HomeMy WebLinkAbout04-27-2016 PC Correspondence Item 2 (Shanbrom)MEETING: �2C Q t'z_ok (�
APR 2 8 2016
From:
Sent: Wednesday, April 27, 2016 6:01 PM
To: Advisory Bodies;
Subject: Water supply, April 27 Planning Commission
Dear PC, ARC and CC,
Attached please find data provided by German Criollo, associate hydrologist, of the Monterey County
water board staff. It includes absolutely critical data about the dwindling supply to Lake Nacimiento. As
you can see in this current drought the inflow totaled just 9,000 AFY to 63,000 AFY. The 2014 Climate
Assessment predicts at least a 5-10% decrease in rainfall to our area by about 2075, and admits that if
the estimate is off it is off on the low side. The watershed of Lake Nacimiento is 230,000 acres. Just a
12% decrease of rainfall to the watershed (avg. 26 inches/year), 3 inches per year less, would have left
Nacimiento with no inflow, ZERO INFLOW, in the last five seasons. This corresponds to 57,500 AFY less
supply, adjusted for soil hydration demands.
THIS IS AN ASTOUNDING FACT. AND IT SHOULD BE A SOBERING ONE -
Just as important, if the Naci-San Antonio Interlake tunnel had been complete this drought would likely
have started not with Naci full at 378,000 AF, but at 50% of capacity, about 190,000 AF.
Naci, which is not under our control, but Monterey's, would likely have been discharged to downstream
farmers and to steelhead to minimum pool within a year, maybe two, leaving SLO with ZERO SUPPLY
from Nacimiento for 3-4 years at this point. The Salinas reservoir would be useless at this point. We
would only have Whale Rock to depend out for the projected buildout demand of about 7500 AFY. In the
BEST CASE scenario, Whale Rock would last only 3.3 years from overtopping, an unlikelihood.
Thus, with a 12% decrease in rainfall and a similar drought as the current one, SLO would have run out of
water by this time if we continue the current thrall to build out.
Please do as Mayor Marx recommends: Plan for the worst and hope for the best. Please pause and
take this data and best -science information under vigorous consideration. Future residents, even current
residents will thank you for your prudent consideration and deliberations. Thank you.
Data for
Nacimiento
Reservoir from
water year
2007 to 2015
Water Year
Total Inflow (acre feet)
Total Releases (acre feet)
Precipitation (inches)
Pan evaporation (inches)
2007
25,103
170,847
7.02
f 75.55
2008
150,404
132,706
13.27
73.91
2009
58,125
127,795
9.77
76.75
2010
285,727
163,111
22.39
67.58
2011
343,135
189,731
22.91
60.46
2012
50,268
163,680
8.48
64.49
2013
63,666
84,119
5.60
65.10
2014
9,052
45,820
5.45
66.44
2015
59,485
29,443
11.73
63.57
2016
68,000
-----Original Message -----
From: Robert Shanbrom <
To: Allan Cooper < ; Bob Lucas <
Sent: Fri, Apr 22, 2016 10:49 am
Subject: Fwd: Nacimiento Reservoir data and link to documents being reference in the development of
computer model
Sent from my iPhone
Begin forwarded message:
From: "Criollo, German Ext.4941" <
Date: April 19, 2016 at 3:48:25 PM PDT
To: "'
Subject: Nacimiento Reservoir data and link to documents being reference in the development of
computer model
Bob,
It was nice talking to you today. Please see the attached Excel file with the data you requested.
I thought that we had a link with information on the development of the computer model that I
mentioned to you. What we have really have is a web page with technical documents being referenced
in the development of the computer model. I'm sharing that with you below:
httJwww.mcwra.co.monterey.ca.us/.srgb,tac model sr b tac model. h
(�e mz4i/ E. GrCcL , PE
Associate Hydrologist
Monterey County
Water Resources Agency
893 Blanco Cir
Salinas, CA 93901
Phone (831) 755-4860
Fax (831) 424-7935