HomeMy WebLinkAbout05-11-2016 PC Correspondence Item 01 (Cooper)�1 RECEIVED
MeetingL t'C 5 ` 11 - 12 CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO
Item. MAY 10 2016
Date: 05/09/16
To: City of San Luis Obispo Planning Commission COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
From: Allan Cooper
Regarding: Business Item 2 - General Plan Annual Report for 2015
This coming Wednesday, you will be reviewing two important progress reports on affordable
housing and the jobs/housing balance in this General Plan Annual Report.
Summary:
As shown in Table 7 in your staff report, 33 housing units, or about 18 percent of all housing
units added in the City since 2014 were affordable to extremely -low, very -low, low and moderate
income households. In its first two years (2014-2015), the City is at 16 percent of achieving its
Quantified Objectives for housing through 2019. The City needs to do better than this. However,
progress can be made in addressing unmet demand for affordable housing if only we could
stop adding more low-paying jobs to our economy. Build out of all projects currently in the
"pipeline" and within the City limits of San Luis Obispo will result in twice the number of new jobs
created than can be accommodated by new housing and of these new jobs created, one third
will be at very low income. This will not only increase the workforce population needing very low
income housing but will result in long commutes thereby increasing carbon emissions.
Each year the Council has considered whether or not to implement limits to new non-residential
floor area and has decided against establishing limits. If limits are established they would only
apply to certain types of new commercial floor area, such as new offices or new retail
establishments outside of the downtown core. I am urging you to recommend to Council that
they implement limits on the growth of non-residential floor area specific to the
hospitality, retail and assisted care industries as these industries, at build out, will
employ an additional 3,500 very low income level employees thereby exacerbating our
unmet demand for affordable housing.
Introduction
San Luis Obispo is moving ahead full throttle on new development, including ten hotels (840
more hotel rooms) and a 341 bed assisted care facility. These projects, along with retail, employ
a high percentage of very low income workers. This rush for new development has been egged
on by two of four LUCE Update EIR "overriding considerations". The LUCE Update EIR
enumerates multiple significant adverse effects that will result from its 2035 build out
projections. The Council determined that these significant effects, which cannot be mitigated,
were acceptable based on four "overriding considerations". Two of these "overriding
considerations" call for 1) a jobs/housing balance and 2) more high density, compact workforce
housing. Both considerations will presumably reduce commute trips and thereby reduce carbon
emissions.
But the types and sheer quantity of projects in the current "pipeline" achieve neither of these
goals and in fact work against the realization of these goals. Permit me to define what I
mean by "pipeline projects". "Pipeline projects" include projects that have come before the city
seeking approval, have already received some approvals, have been permitted but not built and
those that are currently under construction.
These projects include approximately 4,500 more housing units, roughly 9,700 more residents
and 2,800,000 sq. ft. of non-residential development bringing an additional 9,600 jobs to SLO.
Because there will be over twice the number of jobs to the number of housing units, these new
developments will only perpetuate our current jobs/housing imbalance.
Moreover, of these 9,600 new jobs, roughly 3,500 will be at very low income level (these include
employees working in the hospitality, retail and assisted care industries). Yet, the 4,500 new
housing units will only provide us with a 5% pro ratio of 225 very low income units leaving 3,225
additional poverty level employees without affordable housing. In 2008, 8,823 existing
households in SLO were earning less than $35,000 a year qualifying them for very low income
units. So the unmet demand for very low income housing will increase - not decrease -
exponentially.
Are there any solutions out there?
Assuming we will have the infrastructure (particularly water) to support more growth, the
following may be solutions to the lack of affordable housing:
• To deny permits to all non-residential development, particularly those non-residential
developments that would create very low income jobs.
• To require developers to pro rate more than 5% of their housing to very low income
residents.
• To require the developer, who is creating these very low income jobs, to provide within the
city limits a comparable number of very low income housing units. The City could also
provide compelling incentives in place of this mandate. This would be similar to the Nipomo
high density, farmworker housing project that had recently been proposed.
• To give hiring preference to those very low income employees who live within the city.
Corroborating data
The following addresses the projected number of housing units and population in 2035 based
on SLO's amended housing unit growth cap (a 2010 Housing Element amendment), the
approximate number of housing units in the "pipeline" (a number which nearly meets' the
Housing Element's projection for 2035), the square foot of commercial space in the "pipeline",
the square foot of office space in the "pipeline", the number of hotel rooms in the "pipeline", the
projected number of additional residents and employees in the "pipeline" and our projected jobs/
housing imbalance (which will remain more or less the same).
SLO's Housing Unit Growth Cap
The General Plan says that "the City's housing supply shall grow no faster than one percent per
year." This policy was modified in 2010 to an average of one percent per year over the five-
year Housing Element planning period. The policy change responded to slow residential growth
trends combined with the phasing and financing plans incorporated into the Margarita and
Orcutt Specific Plan Areas. The Residential Growth Management Regulations requires each
specific plan area to adopt a phasing schedule for residential growth to ensure that established
thresholds in the Land Use Element are not exceeded. As shown in Table A-18, annual
increases in the number of dwellings have averaged 0.45 percent over the past ten years. Units
1 If no more housing projects were approved from this day on through to 2035 - 19 years from
now - we would have 25,515 housing units in SLO (i.e., by the time all the above projects in the
pipeline are completed and excluding the Froom Ranch assisted elder care units). The City's
"build out" for 2035 (employing its more liberal growth cap target) is approximately 26,376. This
would mean that the City could only permit 861 more housing units over the next 19 years!
that are deed -restricted as affordable to extremely low, very low, low and moderate income
households are not factored into the Growth Management Schedule because they are exempt
from the Growth Management Ordinance. Dwellings built in the downtown area are also
exempt.
See: http://www.slocity.orq/Home/ShowDocument?id=3728 &
http://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=5204 &
http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PUenvironmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+-+Final
+EI R/4.12+Population+and+Housing.pdf
Residential Development — Net Change Due To Completed Construction 2003 — 2013
2010
89 units
.27%
2011
85 units
.20%
2012
34 units
.17%
2013
92 units
.38%
Unit shortfall
# units we should have had in 2013
1%= 330
1% = 425
1% = 200
1% = 242
897
897 + 20,697 = 21,594
6.1 Consistent with the growth management portion of its Land Use Element and the availability
of adequate resources, the City will plan to accommodate up to 1,144 dwelling units between
January 2014 and June 2019 in accordance with the assigned Regional Housing Needs
Allocation.
# units we should have in 2019 = 21,594 + 1,144 = 22,738
Build -Out Housing Units We Should Have By 2035 Based On SLO's Housing Unit Growth
Cap:
22,738 x 116% (1 % growth 2019-2035) = 26,376 projected no. units
Disclaimers: This number would likely be higher as I did not compound the 1 % growth on either
an annualized or 5 year basis. This number would likely be even higher as I did not factor in
exemptions for downtown dwellings and affordable to very -low-income households.
Housing Unit - Population Conversion:
26,376 units x 2.35 household size =
New housing units in the "pipeline":
Avila Ranch Specific Plan
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
Margarita Area Specific Plan
Orcutt Area Specific Plan - Righetti/Jones
Ranch Development
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Tumbling Waters (861 & 953 Orcutt)
Creekston (791 Orcutt)
61,984 population in 2035
720 units
500 units
868 units
370 units (or 731 units)
275 units
275 independent care apts. (one occupant units)
341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units)
264 units
Chinatown Project
Garden Street Terraces Project
Monterey Place Project
71 Palomar Ave. Project
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone)
San Luis Square Project
The Junction Project
SLO Terrace Project
Caudill Mixed Use Project
The Yard Project
860 Humbert Project
Toscano Moresco Project
Mangano Homes Tract
Laurel Creek Project
Wingate Homes Project
Imel Project
Coker Ellsworth Project
Fremont Square Project
460 Marsh Street Project
Pacific Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC)
Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh)
Iron Works (3680 Broad)
Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa
Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad)
Total
Total existing plus new
Total additional acre foot water demand
Housing Unit - Resident Conversion:
3,881 x 2.35 + 616 single occupant apts. _
46,377 current residents =
LUCE projected 2035 build -out pop.
Total current no. units
% increase in no. units
16 units
8 units
23 units
41 units
26, 000 sq. ft
48 units
69 units
17 units
36 units
43 units
20 units
18 units
177 units
117 units
78 units
18 units
35 units
21 units
4 units
9 units
4 units
46 units
2 units
8 units
= 26 units?
4,497 units (166 units exempted from growth
cap)
20,697 + 4,497 = 25,194 units
4,497 units x 1/3 = 1,499 additional acre feet
9,736 more residents +
56,113 residents = 21 % increase in
population when all above projects are completed
58,626
20,697 units (2013)
22% increase in housing units
New retail/commercial space in the "pipeline":
Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http.1Avww.s1ochy.orcrl
homelshowdo+cument?id=6763
Avila Ranch Specific Plan 15, 000 sq. ft. (or 20, 000 sq. ft.)
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan 200,000 sq. ft.
Orcutt Area Specific Plan - Righetti/Jones
Ranch 15,0 70 sq. ft. (or 8, 000 sq. ft.)
Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan 370,000 sq. ft. (Table 2-8 http://
www. s to coc r n t V: ca. go v/Assets/PL!
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Chinatown Project (UC)
Garden Street Terraces Project (UC)
Monterey Place Project (E)
University Square Project (UC)
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Firestone)
San Luis Square Project (579/590 Marsh)
The Junction Project (2120 S. Barbara)
Caudill Mixed Use Project
Long-Bonetti Ranch Market Place
Airport Business Center (UC)
Fremont Square Project
Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad)
581 SOHO (581 Higuera) (completed)
Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh)
Orcutt & Broad (791 Orcutt)
956 Monterey (E)
Iron Works (3680 Broad)
Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa)
Digital West (600 Tank Farm) (E)
Laurel Lane (1241 Laurel Lane)
Total
Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion:
978,251 sq.ft. divided by 400 =
environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farmlvolume+l+-
+Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description. pdf)
45,000 sq. ft.
51,150 sq. ft.
14, 341 sq. ft.
16,400 sq. ft.
20, 000 sq. ft.
20, 000 sq. ft. (E 10, 000 sq. ft. prior to Firestone)
21,322 sq. ft. (or 13,190 sq. ft.)
5,800 sq. ft.
5,327 sq. ft
19,0 79 sq. ft. (or 46,932 sq. ft.)
75, 000 sq. ft. (or 47, 000 sq. ft.)
7,900 sq. ft.
9,500 sq. ft. (or 7, 000 sq. ft.)
13, 000 sq. ft.
4,202 sq. ft.
4, 000 sq. ft. (or 10, 000 sq. ft.)
5,180 sq. ft.
4,400 sq. ft.
7,150 sq. ft.
80, 000 sq. ft.
9,500 sq. ft.
978,251 sq.ft.
2,446 more commercial employees
New manufacturing space in the pipeline:
Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) hUn:7lwww slocci;y.araJ
home/sho wdocument?id=6763
279 Bridge
SLO Brew Production
Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion:
54,309 sq.ft. divided by 500 =
23,309 sq. ft.
31,000 sq.ft. brewery
109 more manufacturing employees
New institutional space in the "pipeline":
Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) httpYAyww.slocityaral
&Qjme/showdQcument?id--j5763
Froom Ranch Specific Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units)
x 1.16 = 396 assisted care employees
French Hospital (UC) 31,471 sq. ft.
divided by 1, 000 sq. ft. x 2.6 = 88 hospital workers
Homeless Services Center (40 Prado) (E) 20, 000 sq. ft.
150 beds divided by 15 = 10 homeless shelter staff
Old Mission School (774 Palm) (UC) 4,000 sq. ft.
4000 divided by 122 = 33 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff
SLO Classical Academy (110 Grand) 4,182 sq. ft.
4182 divided by 122 = 34 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff
New office space in the "pipeline":
Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28)
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan 150,000 sq. ft.
Airport Area Specific Plan (RASP) 3,361,090 sq. ft. NI (Table 4.1 n 2005 Version
(includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan) San Luis Obispo Airport Area Specific Plan
Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan
Chinatown Project (UC)
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Firestone)
Aerovista Place Project (E)
Aerovista Office Buildings (E)
Fremont Square Project
Mind Body (651 Tank Farm) (UC)
Pacific Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC)
Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh)
Total
Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion:
747,245 sq.ft. divided by 125 =
Land Use Program And Development
Capacities: http:Ilwww slocity.org/home/
showdocument?id=4294)
363,000 sq. ft. (Table 2-9 http://
www slocoun(y ca.govIAssets/PLI
environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/I/olume+l+-
+Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description. pdf)
5,630 sq. ft.
33, 000 sq. ft.
37,230 sq. ft.
36,833 sq. ft. (or 44, 000 sq. ft.)
49,400 sq. ft.
60, 000 sq. ft.
8,050 sq. ft.
4,102 sq. ft.
747,245 sq.ft. (AASP sq.ft. not included)
5,978 more office employees
New hotel development in the "pipeline":
Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28)hUp:IOwww.sro ityxr i
Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan
115 rooms
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
200 rooms
Chinatown Project (UC)
78 rooms
Garden Street Terraces Project (UC)
64 rooms
Monterey Place Project (E)
11 rooms
Motel Inn Project (E)
52 rooms
Monterey Hotel (1845 Monterey) (E)
102 rooms (60,368 sq. ft.)
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Firestone)
80 rooms
Calle Joaquin Hotel Development
114 rooms (contested by S. Marx) (56,975 sq.ft.)
Granada Hotel Addition (E)
22 rooms (9,871 sq. ft.)
Total 838 rooms
Hotel Room - Workforce Conversion:
838 rooms x 0.625 = 524 more hotel employees
Total additional employees
Total employees
Resident - Workforce Conversion:
U.S. census: 60.5% pop. in labor force
9,557 more employees
31,000 current + 9,557 = 40,557 or 31 %
increase
9,557 x .605 = 5,782 new residents in labor force
Total Increase In Workforce Residing In SLO:
6,700 current + 5,782 new = 12,482 out of a projected 40,557 employees = jobs
to housing imbalance of 31% compared to 22%
currently