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Home My WebLink About05-25-2016 PC Correspondence Item 02 (Peck)Suphen Peck,11CP President May 24, 2016 Peck Running and Development LLC Planning Development Economics Meeting: 41 615" l u San Luis Obispo Planning Commission Item: 919 Palm Street San Luis Obispo, CA 93401 I RECEIVED CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO MAY 2 5 2016 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT The Planning Commission's consideration of the City's growth control policies is especially timely and helpful. Much has been presented about the status of growth in the community, conformance with the General Plan, and the need for housing, especially relative to the employment growth in the community. Based on the analysis below, we recommend that the Planning Commission monitor the production of housing relative to City non-residential construction, employment growth in areas adjacent to the City, and growth in CalPoly enrollment to ensure that there is an adequate supply of housing to meet the community's needs. Such monitoring would ensure compliance with Land Use Element Policy 1.5 which states, succinctly, that "The gap between housing demand (due to more jobs and college enrollment) and supply should not increase." The Planning Commission and City staff should take this opportunity to identify how this Land Use Policy should be implemented. The City staff has presented important information on current city growth and pending projects. It is useful to look at these data over the term of implementation of the previous General Plan since they will provide us with useful lessons on what to continue and what to change. Some observations from that look in the rear view mirror: 1. Housing demand growth outstripped housing supply over the last 15 years. This is no surprise. Local employment growth (inside the city and immediately outside of it at CalPoly and adjacent business parks) has grown by about 5,500 jobs over the last 15 years, creating a need for just over 3,100 dwelling units to house those workers. Over that same period there were 1,767 dwelling units constructed in the City. Over that same period growth in Poly enrolment created a need for another 1,100 dwelling units. Since 2000, we have fallen almost 2,300 dwelling units further out of balance than in 2000, and we have produced less than half the housing called for in the former General Plan to maintain a proper Job -Housing balance. Figure 1 shows a graph of actual and projected housing supply, and housing demand derived from local employment and enrolment growth. 2. As the Jobs -Housing imbalance has gotten worse, so has the daily commute. Over 80 percent of the workers in SLO live someplace else, with over 30,000 workers commuting into town each day. That is an increase of almost 5,000 since 2000, a consequence of housing growth lagging behind growth in local enrolment and employment. Traffic is the number one concern of citizens relative to growth, and the solution is not to build more highways for more commuters, but to reduce total trips and trip length by putting houses closer to jobs. It makes no sense to have "walkable" communities if your house is more than half an hour or more away from your job!! 3. While non-residential growth has occurred at much less than the limit in the General Plan, residential growth has been one-third that rate, something that is not considered desirable for a healthy community. As noted above, Policy 1.5 of the LUCE was adopted to recognize that shortfalls in residential growth that have occurred over the last 15 years cannot and should not be made up, but that housing supply should keep up with housing demand going forward. During some intermediate planning and implementation cycle period (2 years? 5 years?), that means producing housing at the same pace as jobs and enrolment. We cannot assume that all will work itself out by 2035, the end of the LUCE planning horizon. We should also not get so far behind that we cannot catch up and to have to again "reset" the Jobs Housing balance to a higher "new normal'. The staff report on Item 2 provides an excellent look at what is in the pipeline over the next few years. Although not intended for such a comparison, it provides a useful comparison of the non-residential projects in the city that have approved entitlements and that will generate added housing demands and actual housing that could satisfy that demand. The developments shown in the table represent 1,500 more jobs in the City, about a 4.5 percent growth rate in employment over the next two to three years (pretty much back the 0.75% to 1.25% annual growth rate range that has occurred inside the City over the last 15 years). If growth in Poly employment and employment in business parks adjacent to the City are added, this increase represents growth of 1.25% to 1.5% per year. Growth in employment inside and immediately outside the city is projected to be 1,750 to 1,900 jobs over the next three years, based on the above, creating a need for about 1,100 employment-related housing units in the near term. (Onsite campus housing will actually reduce the housing demand to approximately 900 units during the same period.) Consider the above in light of the residential units in the City "pipeline". According to the staff report there are 1,365 units in the same pipeline as the non-residential projects summarized above to potentially serve the housing needs associated with new non-residential projects. Note, however, the following: 1. Serra Meadows is sold out and there is no inventory left. The final phases of the project have been started and will be completed and finaled by the end of the calendar year. The 166 units shown there are not part of the inventory to serve future needs. 2. Avivo Townhomes are substantially sold out. There are 71 units available out the 117 units represented in the table. 3. 880 on the Wye and Moylan Terrace are committed or sold out. 4. Pacific Courtyards, Garden Street Terraces, Chinatown and Brownstones developments will serve an important community niche for downtown housing, but it is generally unaffordable to the workforce. Housing prices for downtown projects generally start at $500/SF+, with starting prices exceeding $750,000. Overall, there are 900 future residential units that are not sold or committed and therefore "available" in the pipeline to address the 1,100 -unit housing need created by the 1,900 new jobs in the pipeline, meaning that the City will just keep up or fall farther behind in the Jobs Housing balance, if the approved entitlements can be secured and the housing units actually constructed in a timely manner. Page 12 Successful implementation of the LUCE will require that there be a balance of residential and non- residential land uses. That balance should occur within each five-year period over the next 20 years. This means that the pace of issuance of residential permits and residential construction will have to be accelerated, but need not exceed the City's one percent growth limitation. Accelerating this pace will also accelerate the pace of key improvements that have been assigned to existing major developments. Completion of Prado Road, improvement of Tank Farm Road, completion of the Buckley Road Extension, and completion of dozens of miles of new bike and ped improvements, for example, will not happen without these projects. Too, solving the traffic problem will mostly depend on accommodating new workers in town, and bringing as many commuters back "home" as practicable. We encourage the City to review this important information in light of the above analysis. Sincerely, Stephen J. Peck, AICP Page 13 Figure 1 --Employment and Housing Growth: 2000-2021 Page 14 Cp N N t N ♦ r o s w` >� Q N I p� R �+ N 7 o N ` a I Iv � 6 % r E H� R s � .O � a Q U c W .0 g Ui M E R (DE a o 06 c � R � � e � R o a � I R g smun Oulnema Figure 1 --Employment and Housing Growth: 2000-2021 Page 14