HomeMy WebLinkAbout05-25-2016 PC Item 02 - Growth Management Study SessionPC2-1
Meeting Date: May 25, 2106
Item Number: 2
PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA REPORT
SUBJECT: Review and discuss the status of the residential and non-residential growth in the City
following the adoption of the 2014 Land Use Element.
PROJECT ADDRESS: Citywide BY: Xzandrea Fowler, Deputy Director XF
Phone Number: 781-7274
e-mail:xfowler@slocity.org
FILE NUMBER: N/A
RECOMMENDATION: Review and discuss the status of residential and non-residential growth in
the City following the adoption of the 2014 Land Use Element.
1.0 BACKGROUND
Recently the Planning Commission along with members of the public have inquired about the status of
growth management within the City’s Urban Reserve boundary. The intent of this study session is to
provide context with respect to the status of residential and non-residential growth in the City
following adoption of the 2014 Land Use Element (LUE), and to clarify some key assumptions that are
made in the LUE based on analysis of demographic trends. The current amount of residential
development that is in various phases of City review is provided in Attachment 1. The current
estimated amount of square footage for non-residential development projects that are in various phases
of City review are provided in Attachment 2.
2.0 COMMISSION’S PURVIEW
The Planning Commission provides input on long range planning efforts, such as the implementation
of the General Plan policies as they relate to growth and development. This study session will provide
an opportunity for the Planning Commission to review the implementation of those polices and to
provide staff with input and recommendations.
3.0 OVERVIEW OF ANTICIPATED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
The spreadsheet of residential development, provided in Attachment 1, represents proposed projects in
various phases of City review following the adoption of the LUE in 2014. It is important to know that
the 2014 LUE ‘reset’ residential development capacity and growth expectations. The numbers
provided in LUE Table 3 are accurate and serve as the basis for implementation of the City’s Growth
Management Regulations.
The various phases of City review shown on the attached spreadsheet establishes the ‘certainty of
development’ spectrum for projects moving through the entitlement process. The City’s Growth
Management Regulations use building permit allocations to ensure compliance with the City’s 1%
growth policy, so those projects with building permits issued are considered “in the pipeline.” Projects
that have submitted applications for building permits, public improvement plans for new subdivisions
(PIPs), or that already have some form of entitlement such as a use permit or Architectural Review, are
more likely to move forward than those to the right of the bold line on the attached spreadsheet.
Growth Management Study Session
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PC2-2
As of April 2016, there are 20,996 residential units in the City. If all units in the attached spreadsheet
are developed over the anticipated build-out period of 2035, the City will have 25,330 units. This is
432 units less than the projected LUE build out of 25,762 units by 2035.
Another important piece of information to consider is how the number of residential units constructed
relates to population growth. LUE Table 3 assumes a factor of 2.20 persons per household, based on
information provided by the California Department of Finance. This number has consistently trended
downwards resulting in the City maintaining a fairly stable population, increasing by 870 over the last
10 years, even while additional residential units have been constructed. Based on this analysis, the
anticipated City population, if all units in the attached spreadsheet are developed, would be 55,726.
This is 960 residents less than the LUE anticipated build-out population of 56,686 in 2035.
4.0 OVERVIEW OF ANTICIPATED NON-RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
The attached spreadsheet of non-residential square footage represents proposed projects in various
phases of City review following the adoption of the LUE in December 2014.
The various phases of City review shown on the attached spreadsheet, provided in Attachment 2,
establishes the ‘certainty of development’ spectrum for non-residential projects moving through the
entitlement process. LUE Policy 1.11.4, stated below, establishes the non-residential growth rate and
ensures compliance with the City’s anticipated General Plan buildout in 2035. Non-residential projects
with building permits issued are considered “in the pipeline”; projects that have submitted applications
for building permits, public improvement plans for new subdivisions (PIPs), or that already have some
form of entitlement such as a use permit or Architectural Review, are more likely to move forward
than those to the right of the bold line on the attached spreadsheet.
LUE Policy 1.11.4: Non-residential Growth Rate
Each year, the City Council shall evaluate the actual increase in non -residential floor area over the
preceding five years. The Council shall consider establishing limits for the rate of non -residential
development if the increase in non-residential floor area for any five-year period exceeds five
percent. Any limits so established shall not apply to:
A. Changes operations or employment levels, or relocation or ownership change, of any
business existing within the City at the time the limit is set;
B. Additional non-residential floor area within the Downtown core;
C. Public Agencies; and
Growth Management Study Session
Page 3 of 4
PC2-3
D. Manufacturing, light industrial, research businesses, or companies providing a
significant number of head of household jobs.
Based on final building permits issued, 67,141 square feet of net new non-residential floor area was
added to the City in 2015. This is a decrease of 9 percent from 2014, which saw 73,743 square feet of
net new non-residential space. The annual non-residential growth rate for 2015 was 0.58 percent.
From 2011 to 2015, the five-year growth rate for non-residential development was 3.70 percent, with
an annual average growth rate of 0.74 percent.
Net Annual Growth Rates of Non-residential Floor Area (2005–2015)
Source: City of San Luis Obispo, Final Inspections
If all projects in the attached spreadsheet are developed over the anticipated build-out period of 2035,
the City will have added 2,054,369 square feet of non-residential square footage since LUE adoption in
2014. This equates to an average of approximately 102,700 square feet per year; a 0.89% average
annual growth rate, which is below the average growth rate of one percent per year.
The analysis above indicates that nonresidential growth will remain below the City’s one percent
average annual growth rate throughout the general plan buildout period to 2035. This information is
tracked regularly as part of the Annual Report on the General Plan. Any development trends or actual
project proposals that would cause the conclusions of this analysis to change would be identified and
reported to the Council and the community as part of the Annual Report.
5.0 PROJECT ANALYSIS
Although staff cannot predict specific timelines for project completion because of a variety of
complicating factors, it is important to know that the City’s long range planning is based on the
assumption that all of the development envisioned in the General Plan would be constructed by the
build-out year, or 2035. In other words, the City is planning for full build-out by ensuring that
development proceeds in a manner that can be supported by available resources, and all appropriate
measures to ensure that City goals and objectives for housing, jobs-to-housing balance, transportation,
air quality, water resources, public safety, parks and recreation, and open space conservation (to name
just a few areas of consideration) are met through the implementation of the General Plan.
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth Management Study Session
Page 4 of 4
PC2-4
The Community Development Department anticipates updating the attached spreadsheets on an annual
basis to assist the Council, Planning Commission, staff, and community, track the progress of all
development in the City, and to ensure residential development and population growth are consistent
with LUE policies and projections.
6.0 ATTACHMENTS
1. Growth Management – Residential Units, April 2016
2. Growth Management - Non-residential Square Footage, April 2016
Residential Projects
(Number of Units)
Buildings
Permits Issued
(In Pipeline)
Building Permit
Application
Submitted
PIPs Submitted or
Approved
Planning
Entitlements
Approved
Planning
Applications
Complete and
Under Review
Planning Applications
Submitted/
Incomplete/On Hold
Pre-Application
Submitted
Anticipated
Future Units Notes
West Creek 179 Subject to Phasing Plan
Imel Subdivision 18
Wingate Homes 142 Subject to Phasing Plan
Jones Subdivision 65
Righetti Ranch Subdivision 304 Subject to Phasing Plan
Anticipated in remaining subdivisions of OASP 271 979 is total buildout in OASP. Up to 271 additional units are anticipated.
Toscano Moresco 161 Subject to Phasing Plan
Serra Meadows 166 Subject to Phasing Plan
Anticipated in remaining subdivisions of MASP 500 868 is total buildout in MASP. Up to 500 additional units are anticipated.
Avila Ranch Specific Plan 720 Subject to Phasing Plan. Construction anticipated after 2020
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan 500 Subject to Phasing Plan. Construction anticipated after 2020
Froom Ranch Specific Plan (SFR/MFR)275 Subject to Phasing Plan. Construction anticipated after 2025. NOT part of
CCRC
Anticipated Single Family Residences 280 Approximately 15 per year (based on permit history)
Santa Rosa Street Infill 25
Laurel Lane Mixed Use 18
Fremont Square 19
Caudill Mixed Use 36
Bishop Knoll 14
22 Chorro 26
Olive Mixed Use 17
San Luis Square 60
71 Palomar Ave. 41
Residences at Grand 4
1135 Santa Rosa 2
Iron Works 46
The Yard 43
460 Marsh Street 4
625 Toro 14
152 Ferrini 3
135 Ferrini 5
Monterey Place 30
Broad St. Mixed Use (3099/3049 Broad)8
The Junction 69
860 On the Wye (860 Humbert)20
Moylan Terrace 20 Under Construction
Pacific Courtyards 9 Under Construction
SLO Terrace (Rachel Court)17 Under Construction
Laurel Creek Project (Avivo Townhomes)117 Under Construction
Chinatown 16 Under Construction
Garden Street Terraces 8 Under Construction
9 on Rockview 9 Under Construction
South Hills Crossing (313 South)43 Under Construction
Bridge Street (Terraza)26 Under Construction
Brownstones 8 Under Construction
Fixlini Tract 6 Under Construction
TOTAL 465 129 530 241 1458 171 319 1051 4,364
Margarita Area Specific Plan
Orcutt Area Specific Plan
Other Specific Plans
Other Residential Developments
Certainty of Development
Land Use Element 2035 Maximum
Dwellings at Build Out 25,762
2015 Total Housing Units 20,966
Total units incorporating construction of
all units above (since LUCE adoption,
2014)
25,330
Unit capacity remaining before
maximum build out is reached in 2035 432
Existing Population (2014 LUE) 45,541
Anticipated Population at 2035
maximum dwellings
(25,762 units X 2.2 people per household)
56,686
Anticiapted population with all units
constructed above
(25,330 units x 2.2 people per household)
55,726
Population capacity remaining before
maximum build out is reached in 2035 960
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r
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a
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Av
e
r
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e
An
n
u
a
l
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o
w
t
h
Ra
t
e
20
1
5
*
11
,
5
1
6
,
8
8
9
‐
0.
5
8
%
20
3
5
(i
f
al
l
sq
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fo
o
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a
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ab
o
v
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bu
i
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)
13
,
6
5
1
,
2
5
8
19
%
0
.
9
3
%
*S
o
u
r
c
e
=
20
1
5
Ge
n
e
r
a
l
Pl
a
n
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n
u
a
l
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p
o
r
t