HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-01-2016 Public Comment, LucasCOUNCIL MEETING:] [ (o
MAR 0 1 2016 ITEM NO..,r�_Lr_�wns.
Your Honor, Council Members
I'm Bob Lucas: 40 year resident with a drinking problem
Since I talked to you last meeting about the water issues, I have dug
more deeply into the documents and data. Most of the city
documents deal with policies and allocations rather than actual
water amounts called wet water, and its flow.
So to understand the flow of wet water, I concocted a three-year
scenario in which I projected water flow beginning today and ending
on February 28 of 2019. 1 sent it to you yesterday, and I hope
you've had a chance to look at it, if only briefly.
In that analysis I assumed that this drought will continue over those
three years, giving us an average of 13" of rain for those years.
What I found, in short, is this: in the first year, Nacimiento would
give us enough water to cover our needs, assuming we can
negotiate a contract for an extra 40% to which under normal
circumstances we would be entitled. Then in the second year, we
would still be able to rely on Nacimiento, but this time, we would
have to use a special, perhaps one-time only gambit, to dip into the
Lake's minimum pool, for a years worth of water. Again, we would
hope to get that extra 40%, though it might be trickier to get
approval for that. (We'll be competing with a lot of fish.)
Third year would take us to Whale Rock, which would supply us for
that year, more or less, depending on a number of variables. Then
our reservoirs are effectively out of water. Now, they are 98% of our
annual water supply. They'll be empty. This after we as citizens
have already reduced our water usage 50% over current levels. And
with no factor included for new development.
Some say it's not likely to happen, but consider this:
EI nino had a 95% probability of occurring. That is, a bet against it
had only one chance in 20 of winning. Now it looks like the odds are
reversed. (We all hope fervently that .John Lindsey is right about
next week.)
In this context, when you consider the el nino bet, I ask what are the
chances that over the next one, two, or three years we will continue
to average only 13 inches of rain?? That is to continue the pattern
of the last four years for another three years?
Are the chances
1in20?
1 in 10?
1in5?
Or is 13 inches of rain some approximation of the new normal
because of climate change??
There really is no way to know. And how did we get to this point?
Is this anyone's fault?
I don't believe so. I believe that relying on Nacimiento, that went on
line five years ago, to supply our forseeable future water needs was
eminently reasonable. But if we look back at the last four years, we
have to rethink that now.
I believe we all have a drinking a problem and it must be addressed.
Please put our water supply on the City Council agenda soon.