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Home My WebLink About10-20-2015 Public Comment, LA Times�2.00DESIGNATEDAREASFHGHER 02015WST M9 FRIDAY, OCTOBERILS, 2015 lathnes*eoxf ASP elf$ CA. How wet wiH it get? Chance of above - normal rainfall from January to March 2016 33%-39% Ocean temperatures How recent increases in ocean temperatures compare to strongest El Nifio on record. —2015 +•+`•1997 6 • F (Degrees above average) 5 2 f"li -r -T J F M A M J J A S 0 ND Sources: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center. Graphics reporting by RoN LIN Los Angeles Times WELCOME SIGN A new El Nino forecast shows the rain reaching into Northern California, where it's especially needed By Rong -Gong Lin II and Matt Stevens DIAMOND VALLEY LASE, Calif. — Fewplaces would benefit more from a winter of El Nino - driven rainstorms than this massive, rapidly depleting reservoir in the desert 90 miles south- east ofLos Angeles. On Thursday, a new federal fore- cast said El Nino is continuing to strengthen, with experts saying it's on track to produce potentially record rainfall. The new forecast is particularly significant because it shows the in- creased ,rain reaching far into North- ern California; to the mountain ranges and system of reservoirs that provide the state with huge amounts of its wa- ter. Earlier forecasts showed El Niho providing rain mainly to Southern California. If El Nino acts as it has before, "there will be a number of significant storms that will bring heavy rains. What that brings will be floods and mudslides," said Mike Halpert, depu- ty director of the National Weather Service's Climate [See El Nino, AM] IRFAN KHAN Los AngO" `1`itnPs WATER LEVELS in Lake Mead, which is held back by Hoover Dam, are now at their lowest since the dam was filled in the 1930s. Obama gi ves up on goal to end the wars he inherited Continuing mission in Afghanistan is vital to US., president says. BY CHRISTI PARSONS AND W.J. HENNIaAN WASHINGTON — Presi- dent Obama on Thursday set aside his last hope of completely withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghani- stan, sacrificing a long -de- sired goal in the interest of avoiding chaos in another former American war zone. Confronted almost daily withthe problems causedby the collapse of U.S.- trained secutityforces in Iraq, where he..has been forced to send additional American troops andwarplanes to combat Is- lamic State militants, Oba- ma was unwilling to risk a similar scenario unfolding in Afghanistan, aides said. But the decision to keep 9,800 U.S. troops in Afgbanl- stan for most of the rest of his tenure, the number drop- ping to 5,500 in 2017, means giving up a moment that Obama had hoped to mark before he left office: the end of all but a U.S. Embassy presence in the locales ofthe two wars he had inherited from President George W. Bush. After campaigning on a pledge to end the U.S. roles in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, he will hand both overto his successor. In a White House appear- ance Thursday, Obama in- sisted that he was "not dis- appointed" in the decision, saying he was "absolutely confident" that he was mak- ingthe right move. As your commander in chlet" he said, "I believe this mission is vital to our na- tional security interests in preventingterrorist attacks against our citizens and our nation." He emphasized that America's combat mission in Afghanistan is over, say- ing that the remaining troops will stick to pursuing potential terrorists and aid- ing and advising the Af- [See Afghanistan, A13] Esquith case is a high- profile test for LAUSD, panel BY HOWARD BLumz AND ZAHIRA TORRES When a colleague com- plained that We Esquith, the most celebrated teacher In Los Ang0Ia- '` °A -mp-'i a [E1 Nifio, from Al] Prediction Center. "We're more confident we're going to be seeing El Nifio through this winter." This prompted officials, who had generally been re- luctant to predict El Nino's effect on the drought, to say they expect the rains will ease the drought conditions but won't end them. "If the wettest year were to occur, we still wouldn't erase the deficit that's built up in the last four years;" said hydrologist Alan Haynes for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Los Angeles and San Di- ego have a 60%likelihood of a. wet winter, according to the latest forecast. In Silicon Valley; there is more than a 50% likelihood of a wet win- ter. In far Northern Califor- nia, the forecast calls for a slightly higher chance of a wet winter over a dry winter. The forecast for a wet winter now covers the mountains that feed California's most important reservoirs, Shasta Lake and Lake Oro- ville. But the state's water for- tunes — both north and south — have long been inex- tricably linked, as Diamond Valley Lake shows. Diamond Valley Lake is Southern California's larg- est reservoir— built two dec- ades ago to provide the re- gion with more reliable wa- ter storage and bolster its emergency supplies. It draws much of its supply from the far reaches of Northern California. In the last several years, the lake has been rapidly shrinking, falling to levels so low that the boat launch ramp doesn't even reach the water's edge. Officials fear prolonged drought condi- tions could eventually plunge the lake to emer- gency reserve levels — the amount needed to protect Southern California's water supply after an earthquake or other natural disaster. But a single year of heavy El Nino rains Is unlikely to fill up Diamond Valley Lake to full capacity, said Bob Muir, spokesman for the Metro- r {' _ ivvi�i rr� L J r AL 133133 Los Angeles Times A PLOW digs through the heavy snow that fell at Northern California's Lassen Volcanic National Park in the El Niiio season of 1997 -98. politan Water District of Southern California, which built the reservoir. So many wells and reservoirs farther north are so dry, it's hard to say how much Southern Cal - iforniawould get. "The big reservoirs — Oroville, Shasta and the many hundreds of small res- ervoirs up and down the state, as well as the ground - water basins —it just takes a long time to fill all that stuff up. It's never happened in one winter," said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Canada Flintridge. On a conference call-with., reporters Thursday, scien- tists said the amount of pre- cipitation California's Sierra Nevada has lost in the four - year drought has been 2.5 to 3 times the average annual precipitation. California's wettest year on record was 1982 -83, when El Nifio- fueled storms bat- tered the state. But the Sier- ra Nevada --where snow provides a major source of water— didn't quite get dou- ble its annual average pre- cipitation that year. The situation is also bad in the reservoirs along the Colorado River, which pro- vides drinking water to Southern California. Water levels at those res- ervoirs are at historic lows: Theylastf ledupduringthe 1997 -98 El Nifio storm,sea- son, but that was after a dec- ade of wet winters. Since then, water stored in the giant reservoirs held back by Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon Dam has been slowly disappearing over the last 16 years, from 95% ca- pacityin 1999 to about 45% in 2015. Water levels in Lake Mead, which is held back by Hoover Dam; are now at their lowest since the dam was filled in the 1930,9, and could fall below a critical lev, el in the next fewyears. "When will Lake Mead fill up again? Probably not in our lifetimes," said. Bill Ha- sencamp, the MWD's point person for the Colorado River. "If you saw it = save those pictures." Persistent drought in the Colorado River area has continued since 2000 — the driest 16 -year period in more than a century of historical records. Climate change is ex- pected to make matters worse, with hotter weather drying out the land, reduc- ingthe amount ofwaterthat gets into the river. Also, be- ginningin the 2000s, Nevada and Arizona started to take more of their allocated sup- ply of water. E Nifio is a weather phe- nomenon that involves warming sea - surface tem- peratures and a change in wind that alters weather patterns in the atmosphere worldwide. Even if El Nino turns out to bring heavy rains to Cali- fornia this winter, it could prove disappointing. Ideally, precipitation would fall in Northern Cali- fornia's mountains as most- ly snow, so it can be kept fro - zenformarny months and re- fill reservoirs at a slow, gen- tle pace as it melts in the springand summer. But in recent years, ab- normally hot winters have brought precipitation that has come down there as mostly rain — a big problem because too much rain aL at once, even in a drought, will force dam officials to flush out excess water to ensure dams don't overflow and have enough capacity to keep incoming floodwaters from destroying cities down- stream Scientists say they don't know if the northern mountains will see more snow or more rain. The other big problem is the intensity of this four - year drought. So it will al- most certainly take years to catch up — and will require years of consistent above - average rains to get there. It has happened before. Most of the 1980s and 1990s were very wet years for Cali- fornia, except for a brief, in- tense drought between 1987 and 1992. The 1980s ended a multi- decade dry period be- tween the 1940s and 1970s, Patzert said. But the arrival of a big El Nino doesn't mean the start to years ofplenty. In fact, the end of, the 1997 -98 El Nino brought El Nino's sister, La Nina, "the demon of drought," Patzert said. So it's entirelypossible that this El Nifio could be a one -year reprieve, and more years of drought could follow. That would be devastat- ing for Diamond Valley Lake, which is now at its lowest lev- el since it started filling up with water. Created by combining two desert valleys, it is capa- ble of holding more water than Lake Havasu and was fntendedtobe arecreational resource for Riverside County. But on one morning this week, it was desolate. The boat storage yard was most- ly empty. And a small crew worked quietly to extend the boat ramp even farther into the shrinkinglake. rong- gong.lin @latimes.com