HomeMy WebLinkAbout19. ScreencheckFEIR310Populati3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-1
Final EIR
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
This section provides information on the existing population, employment characteristics,
and housing availability in the City of San Luis Obispo (City) and evaluates the proposed
Project’s potential to affect these sectors. Sources utilized in the development of this
section include the City of San Luis Obispo General Plan Land Use Element and Housing
Element, Land Use and Circulation Elements Update EIR (LUCE Update EIR) and
supporting appendices, San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) projections,
the 2015 Annual Report on the City’s General Plan, U.S. Census Bureau data, and
California Department of Finance data.
3.10.1 LUCE Update EIR
The City’s 2014 LUCE Update EIR provided a programmatic assessment of citywide
population and housing impacts as well as a brief discussion of those related to
development of the Project site. The LUCE Update EIR noted that the Project has the
potential to alleviate the jobs-to-housing balance within the City, and states that
development of Avila Ranch would not result in impacts to population and housing
resources or exceed the adopted one percent per year population growth threshold. In
addition, the EIR concluded that implementation of the proposed LUCE Update policies,
and amendments to existing City policies, would result in less than significant impacts. In
particular, incorporation of Land Use Element Policy 1.11.2, which states the City shall
manage the growth of the City's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per
year, on average, based on thresholds established by Land Use Element (City of San Luis
Obispo 2014b). The LUCE EIR addresses the jobs-to-housing ratio based on SLOCOG
projected demand for housing and employment, and estimated that the projected jobs-to-
housing ratio would be 1.8 to 1 by 2035 (City of San Luis Obispo 2015b).
3.10.2 Environmental Setting
3.10.2.1 Population
A range of population forecasts for existing population levels and the rate and total amount
of projected future growth within the City are available from different sources. As
discussed below, there is some variation for both existing population levels and projected
rates of growth between available sources.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-2 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Population Estimates
In 2016, the population of the City of San Luis Obispo was estimated at 46,117 while the
County of San Luis Obispo was estimated at 277,977(see Table 3.10-1; Department of
Finance 2016).1 The City’s population constitutes approximately 16.5 percent of the
County’s total population. Overall, the City has experienced an average annual increase in
population of 0.38 percent since 1990. Comparatively, the County has experienced a 1.08
percent annual increase since 1990.
Table 3.10-1. Population Growth between 1990 and 2016
Population 1990 2000 2010 20161
City of San Luis Obispo 41,958 44,148 45,119 46,117
Average Annual Growth (%) -- 0.5 0.2 0.4
County of San Luis Obispo 217,162 246,681 269,637 277,977
Average Annual Growth (%) -- 1.4 0.9 0.5
Source: Department of Finance 2016; U.S. Census Bureau 2010; U.S. Census Bureau 2015.
Population Projections
SLOCOG projects a continuation of the relatively slow growth rates experienced by the
City between 2000 and 2010, with a 0.40 percent annual growth rate to 2040.2 According
to SLOCOG’s medium growth population projections, the City is estimated to witness a
population increase of 1,301 residents between 2015 and 2020, and the addition of 735 new
residents between 2020 and 2025. By 2040, the total population for the City and the County
as a whole, are projected to increase by 4,819 residents and 58,787 residents respectively
from 2015. However, it is noted that 2014 population estimates made by the U.S. Census
Bureau have already exceeded projections made by SLOCOG for the year 2025. SLOCOG
population projections are further compared to land use buildout capacities allowed under
the LUCE below (see Table 3.10-2).
1 The California Department of Finance provides population estimates for the City and County. The
Department of Finance provides population counts every year, which include deduction of exclusion from
the total population. Exclusion include residents on federal military installations and group quarters residents
in state mental institute, state and federal correctional institutions, and veteran homes. The most recent annual
report was published in May 2016.
2 As part of its long range planning efforts, SLOCOG develops socioeconomic estimates and growth
projections including population, households, and employment for cities in the County of San Luis Obispo
through enhanced forecasting methods and interactive public outreach. These estimates and projections
provide the analytical foundations for SLOCOG’s transportation planning and other programs at the regional
and small geographic area level, including the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). The most
recent projections were released in the agency’s 2014-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable
Communities (RTP/SCS) Growth Forecast. Although SLOCOG’s RTP/SCS was adopted in 2014, the growth
forecasts in the 2014 RTP/SCS are based on 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-3
Final EIR
Table 3.10-2. SLOCOG Medium Growth Population Projections
Population 2015 2020 2025 2040
City 44,668 45,969 46,704 49,487
County 275,590 286,940 296,851 334,377
Source: SLOCOG 2011.
General Plan Population Estimates
According to the City’s Housing Element, between 1990 and 2000, the City’s population
grew 0.5 percent annually, and between 2005 and 2013, the City’s population grew by 879
persons, a total increase of 2 percent, or annual increase of 0.2 percent (see Table 3.10-3).
During these years, the maximum annual population growth rate for the City was 0.82
percent.
The Land Use Element includes land use designations, policies, and projected levels of
development designed to accommodate an eventual City population of 57,200 (with an
estimated population of 56,686 in 2035). Conservatively using a 0.5 percent annual growth
rate (as experienced between 1990 and 2000), the City's anticipated residential population
capacity would be reached by the year 2057 (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
Table 3.10-3. Population Growth, 2005-2013, San Luis Obispo City, County, and
State of California
City County California
Population Rate of
Change (%) Population Rate of
Change (%) Population Rate of
Change (%)
2005 44,662 - 261,558 - 35,278,768 -
2006 44,522 -0.31 263,727 0.83 36,457,549 3.34
2007 44,389 -0.3 265,786 0.78 36,553,215 0.26
2008 44,521 0.3 268,290 0.94 36,756,666 0.56
2009 44,750 0.51 270,429 0.8 36,961,664 0.56
2010 45,119 0.82 269,637 -0.29 37,253,956 0.79
2011 45,269 0.33 271,969 0.86 37,691,912 1.18
2012 45,312 0.1 271,502 -0.17 37,668,804 -0.06
2013 45,541 0.51 272,177 0.25 37,966,471 0.79
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
3.10.2.2 Employment
In 2013, the City’s total labor force was estimated at 28,400, of which 26,300 were
employed, resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent (see Table 3.10-5; City of San
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-4 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Luis Obispo 2015a).3 Due to the 2008 national economic recession, the unemployment rate
in the City reached up to 10.9 percent in 2010; however, the City has seen a steady decrease
in annual unemployment rates since the height of the recession (see Table 3.10-5).4
Comparatively, unemployment levels in the County are approximately 8 percent and have
been historically 2 percent lower than the state’s levels, which was 10.5 percent in 2011
(SLOCOG 2011).5 In 2016, unemployment was 4.6 percent in the City and 4.3 percent in
the County (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2016).
The City estimated that there were 31,907 jobs within the City in 2012 (City of San Luis
Obispo 2015a).6 Of these jobs, educational services, and health care and social assistance
sectors accounted for 24 percent of the jobs, followed by retail trade jobs with about 18.5
percent and arts, entertainment, recreation, and accommodation, and food services sectors
with 15.5 percent of the total jobs. Top employers within the City include the French
Hospital Medical Center, AMI Sierra Vista Radiology, and Pacific Gas and Electric Co.
Comparatively, the total amount of jobs within San Luis Obispo County was estimated at
120,893 and was also led by educational services, and health care and social assistance
sectors, which accounted for 23.1 percent of the County’s jobs (see Table 3.10-4; City of
San Luis Obispo 2015a). Based on these estimates, in 2012 the City provided
approximately 26.4 percent of the total number of jobs within the County, while the City’s
population constitutes roughly 16.7 percent of the County’s total population.
Some of the County’s highest-wage jobs are situated in areas immediately outside the City,
including California State Polytechnic University (Cal Poly), Cuesta College, Diablo
Canyon, and the California Men’s Colony (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a). As such, a
portion of the City’s labor force earning higher salaries is likely employed outside the City.
3 Labor force is defined as the number of residents within the City that are currently employed or residents
that are unemployed looking for employment. Those who choose not to work or unable to work typically are
not calculated as members of the labor force. This differs from the number of jobs available within the City,
which also relies on labor force populations outside the City that commute to the City for work.
4 Unemployment rate is unemployed labor force divided by total size of the labor force.
5 Non-farm job refers to all employment unrelated to agricultural production or harvest.
6 The number of jobs refers to the number of employment opportunities available within the City.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-5
Final EIR
Table 3.10-4. Division of Labor within the City, County, and State
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
According to SLOCOG, the City had approximately 33,000 jobs in 2010, while the County
and unincorporated areas had 95,900 and 23,900 jobs, respectively (SLOCOG 2011). As
noted in Table 3.10-6, the SLOCOG anticipates an increase of 11,200 nonfarm jobs in the
City over a 30-year period between 2010 and 2040.7 This equates to an annual projected
employment growth of 1.13 percent for the City. In the County, employment is projected
to grow 1.04 percent annually.
7 Nonfarm jobs refer to employment that is not related to agricultural operations.
Industry
City County California
Number
of Jobs
Percent
(%)
Number
of Jobs
Percent
(%)
Number of
Jobs
Percent
(%)
Educational services, and health
care and social assistance
5,487 24 27,971 23.1 3,465,988 21
Arts, entertainment, and
recreation, and accommodation,
and food services
3,562 15.5 14,538 12 1,629,516 10
Retail trade 4,245 18.5 15,834 13.1 1,853,579 11
Professional, scientific, and
management, and administrative
and waste management services
2,600 11.3 13,267 11 2,079,656 12.6
Finance and insurance, and real
estate and rental and leasing
1,101 4.8 5,332 4.4 1,046,344 6.3
Public administrative 827 3.6 7,192 6 787,015 5
Manufacturing 1,323 6 7,685 6.4 1,638,041 10
Construction 756 3.3 8,071 6.7 966,156 6
Transportation and warehousing,
and utilities
688 3 5,622 4.7 760,091 4.6
Information 845 3.7 3,032 2.5 460,567 2.8
Other services, except public
administration
9,914 4 5,519 4.6 893,649 5.4
Wholesale trade 334 1.5 2,357 1.9 516,724 3
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and
hunting, and mining
225 1 4,473 3.7 396,480 2.4
Total number of Jobs 31,907 100 120,893 100 16,493,806 100
Civilian employed population 16
years and over
22,984 100 120,893 100 16,493,806 100
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-6 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Table 3.10-5. City of San Luis Obispo Labor Force and Unemployment 2000-2013
Employed Unemployed Total Unemployment Rate (%)
2000 23,500 1,100 24,600 4.5
2001 24,200 1,100 25,300 4.4
2002 24,600 1,300 25,900 5.2
2003 24,500 1,300 25,800 5.2
2004 24,900 1,300 26,200 5.1
2005 25,400 1,300 26,700 4.7
2006 25,800 1,200 27,000 4.4
2007 26,200 1,300 27,500 4.7
2008 25,900 2,000 27,900 6.3
2009 24,800 2,700 27,500 9.9
2010 24,900 3,000 27,900 10.9
2011 25,200 2,900 28,100 10.3
2012 26,300 2,600 28,800 8.9
2013 26,300 2,100 28,400 7.3
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
Table 3.10-6. SLOCOG Medium Non-Farm Employment Projections
Planning Area 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
City 33,000 34,900 36,900 38,400 40,300 42,400 44,200
County 95,900 101,300 106,700 1,110,700 115,700 120,800 125,900
Source: SLOCOG 2011.
3.10.2.3 Housing
Existing Supply and Number of Households
According to the Housing Element, the City was estimated to have 20,553 housing units,
and 19,193 households with an average household size of 2.29 persons in 2010 (City of
San Luis Obispo 2015a).8 Average household size has declined from 2.32 persons per
household in 2000 to 2.29 in 2010 (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a). In part, this may be
due to the fact that very few multi-family dwellings were built during this time period, and
multi-family housing typically has a higher average number of persons per household than
single-family housing (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
From 2000 to 2010, while the number of households increased during this period, average
household size declined by 1.4 percent. As homeowners age and become “empty nesters”,
they often cannot afford to “shift down” and buy smaller housing that better meets their
8 By definition, a household consists of all persons occupying a dwelling unit, whether or not they are related.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-7
Final EIR
needs and budget. In San Luis Obispo, it is not uncommon for a three- and four-bedroom
house to be occupied by one or two persons. As average households grow smaller, the
existing housing stock accommodates fewer people, exacerbating housing needs,
particularly for families and large households (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
Table 3.10-7. SLOCOG Existing and Projected Housing Supply
Growth Level Scenario 2010 2020 2035
Low 20,553 21,523 22,982
Mid 20,553 21,526 23,204
High 20,553 21,528 23,405
Source: SLOCOG 2011.
Housing Demand and Availability
Full-time college students, a large portion of the City’s population, exert a strong influence
on the housing market. Cal Poly contained an enrollment of approximately 19,800 students
in 2013 and Cuesta College had an enrollment of approximately 11,336 students in 2013.
Natural population increase and formation of new households from the local population
have historically accounted for only a small part of the overall demand for housing (City
of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
The City’s housing vacancy rate in 2010 was 7.3 percent with a rental market vacancy rate
estimated at 4.5 percent in 2015 (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
2015).9 The City’s low vacancy rate generally reflects the high demand for student rental
housing near college campuses (City of San Luis Obispo 2015b). In 1990, the City’s vacancy
rate remained at just over 5.0 percent; however, between 2001 and 2003, the rate dropped
steeply to 3.5 percent. By comparison, in the 1990’s the County of San Luis Obispo vacancy
rate hovered at around 11 percent. In 2010, the County’s vacancy rate dropped to 7.3 (City
of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
9 The housing vacancy rate is one measure of general housing availability. A low vacancy rate, less than 5
percent, suggests that households will have difficulty finding housing within their price range. Conversely, a
high vacancy rate may indicate a high number of housing units that are undesirable for occupancy, a high
number of seasonal units, or an oversupply of housing. By maintaining a “healthy” vacancy rate of between
five and eight percent, housing consumers have a wider choice of housing types and prices to choose from.
As vacancy rates drop, shortages generally raise housing costs and limit choices.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-8 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Housing Affordability
The State of California defines five income categories for the purposes of determining
housing affordability and need in communities.10 These categories are:
• Extremely-Low Income: 30 percent or less of the County median income
• Very-Low Income: 31-50 percent of the County median income
• Low Income: 51 to 80 percent of the County median income
• Moderate: 81 to 120 percent of the County median income
• Above Moderate: 121 percent or higher than the County median income
The median household income in 2015 for a four-person household was $77,100 for the
County (City of San Luis Obispo 2016). Table 3.10-8 identifies the income categories and
affordable rents and purchase prices in the City. As the City has a large student population,
33.2 percent of City household’s incomes were less than $24,999, which fall within the
extremely low income category; however, this group may be inflated as many student
households, including families headed by students, are nominally in the lower income
categories but have significant financial resources due to parental support, loans or savings
that is not reflected in their current income levels.
Table 3.10-8. Affordable Rent and Purchase Prices for All Income Categories
Income Category Annual Income1 Affordable Rent 2 Affordable
Purchase Price3
Extremely Low (< 31%) < $23,901 $597 or less < $71,703
Very Low (31-50%) $23,901 - $38,550 $597 - $963 $71,703 - $115,650
Low (51 - 80%) $39,321 - $61,680 $983 - $1,542 $117,963 - $185,040
Moderate (81 – 120%) $62,451 - $92,520 $1,561 - $2,313 $218,578 - $323,820
Above Moderate (>120%) > $92,520 > $2,313 > $323,820
1Annual incomes are based on median income of 4-person households which is $77,100 for the County of San Luis
Obispo.
2Affordable rent is defined as 30% or less of gross income spent on rent.
3Affordable purchase price is defined as 3 times the annual income for extremely low, very low, and low; and as 3.5
times the annual income for moderate and above moderate.
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2016.
10 A disparity between monthly housing cost and monthly income is referred to as a housing affordability
gap. Housing affordability is determined by its cost and by the occupant’s income and other sources of
purchasing power. Affordability is often described in terms of what portion of household income should be
spent on housing. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the California
Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), and many lending institutions, households
should spend no more than 30 percent (25 percent or less for extremely low, very low, and low income
groups) of their gross monthly income on housing (City of San Luis Obispo 2016).
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-9
Final EIR
Table 3.10-9. Average Floor Area by Unit Type in San Luis Obispo, 2011
Unit Type Average
Rent ($)
Average Floor Area
(Sq. ft.) Income Groups That Can Afford
Studio 764 381 Some very low, low, moderate, above moderate
1-Bedroom 894 639 Some very low, low, moderate, above moderate
2-Bedroom 1,319 942 Low, moderate, above moderate
3-Bedroom 1,769 1,063 Moderate, above moderate
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
Based upon data from the City’s Housing Element, average market rate rent for a studio
apartment was affordable for some of the City’s very-low income households (refer to
Tables 3.10-10 and 3.10-11). However, as average rent would fall in the middle of the very
low range, households at the lower half of the very low income bracket could not afford
average market rents for studio. Further, large very low income households (i.e., more than
2 persons) would be overcrowded in studio units. Average market rents for a one-bedroom
apartment would be affordable for a small segment of very low income households and all
low-income households, although overcrowding would be an issue for larger households.
Extremely-low-income family is essentially priced out of the City’s housing market. The
average two- bedroom rental unit is affordable for a small segment of the City’s low income
households and all, moderate and above-moderate-income households, while average rent
for three bedroom homes leaves these affordable for some moderate and all above moderate
income households (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
Table 3.10-10. Median Residential Real Estate Sales Prices for City, County, and
State from 2001-2013
City County California Median
Price ($)
Percent
Change (%)
Median
Price ($)
Percent
Change (%)
Median
Price ($)
Percent
Change (%)
2001 331,568 -- 282,170 -- 263,505 --
2002 405,778 22.4 326,710 15.8 318,309 20.8
2003 451,150 11.2 381,750 16.8 371,523 16.7
2004 530,932 17.7 443,090 16.1 451,487 21.5
2005 601,665 13.3 553,780 25.0 526,316 16.6
2006 655,851 9.0 580,800 4.9 560,253 6.4
2007 581,040 -11.4 570,770 -1.7 554,623 -1.0
2008 564,213 -2.9 470,233 -17.6 378,233 -31.8
2009 570,000 1.0 385,551 -18.0 276,700 -26.8
2010 556,475 -2.4 384,002 -0.4 305,408 10.4
2011 554,000 -0.4 360,000 -6.3 287,523 -5.9
2012 502,000 -9.4 369,000 2.5 266,000 -7.5
2013 569,500 13.4 390,000 6.0 326,000 22.6
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-10 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
The median sales price for housing in the City was $569,000 in 2013. This median sales
price would generally be affordable only to the upper end of the moderate income range or
above moderate income categories based on the estimated mortgage payments. Table 3.10-
10 shows median City housing prices were higher than both the County and State. As such,
a growing disparity between household income and housing cost is forcing many to seek
housing outside the City.
Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA)
During the Housing Element's planning period from 2014 to 2019, the City is responsible
for accommodating a net increase of 1,144 dwelling units. The quantified objectives
promote the development of housing that meets affordability standards for the income
groups in the same proportion as the RHNA allocation, and emphasize production of multi-
family, higher density housing, where appropriate.11 Although not counted toward meeting
the City’s RHNA allocation because it is located just outside City limits, housing
developed by Cal Poly University on and adjacent to the campus on State land has played
a key role in meeting City housing needs.
Table 3.10-11. Remaining RHNA Need Based on Dwelling Units Approved, Under
Construction, or Built, 2014 to 2019
(Percent of Area Medium
Income)
New Construction
Need (RNHA)
Dwelling Units
Approved, Under
Construction or
Built (2014)
Remaining
RHNA Need,
Dwelling Units
Extremely Low Income (0-30%) 142 5 137
Very Low Income (31-50%) 143 33 110
Low Income (51-80%) 179 40 139
Moderate Income (81-120%) 202 63 139
Market Rate (120%+) 478 478 0
Total 1,144 619 525
Percent Affordable 40.5% 13.5% 100%
Total Need for Newly Constructed Affordable Units 525
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015b.
11 Under State law, each city and county is to develop programs designed to meet its share of the region's housing needs
for all income groups, as determined by the region’s council of governments. The State Department of Housing and
Community Development (HCD) identifies housing needs for all regions of the State. Councils of governments then
apportion the regional housing need among their member jurisdictions. The RHNA process seeks to ensure that each
jurisdiction accepts responsibility, within its physical and financial capability to do so, for the housing needs of its
residents and for those people who might reasonably be expected to move there. State housing law recognizes that
housing need allocations are goals that jurisdictions seek to achieve; however, they are not intended as production quotas.
The allocations are included in each jurisdiction’s Housing Element so that plans, policies and standards may be created
to help meet housing needs within this element's planning term.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-11
Final EIR
Consistent with state law, the City’s RHNA is reduced based on the number of dwelling
units approved, under construction, or built between January 1, 2014 and June 30, 2014
(see Table 3.10-11). These units are deducted from the RHNA number for each income
category to establish the City’s housing construction objectives for the Housing Element’s
planning period, 2014 to 2019. The City’s adjusted RHNA housing need for the five year
period from 2014 to 2019 is 525 dwelling units, and of these, 386 are needed for low, very-
low or extremely low income categories.
Table 3.10-12 summarizes the City’s quantified housing objectives for the five-year
planning period that do not utilize new construction of housing as a method for achieving
housing demand. As stated in the Housing Element, the City will utilize rehabilitation,
preservation, conservation, and financial assistance methods to increase the number of
affordable housing units. Although the quantified objectives are achievable, under adopted
land use plans and regulations, they do not include specific development quotas. The City
intends to use financial, planning, and administrative resources to meet its affordable
housing objectives, but cannot guarantee they will be achieved given limited financial
resources, economic uncertainty, independent financial decisions regarding housing
development, and the large gap between housing cost and median County residents’
incomes. Achieving the quantified objectives will hinge largely upon private development
decisions and the City’s ability to leverage additional Federal, State or local funding to
meet extremely low, very-low, low- and moderate income housing needs.
Using data on from Table 3.10-11 and Table 3.10-12, a projected total of 1,297 affordable
units would be needed within the City during 2014-2019 planning period to meet the
RHNA projected demand and the City’s Quantified Housing Objectives. Of the 1,297
affordable units, 525 units would be RHNA units that need to be constructed and the
remaining 772 would be units from the existing housing stock that would be otherwise
rehabilitated, preserved, conserved, or be provided financial assistance. In addition to the
478 market rate dwelling units that are currently planned, the total net demand for
additional housing units for the 2014-2019 planning period is 1,822 units. This exceeds the
housing needs recommendation encouraged by the RHNA and the City’s Quantified
Housing Objectives.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-12 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Table 3.10-12. San Luis Obispo Quantified Housing Objectives, 2014 to 2019
(Percent of Area
Medium Income) Rehabilitation Preservation Conservation Financial
Assistance
Extremely Low Income
(0-30%) 8 20 95 40
Very Low Income (31-
50%) 32 50 125 50
Low Income (51-80%) 75 0 100 60
Moderate Income (81-
120%) 58 0 100 75
Market Rate (120%+) 0 0 0 0
Total 127 70 350 225
Percent Affordable 100% 100% 100% 100%
Housing Approved,
Under Construction Or
Built 0 0 0 0
Quantified Housing
Objective by 2019 127 70 350 225
Total Quantified Housing Objective 772
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015a.
Jobs-to-Housing Ratio
The jobs-to-housing ratio in a jurisdiction is an overall indicator of both availability of jobs
within an area, providing residents with an opportunity to work locally, and availability of
housing, providing employees with adequate housing opportunities. The jobs-to-housing
balance is a planning tool to review whether a community has a healthy balance between
jobs and the housing supply available to potentially house workers for those jobs. This
balance may be impacted by the match between wage levels and housing costs; whether all
workers in a house have employment in the community in which they live; whether
preferences are met within the community for either housing or employment; and whether
options are available nearby for either housing or employment. According to the General
Plan Annual Report, the desired target is a jobs-to-housing-units ratio of 1.5:1, which
reflects that there is more than one worker living in the average household (City of San
Luis Obispo 2015b). Land Use Policy 1.5 states that the City’s housing stock should keep
pace with the growth in employment so that the jobs housing balance of 1.6:1 in 2015
would not worsen.
In 2010, SLOCOG estimated there were 33,000 jobs and an estimated 20,553 housing units
in the City. As shown in Table 3.10-13, this creates a jobs-to-housing balance of 1.6 to 1,
indicating that the City is jobs-rich, in comparison to the countywide ratio of 0.82 to 1.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-13
Final EIR
Because the City has the largest concentration of jobs of any location in the County, the
temporary population can increase up to 70,000 persons on workdays from the 46,117
residents, a 52 percent increase (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a; SLOCOG 2011).
Table 3.10-13. Jobs-to-Housing Ratio in 2010
Source: SLOCOG 2011.
Moreover, as indicated by the General Plan 2015 Annual Report and in Table 3.10-14, the
current jobs-to-housing ratio inside the City limits is 1.6 to 1 and if the jobs-to-housing
ratio included the employees of Cal Poly and the California Men’s Colony, which are
outside City limits, the balance would be 1.8 to 1.
Table 3.10-14. Jobs-to-Housing Ratio in 2015
Current Jobs to Housing
Estimated Jobs in City Limits 33,000
Housing Units 20,966
Jobs-to-Housing ratio 1.6:1
Cal Poly Jobs (Not in City) 2,811
California Men's Colony jobs (Not in City) 1,899
Jobs to Housing ratio including Cal Poly and Men's Colony 1.8:1
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2015b.
Full buildout of development planned under the 2014 LUCE Update would result in a jobs-
to-housing ratio of 1.8 to 1 within the City by 2035, improving the 2.1 to 1 jobs-to-housing
ratio forecast under the 1994 General Plan due to inclusion of increased opportunities for
residential development, thus improving the balance between projected jobs and housing
growth in the community. Although the jobs-to-housing ratio under the 2014 LUCE Update
would be improved from the ratio under the 1994 General Plan, buildout of the 2014 Land
Use Element would still result in a relative jobs-rich environment, with continued
imbalance between jobs and housing within the City as compared to the County as a whole
(City of San Luis Obispo 2015b; City of San Luis Obispo 2014a).
Planning Area Jobs Housing Units Jobs to Housing Ratio
City 33,000 20,553 1.6
County 95,900 117,315 0.82
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-14 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
City Growth Forecasts and Buildout Capacity
SLOCOG
SLOCOG Regional Growth Forecasts projects an increase in City population of 4,271 new
residents, 2,429 housing units, and 9,400 jobs between 2010 and 2035. Assuming 550 non‐
residential square feet per job, there is a demand for 5,170,000 square feet of non‐
residential floor area between 2010 and 2035 within the City (SLOCOG 2011).
Land Use Element
Potential future development within the City permitted under the land use designations and
policies of the 2014 Land Use Element Update could result in approximately 4,904
additional housing units, 11,229 new residents, and 5,081,708 square feet of non‐
residential uses that would support 11,346 new jobs. Although the Land Use Element is a
long range planning blueprint with a planning horizon of 2035, it’s worth noting that the
total future development capacity under the proposed Land Use Element exceeds the
SLOCOG Regional Growth Forecast in population, housing units, and employment (see
Table 3.10-15; City of San Luis Obispo 2014c).
Table 3.10-15. SLOCOG Projections vs. LUCE Buildout Capacity for 2035
SLOCOG Forecast in 20351 Land Use Element Total Future
Development Capacity2
Population 48,550 57,200
Housing Units 23,204 25,762
Employment 42,400 44,346
Non-Residential
Square Footage from
2010 to 20353
5,170,000 5,081,708
Sources: SLOCOG 2011; City of San Luis Obispo 2014c; City of San Luis Obispo 2014b.
1 See Table 2.3‐4 of LUCE EIR.
2 See Table 3 of Land Use Element
3 Estimated using 550 non‐residential square feet per job.
3.10.3 Regulatory Setting
3.10.3.1 Federal
There are no federal planning regulations that apply to population, housing, and
employment for this Project.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-15
Final EIR
3.10.3.2 State
Housing Element Law- Article 10.6 of the Government Code (Sections 65580-65589.8)
California legislature has declared the attainment of affordable housing and a sustainable
living environment for every Californian to be of vital importance. Attaining the State’s
housing goals requires efforts from all sectors, including the private sector and all levels of
government. Each local government has the power to facilitate the improvement and
development of housing for all economic segments of the community accounting for
economic, environmental and fiscal factors as well as community goals and housing
element. The housing element identifies and analyzes existing and projected housing needs
and also provides implementation measures for these programs. Each jurisdiction in the
state must update its housing element at least every eight years in accordance with Article
10.16 of the Government Code.
Regional Housing Needs Plan
The Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) is required under California Government Code
Section 65584 to enable regions to address housing issues and meet housing needs based
on future growth projections for the area. The State of California determines the number
of total housing units needed for each region. The allocation comes after projection
modeling based on current General Plan policies and established land use zonings. The
allocations are based on “smart growth” assumptions in the modeling and aim to shift
development patterns from historical trends towards better jobs-to-housing balance,
increased preservation of open space, and development of urban and transit-accessible
areas. Regional housing needs are based on the local and regional distribution of income,
the need for housing generated by local job growth, the projected growth in the number of
households, and the vacancy rate in each community.
3.10.3.3 Local
City of San Luis Obispo General Plan
Land Use Element
Policy LU 1.5 Jobs/Housing Relationship. The gap between housing demand (due to more
jobs and college enrollment) and supply should not increase.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-16 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Policy LU 1.11 Growth Rates & Phasing.
Policy LU 1.11.1 Overall Intent. The City shall manage the city’s growth rate to
provide for the balanced evolution of the community and the gradual assimilation
of new residents. Growth must be consistent with the City's ability to provide
resources and services and with State and City requirements for protecting the
environment, the economy, and open space.
Policy LU 1.11.2 Residential Growth Rate. The City shall manage the growth of
the City's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per year, on average,
based on thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 3, excluding dwellings
affordable to residents with extremely low, very low or low incomes as defined by
the Housing Element. This rate of growth may continue so long as the City's basic
service capacity is assured. Table 3.10-16 below shows the approximate number of
dwellings and residents which would result from the one percent maximum average
annual growth rate over the planning period. Approved specific plan areas may
develop in accordance with the phasing schedule adopted by each specific plan
provided thresholds established by Table 3.10-15 are not exceeded. The City
Council shall review the rate of growth on an annual basis in conjunction with the
General Plan annual report to ensure consistency with the City’s gradual
assimilation policy.
Table 3.10-16. Land Use Element - 1% Population Growth Projection and Housing
Supply Thresholds
Year Approximate Maximum Number of Dwellings* Anticipated Population Growth
2013 20,697 45,541
2015 21,113 46,456
2020 22,190 48,826
2025 23,322 51,317
2030 24,512 53,934
2035 25,762 56,686
Estimated Urban Reserve Capacity 57,200
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2014c.
Housing Element
The City of San Luis Obispo Housing Element sets forth the City’s policies and detailed
programs for meeting existing and future housing needs, for preserving and enhancing
neighborhoods, and for increasing affordable housing opportunities for extremely low,
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-17
Final EIR
very-low, low and moderate income persons and households. It is the primary policy guide
for local decision-making on all housing matters. The Housing Element also describes the
City´s demographic, economic and housing factors, as required by State law.
State housing law requires that each jurisdiction identify the number of housing units that
can be built, rehabilitated, and preserved during the Housing Element’s planning period,
which ends June 30, 2019. These projections are termed quantified objectives. Chapter 3
of the Housing Element includes goals, policies, and programs to accommodate affordable
housing programs that meet the City’s quantified objectives (City of San Luis Obispo
2015a).
The General Plan Housing Element Goal 2 objective is to accommodate affordable housing
production that helps meet the City’s quantified objectives. In particular, the following
policies and program address the inclusion of affordable units in new residential
development:
Policy HE 2.3 For housing to qualify as "affordable" under the provisions of this Element,
guarantees must be presented that ownership or rental housing units will remain affordable
for the longest period allowed by State law, or for a shorter period under an equity-sharing
or housing rehabilitation agreement with the City.
Policy HE 2.4 Encourage housing production for all financial strata of the City's
population, in the proportions shown in the Regional Housing Needs Allocation, for the
2014 - 2019 planning period. These proportions are: extremely low income, 12 percent,
very low income, 12 percent; low income, 16 percent; moderate income, 18 percent; and
above moderate income, 42 percent.
Program HE 2.5 Continue to manage the Affordable Housing Fund so that the fund serves
as a sustainable resource for supporting affordable housing development. The fund shall
serve as a source of both grant funding and below market financing for affordable housing
projects; and funds shall be used to support a wide variety of housing types at the following
income levels: extremely low, very low, low, and moderate, but with a focus on production
efficiency to maximize housing benefits for the City’s financial investment, and to support
high quality housing projects that would not be feasible without Affordable Housing Fund
support.
The General Plan Housing Element Goal 4 Mixed-Income Housing includes policies
directed towards preserving and accommodating existing and new mixed-income
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-18 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
neighborhoods. In particular, the following policy and program address the inclusion of
affordable units in new residential development:
Policy HE 4.2 Include both market-rate and affordable units in apartment and residential
condominium projects and intermix the types of units. Affordable units should be
comparable in size, appearance and basic quality to market-rate units.
Program HE 4.6 Consider amending the City’s Inclusionary Housing Ordinance and
Affordable Housing Incentives to require that affordable units in a development be of
similar number of bedrooms, character and basic quality as the non-restricted units in
locations that avoid segregation of such units.
Inclusionary Housing Program
Adopted in 1999 and amended in 2004, the Inclusionary Housing Program implements two
core housing programs of the General Plan – that of providing affordable housing for
extremely-low, very-low, low and moderate income households, and establishing an
Affordable Housing Fund. The program requires that most new development projects help
meet affordable housing needs by: 1) building the required number of affordable dwelling
units as part of a development project (see Table 3.10-17a and Table 3.10-17b); 2)
dedicating real property, improved or not, for development of affordable housing by the
City’s Housing Authority or by a non-profit housing provider; 3) paying an in-lieu fee
which is used to fund affordable housing throughout the City; or 4) use a combination of
the above methods, to the approval of the City Council (City of San Luis Obispo 2015a).
All affordable dwelling units must meet the City’s affordable housing standards, and be
consistent with affordability policies in the General Plan. In addition, the required
inclusionary units shall be constructed concurrent with market rate units unless the
developer and the City council agree within an affordable agreement to an alternative
development schedule. Table 3.10-17a below displays the Inclusionary Housing
Requirements and Table 3.10-17b details the associated inclusionary housing adjustment
factors.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-19
Final EIR
Table 3.10-17a. Inclusionary Housing Requirements
Type of Development Project1
Residential – Adjust base requirement per Table 2A below
Location
In City Limits
(applies to Project)
Build 3% low4 or 5% moderate income Affordable Dwelling Units2,
but not less than 1 Affordable Dwelling Unit per project;
or
Pay in-lieu fee equal to 5% of building valuation.3
In Expansion Area Build 5% low4 – and 10% moderate income Affordable Dwelling
Units2, but not less than 1 Affordable Dwelling Unit per project;
or
Pay in-lieu fee equal to 15% of building valuation.
1 Residential developments of four or less dwelling are except from these requirements.
2 Affordable Dwelling Units must meet the City affordability criteria.
3 “Building Valuation” shall mean the total value of all construction work for which a permit would be issued, as
determined by the Chief Building Officer.
4 Low income includes the subsets of extremely low and very low incomes categories.
Table 3.10-17b. Inclusionary Housing Adjustment Factors
Table 2A
Project
Density
(du/ac)1
Average Unit Size (sq. ft.) and associated Adjustment Factor2
Up to 1,100 1,101-1,500 1,501-2,000 2,001-2,500 2,501-3,000 >3,000
36 or more 0 0 .75 1 1.25 1.5
24-35.99 0 0 .75 1 1.25 1.5
12-23.99 0 .25 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
7-11.99 0 .5 1 1.25 1.5 1.75
<7 0 .5 1.25 1.5 1.75 2
1 Including allowed density bonus, where applicable.
2 Multiply the total base Inclusionary Housing Requirement (either housing or in-lieu percentage) by the adjustment
factor to determine requirement. At least one enforceably-restricted affordable unit is required per development of five
or more units.
The developer may, at his or her discretion, choose to pay an in-lieu fee to the City or
dedicate real property in lieu of constructing affordable dwellings to meet the requirement.
The fee amount and method of payment are subject to approval by the City Community
Development Department Director. All in-lieu fees shall be paid prior to release of
occupancy of the first dwelling within a residential development. All in-lieu fees are
deposited into the Affordable Housing Fund. The Affordable Housing Fund is administered
by the City finance director and shall be used exclusively to provide funding for the
provision of affordable housing and for reasonable costs associated with the development
of affordable housing, at the discretion of the City Council.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-20 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
3.10.4 Environmental Impact Analysis
3.10.4.1 Thresholds of Significance
Significance thresholds for population and housing are provided in Appendix G of the
California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines. Impacts to population and
housing are considered significant if the proposed Project would:
a) Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (e.g., by proposing
new homes and businesses) or indirectly (e.g., through extension of roads or other
infrastructure);
b) Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of
replacement housing elsewhere;
c) Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of
replacement housing elsewhere;
d) Substantially affect the jobs/housing ratio within the City with associated effects
on public health and welfare through effects on housing stock, job creation,
increased housing demand, housing overcrowding and/or, substantial overpayment
of housing rents, and use of substandard units for housing;
e) Substantially affect the supply of labor force or affordable housing; or
f) Affect long-distance commuting from more affordable communities with
associated indirect effects such as increased commute distances and time, increased
energy consumption, greenhouse gas, and air pollutant emissions from additional
commuters.
Impacts are also considered significant if the proposed Project is found inconsistent with
adopted housing goals and policies described in the regulatory setting. Growth inducing
impacts relating to installation of new roadways and utility infrastructure are addressed in
Section 4.0, Other CEQA Sections. As the Project site does not currently contain a
residential population, the Project would not displace substantial numbers of persons or
housing and therefore thresholds ‘b’ and ‘c’ would not apply.
3.10.4.2 Impact Assessment Methodology
Analysis of population and housing impacts is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau,
the City of San Luis Obispo’s Land Use and Housing Elements. Demographic and
socioeconomic data from these sources are relatively consistent; however, since each of
these organizations uses different methods of data collection and analysis, data do not
always have the same results and may not represent the same data year. Accordingly, the
population, housing, and employment numbers used in this analysis may vary somewhat,
depending upon the source cited. Despite the variances, the data used represents the best
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-21
Final EIR
available data sources and provides a meaningful description of the population and housing
characteristics of the County and City.
This analysis reviews potential land use changes and future development that would occur
under the Project and considers whether these changes would result in substantial
population, household, and employment growth, particularly in relation to existing
conditions and to cumulative growth estimated in the LUCE Update EIR. The EIR also
considers potential for changes in population or displacement of existing housing or
residents and the general effect on the City’s jobs-housing balance. Potential related
impacts of population and employment growth on issues such as transportation, public
services, and other issues are addressed throughout the remaining sections of this EIR.
3.10.4.3 Project Impacts and Mitigation Measures
An imbalance between jobs and housing, particularly affordable housing, may result in a
range of undesirable environmental impacts and social effects, including:
• Increased commute distances and time;
• Increased energy consumption, greenhouse gas, and air pollutant emissions from
additional commuters;
• Critical service workers living outside the area (e.g., firefighters, nurses, school
teachers);
• Increased business costs and difficulty retaining and recruiting employees;
• Change in demographic composition and impacts to the quality of life and
community participation; and
• Indirect impacts on other communities that build housing, such as loss of habitat.
Table 3.10-18. Summary of Project Impacts
Population and Housing Impacts Mitigation
Measures Residual Significance
PH-1. Residential development and associated
population growth resulting from the Project would
not exceed the adopted annual growth rate
threshold.
None required Less than Significant
PH-2. The construction of 720 units under the
Project would provide additional housing for the
City of San Luis Obispo, having beneficial impacts
related to the jobs/housing imbalance.
None required Beneficial
PH-3. The construction of affordable housing units
under the Project would provide additional
affordable housing for the City of San Luis Obispo.
None required Less than Significant
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-22 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Impact PH-1 Residential development and associated population growth resulting
from the Project would not exceed the adopted annual growth rate
threshold (Less than Significant).
Population growth within the City is directly related to the increase in available housing
supply. The City’s Land Use Element Growth Management Policy LU 1.11.2 allows for
an increase in housing units up to 1.0 percent annually on average, excluding affordable
housing units.
Increase in Housing Units
As stated in the 2015 General Plan Annual Report, there were approximately 20,966
housing units within the City in 2015. The Project would add 720 new residential units to
the City (105 low density units, 305 medium density units, 185 medium-high density units,
and 125 high density units), outside of the current RHNA and Housing Element cycle,
though would be necessarily compliant with ensuing iterations. As stated in the 2015
General Plan Annual Report, the number of housing units within the City is projected to
be 22,190 in the year 2020. This serves as the baseline for which annual growth attributed
to the Project is evaluated. Assuming phased construction of the housing units, with
completion of Phase 1 in 2023 and full occupancy of residential units developed by the
Project by end of 2030, the Project would result in an average of 80 units becoming
available annually in the 9 years between 2022 and 2030 (see Table 3.10-19 for a
breakdown of units per phase). This would lead to an annual increase in housing units
ranging from 0.13 to 0.97 percent per year, or an annual average increase of 0.54 percent
in the City’s housing supply during those years. These are conservative estimates utilizing
the total amount of units proposed by the Project.
It is noted that Policy LU 8.1.2 and the Inclusionary Housing Requirements would require
15 percent of the 720 proposed units to be inclusionary units; these inclusionary units,
however, would be excluded from the 1.0 percent annual average growth rate threshold
stated within Policy LU 1.11.2. As such, the annual average rate of increase in residential
units that would be taken into consideration for Policy LU 1.11.2 represents a conservative
estimate. Assuming 15 percent of the 720 units would be inclusionary, the Project,
excluding inclusionary units, would contribute to an annual increase in housing units
ranging from 0.11 to 0.83 percent, with an average rate of 0.46 percent per year. Therefore,
the average annual growth rate under the Project would be below the one percent annual
average increase allowed by Policy LU 1.11.2 in the General Plan, and the increase in
housing units would be consistent with this policy.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-23
Final EIR
Increase in Population
If the citywide average household size of 2.29 persons per household were applied to this
Project, the proposed Project would be expected to increase the City’s population by
approximately 1,649 residents. As of 2016, according to the Department of Finance the
anticipated population of San Luis Obispo was 46,117. The addition of 1,649 residents as
a result of the Project would increase the City’s existing population by 3.5 percent total
after full buildout of the Development Plan. However, the population growth from the
Project has been planned by the Land Use Element and would be consistent with Land Use
Element and SLOCOG future projections with implementation of Project phasing.
The Project would be constructed in six phases over an approximate 10-year period
between 2020 and 2030 (see Table 3.10-19). The Project’s development phases would
result in substantial residential growth over the phased construction of the Project, between
completion of Phase 1 in 2023 and full operation of the Project in 2030. Conservatively
assuming all housing units would be occupied within one year of unit completion, this
would result in increases in population ranging from 66 to 495 persons per year or an
average increase of 275 persons per year, resulting in approximately 0.59-percent annual
average population growth for the City during the years 2023 and 2030. Excluding
residents within the assumed inclusionary units, the Project would result in an annual
average population growth of approximately 0.51 percent.
As described in Section 3.10.2.1, Population, population growth in the City of San Luis
Obispo has historically been an average of 0.38 percent annually between 1990 and 2016.
The Land Use Element projects a 0.5 percent annual population growth until 2035 while
the SLOCOG projects a 0.4 percent annual population growth rate until 2030. Therefore,
the 0.51 percent annual average population growth rate introduced by the Project would
remain under City’s allowable annual average growth rates of one percent annually listed
in Policy LU 1.11.2.
The increase in population under the Project would be well below the projected
development capacity within the Land Use Element, which plans for a future additional
population of 11,229 (refer to Table 3.10-15 above). Therefore, population increases
resulting from the Project would remain within planned growth under the Land Use
Element.
The Project would be compliant with the intent of the City’s growth management strategies
relating to the annual average and overall increases in housing units and population,
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-24 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
consistent with the Land Use Element projected population forecasts. Therefore, annual
average growth rates generated by this Project would be less than significant.
Table 3.10-19. Population Growth by Project Phase
Phase Completion
Year Construction of dwelling Units Associated Increase in
Population
1 2023 185 R-2 units 424
2 2024 29 R-2 units 66
3 2025 91 R-2 units and 125 R-4 Units (216 units total) 495
4 2028 185 R-3 units 424
5 2028 105 R-1 units 240
6 2030 0 0
Total Population Increase 1,649
Impact PH-2 The construction of 720 units under the Project would provide
additional housing for the City of San Luis Obispo, having beneficial
impacts related to the jobs-to-housing ratio (Beneficial).
Within the City, employment is projected to grow by an average of 0.84 percent annually,
while housing is projected to grow by an average of 0.5 percent annually. Because the City
has approximately 31,907 jobs, but a labor force of approximately 28,400, such projected
growth would exacerbate the City’s existing jobs-to-housing ratio and displace labor force
from the City to other areas of the County, with associated incremental increases in long
distance commuting and associated adverse effects.
Policy LU 1.5 states the gap between housing demand (due to more jobs and college
enrollment) and supply should not increase. According to SLOCOG and the City’s General
Plan 2015 Annual Report, the jobs-to-housing ratio for the City is currently 1.6 to 1, with
a desired target ratio of 1.5 to 1. The Project’s proposed construction of 720 units would
contribute to improving the jobs-to-housing ratio and provide additional housing for the
existing and growing labor force.
The Project would also include 15,000 sf of Neighborhood Commercial uses which will
create approximately 27 jobs assuming 550 sf per job, which is the assumed job factor in
the LUCE Update EIR. In addition, development of the Project would provide short-term
construction jobs; however, it is expected that these jobs would largely draw from the
existing labor force. As such, the Project would result in an incremental contribution to the
number of jobs within the City. The increase in 720 housing units under the Project would
assist in alleviating the City’s current 1.6 to 1 jobs-to-housing ratio by providing more
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-25
Final EIR
housing. The Project’s impact to the jobs-to-housing ratio is discussed below in relation to
both the SLOCOG projections and Land Use Element buildout.
Jobs-to-Housing Ratio using SLOCOG Projections
The SLOCOG Regional Growth Forecast projects an increase of 2,651 housing units and
4,613 new residents along with an increase of 9,400 jobs between 2010 and 2035 for the
City. Project implementation would result in construction of 720 units and 15,000 sf of
non-residential floor area, which is well within the overall SLOCOG regional growth
forecast for population, housing, and employment for the 25-year projections, and would
therefore be consistent with SLOCOG forecasts.
As a result of the Project, 720 units would be added to the City’s existing 20,966 housing
unit stock and 27 new jobs to the existing 31,907 jobs. Under SLOCOG housing and
employment projections, the Project’s proposed housing would assist in reducing the City’s
jobs-to-housing imbalance by providing more housing units within the City, in accordance
with Land Use Policy 1.5.
Jobs-to-Ratio Projections using Land Use Element Buildout
Potential future development within the City as allowed under the land use designations
and policies of the LUCE Update could result in eventual construction of approximately
4,904 additional dwelling units with 11,229 residents, and creation of 5,081,708 sf of new
non‐residential development which would support an estimated 11,346 new jobs. Based on
information and methodologies provided in the General Plan 2015 Annual Report for jobs-
to-housing ratio, Project development would be consistent with Policy LU 1.5 and would
assist in improving the City’s existing jobs-to-housing ratio by developing more housing
units within the City. In comparison, over the long term, full buildout under the Land Use
Element would increase the jobs-to-housing ratio to 1.8 jobs per residential unit, according
to the General Plan Annual Report 2015.
Using both SLOCOG projections and General Plan 2015 Annual Report data, the Project
would provide a substantial increase in the City’s housing supply, including a range of
housing types and affordability with minimal long-term job growth, resulting in an
improvement to the City’s jobs-to-housing ratio in accordance with Land Use Element
Policy 1.5. Therefore impacts relating to the City’s jobs-to-housing ratio, along with
incremental secondary benefits related to decreases in long distance commuting, would be
considered beneficial.
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
3.10-26 Avila Ranch Development Project
Final EIR
Impact PH-3 The construction of affordable housing units under the Project would
provide additional affordable housing for the City of San Luis Obispo
(Less than Significant).
As stated above, the Project would result in the construction of 720 residential units, of
which, the Applicant proposes to include 105 units to be affordable (70 R-3 medium-high
density apartments and townhouses, and 35 R-4 high-density apartments). In accordance
to Municipal Code 17.91, inclusionary units are those, in which, extremely-low, very-low,
low- and moderate income households can afford to purchase or rent, assuming 30 percent
of their annual income is spent on housing (25 percent of income for extremely low income
households). As the Project is located in a Specific Plan Area it is subject to the Expansion
Area Inclusionary Housing Requirements which require the Project to build 5 percent low-
and 10 percent moderate-income affordable dwelling units. Policy HE 4.1 requires new
development to build housing that is affordable to various economic strata intermixed with
other housing rather than segregated into separate enclaves; and Policy HE 4.2 requires
both market-rate and inclusionary units to be included in apartment and residential
condominium projects and intermixed with all type of units. This policy also requires that
inclusionary units are built to be comparable in size, appearance, and basic quality to
market-rate units. Further, the Project would be compliant with Tables 2 and 2A of the
Inclusionary Housing Program as described in the regulatory setting to comply with the
required proportion of affordable housing units within the Project site of the 720 residential
units. As such, the Project is potentially consistent with the policies described above and
impacts would be less than significant.
3.10.4.4 Cumulative Impacts
Cumulative buildout permitted under the LUCE Update would include development of
areas within existing City boundaries, as well as identified expansion areas. Overall,
development under the Land Use Element would increase both the supply of jobs and
housing within the City.
A comparison of population and housing unit characteristics conditions in 2010 and those
at projected buildout of the Land Use Element in 2035 for the City and County of San Luis
Obispo show that projected population and housing unit growth in the City is anticipated
to be commensurate with anticipated growth throughout San Luis Obispo County (Table
3.10-20).
3.10 POPULATION AND HOUSING
Avila Ranch Development Project 3.10-27
Final EIR
Table 3.10-20. City and Countywide Population and Housing Projections, 2010-2035
Population Housing Units
2010 2035 2010 2035
County of San Luis Obispo 252,631 304,736 117,315 141,888
Average Annual Growth (%) -- 0.8 -- 0.8
City of San Luis Obispo 43,937 56,686 20,553 23,762
Average Annual Growth (%) -- 1.1 -- 0.6
Source: City of San Luis Obispo 2014c.
Much of the potential residential unit growth identified by the Land Use Element Update
would occur in areas identified for proposed specific plans and a proposed area plan. In
addition to the 720 units within the proposed Project, the San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
would add approximately 580 residential units (including an 80-unit density bonus) to the
City’s housing supply and the Madonna on LOVR project would provide an additional 115
units. Moreover, future development proposed under the South Broad Street Area Plan
would have the potential to provide approximately 589 additional dwelling units. In total,
these projects could result in the development of approximately 2,000 new dwelling units
(City of San Luis Obispo 2014c).
In addition to the proposed specific and area plans described above, the proposed LUCE
Update identifies six potential future development sites that could provide approximately
412 new housing units. These sites include the Foothill at Santa Rosa area (80 units);
Caltrans site (53 units); General Hospital site (41 units); Pacific Beach site (38 units);
LOVR Creekside area (159 units); and the Broad Street at Tank Farm Road site (41 units).
While development of these projects would be consistent with the residential unit growth
requirements specified by Land Use Element Policy 1.11.2 and Table 3.10-17a and 17b,
there may be pressure to exceed the annual one percent rate allowed under Policy LU
1.11.2. However, the Project contribution would be consistent with Land Use and Housing
Element policies and would not result in significant cumulative contribution.
Further, the total future developmental capacity under the proposed Land Use Element
exceeds the SLOCOG projected demand in population, housing units, and employment.
The Land Use Element can accommodate over 98 percent of projected demand for
nonresidential square footage (City of San Luis Obispo 2014c). Therefore, cumulative
impacts would be less than significant.
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