less than the rates seen in previous periods of economic growth. The Fiscal Forecast reflects the belief that revenue growth will be “slow and steady” as a symptom of the deep and prolonged recession that began in late 2006. There is more discussion later in this report regarding specific revenues related to the results seen in 2012-13. On the cost side of the equation, the Council took decisive action to reduce expenditures with the adoption of the 2011-13 Financial Plan. This was in addition to actions taken during previous financial plans to reduce costs and address the budget gap. Most recently, these expenditure reductions have been accomplished by controlling operating costs, reducing staffing levels, negotiating personnel compensation reductions, and constraining investment in the Capital Improvement Program. For the longer term, the City has achieved second tier pension formulas with reduced benefits for all new City employees. This is a critical element in the City’s plan to contain costs for future hires who are already members of the Public Employees Retirement System (PERS) because State pension reform only establishes reduced pension formulas for new PERS members. These actions, coupled with the City’s plan to begin addressing the proposed increases in the cost of PERS retirement by taking those costs into account a year before they are scheduled to begin in 2015-16 will help the City minimize the effect of future pension cost increases, which have and will continue to be a major cost driver and source of uncertainty. More information is provided on expenditure trends later in this report. The City continues to benefit from the lower interest rates that were obtained from the two debt refinancings that were completed in 2011-12. In both cases the City received an AA+ implied General Obligation bond rating from Fitch Rating Services and the City compares favorably on many indices with certain AAA-rated cities. WHERE WE’VE BEEN The City’s journey to financial sustainability has been on-going, and it is helpful to review where it has been and the steps that have been taken in response to the constant changes in our financial condition. In the 2009-11 Financial Plan, Council responded to declining revenues caused by the severe recession and unanticipated staffing cost increases with actions to reduce the budget by $11.3 million. While reserves and added revenues played an important role, about 80% of the budget- balancing strategy again relied upon expenditure reductions with the bulk provided by CIP reductions. Reductions from 3-11% by department were imposed with the deepest reductions occurring in the support departments. These reductions included 17.2 regular positions and 6.4 temporary full time equivalent (FTE) positions in the General Fund. This also included salary deferrals by employees totaling nearly $1 million. The 2009-11 Financial Plan Supplement (2010-11 budget) included additional cuts of almost $1 million in operating expenses and almost $2 million in CIP reductions. The 2011-13 Financial Plan focused on permanent, on-going changes as much as possible, with departmental operating budgets and employee concessions being the two largest elements of the budget balancing strategy. Revenue enhancements were also part of the strategy, but were limited due to recognition that the City’s long-term sustainability depends more on cost control than on development of new revenue sources. Therefore the 2011-13 Financial Plan included ongoing employee concessions totaling $3.1 million in all funds, or $2.6 million in the General Fund, as indicated in the chart below. This financial objective set the stage for Council labor relations objectives that included pension reform and a 6.8% reduction in employee total compensation. Attachment 1 B3 - 7 OVERVIEW - 3 - General Fund Budget Balancing Elements 2011-12 2012-13 Revenue enhancements $ 301,300 $ 351,300 Operating budget reductions 1,812,000 1,956,000 Employee concessions 1,300,000 2,600,000 Operational efficiencies /NOBBs 50,000 100,000 Fiscal Health Contingency Plan Elements Still Active Twice since 2008, the City has implemented actions in its fiscal health contingency plan. The first implementation was in response to the adverse financial impacts of the 2008 binding arbitration decision (binding arbitration has since been eliminated through a Charter amendment approved by City voters on August 30, 2011). Actions were again taken due to the significant downturns in revenues in 2009-10, which included a hiring freeze. During 2012-13, a “hiring chill” remained in place requiring the City Manager to approve all hiring actions including backfilling budgeted vacant positions. The City Manager’s judicious use of the “chill” resulted in considerable salary savings without the potentially arbitrary impact on operations that can be caused by a full hiring freeze. Reserve Levels Have Been Maintained The City made strategic use of its reserve funds as lower operating expenditures produced a proportionally smaller reserve requirement. Reserves have been maintained at or above the policy level of 20% of operating expenses throughout the financial difficulties of the last several years. Since 2010-11 the City achieved higher than expected revenues, and expenditure savings, resulting in higher than projected fund balances. (The results for 2012-13 are based on preliminary, unaudited values.) REVENUE FORECAST Reset of Revenue Base Beginning in 2006, the United States experienced the deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression. The bursting of the housing bubble was followed by a crisis in the financial markets, high levels of unemployment and a sharp decline in consumer spending. All of this had a negative effect on the local economy starting in 2008. Since then, several of the City’s top revenues declined or at best stayed flat. Sales tax (including Measure Y), property tax and transient occupancy tax (TOT) account for about two-thirds of all funding sources in the General Fund. As stated earlier, these sources have begun to recover at varying rates with a continuing forecast for “slow and steady ”increases to continue throughout the forecast period. The recovery outlook has been tempered with a bit of uncertainty regarding concerns that there could be future economic turmoil caused by unresolved economic issues, including the on-going lack of a federal budget and challenges in addressing the federal government’s debt ceiling. Uncertainty in the European economy remains a concern as well. This long slow recovery with low growth rates and continued uncertainty is often referred to as the “new normal.” It also means that revenue forecasts must be understood in context. Because of the various uncertainties associated with the current economic recovery, staff has erred on the conservative side when making these projections. Sources used in developing revenue projections for the forecast include long and short-term trends in key City revenues, data from the Central Coast Economic Forecast project; information developed by the State Legislative Analyst and the State Department of Finance; and materials prepared by the League of California Cities and State Controller's Office. To assist in improving the reliability of revenue forecasts, staff has engaged the services of Beacon Economics to provide assistance in developing growth trends for a number of key revenues sources. Beacon’s projections will be discussed in the applicable narrative discussions below. Attachment 1 B3 - 8 OVERVIEW - 4 - Ultimately, the revenue projections in this forecast reflect staff's best judgment about the performance of the local economy during the next five years and how it will affect the City's General Fund revenues. Forecast Sales Tax. For the last two fiscal years the City’s growth estimates for Sales Tax revenue have been exceeded. These estimates were last updated as part of the 2011-13 Financial Plan and the 2012-13 budget. The 2013-14 growth rate projection is 3.6%, followed by a 3.7% increase in 2014-15, 3.8% in 2015-16, 4.94% in 2016-17(which reflects anticipated revenues to be generated from the Chinatown project)and 4% in 2017-18. The following table includes the City’s most recently approved sales tax growth projections, along with projections provided by Beacon Economics and HdL, the City’s sales tax advisor. The data indicates varying degrees of confidence in taxable sales growth over the forecast period. Staff recommends using HdL’s growth assumptions in the current forecast calculation, consistent with our conservative approach to projecting revenues during this uncertain economic recovery. Sales Tax Growth Projections 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Staff 3.74% 4.0% 3.8% 4.94% 4.0% HdL 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Beacon 5.0% 6.4% 8.0% 7.8% 6.6% Measure Y. The growth projections for Measure Y revenue, the local half- cent sales tax, are the same as identified in the previous table for all sales tax revenue. This document includes a forecast of revenue, expenditures and changes in fund balance without Measure Y renewal. It should be noted that if Measure Y is not renewed, revenue from the half-cent sales tax would no longer be collected effective April 1, 2015. This reduction in revenue would affect the last three months of the 2013-15 Financial Plan period, and the last three years of the forecast. As shown in the forecast, if Measure Y is not renewed a negative gap between revenues and expenditures would begin in 2014-15 and grow to $7.7 million in 2017-18. Actual consideration of the tradeoffs that would be required to balance the budget if the half-cent sales tax is eliminated will be considered beginning in January 2014, with decisions by the City Council in June 2014. This schedule gives the Council and the community the opportunity to consider this question separately and independently from the vast number of policy questions to be considered as part of the 2013-15 Financial Plan Supplemental budget adoption for the 2014-15 Fiscal Year. TOT Revenues. Revenues from transient occupancy tax (TOT) ended 2012- 13 up 6.7% from the prior year, reaching $5,572,000. This surpassed the 2007-08 pre-recession peak of $5,054,700 by over 10%. TOT has benefitted from the extensive marketing efforts of the Tourism Business Improvement District and the community promotions program. Having achieved and surpassed the pre-recession peak, staff expects the rate of growth to moderate some. The market has recently seen growth in both room rates and the number of rooms available with the opening in May 2012 of the 84-room Hampton Inn, and the October 2012 opening of the 17-room Granada Hotel. Current projections include the anticipated effect of Monterey Place (11 rooms) in 2014-15 and the Garden Street Terraces project (48 rooms) beginning in 2015-16. Staff has revised the dates for receiving TOT from these hotel properties to reflect the latest information on development plans received by the Community Development Department. Based on the analysis provided by Beacon Economics staff is projecting net TOT revenue growth of: Transient Occupancy Tax Growth Projections 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 6.56% 2.6% 3.3% 5.65% 5.74% Property Taxes. Property tax revenues in 2012-13 were $12.7 million, which included a one-time refund from the County for previously paid administrative fees totaling $620,000. Taking the one-time payment out of the total, property taxes increased by 2% over the prior year, making this the first increase following three years of small declines. Since its Attachment 1 B3 - 9 OVERVIEW - 5 - 2008-09 peak, property tax revenue declined 4.8%, far less than most communities in California and the result of the revaluations of properties by the County Assessor’s office based on market price declines. Based on preliminary data from the Assessor, staff projects continued growth at a modest rate as shown below. Based on data provided by Beacon Economics and information obtained from the County, staff projects the following through the forecast period: Property Tax Growth Projections 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 4.4% 1.5% 2.69% 3.0% 3.4% The initial increase in 2013-14 reflects the lowering of property tax administrative fees by the County, which will continue throughout the forecast period. Grants. The forecast does not reflect the receipt of any “competitive” grant revenues over the next five years. However, our experience tells us that we will undoubtedly be successful in obtaining grants, but these are for restricted purposes, and are usually for new facilities, programs and infrastructure, not the “maintenance-only” activities assumed in the forecast. Other “formula grant” programs like Community Development Block Grants (CDBG) will help in achieving CIP goals. However, their use is highly restricted by the granting agencies. Recent information received from San Luis Obispo County indicates that reductions in the overall amount of CDBG funds and in the amount allowed to be spent on the administration of the grant are to be expected starting this year and continuing into the future as adjustments are made based on the federal budget guidelines. For these reasons, the forecast does not include any funding from these sources. Development Impact Fees. These are subject to changes in the construction market, over which the City has no control. Depending upon growth that occurs in the community over the next five years, transportation impact fees will generate funds to help offset funding for transportation improvements. However, these revenues are restricted solely to funding improvements related to new development. On a much smaller scale, the City also receives park, open space and housing in-lieu fees, which are also restricted to funding improvements related to those specific programs as they relate to new development. Because of these restrictions they are not included in this forecast. EXPENDITURE FORECAST Operating Costs Based on requests from Council, staff has broken down the forecast of operating expenses between staffing and non-staffing costs. This is logical because most City services, such as public safety and building permit inspections, are provided by City staff. It is also helpful to organize operating costs in this way because the factors driving staffing cost increases, such as retirement costs, are completely different and warrant much greater analysis than non-staffing operating costs. Operating Costs - Staffing Basic Compensation. Staffing costs have represented up to 80% of total operating expenditures in the General Fund and have for several years been the driving force behind increases in the costs of providing City services. This has primarily been a function of rising retirement costs driven by substantial increases in the employer contribution rates required by the California Public Employees Retirement System, known as CalPERS or simply PERS. As mentioned above, the City Council included a projection of $2.6 million in annualized reductions in personnel compensation in the General Fund ($3.1 million in all funds) as part of the 2011-13 Financial Plan. The plan Attachment 1 B3 - 10 OVERVIEW - 6 - anticipated achieving $1.3 million in savings during the 2011-12 year and the full $2.6 million in each year thereafter. Achieving the annual savings goal required substantial negotiation with each bargaining unit and ultimately resulted in a variety of phased in approaches to achieve the desired reduction. The last phased-in reduction will occur in July 2014 and the forecast reflects these phased in reductions through the 2014-15 fiscal year. Reductions in compensation were achieved in a variety of ways, depending upon the bargaining unit. However, all employees will pay the full Member contribution to PERS (8% or 9%) by July 2014. Further, none of the labor agreements or compensation resolutions include any sort of cost of living adjustments for salaries during the term (through the end of December 2014 or 2015). Considering it will be at least four years that most employee classifications have not been adjusted, staff forecasts that compensation will increase at the assumed rate of inflation for the 2015- 16 year and beyond. PERS Retirement Costs. Starting with the 2011-16 forecast, staff projected fairly high increases in PERS employer contribution rates over the forecast period based on the rapid rises seen in preceding years and the knowledge that PERS was reviewing and would likely changing a number of assumptions that would increase rates. Several of those assumption changes have come to pass, most notably the change in the rate of return on investments from 7.75% to 7.50%. Employer rates for First Tier Safety Employees rose to 42.16% from 38.9% in 2011-12 while the employer rate for First Tier Miscellaneous Employees rose to 24.7% from 21.97% during that same period. The City recently received its PERS Annual Valuation Report with the official rate for the First Tier Safety Program set at 45.2% for 2014-15 and a projected rate of 47.2% for 2015- 16.The City has not yet received the Annual Valuation report for the Miscellaneous Member Plan. The rates for 2015-16 reflect the initial impact of the June PERS Board action which approved a change to the funding horizon for plan losses (smoothing) and rate adjustments tied to the assumptions related to growth in plan membership, which is now being affected by the addition of new benefit plan programs, which are described below. The Chief Actuary at PERS has also indicated that the retirement board will be considering rate changes related to the effect of lower mortality rates among plan members and a change in the assumed rate of return on plan assets as early as February 2014. If approved, these changes will also begin to take effect in 2015-16. As part of the 2013-15 Financial Plan, staff included as an item of expense, the assumption that in 2014-15, 1% of payroll and in 2015-16, 2% of payroll would be self-assessed in all operating funds and held as a deposit to be applied against the higher PERS rates that will be realized in 2015-16. Overall, the forecast includes the assumption that PERS rates will rise 2% in 2015-16. However, this does not take into effect the savings that will be realized from the adoption of the 2nd and 3rd Tier benefit programs, since PERS has not yet provided a set of separate rates for each of these programs. Staff will return before the City Council in April 2014 with an assessment of the city’s PERS liability and options for paying down that liability as well as with a recap of any further funding assumption changes that are adopted by the PERS board in February 2014. One of the City’s key cost containment objectives achieved through the round of labor negotiations completed during 2012 was pension reform, specifically the achievement of lower second tier pension formulas for City employees that increase the “normal” retirement age and calculate benefits on the average of three years of compensation instead of the single highest year. The State also adopted new pension formulas through the Public Employees Pension Reform Act (PEPRA) effective January 1, 2013. However, the PEPRA formulas only apply to new employees who are also new to PERS. Consequently all new personnel hired by the City will fall into either a second tier, or third “PEPRA” tier , both of which are lower than the City’s current retirement benefits. Future retirement costs will be impacted by rates of turnover in the City’s workforce as new employees receiving lower benefits with lower costs, replace current employees. Thus, the savings to the City will increase over time. PERS provided estimated employer contribution rates only for the City’s Police and Fire Second Tier plans which are 20.6% and 21.8% respectively, compared to the current Attachment 1 B3 - 11 OVERVIEW - 7 - First Tier rates for Police and Fire of 42.16%. The recently enacted Third Tier programs created by the Public Employee’s Pension Reform Act added rates for new members as follows: 12.25% for Police and Fire; 23.15% for Miscellaneous Members. The current rate for the Miscellaneous First Tier plan is 24.68%. Due to the uncertainty in hiring new employees and estimating which ones will be new members and which will be joining the Second Tier programs for Police and Fire, the projection does not reflect new hires’ cost using the rates for these programs. Instead, an estimate of cost savings targeted at $119,000 has been established in the forecast until more experience is gained with these programs and new rates have been established for all of the new benefit tier programs. Other Post Employment Benefit (OPEB) costs. Unlike many cities, the City of San Luis Obispo faces a fairly stable cost outlook for its OPEB obligations. Since 2008 the City pays its full Annual Required Contribution (ARC) to the California Employers Retiree Benefit Trust (CERBT) run by PERS to cover future retiree health benefits, and is rapidly reducing the future liability for this benefit. Based on the latest biennial actuarial report received during 2012, the City’s cost for the next two years will increase from $536,000 to $558,000 and $576,000 respectively, with future increases projected at a similar rate. Bartel and Associates will begin preparation of the next actuarial study in the coming months. Overall, the efforts undertaken to control staffing costs in the short- and long-term appear to be successful. Ultimately, the savings from new retirement tiers will depend on turnover as well as the contribution rates required by PERS, but total staffing costs are projected to grow by less than inflation during the forecast period. Operating Costs – Non-Staffing As the economy has stabilized and recovery taken hold, non-staffing operating costs have begun to rise. City staff has been working hard to identify areas where efficiencies can be made through improved work processes, organizational studies, increased use of technology, etc. and this effort will help moderate costs to some extent. Accordingly, the forecast assumes non-staffing operating costs will increase in each forecast year by the assumptions for population growth and inflation combined. Infrastructure and Facilities Maintenance As discussed in the 2011-16 fiscal forecast, the estimated cost of adequately maintaining, repairing or replacing existing General Fund facilities, infrastructure and equipment is about $8.8 million annually. This excludes any enhancements or “betterments.” To place this in context, the average General Fund CIP expenditures for the last 15 years have been about $4 million annually, and the average for the last two years is a similar amount. The budget for the General Fund CIP was reduced to $2.4 million for 2010-11 and increased to $3.7 million in 2011- 12. For purposes of this Fiscal Forecast, staff started with the expenditure levels adopted for 2013-15 which represents an initial increase in 2013-14 of 47%. This amount varies over the remaining years but increases steadily until it reaches 12% over the 2012-13 amount. While these numbers could and very likely will change through the adoption of future Financial Plans, the previously approved plan is a logical place to start for forecast purposes. One of the Council’s Other Important Objectives for 2013-15 continues to be increasing infrastructure maintenance and investment. This goal is important to the City’s fiscal well-being, since failure to maintain critical infrastructure often results in higher costs down the road. To accomplish this, staff has proposed setting aside funding for major replacements, such as fleet, information technology and major facilities. The forecast reflects as much as $2 million per year being placed into these funds over the 5- year forecast period. Although initial investments in these funds will not cover the full cost of replacing these critical and expensive components, it is a good start toward creating fiscally sustainable replacement programs. Attachment 1 B3 - 12 OVERVIEW - 8 - Debt Service Costs During 2011-12, the City successfully refinanced 2001 Series C lease revenue bonds to achieve a lower interest rate and save $65,000 annually in debt service costs to the General Fund. Staff and the City’s financial advisor remain open to any potential opportunities for further savings that may present themselves if interest rates remain low and other bond refinancing options become available. The City has incurred no new General Fund debt since 2011 but has included in the 2013-15 Financial Plan, the lease purchase of a new fire engine and the financing of replacement mobile data computers for the Police and Fire Departments in order to leverage the city’s contribution to capital replacement. The fire engine lease has been approved by the City Council in November and the annual payments will be $117,000 per year starting in 2014-15. The estimated payment for the mobile computers is $184,500 per year starting in 2013-14. In addition, the forecast includes the debt payment costs related to the Los Osos Valley Road Overcrossing construction. The city has received a grant in excess of $15 million and will finance $8 million to provide the remaining funds needed for construction. The annual payment is estimated to be $371,000 starting in 2014-15 and increasing to $425,000 per year thereafter. SUMMARY The City enters the 2013-15 Financial Planning period in substantially better condition both long and short term than in previous financial plan periods. However, it still faces many challenges as well as continued economic uncertainty. The City continues to have substantial advantages compared with many communities in California due to: 1.Balanced budgets for both years in the 2013-15 Financial Plan and reserves above minimum policy levels 2.Strong financial systems and procedures in place 3.Strong Council leadership 4.Committed and engaged citizens 5.Excellent organization and capable staff 6.Great tradition of responsible stewardship This “civic infrastructure” is simply not in place in many other cities and it will serve San Luis Obispo well in successfully meeting the fiscal challenges ahead. Moreover, the fact remains that in good times or bad, the fundamental policy questions posed by the budget process are the same: of all the things we want to do in making our community an even better place to live, work and play, which are the most important? And what are the resource trade-offs we have to make to do them? Attachment 1 B3 - 13 SYNOPSIS OF MAJOR TRENDS - 9 - DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 1.Population and Housing. Population grows by 0.25% per year for each of the years in the forecast. 2.Inflation. Grows by 2.4% in 2013-14 and 2.5% each fiscal year through 2017-18. EXPENDITURES 1.Operating Expenditures - Staffing. Uses the adopted budget for 2013- 14 and the preliminary 2014-15 budget values for those years. Using 2014-15 as the base for later years, staffing costs are estimated to increase by the estimated inflation factor of 2.5% for the remainder of the forecast period. Savings is estimated to be 2% per year. 2.Operating Expenditures – Non-Staffing. Uses the preliminary 2014-15 budget as the base and assumes increases (2.8%) based on combined growth rates for population and inflation. Savings is estimated to be 2% per year except in the second year of each 2-year Financial Plan cycle, when savings is estimated to be 2.25% based on recent experience. 3.CIP Expenditures. Based on the five-year CIP program approved with the 2013-15 Financial Plan. Steadily increasing expenses occur through 2017-18. 4.Debt Service. The forecast includes current debt service obligations and the estimated new debt service obligations called for in the 2013- 15 Financial Plan for financing of a fire engine, mobile computers for public safety and the LOVR Overpass Construction grant match. KEY REVENUES Top Dozen General Fund Revenues These “Top Dozen” sources account for about 95% of total projected General Fund revenues. The estimated growth rates compare the forecast amount to the Mid-Year budget estimate from 2012-13. 1.Sales Tax. Grows by rates projected by HdL and incorporates specific factors such as the lapsing Airport Area Annexation Agreement and estimated revenue generation from both the Chinatown and Garden Street Terrace projects. Measure Y and Proposition 172 revenues are projected to grow by the same factors. 2.Property Tax. As projected using information supplied by the County, grows by 4.4% in 2013-14 with approximately half of that amount resulting from lower property tax administration fees; by 1.5% in 2014-15; by 3.0% in later years. 3.Transient Occupancy Tax. Based on performance through the first 3 quarters of 2012-13, grows by 6.56% in 2013-14; by 2.6% in 2014-15; by 3.3% in 2015-16; by 5.65% in 2016-17 due to projected development in the downtown area from the Chinatown and Garden Street Terrace projects; by 5.74% in 2017-18. 4.Utility Users Tax. Grows by 2.0% in 2013-14; by 2.5% in 2014-15; by 1.5% in 2015-16; by 2.8% in 2016-17 and 3.1% in 2017-18. Passage of Measure D-12 which clarified the application of the tax and lowered the percentage applicable to telecom services was projected to be revenue neutral. Staff is analyzing the actual results seen in 2012-13 starting in April, when it was noted that an increase in revenues was realized after the tax change took effect. The forecast is based in part on estimates provided by Beacon Economics, starting with the 2015- 16 year. Attachment 1 B3 - 14 SYNOPSIS OF MAJOR TRENDS - 10 - 5.Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees. Grows by the same rate as property tax revenues throughout the forecast period. 6.Business Tax. Grows by 2.5% in 2013-14 and 2014-15; by 2.3% in 2015-16; by 2.6% in 2016-17 and 2.8% in 2017-18. The forecast is based in part on estimates provided by Beacon Economics, starting with the 2015-16 year. 7.Franchise Fees. Growth estimated using a combination of population and inflation throughout the forecast period. 8.Gas Tax Subventions. Forecast using information provided by California City Finance and recent local trends. Growth is being monitored closely since the state’s implementation of the Proposition 42 replacement component is creating irregular patterns in the allocation of these funds. 9.Development Review Fees. Decreased by 9.2% in 2013-14 in order to eliminate the spike in revenues noted in 2012-13 which may not reoccur. Grows by 4.99% in 2014-15; grows by 4% thereafter based on Beacon Economics projection for building permit activity adjusted for estimated timing of development review activity by Community Development Department. Based on the continuing growth of these revenues in the first part of 2013-14 in excess of anticipated levels, staff will review these revenues with the City Council as part of the mid-year update process. 10.Recreation Fees. Grows by population and inflation throughout the forecast period. 11.Other Fees. Grows by population and inflation throughout the forecast period. 12.Investments. Grows by 2.1% in 2013-14 and 1.5% each year thereafter. This takes into account the lower yields earned on new investments. Special Revenue Assumptions 1.Proposition 42 Revenues. Beginning in 2010-11, the State replaced Proposition 42 revenues with additional Gas Tax revenues pursuant to Revenue & Taxation Code Section 7360. The City receives about $500,000 annually from these transportation-restricted revenues which are included in the Gas Tax estimates. 2.Mutual Aid Reimbursements. The forecast makes no assumptions for the receipt of mutual aid revenues. This revenue results when Fire personnel respond to significant events (usually wildland fires) for which the City receives reimbursement from Federal or State sources. Response to these types of events is volatile and difficult to predict. While the City almost always receives some level of revenue from this source each year, including substantial amounts in some years, there are years where very little net revenue is received and it is unwise to build the forecast based on these revenues. 3.State Budget Impacts. The forecast assumes no further adverse state budget actions during the forecast period. With the adoption of the 2013-14 balanced budget and an unexpected surplus from 2012-13, the state’s fiscal condition is improving but does not appear to require additional assistance from local agencies. 4.Federal Fiscal Cliff – The State LAO states that Congress’ failure to deal with the issues referred to as the “Fiscal Cliff” could result in economic conditions differing materially from those forecast. This means that “autopilot” actions referred to in the term “Fiscal Cliff” could affect the economic growth upon which the forecast is based. This does not account for unfunded Federal mandates that may trickle down to the local level. There will be at least one more deadline by which Congress must decide whether to increase the federal debt limit, a process that has been complicated by the issues surrounding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Attachment 1 B3 - 15 SYNOPSIS OF MAJOR TRENDS - 11 - FUND BALANCE The forecast assumes that the policy for maintaining fund balance at a minimum of 20% of operating expenditures will be adhered to throughout the forecast period. The fund balance has been updated based on the unaudited 2012-13 results and has been used for the remaining periods included in the 5-year forecast. Any amount above the policy level is one- time funding and in accordance with Council adopted policy should be used for one-time purposes (not for on-going operating programs). As previously discussed, this document includes a forecast of revenue, expenditures and changes in fund balance without Measure Y renewal. In order to achieve the fund balance called for by the City’s reserve policy in this scenario, significant reductions in expenditures would have to occur to offset the loss of Measure Y revenue. Attachment 1 B3 - 16 GE N E R A L  FU N D  FI V E  YE A R  FI S C A L  FO R E C A S T :  20 1 3 ‐18 At t a c h m e n t  1 20 1 0 ‐11 2 0 1 1 ‐12 2 0 1 2 ‐13 2 0 1 2 ‐13 Ac t u a l A c t u a l M i d ‐Ye a r U n a u d i t e d 2 0 1 3 ‐14 20 1 4 ‐15 2 0 1 5 ‐162016‐172017‐18 20 1 3 ‐15  Fi n a n c i a l  Pl a n AV A I L A B L E  FU N D  BA L A N C E ,  BE G I N N I N G  OF  YE A R 11 , 1 1 4 , 1 0 0 1 2 , 9 0 7 , 9 0 0 1 0 , 8 0 2 , 3 2 8 1 1 , 0 7 3 , 3 2 8 1 8 , 7 2 5 , 9 6 9    16 , 5 9 7 , 1 6 9   16 , 6 9 6 , 8 6 9    16,804,04317,544,347  En c u m b r a n c e s 1, 3 9 5 , 8 7 2    1, 3 9 5 , 8 7 2     On e ‐ti m e  Ad j u s t m e n t  to  Fu n d  Ba l a n c e 1, 8 9 6 , 9 0 0     Ca r r y o v e r / U n u s e d  Ap p r o p r i a t i o n s 88 3 , 4 0 0            88 3 , 4 0 0            Fu n d  Ba l a n c e  Pr o g r a m m e d  fo r  20 1 2 ‐13  co s t s : 13 , 0 8 1 , 6 0 0 1 5 , 2 4 9 , 5 0 0 RE V E N U E S  & OT H E R  SO U R C E S Ta x e s Sa l e s  Ta x  + In ‐li e u  (B a s e d  on  "e f f e c t i v e "  1%  ta x  ra t e ) 12 , 0 9 8 , 6 0 0 1 3 , 2 8 9 , 9 5 0 1 4 , 0 0 6 , 2 9 2 1 4 , 2 9 8 , 4 0 0 1 4 , 5 1 5 , 5 0 0      15 , 0 5 8 , 7 0 0   15 , 6 3 4 , 9 9 6    16,408,14517,064,471 Me a s u r e  Y 1/ 2 %  No t e :  20 1 4 ‐15 / 1 5 ‐16  Es t i m a t e s  as s u m e  re n e w a l 5, 6 1 6 , 3 0 0    6, 2 3 7 , 4 6 8    6, 3 4 0 , 0 0 0    6, 4 9 3 , 8 0 0    6, 6 0 0 , 0 0 0          6, 8 6 4 , 0 0 0      7,138,560          7,424,102   7,721,066    Sa l e s  Ta x  ‐   Pr o p o s i t i o n  17 2 27 1 , 3 0 0            30 7 , 4 2 9            28 4 , 6 0 0            32 7 , 7 0 0            28 4 , 2 0 0                28 4 , 6 0 0              293,138                301,932      314,009       Pr o p e r t y  Ta x 8, 4 4 1 , 1 0 0    8, 3 6 7 , 0 8 8    8, 3 7 0 , 2 0 0    9, 1 7 6 , 6 0 0    8, 7 4 0 , 8 0 0          8, 8 7 2 , 2 0 0      9,111,745          9,385,096   9,704,190    Pr o p e r t y  Ta x  in  li e u  of  VL F 3, 5 5 1 , 1 0 0    3, 4 9 2 , 3 6 1    3, 5 3 3 , 2 0 0    3, 5 3 3 , 2 0 0    3, 5 8 6 , 2 0 0          3, 6 4 0 , 0 0 0      3,738,259          3,850,407   3,981,321    Tr a n s i e n t  Oc c u p a n c y  Ta x 4, 8 4 4 , 2 0 0    5, 2 2 2 , 0 0 4    5, 3 9 5 , 0 0 0    5, 5 7 2 , 4 0 0    5, 7 4 9 , 4 0 0          5, 8 9 8 , 2 0 0      6,092,835          6,437,177   6,806,789    Ut i l i t y  Us e r s  Ta x 4, 5 9 2 , 3 0 0    4, 5 8 4 , 0 5 5    4, 6 6 2 , 7 0 0    4, 9 2 8 , 0 0 0    4, 7 5 6 , 0 0 0          4, 8 7 4 , 9 0 0      4,948,018          5,086,563   5,244,246    Fr a n c h i s e  Fe e s 2, 3 5 2 , 1 0 0    2, 4 6 2 , 3 4 9    2, 4 9 8 , 0 0 0    2, 5 5 2 , 3 0 0    2, 5 2 3 , 0 0 0          2, 5 4 8 , 2 0 0      2,619,588          2,692,936   2,768,339    Bu s i n e s s  Ta x 1, 7 9 7 , 8 0 0    1, 8 3 7 , 5 4 8    2, 0 5 0 , 0 0 0    2, 0 3 8 , 9 0 0    2, 1 1 6 , 2 0 0          2, 1 6 8 , 6 0 0      2,203,318          2,260,604   2,323,901    Re a l  Pr o p e r t y  Tr a n s f e r  Ta x 13 3 , 7 0 0            14 3 , 9 8 5            18 0 , 0 0 0            25 6 , 3 0 0            18 0 , 0 0 0                18 0 , 0 0 0              183,600                187,272      192,516       Su b v e n t i o n s  & Gr a n t s Ve h i c l e  Li c e n s e  In ‐Li e u  Fe e s  (V L F ) 20 5 , 6 0 0            45 , 7 5 2                ‐                               19 , 3 0 0                ‐ ‐                                 ‐‐               ‐                Ga s  Ta x / T D A / T B I D  Tr a n s f e r s  In 1, 6 5 8 , 4 0 0    1, 4 0 7 , 6 0 0    1, 3 9 5 , 5 0 0    1, 3 8 4 , 9 0 0    1, 4 4 6 , 3 0 0          1, 4 3 2 , 8 0 0      1,407,680          1,407,680   1,407,680    Ot h e r  Su b v e n t i o n s  & Gr a n t s 59 0 , 4 0 0            56 4 , 3 4 7            1, 5 0 3 , 0 0 0    1, 3 5 5 , 2 0 0    33 1 , 7 0 0                33 1 , 7 0 0              281,721                283,971      286,598       Se r v i c e  Ch a r g e s De v e l o p m e n t  Re v i e w  Fe e s 1, 6 6 8 , 0 0 0    2, 4 5 3 , 7 7 3    2, 3 6 0 , 9 0 0    2, 5 9 5 , 2 0 0    2, 1 4 3 , 7 0 0          2, 2 5 0 , 6 0 0      2,340,653          2,434,279   2,531,650    Re c r e a t i o n  Fe e s 1, 3 0 0 , 7 0 0    1, 7 4 1 , 6 7 6    1, 5 1 8 , 4 0 0    1, 7 4 7 , 9 0 0    1, 5 1 9 , 2 0 0          1, 5 2 7 , 7 0 0      1,562,627          1,606,381   1,651,359    Ot h e r  Se r v i c e  Ch a r g e s 2, 0 1 8 , 4 0 0    2, 0 8 9 , 8 5 1    1, 8 6 0 , 6 0 0    1, 8 5 1 , 4 0 0    1, 7 7 4 , 8 0 0          1, 7 8 1 , 5 0 0      1,859,400          1,864,400   1,869,400    Ot h e r  Re v e n u e s Fi n e s  & Fo r f e i t u r e s 17 1 , 4 0 0            17 4 , 3 3 1            16 7 , 2 5 0            15 9 , 7 0 0            16 7 , 3 0 0                16 7 , 3 0 0              171,933                176,747      181,696       In t e r e s t  Ea r n i n g s  an d  Re n t s 54 9 , 9 0 0            58 8 , 4 5 1            28 9 , 0 0 0            28 2 , 9 0 0            32 4 , 2 0 0                32 4 , 2 0 0              329,000                334,000      349,000        Bo n d  Pr o c e e d s 5, 3 8 6 , 3 0 0    Ot h e r  Re v e n u e s 17 9 , 3 0 0            84 , 4 4 5                52 4 , 6 0 0            49 9 , 9 0 0            15 0 , 0 0 0                15 0 , 0 0 0              100,000                100,000      100,000       To t a l  Re v e n u e s 52 , 0 4 0 , 6 0 0 6 0 , 4 8 0 , 7 6 3 5 6 , 9 3 9 , 2 4 2 5 9 , 0 7 4 , 0 0 0 5 6 , 9 0 8 , 5 0 0      58 , 3 5 5 , 2 0 0   60 , 0 1 7 , 0 7 1    62,241,69264,498,231 EX P E N D I T U R E S  & OT H E R  US E S St a f f i n g  Co s t s ,  ne t  of  re i m b .  tr a n s f e r s  an d  es t .  sa v i n g s 34 , 7 1 9 , 8 0 0 3 6 , 2 7 2 , 5 0 0 3 5 , 9 4 5 , 4 0 0 3 6 , 4 5 0 , 6 0 0 3 6 , 1 3 5 , 2 6 2      36 , 7 5 0 , 7 9 6   38 , 2 6 0 , 8 7 7    39,386,93940,466,645 Op e r a t i n g  Pr o g r a m s  ‐   No n ‐st a f f i n g  co s t s  (n e t  of  es t i m a t e d  sa v i n g s ) 9, 9 9 4 , 1 0 0    10 , 9 3 9 , 6 5 5 1 5 , 0 9 3 , 1 0 0 1 2 , 1 5 8 , 3 0 0 1 3 , 4 2 6 , 0 3 8      13 , 9 2 2 , 8 0 4   14 , 0 6 3 , 3 2 8    14,046,90514,772,600 Tr a n s f e r s  to  Go l f ,  CD B G 37 2 , 8 0 0            53 , 5 6 4                45 , 0 0 0                45 , 0 0 0                53 , 1 0 0                      81 , 2 0 0                  81,200                    81,200        81,200          Bo n d  Co s t s / D e f e a s a n c e 5, 7 7 8 , 5 0 0    De b t  Se r v i c e 3, 0 2 3 , 2 0 0    2, 4 3 7 , 2 4 4    2, 6 3 7 , 5 0 0    2, 7 7 2 , 6 3 1    2, 7 6 0 , 2 0 0          2, 9 6 3 , 9 0 0      3,009,051          2,999,103   2,816,219    Tr a n s f e r  to  In s u r a n c e  Fu n d  ‐   CJ P I A  Re t r o  pa y m e n t 20,407                    475,407      475,407       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Eq u i p m e n t  Re p l a c e m e n t    (F l e e t ) ‐                               50 0 , 0 0 0            50 0 , 0 0 0            50 0 , 0 0 0            40 8 , 6 0 0                53 2 , 6 0 0              623,951                623,951      823,951       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Eq u i p m e n t  Re p l a c e m e n t  (I T ) 20 0 , 0 0 0            20 0 , 0 0 0            56 5 , 5 0 0                96 7 , 1 0 0              165,458                165,458      700,000       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Ma j o r  Fa c i l i t y  Re p l a c e m e n t 60 2 , 7 0 0                55 1 , 4 0 0              100,000                100,000      450,000       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Al l  ot h e r  CI P / O p e n  Sp a c e 2, 1 3 6 , 9 0 0    3, 7 2 2 , 8 0 0    3, 3 1 8 , 4 0 0    3, 4 7 1 , 0 0 0    5, 0 8 5 , 9 0 0          2, 4 8 5 , 7 0 0      3,585,625          3,622,425   3,897,425    To t a l  Ex p e n d i t u r e s 50 , 2 4 6 , 8 0 0 5 9 , 7 0 4 , 2 6 3 57 , 7 3 9 , 4 0 0 55 , 5 9 7 , 5 3 1 5 9 , 0 3 7 , 3 0 0      58 , 2 5 5 , 5 0 0   59 , 9 0 9 , 8 9 7    61,501,38864,483,447 Re v e n u e s  Ov e r  (U n d e r )  Ex p e n d i t u r e s   1, 7 9 3 , 8 0 0    77 6 , 5 0 0            1, 4 7 9 , 1 1 4    5, 7 5 5 , 7 4 1    (2 , 1 2 8 , 8 0 0 )      99 , 7 0 0                  107,174                740,304      14,784         FU N D  BA L A N C E ,  EN D  OF  YE A R 12 , 9 0 7 , 9 0 0 1 3 , 6 8 4 , 4 0 0 1 2 , 2 8 1 , 4 4 2 1 8 , 7 2 5 , 9 6 9 1 6 , 5 9 7 , 1 6 9      16 , 6 9 6 , 8 6 9   16 , 8 0 4 , 0 4 3    17,544,34717,559,131 Re s e r v e  @ 20 %  of  Op e r a t i n g  Co s t s 8, 9 4 2 , 8 0 0    9, 1 6 0 , 9 0 0    9, 9 3 0 , 7 0 0    10 , 0 7 2 , 9 8 0 9 , 9 1 2 , 2 7 3          10 , 1 3 4 , 7 0 0   10 , 4 6 8 , 9 2 5    10,781,93011,142,891  Ad j u s t  fo r  En c u m b r a n c e / C a r r y o v e r / D e b t  Sv c  Re s e r v e s (2 , 8 8 2 , 0 7 2 )   (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )   (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )      (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )    (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )      (2,087,600) (2,087,600)  Re s e r v e  ab o v e / ( b e l o w )  po l i c y  le v e l 3, 9 6 5 , 1 0 0        1, 6 4 1 , 4 2 8        2, 3 5 0 , 7 4 2        6, 5 6 5 , 3 8 9        4, 5 9 7 , 2 9 6            4, 4 7 4 , 5 6 9          4,247,518              4,674,817     4,328,640      FO R E C A S T 12B3 - 17 GE N E R A L  FU N D  FI V E  YE A R  FI S C A L  FO R E C A S T :  20 1 3 ‐18  ‐   As s u m e s  Sa l e s  Ta x  Me a s u r e  La p s e s  in  Ap r i l  20 1 5 At t a c h m e n t  1 20 1 0 ‐11 2 0 1 1 ‐12 2 0 1 2 ‐13 2 0 1 2 ‐13 Ac t u a l A c t u a l M i d ‐Ye a r U n a u d i t e d 2 0 1 3 ‐14 20 1 4 ‐15 2 0 1 5 ‐162016‐172017‐18 20 1 3 ‐15  Fi n a n c i a l  Pl a n AV A I L A B L E  FU N D  BA L A N C E ,  BE G I N N I N G  OF  YE A R 11 , 1 1 4 , 1 0 0 1 2 , 9 0 7 , 9 0 0 1 0 , 8 0 2 , 3 2 8    11 , 0 7 3 , 3 2 8 1 8 , 7 2 5 , 9 6 9   16 , 5 9 7 , 1 6 9   13,996,869    6,965,483   281,685        En c u m b r a n c e s 1, 3 9 5 , 8 7 2        1, 3 9 5 , 8 7 2     On e ‐ti m e  Ad j u s t m e n t  to  Fu n d  Ba l a n c e 1, 8 9 6 , 9 0 0     Ca r r y o v e r / U n u s e d  Ap p r o p r i a t i o n s 88 3 , 4 0 0                88 3 , 4 0 0            Fu n d  Ba l a n c e  Pr o g r a m m e d  fo r  20 1 2 ‐13  co s t s : 13 , 0 8 1 , 6 0 0    15 , 2 4 9 , 5 0 0 RE V E N U E S  & OT H E R  SO U R C E S Ta x e s Sa l e s  Ta x  + In ‐li e u  (B a s e d  on  "e f f e c t i v e "  1%  ta x  ra t e ) 12 , 0 9 8 , 6 0 0 1 3 , 2 8 9 , 9 5 0 1 4 , 0 0 6 , 2 9 2    14 , 2 9 8 , 4 0 0 1 4 , 5 1 5 , 5 0 0    15 , 0 5 8 , 7 0 0   15,634,996    16,408,14517,064,471 Me a s u r e  Y 1/ 2 %  No t e :  20 1 4 ‐15 / 1 5 ‐16  Es t i m a t e s  as s u m e  re n e w a l 5, 6 1 6 , 3 0 0    6, 2 3 7 , 4 6 8    6, 3 4 0 , 0 0 0          6, 4 9 3 , 8 0 0    6, 6 0 0 , 0 0 0        4, 1 6 4 , 0 0 0      ‐‐               ‐                 Sa l e s  Ta x  ‐   Pr o p o s i t i o n  17 2 27 1 , 3 0 0            30 7 , 4 2 9            28 4 , 6 0 0                32 7 , 7 0 0            28 4 , 2 0 0              28 4 , 6 0 0              293,138                301,932      314,009       Pr o p e r t y  Ta x 8, 4 4 1 , 1 0 0    8, 3 6 7 , 0 8 8    8, 3 7 0 , 2 0 0          9, 1 7 6 , 6 0 0    8, 7 4 0 , 8 0 0        8, 8 7 2 , 2 0 0      9,111,745          9,385,096   9,704,190    Pr o p e r t y  Ta x  in  li e u  of  VL F 3, 5 5 1 , 1 0 0    3, 4 9 2 , 3 6 1    3, 5 3 3 , 2 0 0          3, 5 3 3 , 2 0 0    3, 5 8 6 , 2 0 0        3, 6 4 0 , 0 0 0      3,738,259          3,850,407   3,981,321    Tr a n s i e n t  Oc c u p a n c y  Ta x 4, 8 4 4 , 2 0 0    5, 2 2 2 , 0 0 4    5, 3 9 5 , 0 0 0          5, 5 7 2 , 4 0 0    5, 7 4 9 , 4 0 0        5, 8 9 8 , 2 0 0      6,092,835          6,437,177   6,806,789    Ut i l i t y  Us e r s  Ta x 4, 5 9 2 , 3 0 0    4, 5 8 4 , 0 5 5    4, 6 6 2 , 7 0 0          4, 9 2 8 , 0 0 0    4, 7 5 6 , 0 0 0        4, 8 7 4 , 9 0 0      4,948,018          5,086,563   5,244,246    Fr a n c h i s e  Fe e s 2, 3 5 2 , 1 0 0    2, 4 6 2 , 3 4 9    2, 4 9 8 , 0 0 0          2, 5 5 2 , 3 0 0    2, 5 2 3 , 0 0 0        2, 5 4 8 , 2 0 0      2,619,588          2,692,936   2,768,339    Bu s i n e s s  Ta x 1, 7 9 7 , 8 0 0    1, 8 3 7 , 5 4 8    2, 0 5 0 , 0 0 0          2, 0 3 8 , 9 0 0    2, 1 1 6 , 2 0 0        2, 1 6 8 , 6 0 0      2,203,318          2,260,604   2,323,901    Re a l  Pr o p e r t y  Tr a n s f e r  Ta x 13 3 , 7 0 0            14 3 , 9 8 5            18 0 , 0 0 0                25 6 , 3 0 0            18 0 , 0 0 0              18 0 , 0 0 0              183,600                187,272      192,516       Su b v e n t i o n s  & Gr a n t s Ve h i c l e  Li c e n s e  In ‐Li e u  Fe e s  (V L F ) 20 5 , 6 0 0            45 , 7 5 2                ‐ 19 , 3 0 0                  ‐                                 ‐                                 ‐‐               ‐                 Ga s  Ta x / T D A / T B I D  Tr a n s f e r s  In 1, 6 5 8 , 4 0 0    1, 4 0 7 , 6 0 0    1, 3 9 5 , 5 0 0          1, 3 8 4 , 9 0 0    1, 4 4 6 , 3 0 0        1, 4 3 2 , 8 0 0      1,407,680          1,407,680   1,407,680    Ot h e r  Su b v e n t i o n s  & Gr a n t s 59 0 , 4 0 0            56 4 , 3 4 7            1, 5 0 3 , 0 0 0          1, 3 5 5 , 2 0 0    33 1 , 7 0 0              33 1 , 7 0 0              281,721                283,971      286,598       Se r v i c e  Ch a r g e s De v e l o p m e n t  Re v i e w  Fe e s 1, 6 6 8 , 0 0 0    2, 4 5 3 , 7 7 3    2, 3 6 0 , 9 0 0          2, 5 9 5 , 2 0 0    2, 1 4 3 , 7 0 0        2, 2 5 0 , 6 0 0      2,340,653          2,434,279   2,531,650    Re c r e a t i o n  Fe e s 1, 3 0 0 , 7 0 0    1, 7 4 1 , 6 7 6    1, 5 1 8 , 4 0 0          1, 7 4 7 , 9 0 0    1, 5 1 9 , 2 0 0        1, 5 2 7 , 7 0 0      1,562,627          1,606,381   1,651,359    Ot h e r  Se r v i c e  Ch a r g e s 2, 0 1 8 , 4 0 0    2, 0 8 9 , 8 5 1    1, 8 6 0 , 6 0 0          1, 8 5 1 , 4 0 0    1, 7 7 4 , 8 0 0        1, 7 8 1 , 5 0 0      1,859,400          1,864,400   1,869,400    Ot h e r  Re v e n u e s Fi n e s  & Fo r f e i t u r e s 17 1 , 4 0 0            17 4 , 3 3 1            16 7 , 2 5 0                15 9 , 7 0 0            16 7 , 3 0 0              16 7 , 3 0 0              171,933                176,747      181,696       In t e r e s t  Ea r n i n g s  an d  Re n t s 54 9 , 9 0 0            58 8 , 4 5 1            28 9 , 0 0 0                28 2 , 9 0 0            32 4 , 2 0 0              32 4 , 2 0 0              329,000                334,000      349,000        Bo n d  Pr o c e e d s 5, 3 8 6 , 3 0 0    Ot h e r  Re v e n u e s 17 9 , 3 0 0            84 , 4 4 5                52 4 , 6 0 0                49 9 , 9 0 0            15 0 , 0 0 0              15 0 , 0 0 0              100,000                100,000      100,000       To t a l  Re v e n u e s 52 , 0 4 0 , 6 0 0 6 0 , 4 8 0 , 7 6 3 5 6 , 9 3 9 , 2 4 2    59 , 0 7 4 , 0 0 0 5 6 , 9 0 8 , 5 0 0    55 , 6 5 5 , 2 0 0   52,878,511    54,817,59056,777,165 EX P E N D I T U R E S  & OT H E R  US E S St a f f i n g  Co s t s ,  ne t  of  re i m b .  tr a n s f e r s  an d  es t .  sa v i n g s 34 , 7 1 9 , 8 0 0 3 6 , 2 7 2 , 5 0 0 3 5 , 9 4 5 , 4 0 0    36 , 4 5 0 , 6 0 0 3 6 , 1 3 5 , 2 6 2    36 , 7 5 0 , 7 9 6   38,260,877    39,386,93940,466,645 Op e r a t i n g  Pr o g r a m s  ‐   No n ‐st a f f i n g  co s t s  (n e t  of  es t i m a t e d  sa v i n g s ) 9, 9 9 4 , 1 0 0    10 , 9 3 9 , 6 5 5 1 5 , 0 9 3 , 1 0 0    12 , 1 5 8 , 3 0 0 1 3 , 4 2 6 , 0 3 8    13 , 9 2 2 , 8 0 4   14,063,328    14,046,90514,772,600 Tr a n s f e r s  to  Go l f ,  CD B G 37 2 , 8 0 0            53 , 5 6 4                45 , 0 0 0                    45 , 0 0 0                  53 , 1 0 0                    81 , 2 0 0                  81,200                    81,200        81,200          Bo n d  Co s t s / D e f e a s a n c e 5, 7 7 8 , 5 0 0    De b t  Se r v i c e 3, 0 2 3 , 2 0 0    2, 4 3 7 , 2 4 4    2, 6 3 7 , 5 0 0          2, 7 7 2 , 6 3 1    2, 7 6 0 , 2 0 0        2, 9 6 3 , 9 0 0      3,009,051          2,999,103   2,816,219    Tr a n s f e r  to  In s u r a n c e  Fu n d  ‐   CJ P I A  Re t r o  pa y m e n t 20,407                    475,407      475,407       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Eq u i p m e n t  Re p l a c e m e n t    (F l e e t ) ‐                               50 0 , 0 0 0            50 0 , 0 0 0                50 0 , 0 0 0            40 8 , 6 0 0              53 2 , 6 0 0              623,951                623,951      823,951       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Eq u i p m e n t  Re p l a c e m e n t  (I T ) 20 0 , 0 0 0                20 0 , 0 0 0            56 5 , 5 0 0              96 7 , 1 0 0              165,458                165,458      700,000       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Ma j o r  Fa c i l i t y  Re p l a c e m e n t 60 2 , 7 0 0              55 1 , 4 0 0              100,000                100,000      450,000       Ca p i t a l  Im p r o v e m e n t  Pl a n  ‐   Al l  ot h e r  CI P / O p e n  Sp a c e 2, 1 3 6 , 9 0 0    3, 7 2 2 , 8 0 0    3, 3 1 8 , 4 0 0          3, 4 7 1 , 0 0 0    5, 0 8 5 , 9 0 0        2, 4 8 5 , 7 0 0      3,585,625          3,622,425   3,897,425    To t a l  Ex p e n d i t u r e s 50 , 2 4 6 , 8 0 0 5 9 , 7 0 4 , 2 6 3 57 , 7 3 9 , 4 0 0    55 , 5 9 7 , 5 3 1 59 , 0 3 7 , 3 0 0    58 , 2 5 5 , 5 0 0   59,909,897    61,501,38864,483,447 Re v e n u e s  Ov e r  (U n d e r )  Ex p e n d i t u r e s   1, 7 9 3 , 8 0 0    77 6 , 5 0 0            1, 4 7 9 , 1 1 4          5, 7 5 5 , 7 4 1    (2 , 1 2 8 , 8 0 0 )    (2 , 6 0 0 , 3 0 0 )    (7,031,386)      (6,683,798) (7,706,282)  FU N D  BA L A N C E ,  EN D  OF  YE A R 12 , 9 0 7 , 9 0 0 1 3 , 6 8 4 , 4 0 0 1 2 , 2 8 1 , 4 4 2    18 , 7 2 5 , 9 6 9 1 6 , 5 9 7 , 1 6 9    13 , 9 9 6 , 8 6 9   6,965,483          281,685      (7,424,597)  Re s e r v e  @ 20 %  of  Op e r a t i n g  Co s t s 8, 9 4 2 , 8 0 0    9, 1 6 0 , 9 0 0    9, 9 3 0 , 7 0 0          10 , 0 7 2 , 9 8 0 9 , 9 1 2 , 2 7 3        10 , 1 3 4 , 7 0 0   10,468,925    10,781,93011,142,891  Ad j u s t  fo r  En c u m b r a n c e / C a r r y o v e r / D e b t  Sv c  Re s e r v e s (2 , 8 8 2 , 0 7 2 )   (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )   (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )    (2 , 0 8 7 , 6 0 0 )    (2,087,600)      (2,087,600) (2,087,600)  Re s e r v e  ab o v e / ( b e l o w )  po l i c y  le v e l 3, 9 6 5 , 1 0 0        1, 6 4 1 , 4 2 8        2, 3 5 0 , 7 4 2              6, 5 6 5 , 3 8 9        4, 5 9 7 , 2 9 6            1, 7 7 4 , 5 6 9          (5,591,042)          (12,587,845) (20,655,088)  FO R E C A S T 13B3 - 18