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Home My WebLink About05-25-2016 PC Correspondence Item 02 (Cooper)Date: May 22, 2016 To: Planning Commission Re: Growth Management Study Session From: Allan Cooper Your staff report states that “…the City is planning for full build-out by ensuring that development proceeds in a manner that can be supported by available resources, and all appropriate measures to ensure that City goals and objectives for housing, jobs-to-housing balance, transportation, air quality, water resources, public safety, parks and recreation, and open space conservation (to name just a few areas of consideration) are met through the implementation of the General Plan.” What is critically missing from this staff report is an estimate of the number of jobs generated by the projected growth in non-residential square footage. My concern is that build-out, based on the number of jobs generated relative to housing, will actually exacerbate the job-to-housing balance, resulting in more commutes. This will further compromise our air quality. Let me explain. Staff correctly states the following: “If all projects in the attached spreadsheet are developed over the anticipated build-out period of 2035, the City will have added 2,054,369 square feet of non-residential square footage since LUE adoption in 2014. This equates to an average of approximately 102,700 square feet per year; a 0.89% average annual growth rate, which is below the average growth rate of one percent per year.” But this 0.89% average annual growth in non-residential square footage will result, over 19 years, in 9,557 more employees or 503 more employees per year (see my attached calculations related to employment ) - an annual increase over the current workforce of 1.6% per year. 1 On the other hand, the 4,796 additional housing units projected for 2035 will average 252 units per year or a 1.2 % average annual growth rate in housing. Based on SLO County averages of 1.15 employees per household, 4,796 more housing units could accommodate an additional 5,501 employees - nowhere near enough housing to accommodate the 9,557 more employees generated by this additional non-residential square footage. If we are truly serious about addressing our jobs/housing imbalance then I ask you to recommend to Council that they not only consider establishing limits for the rate of non- residential development if the increase in non-residential ﬂoor area for any ﬁve-year period I am also attaching a correction sheet based on comparing my data with Michael Codron’s. Michael 1 included nine non-residential projects that I missed. However, I have identiﬁed 17 projects not included in his spreadsheet. Admittedly, several of these projects may not have been included because they have either been abandoned or are now not only permitted but also occupied. Michael included 15 residential projects (plus the estimated 280 single family units) in his spreadsheet that I missed (518 units). However, I have identiﬁed 4 projects not included in his matrix (644 units). Considering that I underestimated (based on this new data coming from Michael) the number of residential units for projects that I already knew about, this discrepancy will most likely result in a "wash". exceeds ﬁve percent but that Council should also consider the annual growth in jobs relative to the annual growth in housing. The following addresses the projected number of housing units and population in 2035 based on SLO’s amended housing unit growth cap (a 2010 Housing Element amendment), the approximate number of housing units in the pipeline (a number which nearly meets the Housing Element’s projection for 2035), the square foot of commercial 1 space in the pipeline, the square foot of ofﬁce space in the pipeline, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline, the projected number of additional residents and employees in the pipeline, our projected jobs/housing imbalance (which will remain relatively unchanged) and the projected additional acre/feet of water consumption required to service all of the above projects in the pipeline with a worst case timeline for operational minimum pool. Submitted by Allan Cooper, May 14, 2016. SLO’s Housing Unit Growth Cap The General Plan says that “the City’s housing supply shall grow no faster than one percent per year.” This policy was modiﬁed in 2010 to an average of one percent per year over the ﬁve- year Housing Element planning period. The policy change responded to slow residential growth trends combined with the phasing and ﬁnancing plans incorporated into the Margarita and Orcutt Speciﬁc Plan Areas. The Residential Growth Management Regulations requires each speciﬁc plan area to adopt a phasing schedule for residential growth to ensure that established thresholds in the Land Use Element are not exceeded. As shown in Table A-18, annual increases in the number of dwellings have averaged 0.45 percent over the past ten years. Units that are deed-restricted as affordable to extremely low, very low, low and moderate income households are not factored into the Growth Management Schedule because they are exempt from the Growth Management Ordinance. Dwellings built in the downtown area are also exempt. See: http://www.slocity.org/Home/ShowDocument?id=3728 & http://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=5204 & http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+-+Final +EIR/4.12+Population+and+Housing.pdf Residential Development – Net Change Due To Completed Construction 2003 – 2013 2010 89 units .27% 1% = 330 2011 85 units .20% 1% = 425 2012 34 units .17% 1% = 200 2013 92 units .38% 1% = 242 Unit shortfall 897 # units we should have had in 2013 897 + 20,697 = 21,594 If no more housing projects were approved from this day on through to 2035 - 19 years from 1 now - we would have 25,515 housing units in SLO (i.e., by the time all the above projects in the pipeline are completed and excluding the Froom Ranch assisted elder care units). The City’s “build out” for 2035 (employing its more liberal growth cap target) is approximately 26,376. This would mean that the City could only permit 861 more housing units over the next 19 years! 6.1 Consistent with the growth management portion of its Land Use Element and the availability of adequate resources, the City will plan to accommodate up to 1,144 dwelling units between January 2014 and June 2019 in accordance with the assigned Regional Housing Needs Allocation. # units we should have in 2019 =21,594 + 1,144 = 22,738 Build-Out Housing Units We Should Have By 2035 Based On SLO’s Housing Unit Growth Cap: 22,738 x 116% (1% growth 2019-2035) = 26,376 projected no. units Disclaimers: This number would likely be higher as I did not compound the 1% growth on either an annualized or 5 year basis. This number would likely be even higher as I did not factor in exemptions for downtown dwellings and affordable to very-low-income households. Housing Unit - Population Conversion: 26,376 units x 2.35 household size = 61,984 population in 2035 New housing units in the pipeline: Avila Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 720 units San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 500 units Margarita Area Speciﬁc Plan 868 units Orcutt Area Speciﬁc Plan - Righetti/Jones Ranch Development 370 units (or 731 units) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 275 units Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 275 independent care apts. (one occupant units) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) Tumbling Waters (861 & 953 Orcutt) Creekston (791 Orcutt) 264 units Chinatown Project 16 units Garden Street Terraces Project 8 units Monterey Place Project 23 units 71 Palomar Ave. Project 41 units Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Andrew Firestone) 26,000 sq.ft. = 26 units? San Luis Square Project 48 units The Junction Project 69 units SLO Terrace Project 17 units Caudill Mixed Use Project 36 units The Yard Project 43 units 860 Humbert Project 20 units Toscano Moresco Project 18 units Mangano Homes Tract 177 units Laurel Creek Project 117 units Wingate Homes Project 78 units Imel Project 18 units Coker Ellsworth Project 35 units Fremont Square Project 21 units 460 Marsh Street Project 4 units Paciﬁc Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC) 9 units Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4 units Iron Works (3680 Broad) 46 units Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa 2 units Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad) 8 units Total 4,497 units (166 units exempted from growth cap) Total existing plus new 20,697 + 4,497 = 25,194 units Total additional acre foot water demand 4,497 units x 1/3 = 1,499 additional acre feet Housing Unit - Resident Conversion: 3,881 x 2.35 + 616 single occupant apts. = 9,736 more residents + 46,377 current residents = 56,113 residents = 21% increase in population when all above projects are completed LUCE projected 2035 build-out pop. 58,626 Total current no. units 20,697 units (2013) % increase in no. units 22% increase in housing units New retail/commercial space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Avila Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 15,000 sq.ft. (or 20,000 sq.ft.) San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 200,000 sq.ft. Orcutt Area Speciﬁc Plan - Righetti/Jones Ranch 15,070 sq.ft. (or 8,000 sq.ft.) Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 370,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-8 http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 45,000 sq.ft. Chinatown Project (UC) 51,150 sq.ft. Garden Street Terraces Project (UC) 14, 341 sq.ft. Monterey Place Project (E) 16,400 sq.ft. University Square Project (UC) 20,000 sq.ft. Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 20,000 sq.ft. (E 10,000 sq.ft. prior to Firestone) San Luis Square Project (579/590 Marsh) 21,322 sq.ft. (or 13,190 sq.ft.) The Junction Project (2120 S. Barbara) 5,800 sq.ft. Caudill Mixed Use Project 5,327 sq.ft Long-Bonetti Ranch Market Place 19,079 sq.ft. (or 46,932 sq.ft.) Airport Business Center (UC) 75,000 sq.ft. (or 47,000 sq.ft.) Fremont Square Project 7,900 sq.ft. Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad) 9,500 sq.ft. (or 7,000 sq.ft.) 581 SOHO (581 Higuera) (completed) 13,000 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,202 sq.ft. Orcutt & Broad (791 Orcutt) 4,000 sq.ft. (or 10,000 sq.ft.) 956 Monterey (E) 5,180 sq.ft. Iron Works (3680 Broad) 4,400 sq.ft. Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa) 7,150 sq.ft. Digital West (600 Tank Farm) (E) 80,000 sq.ft. Laurel Lane (1241 Laurel Lane) 9,500 sq.ft. Total 978,251 sq.ft. Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 978,251 sq.ft. divided by 400 = 2,446 more commercial employees New manufacturing space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 279 Bridge 23,309 sq.ft. SLO Brew Production 31,000 sq.ft. brewery Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 54,309 sq.ft. divided by 500 = 109 more manufacturing employees New institutional space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) x 1.16 =396 assisted care employees French Hospital (UC) 31,471 sq.ft. divided by 1,000 sq.ft. x 2.6 = 88 hospital workers Homeless Services Center (40 Prado) (E) 20,000 sq.ft. 150 beds divided by 15 = 10 homeless shelter staff Old Mission School (774 Palm) (UC) 4,000 sq.ft. 4000 divided by 122 = 33 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff SLO Classical Academy (110 Grand) 4,182 sq.ft. 4182 divided by 122 = 34 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff New ofﬁce space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 150,000 sq.ft. Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan (AASP) 3,361,090 sq.ft. NI (Table 4.1 ñ 2005 Version (includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan)San Luis Obispo Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan Land Use Program And Development Capacities: http://www.slocity.org/home/ showdocument?id=4294) Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 363,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-9 http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) Chinatown Project (UC) 5,630 sq.ft. Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 33,000 sq.ft. Aerovista Place Project (E) 37,230 sq.ft. Aerovista Ofﬁce Buildings (E) 36,833 sq.ft. (or 44,000 sq.ft.) Fremont Square Project 49,400 sq.ft. Mind Body (651 Tank Farm) (UC) 60,000 sq.ft. Paciﬁc Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC) 8,050 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,102 sq.ft. Total 747,245 sq.ft. (AASP sq.ft. not included) Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 747,245 sq.ft. divided by 125 = 5,978 more ofﬁce employees New hotel development in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 115 rooms San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 200 rooms Chinatown Project (UC) 78 rooms Garden Street Terraces Project (UC) 64 rooms Monterey Place Project (E) 11 rooms Motel Inn Project (E) 52 rooms Monterey Hotel (1845 Monterey) (E) 102 rooms (60,368 sq.ft.) Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 80 rooms Calle Joaquin Hotel Development 114 rooms (contested by S. Marx) (56,975 sq.ft.) Granada Hotel Addition (E) 22 rooms (9,871 sq.ft.) Total 838 rooms Hotel Room - Workforce Conversion: 838 rooms x 0.625 = 524 more hotel employees Total additional employees 9,557 more employees Total employees 31,000 current + 9,557 = 40,557 or 31% increase Resident - Workforce Conversion: U.S. census: 60.5% pop. in labor force 9,557 x .605 = 5,782 new residents in labor force Total Increase In Workforce Residing In SLO: 6,700 current + 5,782 new = 12,482 out of a projected 40,557 employees = jobs to housing imbalance of 31% compared to 22% currently Average Water Consumption (GPD) Per Land Use & A City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report Algorithms: Average daily gallons per San Luis Obispo resident Dec. 2015: 44.89 Average daily gallons per occupied hotel room: 218.00 Average no. gallons per restaurant meal: 9.90 Average daily gallons per ofﬁce employee: 127.00 Average daily. gallons per miscellaneous retail employee: 152.00 Average daily gallons per hospital worker: 124.00 Average no. FTE hospital workers per 1,000 square feet)2.6 Average daily gallons per K-12 school pupil:15.00 Average daily gallons per manufacturing employee:15.00 - 35.00 Average no. square feet per manufacturing employee:500.00 Average no. kilo gallons per bed nursing care divided by 356 92.1 Average no. gallons per bed homeless shelter 33.1 Average no. gallons per school seat 10.0 (see: http://www.responsibletravelreport.com/component/content/article/2656-green-hotels) (see: http://snohomishcountywa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/7660) (see: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/cro/images/pdfs/gpm_estimate.pdf) (see: http://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/appendix_e3.pdf) (see: http://coloradowaterwise.org/Resources/Documents/ICI_toolkit/docs/Brendle%20Group %20and%20CWW%20ICI%20Benchmarking%20Study.pdf) (see: https://edocs.publicworks.houstontx.gov/documents/.../criteria.doc) 9,736 more residents 437,049 more gallons/day 838 more hotel rooms 182,684 more gallons/day 5,978 more ofﬁce workers 759,206 more gallons/day 2,446 more retail/commercial workers 371,792 more gallons/day 109 more manufacturing employees 3,815 more gallons/day 88 more hospital workers 10,912 more gallons/day 150 bed homeless shelter 4,965 more gallons/day 67 seat schools 670 more gallons/day 341 nursing home beds 31,372 more gallons/day Total 1,802,465 more gallons/day Equivalent additional population:40,153 more residents (excluding additional restaurant related water impacts) 1,802,465 divided by 325,851 x 365 = 2,019 more acre feet/year In 2015 San Luis Obispo total water use 4,990 acre feet/year (for a population of 45,802) Total water resource demand with build out 7,009 acre feet/year Total water resource availability in 2015 10,005 acre feet/year “New worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014) indicates the City has approximately a three year supply of water as of September 2015.” see: City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report: http://www.slocity.org/home/ showdocument?id=6371 see: Water Supply Assessment for the Chevron Tankfarm Development Project: http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+III+-+Technical +Appendices/Appendix+G.1-SB+610+Report+-City+Development+Plan.pdf Population, Water Use & Rainfall Year Population Total Water Per Capita Rainfall (inches) Use (acre ft.)(gpcd) 2006 44,559 5,999 120.2 17.2 2007 44,433 6,493 130.5 12.7 2008 44,579 6,359 127.3 18.1 2009 44,829 6,134 122.2 18.9 2010 44,948 5,489 109.0 36.0 2011 45,418 5,285 103.9 18.9 2012 45,308 5,541 109.2 21.5 2013 45,541 5,892 115.5 3.8 2014 45,473 5,524 108.5 14.2 2015 45,802 4,990 97.3 11.8 Ten-year per capita average:114.4 2015 & Pipeline Build Out Water Resource Availability Water Resource Acre Feet Description San Luis Obispo Rainfall March 11, 2016 18.27 90.2% Seasonal Ave. July 1-June 30 Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs 6,940 Safe Annual Yield (1) (out of a current capacity of 15,407) Salinas Reservoir 23,843 Total Capacity Salinas Reservoir 3,143 February 18, 2016 (13.18% capacity) 3,201.5 March 11, 2016 (13.43% capacity) 3,307.6 March 20, 2016 (13.87% capacity) 3,276.8 March 28, 2016 (13.74% capacity) 3,268.2 April 1, 2016 (13.71% capacity) 3,240.8 April 6, 2016 (13.59% capacity) 3,232.3 April 15, 2016 (13.56% capacity) 3,131.3 May 14, 2016 (13.13% capacity Salinas Reservoir 2,000 Minimum Pool Salinas Reservoir 1,143 Available to SLO Salinas Reservoir 1,000/year Evaporation Rate Whale Rock Reservoir 40,662 Total Capacity Whale Rock Reservoir 13,809 February 18, 2016 (33.96% capacity) 4.89 inches (Feb. 18 - Mar. 11) 13,936 March 11, 2016 (35.76% capacity) 0.91 inches (Mar. 11 - Mar. 20) 14.094.1 March 20, 2016 (36.17% capacity) 0.04 inches (Mar. 20 - Mar. 28) 14,189.6 March 28, 2016 (36.41 capacity) Tot. 5.84 inches 14,157.7 April 15, 2016 (36.33% capacity) 14,094.1 April 22, 2016 (36.17% capacity) 13,840.7 May 14, 2016 (35.52% capacity) Whale Rock Reservoir 2,000 Minimum Pool (est. 1989) Whale Rock Reservoir 11,809 Available to SLO, CPU, CMC & Cayucos Whale Rock Reservoir 4,300 SLO Share (55.05% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 1,500/year Evaporation Rate Whale Rock Reservoir 5,300 Cal Poly Share (banked share = ?) (33.71% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 2,300 CMC Share (banked share = ?) (11.24% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 600 Cayucos Share Nacimiento Reservoir 377,900 Total Capacity2 Nacimiento Reservoir 83,600 February 18, 2016 (22% capacity) 4.89 inches (Feb. 18 - Mar. 11) 109,100 March 11, 2016 (28.87% capacity) 0.91 inches (Mar. 11 - March 20) 125,195.0 March 20, 2016 (33.13% capacity) 0.04 inches (Mar. 20 - Mar. 28) 129,618.0 March 28, 2016 (34.30% capacity) Tot. 5.84 inches 130,685.0 April 4, 2016 (35.00% capacity) 130,075.0 April 19, 2016 (34.00% capacity) 127,483.0 May 14, 2016 (33.77% capacity) Nacimiento Reservoir 22,300 Minimum Pool 17,500 12,000 Dead Pool (670 foot elevation & beyond gravity ﬂow) Annual Release to Salinas Valley 230,000 (was cut back 50% at end of 2014 3 thru 2015) Nacimiento Reservoir 61,300 Available to SLO, SLO Cnty, N. R., Monterey Cnty, Santa Maria, Paso, Peak capacity could be reduced to 320,000 af with the installation of a proposed $68 million 2 Nacimiento/San Antonio interlake tunnel - $25 million was just procured in January 2016 (see: http://montereycfb.com/uploads/Interlake%20Tunnel%20Presentation%20102814.pdf) This aquifer recharge is supplemented by water released from the San Antonio Reservoir and 3 from 33,156 af/year of water supplied by the MRWPCA, the world’s largest water recycling facility. Nacimiento ﬁlls up 3 times faster than San Antonio Templeton, Atascadero, (& Nipomo in the future) Nacimiento Reservoir 17,500 Available to SLO Cnty Proposed 23,505 Actual Use by Cnty. 11,405 Nacimiento Reservoir 3,380 SLO Share or Dependable Yield (2) Proposed 5,482 (34.806%) Nacimiento Reservoir 1,750 Lake Use Nacimiento Reservoir 10,730 /year Evaporation Rate4 Nacimiento Reservoir 2,102 Recently Requested Recycled Water 185 2014 Annual Usage (3) Siltation from 2010 to 2060 (500) WWME Policy A 4.2.2 (4) Total 10,005 2015 Annual Availability Reliability Reserve (not for new develop.) 2,000 To meet short term losses Removed May 14, 2002 RR Restored in 2010 1,174 Secondary (not for new development) 1,501 To meet short term losses Proposed 3,603 Primary (existing & new development) 7,330 City Wells - Per WWME Policy A 3.2.3, the City does not consider groundwater a source of supply due to limitations on its use. Paciﬁc Beach #1 11950 Los Osos Valley Road Municipal/Domestic Corp Yard 25 Prado Road Construction Laguna Golf Course #1 11175 Los Osos Valley Road Irrigation Laguna Golf Course #2 11175 Los Osos Valley Road Irrigation Total used in SLO in 2015 4,990 Total with current build out 7,151 NOTES: (1) Safe Annual Yield determined from computer model, which accounts for siltation loss through 2010 (per WWME Policy A 4.2.1). “Safe Annual Yield” is the quantity of water that can be utilized consistently and reliably over an extended period of time. The extended period of time must be long enough to establish patterns that would include a worst case drought scenario. (2) Dependable Yield is the contractual amount (MY NOTE: not the actual amount remaining as Nacimiento is now at 22% capacity or 83,600 acre feet in 2015) of water the City has rights to from Nacimiento Reservoir. (3) The quantity of recycled water included is the actual prior year’s recycled water usage (calendar year 2014) per WWME Policy A 7.2.2. (4) Reservoir siltation is a natural occurrence that reduces storage capacity over long periods, resulting in the reduction of safe annual yield. 40,000/year for both Nacimiento and San Antonio. Nacimiento’s evaporation rate could be as 4 high as 31,733 af/year based on pro ratio surface area (5) A drought response strategy that went to the City Council June 2, 2015 included a proposal to defer or signiﬁcantly reduce water consumption for new development. The proposal would apply to new developments seeking building permits. The proposal is as follows: “Defer landscape planting or provide modiﬁed landscape plans for new development that signiﬁcantly reduces water demand.” During the summer months, 30% of water use is for landscape irrigation. For existing development: “Limiting outdoor watering to two days a week…” and “Reestablishing a high efﬁciency toilet and washing machine rebate program. The City proposes to create a $100,000 rebate fund and offer $100 rebates for property owners who retroﬁt their homes with high efﬁciency toilets an/or washing machines.” (6) The Nacimiento Master Water Contract requires that downstream releases from the reservoir cease when storage capacity reaches 22,300 AF (which effectively reserves that water for delivery to the Flood Control District). Since 1958, the capacity of the Nacimiento Reservoir has only declined to 22,300 AF ﬁve times, most recently in 1989.   (7) May 28, 2015 8:58 PM “SLO residents must cut water use or face possible rationing this summer”. Read more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/ article39534897.html#storylink=cpyRead more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/ article39534897.html#storylink=cpy Executive Summary What is not explained is how Nacimiento Reservoir (377,000 acre feet) and Santa Margarita/ Salinas Reservoir (23,843 acre feet) went from overtopping, 100% of capacity, in March of 2011 to (in February 8, 2016) 22% (83,600 acre feet) and 13.8% (3,143 acre feet) respectively in 444 acyears. We currently have a 3 year supply of water based (it can be argued that we only have 1 year supply) on new worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014). Whale Rock Reservoir has a capacity of 38,967 acre feet but it is currently at 35% capacity (13,809 acre feet). Cal Poly reserves rights to 34% of Whale Rock’s capacity (13,249 at full capacity and 4,695 acre feet at 34% capacity) but it only uses 1,100 acre feet per year. California Men’s Colony reserves rights to 445 acre feet of water from the Whale Rock Reservoir. However, both Cal Poly & the CMC have been banking their shares which thereby reduces SLO’s share because SLO hasn’t been banking at all. This leaves 12,264 acre feet for San Luis Obispo today at Whale Rock’s current 35% capacity and 3,143 acre feet of the Salinas Reservoir at 13.8% capacity for a total of 15,407 acre feet. But the safe annual yield for these two reservoirs is only 6,940. Let's say we could take 3 years of this drought before we are ﬂat out of water. However, at current build out we would use 43% more or 7,151 acre/feet, so that reduces the city's absolute supply to 2 years and 1 month. Inevitably, we will have a 2 year drought (i.e., no rain whatsoever). This is very dangerous stuff. That's why the city is quietly seeking another 2,100 acre feet/year allotment from Nacimiento. But Nacimiento would not last another year in this type of drought with all it's remaining 5,480 acre feet/year (3,380 current allotment plus an additional 2,100 in the future) allotment parceled out. It, along with 6,940 acre feet of safe annual yield of the Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs reserve, would be at 12,420 acre feet, only 5,269 acre feet away from operational minimum pool, less than a year away from operationally empty. Residential Growth Rate Table 3 on page 1-37 of the LUCE states that these growth projections are “approximate”. They are very “approximate”. 1.One percent growth every year does not include •Housing in the downtown core (this is not mentioned in the LUCE document) •So-called affordable or workforce housing Non-Residential Growth Rate 2.“…the City Council shall evaluate the actual increase in nonresidential ﬂoor area over the preceding ﬁve years. The Council shall consider establishing limits for the rate of nonresidential development if the increase in nonresidential ﬂoor area for any ﬁve-year period exceeds ﬁve percent.” This excludes: •Changed employment levels of existing businesses •The downtown core •Public agencies •Manufacturing, light industrial, research businesses, or companies providing a signiﬁcant number of head of household job The City will establish…a reliability reserve that is 20-percent of the water use (123.2 gallons per capita per day) rate established in Policy A 5.2.1 may not be used to serve future development” (not “shall”?). As reported in the 2014 Water Resource Status Report (October 2014), availability from these sources equal 9,997 acre-feet, as shown in Table 9. This supply meets the projected primary water supply need at General Plan build-out of 7,128 acre-feet, plus an additional 1,209 acre- feet for a reliability reserve and a secondary water supply of 1,660 acre-feet. The primary water supply was calculated using the City’s build-out population (53,700 people) and the water use rate of 118.5 gallons per capita per day (a ten-year running average of the 5 City’s actual per capita water use). The Reliability Reserve was calculated using the City’s 2013 population and 20 percent of the aforementioned water use rate. The secondary water supply includes the remaining water resources available in 2013. Cal Poly Enrollment Growth 1945 819 1949 2,909 1966 7,740 1968 9,711 1977 15,502 1986 15,450 2000 16,877 2015 20,944 13 year period 1977 - 2000 + 1,375 15 year period 2000 - 2015 + 4,067 (3x faster than the previous 13 years) Does this per capita ﬁgure includes both residential and nonresidential water consumption?5 September 16, 2013: “President Jeffrey Armstrong told faculty and staff Monday that Cal Poly should continue to grow enrollment, hopefully increasing the university's population’s by 4,000 to 5,000 students over the next few years.” Read more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/education/ article39455100.html#storylink=cpy Correction Sheet Comparing My Data With The Data Included In The City’s Growth Management Study Session Staff Report Allan Cooper - 05-22-2016 Missing Hotel/Motel Development Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 115 rooms Missing Retail/Commercial Space Orcutt Area Speciﬁc Plan - Righetti/Jones Ranch 15,070 sq.ft. (or 8,000 sq.ft.) Fremont Square Project 7,900 sq.ft. 581 SOHO (581 Higuera) (completed) 13,000 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,202 sq.ft. Orcutt & Broad (791 Orcutt) 4,000 sq.ft. (or 10,000 sq.ft.) 956 Monterey (E) 5,180 sq.ft. Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa) 7,150 sq.ft. Digital West (600 Tank Farm) (E) 80,000 sq.ft. Missing Institutional Space French Hospital (UC) 31,471 sq.ft. divided by 1,000 sq.ft. x 2.6 = 88 hospital workers Old Mission School (774 Palm) (UC) 4,000 sq.ft. 4000 divided by 122 = 33 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff SLO Classical Academy (110 Grand) 4,182 sq.ft. 4182 divided by 122 = 34 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff Missing Ofﬁce Space San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 150,000 sq.ft. Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan (AASP) 3,361,090 sq.ft. NI (Table 4.1 ñ 2005 Version (includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan)San Luis Obispo Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan Land Use Program And Development Capacities: http://www.slocity.org/home/ showdocument?id=4294) Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 363,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-9 http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) Chinatown Project (UC) 5,630 sq.ft. Mind Body (651 Tank Farm) (UC) 60,000 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,102 sq.ft. Hotel/Motel Development Not Included In My Estimations Townhouse Suites 116 rooms Hotel Serra (Garden St.) 64 Manufacturing Not Included In My Estimations Digital West 80,000 sq.ft. Wingate Homes 5,000 sq.ft. 1135 Santa Rosa 21,000 sq.ft. Retail/Commercial Space Not Included In My Estimations Shell Station 10,000 sq.ft. 22 Chorro 2,041 sq.ft. Olive Mixed-Use 3,500 sq.ft. Jones Ranch Subdivision 15,070 sq.ft. Missing Residential Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) Tumbling Waters (861 & 953 Orcutt) Creekston (791 Orcutt) 264 units Coker Ellsworth Project 35 units Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4 units Residential Not Included In My Estimations Single Family Residences 280 units Laurel Lane Mixed Use 18 units Bishop Knoll 14 units 22 Chorro 26 units Olive Mixed Use 17 units Residence @ Grand 4 units Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll 25 units 625 Toro 14 units 152 Ferrini 3 units 135 Ferrini 5 units Moylan Terrace 20 units 9 On Rockview 9 units South Hills Crossing (313 South) 43 units Bridge Street (Terraza) 26 units Brownstones 8 units Fixlini Tract 6 units