HomeMy WebLinkAboutARC & PC Correspondence (Shanbrom)From:
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2016 6:38 AM
To: Advisory Bodies FEB 2 2 2016
Subject: Fwd: Building Moratorium is necessary
To: Planning Commission and ARC
-----Original Message -----
From: shanbrom <
To: council <council slocity.org>, klichtig <klichtig@slocity.o3rp; afloyd <afloyd@slocity.org>
Sent: Tue, Feb 9, 2016 6:56 am
Subject: Building Moratorium is necessary
Dear Council, Staff,
I have met three times now with city water staff and am convinced that the city has no reality -based planning in
place regarding our water resources at build -out. By "survive" I mean the point at which SLO is entirely out of water
supply.
The Deputy Director of Water, Aaron Floyd's implicit position is that the city can survive 8 years of a drought such as the
one we've been experiencing for about 4.5 years, (60% of normal rainfall). My calculations, which are based on source
data and city -provided data, are that the city can survive only a 7 -year drought (60% of normal). See below.
Each council person and staffer I have asked has given me a different number of residents at build out, 53,000-58,000
residents. Using the 58,000 figure and assuming growth of water use to be proportional that means that we would only
have a 5.4 year supply at build out. Yes, new housing units are required to use somewhat less than existing housing but
this may be more than offset by high proportions of commercial buildout and a rash of annexations from the airport area.
We would be within months of running out of water at this point if the city population were 58,000. The city council
must, in good conscience emplace a building moratorium immediately, at least until a long-range water plan is place.
Here are my calculations. Please understand that they are approximate and rounded off, partly due to an absence of data
and partly to make it easier to follow the numbers:
Lake Nacimiento overtopped in March 2011 at 378,000 acre-feet. Every drought year the lake as fallen 70,000-120,000
af. It fell to just 67,000 of when the winter rains began this November. As of this moment, after about normal rainfall to
this point, it has only recovered to 84,000 af. The outlook for February rain is low.
It is looking possible, if not likely, that Lake Nacimiento will not recover to 100,000 of and that it will effectively go dry
by Oct. 2016. At that point we will have a tiny remnant of, if any water at all in, Santa Margarita Lake, now at 13%, 3000
af.
We would then be down to about a year's worth of water -4000 of in Whale Rock Reservoir and about 1000 of of
pumpable ground water. That would take us to Oct. 2017, not including the winter rains of 2016-2017.
If those rains fail (60% of normal), the city runs out of water some time shortly after Oct. 2017, not accounting for 2017-
2018 rains. If those rains fail (60% of normal) we are out of water in early 2018.
Hence, under this continuing drought scenario, we will have gone from all city reservoirs overtopping in March
2011 to being completely out of water in approximately March 2018.
That means we can only survive a 7 -year drought, not the 8 -year drought that city staff believes we can survive.
At build -out that means we could only survive a 5.4 year drought.
Some climate models predict that San Diego's climate will migrate north to San Francisco by the end of the century. On
the face of it it does make sense that global warming means that climate zones migrate north, that San
Diego's desert climate becomes SLO's climate. In fact, last summer, with its record warm and unheard of heavy
monsoonal rains seem a meaningful harbinger.
The cautionary principle demands that we plan for a much drier climate than SLO has historically enjoyed. In any
event, until the city has grappled with these issues and can reasonably project demand as well as supply at build out this
council is compelled to institute a building moratorium immediately.
I repeat:
We would be within months of completely running out of water at this point if the city population were
58,000. The city council must, in good conscience, institute a building moratorium
immediately, at least until a long-range water plan is place. Without such a plan residents will
certainly suffer higher prices. Put another way, Why are residents paying a 20% drought surcharge while we are
busily adding population?
Thank you for your consideration of these facts and the opinion draw from them. If staff has additional information to add, I
would be happy to amend my calculations. Even it were to be demonstrated that we can survive an 8 year drought at
current population, we are flirting with disaster in consideration of potential climate change and buildout. At buildout we
could only survive a 5.4 year drought by my figures and a 6.3 year drought by city figures. Either way, with (;lirrnale
change, we are cutting it way, way too close.
Please do not approve anymore building until this is sorted out. Thank you.
Sincerely,
Bob Shanbrom
SLO