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HomeMy WebLinkAbout12-12-2017 Item 01 - Community Choice Energy study Sessin Meeting Date: 12/12/2017 FROM: Greg Hermann, Acting Assistant City Manager Michael Codron, Community Development Director Prepared By: Marcus Carloni, Sustainability Coordinator SUBJECT: COMMUNITY CHOICE ENERGY STUDY SESSION RECOMMENDATION 1. Receive and file the Technical Feasibility Study on Community Choice Energy (CCE) for the Tri-County area including San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara County, and Ventura County (Attachment E); and 2. Receive and file an initial feasibility study prepared by Pilot Power Group for the intra- county region – City of San Luis Obispo and County of San Luis Obispo (Attachment F); and 3. Provide staff with direction regarding whether or not to continue to pursue community choice energy options as follows: 1. Form a new CCE program; or 2. Solicit proposals to identify an existing CCE program to join; or 3. Discontinue or pause the pursuit of a CCE program at this time. REPORT-IN-BRIEF Climate Action was included as a Major City Goal in 2017-2019 Financial Plan. A key action in this goal included the following objective: Assess and report the requirements to achieve the “net-zero carbon City” target including feasibility analysis and implementation of a Community Choice Energy program. The purpose of this staff report is to provide information on the feasibility analyses completed to date for CCE programs, pursuant to the Major City Goal objective, and for the City Council to provide direction on next steps. In 2015 the City Council approved a resolution authorizing the City’s participation in the exploration of Community Choice Energy. Since approval of that resolution, the City has been involved in two feasibility study efforts: 1) the Intra-County Study - a pro-bono “initial feasibility study” prepared by Pilot Power Group designed to provide a high- level assessment of CCE feasibility within San Luis Obispo County, and 2) the Tri-County Feasibility Study – a multi-jurisdictional feasibility study providing a detailed analysis of eight geographical CCE participation scenarios across San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties (including the City jurisdictions within those Counties). The findings of the Intra-County Study generally align with the findings of a peer review of the Tri-County study, finding with high probability that a new CCE program would be able to cover its costs, generate net revenue, and maintain rate competitiveness across the studied scenarios. Packet Pg 9 1 The results of the Tri-County study were released in September 2017 and conclude that a newly created regional CCE program spanning San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties is not likely to be a viable venture in terms of the CCE program’s ability to provide competitive rates and remain a solvent organization. However, the results of the peer review indicate that it may be possible for a local or regional CCE program operating within Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) territory only (e.g. in San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara County) to offer competitive rates while covering its costs. The Tri-County Feasibility Study and the Intra-County Study, however, did not consider the viability of joining an existing CCE program, which is another potential option for the City. Of the in-development CCE’s, Monterey Bay Community Power (MBCP) is the only one within PG&E service territory and the City could pursue joining this effort, or other CCE programs accepting new jurisdictions. In addition to the option to join an existing CCE program such as MBCP, this report provides several other options for the City Council’s consideration and direction to staff. Such options include forming a new local CCE program that only includes the City of San Luis Obispo, and/or forming a new CCE program wherein the City takes the lead to work with and include other jurisdictions to establish a larger CCE. General pros and cons with these options are provided herein together with a comparison table, and next steps associated with each of these options, dependent upon City Council direction. Note: for a glossary of terms used in this report please see Attachment A. DISCUSSION Background 1. About Community Choice Energy Community Choice Energy (CCE), also known as Community Choice Aggregation (CCA), enables local governments to leverage the purchasing power of their residents, businesses, and governments to purchase or generate power for their communities. When a CCE program is formed, the CCE provider purchases the electricity—which typically includes a higher percentage of electricity from renewable resources like wind and solar—and sets the rates charged to customers. The existing “investor-owned utility” (IOU), PG&E in our region, continues to deliver the electricity purchased by the CCE provider over their power lines and continues to provide metering, billing, and other customer service as they do now. The day-to- day experience for the customer is the same, meaning services continue to be provided by PG&E and the only difference is that energy is purchased through the CCE. Currently, there are nine CCE programs in operation throughout California: five in the San Francisco Bay Area, one in Humboldt County, and three in the Los Angeles area. The longest- standing CCE program is MCE Clean Energy, which began operations in Marin County in 2010 and has since grown to also include parts of Napa, Solano, and Contra Costa Counties. More than 20 jurisdictions are actively studying or developing CCE programs, with several programs Packet Pg 10 1 expected to launch in 2018. Attachment D includes a matrix prepared by County of Santa Barbara staff that compares the nine operational CCE programs and three in-development CCE programs. All of the operational and in-development CCE programs conducted feasibility studies that suggested CCE would be economically viable for their communities. 2. Steps to Forming a CCE Program There are three basic steps to forming a CCE program as provided below. • Step 1 (Feasibility): Assess the viability of CCE via a feasibility study. The study is typically prepared by a third-party with energy industry expertise with input from local government staff/elected officials and community members. A key milestone at this stage is obtaining electricity consumption data from the existing investor-owned utility (e.g. PG&E) and beginning to develop relationships with the investor-owned utility (IOU) as a working partnership with them is required. • Step 2 (Implementation): If feasible, the next step is to set up the CCE program implementation organization, prepare an implementation plan and IOU service agreements. If multiple jurisdictions are involved, a joint powers authority (JPA) is formed. The implementation plan must be certified by the California Public Utilities Commission and provides more detail about how the CCE program will be launched and operated. Power procurement and other service contracts may also be initiated during this phase, and more robust outreach and education efforts can occur. • Phase 3 (Launch): Launch the CCE program. This includes setting up the systems and processes, and securing vendors and staff needed to provide electricity service to customers. Key activities include hiring staff/vendors, purchasing power, setting up power scheduling systems and procedures with the California Independent System Operator, developing customer support programs, establishing billing systems and processes with the IOU, posting a California Public Utilities Commission bond and required deposits, developing marketing materials, and notifying customers of program launch. Previous Council Direction In December 2013 City Staff presented the City Council with a detailed report to educate the Council and community about CCE. No formal action was taken at that time other than exploratory steps including appointing Councilmembers to a CCE exploration advisory committee and allow the City Manager to release City power usage data to facilitate exploration of potential feasibility. In March 2015 the City Council approved Resolution No. 10609 confirming the City of San Luis Obispo’s participation in the exploration of CCE. The resolution authorized participation in an inter-jurisdictional investigation into CCE feasibility allowing execution of appropriate documents to allow technical consultants to acquire energy usage load data from the electric distribution utility for analysis as part of the feasibi lity study. (See Attachment B for the December 2013 staff report, March 2015 staff report, and March 2015 resolution.) Since adoption of the resolution, City staff have been involved in two CCE feasibility studies - Packet Pg 11 1 the Central Coast Power feasibility study (also known as the “Tri-County” feasibility study) and the Intra-County initial feasibility study. Details on these two efforts are provided below. Update on efforts since Council direction 1. Tri-County Feasibility Study In 2016, the Tri-County (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties) CCE feasibility study effort began; led by the County of Santa Barbara with funding from ten other jurisdictions 1 and the Community Environmental Council, and was conducted by Willdan Financial Services (Willdan). A peer review was subsequently conducted by MRW & Associates. Staff from the eleven jurisdictions participated in an Advisory Working Group (AWG) to help guide and oversee the feasibility analysis, provide outreach support, and monitor policy and program developments related to CCE. The City of San Luis Obispo was not directly apart of the AWG but worked closely with County of San Luis Obispo and County of Santa Barbara staff to monitor the process. Scope of Tri-County Feasibility Study This study evaluated the feasibility of forming a new CCE program run by one or multiple local governments in the Tri-County Region. The study did not consider the viability of one or more jurisdictions joining an existing CCE program. The study assessed financial feasibility in terms of the ability of a local/regional CCE program to provide competitive electricity rates while meeting policy goals and covering substantial CCE program formation costs and ongoing operating expenses over a ten-year study period (2020- 2030). The Advisory Working Group (AWG) selected eight participation scenarios to explore the feasibility of different sizes and configurations for the CCE program and the potential effect of customer demographics. In addition, due to the complexity of evaluating the feasibility of forming a new CCE, the AWG took the additional prudent step to commission MRW & Associates (MRW) to conduct a third-party peer review of the Willdan feasibility study – to evaluate the assumptions and conclusions of Willdan’s work. For details on the participation scenarios and discussion of the Tri-County Feasibility Study see Attachment C (County of Santa Barbara Staff Report to Board of Supervisors October 3, 2017) and see Attachment E (Tri- County Feasibility Study). Findings of Tri-County Feasibility Study and MRW Peer Review In summary, the feasibility study indicates that a newly created regional CCE program spanning San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties is likely not a viable venture in terms of the CCE program’s ability to provide competitive rates and remain a solvent organization. Key factors that led to this conclusion are the very large size of the region leading to expensive and 1 County of San Luis Obispo, County of Santa Barbara, County of Ventura, Cities of Camarillo, Carpinteria, Moorpark, Santa Barbara, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Ventura. Packet Pg 12 1 risky debt issues, assumptions about significantly higher than expected future power cost projections, and complications arising from potentially operating in two utility service territories (Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and Southern California Edison (SCE)). SCE’s relatively less expensive rates also contributed to the infeasibility finding. However, the results of the peer review (Attachment E, Tri-County Feasibility Study, Appendix L) indicate that it may be possible for a local or regional CCE program to operate within Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) territory, i.e., in San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara County, to offer competitive rates while covering its costs. In its peer review, MRW did a rate comparison for unincorporated San Luis Obispo Count y which is fully within PG&E territory. Figure 1 (below) shows the CCE program’s expected rates (as shown by the stacked bar charts illustrating CCE costs) compared to the applicable IOU rates (blue line) for unincorporated San Luis Obispo County. Figure 1 shows that, after the first year, the unincorporated San Luis Obispo County CCE program’s rates are expected to also be roughly the same/lower than PG&E’s rates, with the exception of a three-year period from 2025 through 2027 where the rates are projected to exceed PG&E’s rates, and then dip back down below PG&E rates for the remaining years. This three-year anomaly is due to the anticipated closure of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, which is expected to temporarily lower PG&E’s rates due to PG&E’s plans to replace Diablo Canyon’s output with low-cost energy efficiency rather than new generation. Figure 1. CCE versus PG&E Rate Comparison, Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario It is worth noting that the Tri-County feasibility study evaluates the feasibility of forming a new CCE program run by one or multiple local governments in the Tri-County Region. The study did not consider the viability of one or more jurisdictions joining an existing CCE program, which is a potential option for the City of San Luis Obispo. Packet Pg 13 1 Tri-County Study – Current Status At this point, the County of San Luis Obispo, County of Ventura, and the other core jurisdictions are no longer involved in the Tri-County study. The study is still moving forward (scope has been adjusted, new consultants have been hired) and continues to be led by County of Santa Barbara staff, but with the withdrawal of the jurisdictions noted above, the study’s scope is now limited to assessing the feasibility of a CCE program within Unincorporated Santa Barbara County and the City of Santa Barbara and is now being performed by Pacific Energy Advisors. The County of Santa Barbara Board has also directed their staff to look into the possibility of joining the two nearby in-development CCE programs (Monterey Bay Community Power for the portion of the County in PG&E territory and Los Angeles Community Choice Energy for the portion within SCE territory). City Staff have been in communication with the County of Santa Barbara staff leading the Tri- County effort. Dependent upon the results of the new feasibility study there may be an opportunity for the City of San Luis Obispo and other local jurisdictions to join with Santa Barbara to form a Joint Powers Authority for a CCE program. Upon direction from the City Council, staff can continue to work with County of Santa Barbara staff to monitor the feasibility study and discuss the City’s involvement. 2. Intra-County Feasibility Study While the Tri-County Feasibility Study was underway, the City of San Luis Obispo worked in parallel to analyze the feasibility of an intra-county CCE. On July 14, 2015 the City of San Luis Obispo invited the County of San Luis Obispo to participate in an intra-county “initial feasibility study” for a CCE program within the County of San Luis Obispo. Each of the other six incorporated cities in the county were invited to participate, but none chose to do so. The initial feasibility study was offered at no cost and has been completed by Pilot Power Group using an analysis of regional energy use data from PG&E. The final report is provided as Attachment F. The initial feasibility study provides a high-level assessment of the likelihood that a new CCE program in San Luis Obispo would be able to maintain rate competitiveness and generate revenue in excess of program costs. The study includes three geographic participation options (County of San Luis Obispo only, City of San Luis Obispo only, and combined County and City of San Luis Obispo) and two scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes the CCE program would operate with the minimum amount of renewable energy needed to remain compliant with state requirements – essentially the CCE would have the same renewable portfolio as PG&E in this scenario. Scenario 2 assumes the CCE program would include 50% renewable energy in its portfolio. In all three geographic participation options and both scenarios, the study finds with high probability that a new CCE program would be able to cover its costs, generate net revenue, and maintain rate competitiveness. A summary of the results of the study is provided in the table below. As an example, the table shows that a “City only” CCE (dark blue column) providing 50% renewable energy (Scenario 2) would have 65% probability of generating revenue in excess of expenditures in the first year of operation (2018). Based on the assumptions of the study, the Packet Pg 14 1 expected net revenue in year one would be $853,189. The simulations run as part of this study showed that 46.63% of the time, the model produced a net revenue amount that was equal to or exceeded the expected net revenue of $853,189. In concluding that conditions are favorable to create a CCE program in San Luis Obispo, the initial feasibility study findings generally confirm the findings of the MRW peer review of the Tri-County Feasibility Study, noted above, which are that a City only option or combination of jurisdictions with PG&E service area are likely financially viable. It is important to note, however, that given the pro bono nature of the initial feasibility study, and the associated limits on its scope, these findings should only be used to indicate initial feasibility. A more in-depth, full feasibility analysis is the next step to determine whether a City of San Luis Obispo led CCE is viable. As part of the Major City Goal, the 2017-2019 Financial Plan allocated $25,000 to pay for this type of analysis. Options for Council Consideration With the results of the Tri-County and Intra County feasibility studies described above, staff have included two basic options for the City to pursue Community Choice Energy, as provided below. 1. Form a New CCE Program Pros: Local control, may include multiple local jurisdictions in our efforts. Cons: Slower (1 to 2 years), potential additional financial risk to the City, potentially more expensive and resource intensive. There are a number of options for forming a new CCE program which , if feasible, could include: a) the City working to form a local CCE program that only includes the City of San Luis Obispo; b) the City taking the lead and working with other jurisdictions to establish a larger CCE program operating together as a joint powers authority; and/or, c) the City continuing to monitor the Tri-County effort and possibly join Santa Barbara to establish a larger CCE program. Packet Pg 15 1 Generally, the next step for options a and b, above, would include staff preparing a Request for Proposals (RFP) to obtain, at a minimum, a consultant to assist in preparation of a full feasibility study to provide a complete assessment of the viability of a CCE program. A full feasibility study for the City of San Luis Obispo (and potentially including other jurisdictions) appears to be a viable option based on the results of the Intra-County initial feasibility study which indicates potential feasibility across all studied scenarios, as described above. Cost Examples Redwood Coast Energy Authority Example. Initial financial and startup costs can be significant. Recently, new methods have emerged such as the approach used by Redwood Coast Energy Authority (currently operational CCE) to finance a new CCE program. Their approach included putting out an RFP in search of an entity, or group of entities, to provide comprehensive services to support the development, financing, launch and operations of a CCE program with n o upfront costs paid by Redwood Coast Energy Authority (RCEA). In this approach, the successful bidder undertakes the development and launch of the program at their own risk and would receive on- going operations fees after and contingent on the successful launch of the CCE program. If the City undertook this approach it would essentially mean no costs would be borne by the City until revenues from the operating CCE program are received. California Choice Energy Authority Example. Another example of an initial financing approach is the method proposed by the California Choice Energy Authority – a Joint Powers Authority (JPA) of the City of Lancaster and the City of San Jacinto which is governed by the Lancaster City Council with each City joining as an associate member of the JPA. CCEA offers initial support (as well as continued support) for starting a new CCE. Note: their experience is in Southern California Edison territory. CCEA offers their services (including use of their contracted consultants) to help jurisdictions assess feasibility, prepare an implementation plan for submittal to the California Public Utilities Commission and administrative support to manage these efforts for a cost of $63,000. The City has currently budgeted $25,000 to support initial efforts associated with establishing a CCE. In addition to initial financing, CCEA has a hybrid approach to implementation where jurisdictions join CCEA to group together and share operational expenses and leverage economies of scale to help keep costs down, such as the cost of power purchasing, but individual jurisdictions still operate their own local CCE (i.e. share operational expenses but still keep local control of CCE revenues). If directed to “form a new CCE” staff will explore this approach further, however, two initial concerns include 1) CCEA operates in SCE territory and doesn’t have experience in PG&E territory, and 2) lack of control and the ability to decide key policy decisions which under CCEA are currently solely governed by the City of Lancaster’s City Council. 2. Join an Existing Program Pros: fast (as soon as early 2019), cost effective, low risk to the City. Cons: less control – City would be one of several votes on the JPA. Packet Pg 16 1 Monterey Bay Community Power The Tri-County Feasibility Study and the Intra-County Study did not consider the viability of joining an existing CCE program, which is a potential option for the City. For a list and details of operational and in-development CCE’s, see Attachment D. Of the in-development CCE’s, Monterey Bay Community Power (MBCP) is the only one within PG&E service territory and the City could pursue joining this effort, or other CCE programs accepting new jurisdictions. MBCP begins serving customers in 2018 and currently consists of a Joint Powers Authority between the Counties of Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Benito. MBCP has already obtained all the financing and funding needed to operate and is projecting approximately $39 million in net revenue in its first year of operation (2018, partial year), and approximately $40-50 million in net revenue in its first full year of operation (2019). The agency has discretion to set its rates to be identical to PG&E rates with customer credits issued annually or quarterly depending upon customer class, and their standard electricity portfolio is 100% carbon free by purchasing from hydroelectricity sources. Staff have been in preliminary discussion with the Chief Executive Officer of MBCP who has expressed interest in the City of San Luis Obispo joining MBCP. The cost to join would be approximately $25,000 to $50,000 to cover consultant costs associated with amending MBCP’s Implementation Plan and resubmittal to the California Public Utilities Commission for re- certification. Other Existing Programs While MBCP is the only option currently available for the City to join with an existing CCE in PG&E service territory, several other CCE’s exist. As previously mentioned, the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors recently directed its staff to look into Los Angeles Community Choice Energy; however, that direction was only for its southern portion that is in SCE territory. Staff can continue to monitor options available for joining a CCE located outside of PG&E territory, but there are no clear options currentl y available to join. 3. Discontinue/Pause Pursuit of a CCE Pros: Potential for new, better, CCE model to emerge. Cons: Lose greenhouse gas emission reduction potential and economic benefit of CCE, rapidly changing regulatory environment may preclude future options. The electricity market and policy environment are rapidly transforming. While CCE programs have enjoyed tremendous growth over the past couple of years, both in terms of the number of programs and expansions of existing programs to serve more customers, the IOUs (e.g. PG&E) have had time to adjust to a more competitive market in a way that poses a greater risk to new CCE program formation. In addition, significant regulatory and potential legislative changes are possible in the next couple of years for CCE programs. Two bills were being proposed during the last legislative session that would have effectively stopped the formation of new CCE programs, and similar bills may be proposed in the near future. Packet Pg 17 1 The City Council could choose to discontinue or pause pursuit of a CCE program at this time to wait and see what happens with the market. However, the City may lose the opportunity of Community Choice Energy based on shifts at the regulatory level. If the City lost the opportunity to participate in a CCE, it might be difficult to achieve established net carbon community goals. This option is not recommended since options exist that may reduce the City’s upfront risk and costs of launching a CCE program. COMPARISON OF CCE OPTIONS Speed Cost Risk Local Control Regionalism 1 Form a New CCE Program City of SLO Only Med Low-High Med/Hig h High Low City of SLO + other Jurisdictions Med Low/Med Med Med Med Monitor/Join Tri-County Effort2 Slow Med Med Med High Join an Existing Program Fast Low Low Low Low Discontinue or Pause Pursuit n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 A regional approach (multiple jurisdictions) to reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in San Luis Obispo 2 At this time the results of the new study are unknown QUESTIONS FOR COUNCIL CONSIDERATION AND DIRECTION Staff has provided the following focused questions to facilitate City Council direction to help guide the City Council in their deliberations. Questions for City Council direction Yes No A. Pursuit of Community Choice Energy (CCE) 1. Continue pursuit of CCE 2. Pause pursuit of CCE 3. Discontinue pursuit of CCE B. Form a new Community Choice Energy program? 1. City of San Luis Obispo Only? 2. City of San Luis Obispo and pursue other jurisdictions? 3. Continue to monitor the tri-county effort and possibly join Santa Barbara? C. Join an Existing Program? 1. Monterey Bay Community Power or research additional alternatives outside of PG&E service territory? Packet Pg 18 1 Questions for City Council direction D. Evaluation Factors 1. What criterion or set of criteria should be prioritized in evaluating CCE options? a. Renewable portfolio b. Pricing c. Governance (i.e. local control vs. ease/cost of administration) d. Risk tolerance e. Other Should the City Council direct staff to continue pursuit of Community Choice Energy staff has provided a summary of next steps by option below: 1. Option B.1 (City of SLO Only): If chosen, staff will prepare a Request for Proposal (RFP) and seek consultant(s) qualified to move us forward with Community Choice Energy. Based on existing limited staff resources and funding, staff would seek consultants who can provide comprehensive services to support development, financing, launch and operation of a CCE program similar to the Redwood Coast Energy Authority model described above. The RFP will be reviewed by the City Council for approval prior to issuance. 2. Option B.2 (City of SLO + other Jurisdictions): If chosen, staff will reach out to other jurisdictions within San Luis Obispo County as well as jurisdictions in Santa Barbara County that are within PG&E service territory (e.g. Santa Maria) to assess and encourage interest in joining the City. Then staff will prepare an RFP as discussed in option #1 above. 3. Option B.3 (Monitor and Possibly Join Santa Barbara): Note: this option could be combined with options B.1 and 2 above. If chosen, staff would continue to monitor the Tri-County effort and see what options exist for the City to join Santa Barbara should the new review find feasibility. 4. Option C (Join an Existing Program): If chosen, staff will continue discussions with Monterey Bay Community Power and search out opportunities to join other similar programs by issuing a Request for Information to see if other CCE programs are interested in allowing the City to join. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW Direction from the City Council regarding Community Choice Energy does not constitute a project subject to environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) pursuant to CEQA Guidelines Section 15262, as the actions involve only feasibility or planning studies for possible future actions which the Council has not approved, adopted, or funded and does not have a legally binding effect on later activities. Packet Pg 19 1 FISCAL IMPACT The City Council has budgeted $25,000 for pursuit of Community Choice Energy through the Climate Action Major City Goal work program. Fiscal impact will be researched in detail and determined dependent upon Council direction. ALTERNATIVES The City Council could choose no options and elect to suspend all efforts to pursue a CCE. This alternative is not recommended as CCE’s have shown promise in both reducing energy costs and providing greater renewable energy options to help jurisdictions meet GHG reduction goals. Attachments: a - Glossary of Terms b - December 2013 Council Agenda Report - March 2015 Council Agenda Report - March 2015 Council Resolution c - County of Santa Barbara Staff Report to Board of Supervisors October 3, 2017 d - Matrix Comparing CCE Programs e - Tri-County Feasibility Study (Executive Summary) f - Intra-County Initial Feasibility Study g - Council Reading File - Full Tri-County Feasibility Study Packet Pg 20 1 24 October 20, 2017 Glossary of Terms aMW: Average annual Megawatt. A unit of energy output over a year that is equal to the energy produced by the continuous operation of one megawatt of capacity over a period of time (8,760 megawatt-hours). Basis Difference (Natural Gas): The difference between the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub natural gas distribution point in Erath, Louisiana, which serves as a centr al pricing point for natural gas futures, and the natural gas price at another hub location (such as for Southern California). Buckets: Buckets 1-3 refer to different types of renewable energy contracts according to the Renewable Portfolio Standards requirements. Bucket 1 are traditional contracts for delivery of electricity directly from a generator within or immediately connected to California. These are the most valuable and make up the majority of the RECS that are required for LSEs to be RPS compliant. Buckets 2 and 3 have different levels of intermediation between the generation and delivery of the energy from the generating resources. Bundled Customers: Electricity customers who receive all their services (transmission, distribution and supply) from the Investor-Owned Utility. CAISO: The California Independent System Operator. The organization is responsible for managing the electricity grid and system reliability within the former service territories of the three California IOUs. California Energy Commission (CEC): The state regulatory agency with primary responsibility for enforcing the Renewable Portfolio Standards law as well as a number of other, electric -industry related rules and policies. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC): The state agency with primary responsibility for regulating IOUs, as well as Direct Access (ESP) and CCE entities. Capacity Factor: the ratio of an electricity generating resource’s actual output over a period of time to its potential output if it were possible to operate at full nameplate capacity continuously over the same period. Intermittent renewable resources, like wind and solar, typically have lower capacity factors than traditional fossil fuel plants because the wind and sun do not blow or shine consistently. Category 1: renewable energy and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC’s) from an RPS eligible facility that is directly interconnected to the distribution or transmission grid within California Category 2: renewable energy and REC’s from an RPS eligible facility but cannot be delivered to a California balancing authority without substituting electricity from another source. Category 3: procurement of unbundled RECs only or not meeting the conditions of Cat egory 1 and 2. Category 2 Override: the pro forma model will exchange Category 2 renewables for Category 1 renewables. Climate Zone: A geographic area with distinct climate patterns necessitating varied energy demands for heating and cooling. Coincident Peak: Demand for electricity among a group of customers that coincides with peak total demand on the system. Community Choice Aggregation: Method available through California law to allow Cities and Counties to aggregate their citizens and become their electric generation provider. Packet Pg 21 1 25 October 20, 2017 Community Choice Energy: A City, County or Joint Powers Agency procuring wholesale power to supply to retail customers. Congestion Revenue Rights (CRRs): Financial rights that are allocated to Load Serving Entities to offset differences between the prices where their generation is located and the price that they pay to serve their load. These rights may also be bought and sold through an auction process. CRRs are part of the CAISO market design. Consumption: The use of energy or the amount of energy consumed by an individual or organization. Demand Response (DR): Electric customers who have a contract to modify their electricity usage in response to requests from a utility or other electric entity. Typically, will be used to lowe r demand during peak energy periods, but may be used to raise demand during periods of excess supply. Direct Access: Large power consumers which have opted to procure their wholesale supply independently of the IOUs through an Electricity Service Provider. DWR Bond Charge: an imposed bond charge to recover Department of Water Resources (DWR) bond costs from bundled customers. EEI (Edison Electric Institute) Agreement: A commonly used enabling agreement for transacting in wholesale power markets. Electric Service Providers (ESP): An alternative to traditional utilities. They provide electric services to retail customers in electricity markets that have opened their retail electricity markets to competition. In California the Direct Access program allows large electricity customers to optout of utility-supplied power in favor of ESP-provided power. However, there is a cap on the amount of Direct Access load permitted in the state. Electric Tariffs: The rates and terms applied to customers by electric utilities. Typically have different tariffs for different classes of customers and possibly for different supply mixes. Enterprise Model: When a City or County establish a CCE by themselves as an enterprise within the municipal government. Federal Tax Incentives: There are two Federal tax incentive programs. The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) provides payments to solar generators. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) provides payments to wind generators. Feed-in Tariff: A tariff that specifies what generators, who are connected to the distribution system, are paid. Forward Prices: Prices for contracts that specify a future delivery date for a commodity or other security. There are active, liquid forward markets for electricity to be delivered at a number of Western electricity trading hubs, including NP15 which corresponds closely to the price location which the City of Davis will pay to supply its load. Implied Heat Rate: A calculation of the day-ahead electric price divided by the day-ahead natural gas price. Implied heat rate is also known as the ‘break-even natural gas market heat rate, because only a natural gas generator with an operating heat rate (measure of unit efficiency) below the implied heat rate value can make money by burning natural gas to generate power. Natural gas plants with a higher operating heat rate cannot make money at the prevailing electricity and natural gas prices. Integrated Resource Plan: A utility's plan for future generation supply needs. Investor-Owned Utility: For profit regulated utilities. Within California there are three IOUs - Packet Pg 22 1 26 October 20, 2017 Pacific Gas and Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric. ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association): Popular form of bilateral contract to facilitate wholesale electricity trading. Joint Powers Agency (JPA): A legal entity comprising two or more public entities. The JPA provides a separation of financial and legal responsib ility from its member entities. Load Data: Detailed information related to energy consumption by an individual, organization, or community. Load Forecast: A forecast of expected load over some future time horizon. Short-term load forecasts are used to determine what supply sources are needed. Longer-term load forecasts are used for budgeting and long-term resource planning. Marginal Unit: An additional unit of power generation to what is currently being produced. At and electric power plant, the cost to produce a marginal unit is used to determine the cost of increasing power generation at that source. MRTU: CAISO's Market Redesign and Technology Upgrade. The redesigned, nodal (as opposed to zonal) market that went live in April of 2009. Net Energy Metering: The program and rates that pertain to electricity customers who also generate electricity, typically from rooftop solar panels. Non-Coincident Peak: Energy demand by a customer during periods that do not coincide with maximum total system load. Non-Renewable Power: Electricity generated from non-renewable sources or that does not come with a Renewable Energy Credit (REC). NP15: Refers to a wholesale electricity pricing hub - North of Path 15 - which roughly corresponds to PG&E's service territory. Forward and Day-Ahead power contracts for Northern California typically provide for delivery at NP15. It is not a single location, but an aggregate based on the locations of all the generators in the region. Off Peak: time when demand for electricity is low between the hours of 11:00 pm to 6:59 am during the week days and 24 hours during the weekends. On-Bill Repayment (OBR): Allows electric customers to pay for financed improvements such as energy efficiency measures through monthly payments on their electricity bills. On-Peak: time when demand for electricity is high between the hours 7:00 am and 10:59 pm during the weekdays. Operate on the Margin: Operation of a business or resource at the limit of where it is profitable. Opt-Out: Community Choice Aggregation is, by law, an opt-out program. Customers within the borders of a CCE are automatically enrolled within the CCE unless they proactively opt-out of the program. Power Charge Indifference Adjustment (PCIA): A charge applied to customers who leave IOU service to become Direct Access or CCE customers. The charge is meant to compensate the IOU for costs that it has previously incurred to serve those customers. PPA (Power Purchase Agreement): The standard term for bilateral supply contracts in the electricity industry. Rate Stabilization Fund: an amount allocated into a reserve fund to be utilized to offset higher potential higher rates during rate setting. Renewable Energy Credits (RECs): The renewable attributes from RPS-qualified resources which must be registered and retired to comply with RPS standards. Packet Pg 23 1 27 October 20, 2017 Resource Adequacy (RA): The requirement that a Load-Serving Entity own or procure sufficient generating capacity to meet its peak load plus a contingency amount (15 percent in California) for each month. RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standards): The state-based requirement to procure a certain percentage of load from RPS-certified renewable resources. Scheduling Coordinator: An entity that is approved to interact directly with CAISO to schedule load and generation. All CAISO participants must be or have an SC. Scheduling Agent: A person or service that forecasts and monitors short term system load requirements and meets these demands by scheduling power resource to meet that demand. Spark Spread: The theoretical grow margin of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, having bought the fuel required to produce this unit of electricity. All other costs (capital, operation and maintenance, etc.) must be covered from the spark spread. Supply Stack: Refers to the generators within a region, stacked up according to their marginal cost to supply energy. Renewables are on the bottom of the stack and peaking gas generators on the top. Used to provide insights into how the price of electricity is likely to change as the load changes. Total CAISO Load: the total electricity need to procure from the CAISO taking in consideration for line losses. Line losses is wasted electric energy due to inherent inefficiencies or defects in the distribution or transmission system. Total Retail Load: the total electricity consumed by consumers (residential and commercial) in a given period. Uncollected Factor: a model parameter allocating a percentage of revenue as uncollectable, otherwise considered bad debt. Weather-Adjusted: Normalizing energy use data based on differences in the weather during the time of use. For instance, energy use is expected to be higher on extremely hot days when air conditioning is in higher demand than on days with comfortable temperature. Weather adjustment normalizes for this variation. Wholesale Power: Large amounts of electricity that are bought and sold by utilities and other electric companies in bulk at specific trading hubs. Quantities are measured in MWs, and a standard wholesale contract is for 25 MW for a month during heavy-load or peak hours (7am to 10 pm, Mon-Sat), or light-load or off-peak hours (all the other hours). Packet Pg 24 1 RESOLUTION NO. 10609 (2015 Series) A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO, CALIFORNIA, CONFIRMING CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO PARTICIPATION IN THE EXPLORATION OF COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION (CCA) WHEREAS, the San Luis Obispo City Council is committed to supporting actions that promote local economic benefit and job creation; and WHEREAS, the San Luis Obispo City Council is committed to promoting choice and competition for the benefit of its residents and businesses; and WHEREAS, the San Luis Obispo City Council is committed to increasing energy efficiency, and to supporting more broad availability and use of local renewable power sources; and WHEREAS, Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) is a program through which an energy district, represented by participating local governments within its jurisdiction, purchases electrical power on behalf of its residential and commercial customers; and WHEREAS, the electric distribution utility is an important partner, responsible for reliable delivery of power and enhancement and maintenance of grid infrastructure; and WHEREAS, Community Choice Aggregation, if determined to be technically and financially feasible, could provide substantial economic and environmental benefits to all residents and businesses in the City of San Luis Obispo; and WHEREAS, Community Choice Aggregation provides the opportunity to fund and implement a wide variety of energy related programs of interest to the community; and WHEREAS, it is intended for the CCA Exploration Advisory Committee (CEAC), to be an advisory group comprised of local agency staff, local elected officials or their designees, and members of the public with expertise in energy, finance, law and /or any other pertinent skills; with the charge to develop CCA feasibility information and to advise the San Luis Obispo City Council and participating local agencies; and WHEREAS, the City of San Luis Obispo's adopted Climate Action Plan states that the City shall evaluate the feasibility of a regional Community Choice Aggregation program to procure electricity from renewable resources. NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the San Luis Obispo City Council that: 1. The San Luis Obispo City Council agrees to participate in an inter - jurisdictional investigation into the feasibility of Community Choice Aggregation (CCA), through a CCA Exploration Advisory Committee R 10609 Packet Pg 25 1 Resolution No. 10609 (2015 Series) Page 2 CEAC), supported by SLO Clean Energy, California Clean Power, or similar entity, to guide preparation of feasibility information without obligation of the expenditure of General Funds unless separately authorized in a future action by the San Luis Obispo City Council. 2. The San Luis Obispo City Council will appoint at least one designee and an alternate to participate as a member of the CEAC. City staff is authorized to execute the appropriate documents to allow the city, CEAC, SLO Clean Energy, California Clean Power, or similar entity, and its technical consultants to acquire energy usage load data from the electric distribution utility so it may be analyzed as part of the exploration process. 4. Adoption of this resolution in no way binds or otherwise obligates the San Luis Obispo City Council to establish or participate in a Community Choice Aggregation program. Upon motion of Council Member Rivoire, seconded by Council Member Christianson, and on the following roll call vote: AYES: Council Members Carpenter, Christianson and Rivoire, Vice Mayor Ashbaugh and Mayor Marx NOES: None ABSENT: None The foregoing resolution was adopted this 31St day of March 2015. I- 2* a r Jan M rx ATTEST: cony ei, - City Clerk Packet Pg 26 1 Resolution No. 10609 (2015 Series) Page 3 APPROVED AS TO FORM: IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and affixed the official seal of the City of San Luis Obispo, California, this s day of i Packet Pg 27 1 THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Packet Pg 28 1 CityofSanLuisObispo, CouncilAgendaReport, MeetingDate, ItemNumber FROM: Michael Codron, Assistant City Manager SUBJECT: RESOLUTION SUPPORTING CITY PARTICIPATION IN THE EXPLORATION OF COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION ( CCA), TOGETHER WITH OTHER JURISDICTIONS IN THE REGION. RECOMMENDATION Adopt a resolution in support of an inter-jurisdictional investigation into the feasibility of CCA and to communicate this support to the County Board of Supervisors and the other cities in the County. There is no obligation to expend City funds or commitment to establish or participate in a potential future CCA program. DISCUSSION Background In December 2013 City staff presented the City Council with a detailed report to educate the Council and community about CCA, and identify options available to the City to participate in an exploration of the feasibility of such a program in the region (Attachment 1, 12-3-13 Council Agenda Report).1 At this meeting, the Council stopped short of officially endorsing CCA exploration (because no resolution of support was adopted), but a majority of the Council expressed sufficient interest that two exploratory steps were taken, as follows: 1. Council Member Christianson was appointed to be the City’s representative on a CCA Exploration Advisory Committee supported by SLO Clean Energy. Council Member Ashbaugh was selected to be the alternate; and 2. The City Manager was authorized to allow the release of City power usage data to facilitate the exploration of feasibility. Council Member Christianson was able to attend all of the meetings that occurred in 2014 and has now been replaced on the Committee by Council Member Rivoire. Current Request Following the 2014 meetings it has become clear that the next official step is for a lead agency to step forward and formally organize and fund a feasibility study. For this to happen, it would be helpful for interested jurisdictions to step forward and declare their support. The Cityof San Luis Obispo can express its support by passing a resolution similar to the one passed in 2014 by the City of Morro Bay. The proposed resolution has no funding or other resources attached to it, but is a clear indication of the City’s formal desire to participate in the exploration process if it moves forward (Attachment 2). 1 Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) essentially leverages the aggregate buying power of individual customers in a city or county to secure a different mix of energy sources than the standard investor-owned utility (PG&E). CCA is often used to secure contracts with energy providers that use alternative power sources such as solar or wind. 3/31/15 B3 B3-1Packet Pg 29 1 Community Choice Aggregation Resolution Page 2 The proposed action is consistent with the Climate Action Plan (CAP) adopted in August 2012. A specific implementation item in the CAP calls for the City to: “Evaluate the feasibility of a regional Community Choice Aggregation program to procure electricity from renewable resources.”2 The proposed action is one of many steps that the City can take to advance this action item. Furthermore, the City is a member of the Air Pollution Control District’s Greenhouse Gas Stakeholder Group, which supports a regional CCA feasibility study. Should the Council adopt the resolution and direct a letter to be sent to the County and other cities in the County, staff from Administration will craft that correspondence for the Mayor’s signature. Supporting Documentation and Resources In addition to the information included in Attachment 1, SLO Clean Energy has provided the following links for those that wish to research the issue more deeply: 1. Introduction to CCA by Geof Syphers, CEO of Sonoma Clean Power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pQLETdzcy4 (15 Minutes) 2. Recommendations on starting your own CCA from Geof Syphers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=queqJZUODB8 (22 Minutes) 3. Videos submitted by community choice leaders at a Business for Clean Energy Conference in Silicon Valley http://biz4cleanenergy.com/new-energy-choices-silicon- valley/ CONCURRENCES The Utilities Department concurs with information included in this report. FISCAL IMPACT There is no fiscal impact associated with passing a resolution expressing interest in exploring a CCA. It is likely that a funding request would be made to the City in the future, should another jurisdiction take the lead role in the feasibility analysis, however the City makes no commitments with respect to funding by passing the proposed resolution. ALTERNATIVES 1. Do not pass a resolution in support of CCA. This alternative is not recommended because the next steps in learning more about CCA require jurisdictions like the City of San Luis Obispo to formally express their interest so that a lead agency might step forward to facilitate the exploration process and feasibility study. 2. Continue consideration to a future meeting. The Council can continue consideration of the draft resolution if more information is needed. In this case, direction should be provided to staff to conduct additional research and return to the City Council at a future date. 2 City of San Luis Obispo. Climate Action Plan: Pg.: A-4. 2012 B3-2Packet Pg 30 1 Community Choice Aggregation Resolution Page 3 ATTACHMENTS 1. 12-3-13 Council Agenda Report with background information about CCA 2. Draft resolution expressing the City’s support for participation in an exploration of the feasibility of CCA B3-3Packet Pg 31 1 THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Packet Pg 32 1 ATTACHMENT 1 FROM: Carrie Mattingly, Utilities Director Prepared By: Ron Munds, Conservation Manager SUBJECT: COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION PROGRAMS (RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION CHOICES) RECOMMENDATION Receive information regarding Community Choice Aggregation Programs. DISCUSSION Background In response to Council direction, the following report gives an overview of Community Choice Aggregation (CCA). In 2002 the California Legislature passed Assembly Bill 117, which permitted the creation of CCA programs. Under the legislation, a city, county, or Joint Powers Authority, may implement a CCA program. A CCA entity is allowed to set rates for its customers and choose the form of energy generation, enabling communities to choose renewable energy sources rather than the local utility’s mix of energy sources. CCA essentially leverages the aggregate buying power of individual customers in a city or county. Once formed, individual customers within aCCA service area can opt out of the CCA and continue to receive power from the local (usually investor -owned) utility. Although a CCA contracts for its own energy supply mixes, the local utility continues to own the electricity distribution infrastructure and provide electricity transmission, distribution, billing, and related customer services. This means customers of a CCA continue to pay the same charges for the power transmission and distribution charges as customers that remain with the utility. The CCA entity must pay the local utility for services provided to the CCA (such asmeter reading and billing). In order to form a CCA, the law requires jurisdictions to submit an implementation plan to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that provides information on the proposed CCA’s organizational structure, rate setting procedures, and a description of the financial and technical capabilities of any third parties that will supply power to the CCA. AB 117 further stipulates that the CPUC shall ensure that no costs are shifted to the remaining customers of the incumbent utility as a result of the CCA customers’ departure from the electricity load served by the utility. The CPUC has instituted a Cost Responsibility Surcharge that CCAs must pay to incumbent utilities until shifted or “stranded” costs are paid off. The Cost Responsibility Surcharge potentially can affect the cost-competitiveness of CCAs because a high Cost Responsibility Surcharge must be recovered in the CCA’s rates. There is only one operating CCA in California, Marin Energy Authority; the rates in their service area are currently competitive with PG&E’s rates with some customers paying slightly less and others paying slightly more than PG&E customers. Meeting Date Item NumberDec. 3, 2013 SS1 B3-4Packet Pg 33 1 Community Choice Aggregation Page 2 Things to Consider – Potential Advantages of a CCA Program There are a number of potential benefits to having a public CCA entity provide electrical power rather than an investor owned utility: 1. Increased Renewable Energy Use: Because a CCA entity can select the type of power it provides to its customers, it can focus on carbon-free renewable power sources, and reduce its reliance on generation using fossil fuels such as gas or coal. 2. Local Economic Benefits: If the CCA entity were to focus on local renewable generation sources, the revenues for electrical service paid by residents in a region would remain in the area of benefit rather than be paid to the incumbent utility’s investors, thus potentially creating local jobs and improving the local economy. 3. Local Control: The governing board of the CCA entity would be comprised of local elected officials, so that residents could more easily influence decisions about the operation and priorities of the CCA entity. 4. Lower Financing costs: Because public entities are able to finance electrical generation facilities with tax-exempt bonds and do not have to pay dividends to shareholders, a public CCA program may, in the long run, be able to provide electrical power at a lower cost than an investor-owned utility. 5. Increased Customer Choice: A public CCA increases consumer choice, by giving customers an option of receiving power from the CCA entity or remaining with the incumbent utility. 6. Influence Conservation Programs: A public CCA could choose to undertake more aggressive energy conservation programs than the incumbent utility which would provide a community-wide benefit. 7. Implementation of City Policies: There are General Plan and Climate Action Plan policies that support use of renewable energy. 8. Provide for Small-Scale Renewables: A CCA can provide a market for small-scale renewable energy projects such as photovoltaics. Things to Consider – Potential Issues and Risks of a CCA Program The risks associated with CCA formation fall into two categories: Pre-formation risks and post- formation (operational) risks. Pre-formation Issues - Creating a CCA program will require a number of political, engineering, legal, and financial steps, including the development of a detailed implementation plan that must be submitted to and certified by the CPUC. The development work and the preparation of the implementation plan will require the hiring of expert consultants to perform necessary analysis including a feasibility study. B3-5Packet Pg 34 1 Community Choice Aggregation Page 3 The city received correspondence from the SLO Clean Energy coalition which indicated an opportunity to share costs for a regional CCA feasibility study between San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito Counties (Attachment, SLO Clean Energy Letter). The costs of the study and cost allocation are not detailed in the submitted letter although it states a CCA feasibility study can be over $200,000 for a single county. Other California counties have completed CCA feasibility studies, including Sonoma County which estimated the total start-up cost for a CCA in their county to be $1.7 million. Sonoma County’s study also indicates that $500,000 to $750,000 of the total cost may not be recoverable from CCA rates once in operation. The non-recoverable costs would include the feasibility study and the drafting and execution of the necessary formation related agreements ( such as a Joint Powers Agreement). Once the decision has been made to initiate a CCA program, the entity will then need to begin taking steps to commence operations. Depending on how the CCA elects to structure its program, additional funds will be needed to finance start-up costs which would include but not be limited to the following: 1. Recruit and hire staff 2. Develop information and outreach materials 3. Establish a customer call center for inquiries 4. Prepare short and long term load forecasts 5. Develop capability or negotiate contracts for operational services ( such as electronic data interchange with utility, customer bill calculations, schedule coordinator services, etc.) 6. Execute contracts for electric supply; identify generation projects and negotiate participation 7. Obtain financing for program capital requirements 8. Send customer notices and explain opt-out option 9. Submit notification of certification to the CPUC Post-formation Risks - The predominant cost of service variables and risks that might impact the CCA’s operational costs are: 1. The Cost Responsibility Surcharge (CRS) will vary year-to-year: The CRS is inversely related to the prevailing market price of electricity such that if market prices fall, the CRS will increase. To the extent the CRS increases and CCA program has locked in electricity prices through long-term contracts, the CCA customers’ total rates will increase. 2. Procurement Risks: This broad category of risks relates to the ability of a CCA to procure power at reasonable costs, to avoid significant under- or over-procurement, avoid a supplier’s ability to default on a supply contract at times when energy spot markets are high forcing the CCA to purchase expensive power, and the future success of the CCA at renewing power supply agreements. 3. Regulatory Risks: These risks consist of uncertainty in regulatory decisions by the California Public Utilities Commission that could adversely affect the costs that customers have to pay to take service from a CCA, such as exit fees paid by customers and bonding requirements for the CCA. B3-6Packet Pg 35 1 Community Choice Aggregation Page 4 4. Policy Risks: While all CCA members have a voice on a governing Board, no single city can control policy. Thus, due to the differing demographic, economic, and business composition relative to a regional body, the City might find that the interests of its citizens and businesses are not well served by decisions of the governing Board. 5. Customer Cost Risks: These risks consist of the uncertainty in exit fees, whether the CCA can continue to “meet or beat” PG&E’s costs of service, how a CCA will handle adding different types of customers in the future, and the uncertainty in costs that are passed through directly from the CCA’s power supplier to customers. This also includes the risk that the CCA may not be willing, or able, to provide low-income customers rates that will be no higher than PG&E’s. Community Choice Aggregation Programs in California CCA Programs have been authorized in California since 2003. The only CCA program currently operating in California was created in Marin County and began serving customers in May 2010. However, there are multiple other cities or counties exploring the feasibility and program requirements of establishing a CCA. The following is a summary and status of programs in California: Entity Status Milestones Additional Information Marin Energy Authority Operating Only operational CCA in California marinenergyauthority.com Sonoma Clean Power Initiating Projected to begin service in January 2014 www.scwa.ca.gov/cca/ Clean Power SF Initiating Working to finalize implementation plan cleanpowersf.org Monterey/Santa Cruz/ San Bonito Counties Investigating Counties and interested cities pass resolution of participation in May 2013 montereybaycca.org Yolo County/City of Davis Investigating Early stages of investigation City- council.cityofdavis.org San Diego County Very Early Stages of Investigation Exploring funding sources and other organizational issues sandiegoenergydistrict.org This is not an all-inclusive list; there may be other cities and/or counties investigating the formation of a CCA. Next Steps Should Council be interested in further exploring the formation of a CCA or expressing its support for such a venture, more fully understanding the exact cost of participating in a feasibility study and funding sources for such a study will be important. Some other items for consideration would be B3-7Packet Pg 36 1 Community Choice Aggregation Page 5 any electricity data access restrictions, collective community support for CCA formation, the current energy mix of PG&E, and a broader study of the successes/challenges experienced by other cities and/or counties who are doing this or attempted such an action. Exploration of the formation of a CCA is not currently on the work program of any city department. Undertaking such exploration would require a very significant commitment of interdepartmental staff resources and financial resources, not currently contemplated or budgeted. Thus, if the Council is interested in further studying the formation of a CCA, staff would recommend that Council consider options and priorities in the context of the City’s existing budget processes, whereby current Major city goal and work program impacts, workload re-prioritizations, and/or additional staff and financial resource needs can be evaluated in a comprehensive way. CONCURRENCES The Community Development Department concurs with the information provided in this report. FISCAL IMPACT The material provided in this report has been presented for information purposes therefore there is no fiscal impact associated with this report. ATTACHMENT 1. SLO Clean Energy Letter CCA (MattinglyMunds) B3-8Packet Pg 37 1 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS AGENDA LETTER Clerk of the Board of Supervisors 105 E. Anapamu Street, Suite 407 Santa Barbara, CA 93101 (805) 568-2240 Agenda Number: Department Name: Community Services Department Department No.: 057 For Agenda Of: October 3, 2017 Placement: Departmental Estimated Time: 2 hours 30 minutes Continued Item: No If Yes, date from: N/A Vote Required: Majority TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Department Director(s) George Chapjian, Community Services Director (805) 568-2467 Contact Info: Jen Cregar, Project Supervisor, Energy & Sustainability Initiatives (805) 568-3506 SUBJECT: Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results County Counsel Concurrence Auditor-Controller Concurrence As to form: Yes As to form: Yes Other Concurrence: Risk Management As to form: Yes Recommended Actions: That the Board of Supervisors: A. Receive and file a Technical Feasibility Study on Community Choice Aggregation for the Central Coast Region (Attachment A; report and study appendices also may be downloaded at http://www.centralcoastpower.org/resources.nrg); B. Receive and file a Comparison Matrix of Community Choice Energy Programs (Attachment C); C. Provide staff with direction regarding community choice energy options as follows: 1. Option 1. Join two existing CCE programs; 2. Option 2. Form a new CCE program; 3. Option 3. Not implement a CCE program at this time and continue to explore additional CCE-related options for later consideration; or 4. Option 4. Not implement a CCE program at this time and discontinue the County’s evaluation of CCE.; and Packet Pg 38 1 Page 2 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 D. Determine that the above recommended actions do not constitute a project subject to environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) pursuant to CEQA Guidelines Section 15262, as the actions involve only feasibility or planning studies for possible future actions which the Board has not approved, adopted, or funded and does not have a legally binding effect on later activities, and direct staff to file a Notice of Exemption (NOE) (Attachment B); or E. Provide other direction to staff. Summary Text: Staff, in collaboration with ten other jurisdictions across the Tri-County Region, has been evaluating the feasibility of a regional community choice energy (CCE) program for Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura Counties. The County of Santa Barbara (“County”) commissioned a feasibility study (Attachment A) in 2016 to determine whether CCE is a good fit for Santa Barbara County and the Tri- County Region. The feasibility study and subsequent peer review suggest that a newly created regional CCE program spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura Counties is likely not a viable venture in terms of the CCE program’s ability to provide competitive rates and remain a solvent organization. The feasibility study similarly found that a stand-alone CCE program for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County also would not produce competitive rates or a long-term financially viable organization. The results of the peer review, however, indicate that it may be possible for a local or regional CCE program operating within Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) territory, including northern Santa Barbara County, to offer competitive rates while covering its costs. However, a jurisdiction that offers CCE service to one residential customer must offer CCE service to all residential customers. This means that the County cannot operate a CCE program solely within PG&E territory in the northern unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County. The County must also offer CCE service in the southern unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County, which is served by Southern California Edison (SCE), which has lower electricity generation rates than PG&E. The feasibility study and peer review indicate that a new regional CCE program, under the assumptions used in the feasibility study and peer review, is not likely to be able to offer competitive rates in SCE territory. Staff is requesting that the Board consider the following options and provide direction on how to proceed with CCE:  Option 1. Join two existing CCE programs;  Option 2. Form a new CCE program;  Option 3. Not implement a CCE program at this time and continue to explore additional CCE- related options for later consideration; or  Option 4. Not implement a CCE program at this time and discontinue the County’s evaluation of CCE. No additional funding or changes in staffing levels are requested at this time. Packet Pg 39 1 Page 3 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Background: About Community Choice Energy CCE, also known as community choice aggregation (CCA), enables local governments to leverage the purchasing power of their residents, businesses, and governments to purchase or generate power for their communities. When a CCE program is formed, the CCE provider purchases the electricity—which typically includes a higher percentage of electricity from renewable resources like wind and solar—and sets the rates charged to customers. The existing investor-owned utility (IOU)—in our region, PG&E and SCE—continues to deliver the electricity purchased by the CCE provider over the IOU’s power lines and provide metering, billing, and other customer service. Currently, there are nine CCE programs in operation throughout California: five in the San Francisco Bay Area, one in Humboldt County, and three in the Los Angeles area. The longest-standing CCE program is MCE Clean Energy, which began operations in Marin County in 2010 and has since grown to also include parts of Napa, Solano, and Contra Costa Counties. More than 20 jurisdictions are actively studying or developing CCE programs, with several programs expected to launch in 2018. Attachment C includes a matrix that compares a potential Central Coast Power regional CCE program with the nine operational CCE programs and three in-development CCE programs that would share some similarities to a regional Central Coast Power CCE program. All of the operational and in-development CCE programs conducted feasibility studies that suggested CCE could be economically viable for their communities. Board Action Related to CCE On May 5, 2015, the Board provided direction to staff to solicit participation from area local governments in a regional CCE feasibility study and to prepare information on the costs of CCE exploration. On June 9, 2015, the Board appropriated funds to the Community Services Department to conduct the initial phase of evaluating the formation of a CCE program (“Phase 1”). Per Board direction, staff contacted all 27 eligible jurisdictions1 throughout the Tri-County Region in late 2015 to invite them to participate in a regional CCE feasibility study. Ten jurisdictions, plus the Community Environmental Council, joined the County to fund the study, the results of which are presented herein. Staff formed an Advisory Working Group, composed of the contributing counties and cities,2 to help guide and oversee the feasibility analysis, provide outreach support, and monitor policy and program developments related to CCE. The County, with input from the Advisory Working Group, commissioned Willdan Financial Services (“Willdan”) to complete the CCE feasibility study. The contract with Willdan was approved by the Board on May 10, 2016, and subsequently extended to allow for the completion of the study presented herein. The Advisory Working Group selected Willdan to conduct the study, in part, due to its commitment to providing an impartial assessment and willingness to forego future CCE work in the region so as to not bias the outcome of the study. Willdan has also completed similar feasibility studies for the Cities of Lancaster and San Diego. MRW and Associates (“MRW”), who was later hired to conduct a peer review of Willdan’s feasibility study, also has agreed to the same commitment to 1 Lompoc operates its own municipally owned electric utility and therefore is not eligible to participate in a CCE program. All other cities and counties in the Tri-County Region are included in the study. 2 For a list of Advisory Working Group members, visit http://centralcoastpower.org/about.nrg#leadership. Packet Pg 40 1 Page 4 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 impartiality and has performed similar CCE technical evaluations for other local governments, including Alameda County and the City of San Diego. Our regional CCE exploration effort is sometimes referred to as “Central Coast Power.” Staff, with input from the Advisory Working Group, created a website (www.CentralCoastPower.org) to share information about our local CCE progress. Feasibility Study Scope The feasibility study evaluates the feasibility of forming a new CCE program run by one or multiple local governments in the Tri-County Region. The study did not consider the viability of one or more jurisdictions joining an existing CCE program. The study assessed financial feasibility in terms of the ability of a local/regional CCE program to provide competitive electricity rates while meeting policy goals and covering substantial CCE program formation costs and ongoing operating expenses over an eleven-year study period (2020-2030). The Advisory Working Group selected eight participation scenarios to explore the feasibility of different sizes and configurations for the CCE program and the potential effects of customer demographics. The eight participation scenarios included in the study are: 1. All Tri-County Region, including all 27 eligible jurisdictions throughout San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties 2. Advisory Working Group Jurisdictions, including the 11 jurisdictions that funded the feasibility study 3. All San Luis Obispo County, including the unincorporated area of the county and its cities 4. Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County 5. All Santa Barbara County, including the unincorporated area of the county and its cities 6. Unincorporated Santa Barbara County 7. All Ventura County, including the unincorporated area of the county and its cities 8. City of Santa Barbara In addition to the eight participation scenarios, three renewable energy content scenarios were considered for each participation scenario: 1. Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Equivalent: This scenario assumes that the CCE program would offer its base electricity product to all customers starting at 33% renewable energy content in 2020 and ramping up to 50% renewable energy content by 2030 in alignment with the California RPS.3 2. Middle of the Road: This scenario assumes that the CCE program would offer its base electricity product to all customers using 50% renewable energy content for the entire study period. 3. Aggressive: This scenario assumes that the CCE program would offer its base electricity product to all customers using 75% renewable energy content for the entire study period. 3 http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/RPS_Homepage/ Packet Pg 41 1 Page 5 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 For each of the renewable energy content scenarios, 2% of customers were assumed to voluntarily opt up to a premium 100% renewable energy product. In total, 24 different scenarios were considered (8 participation x 3 renewable energy content scenarios). Twelve of the 24 scenarios include the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County. The results for the Advisory Working Group participation scenario under all three renewable energy content scenarios are presented in the body of the feasibility study report and in greater detail in Appendix D of the feasibility study report. Results for the remaining scenarios are included in Appendices C and E-J. Appendix E includes the results for the Unincorporated Santa Barbara County Scenario. The report and appendices are available at: http://www.centralcoastpower.org/resources.nrg. Feasibility Study Peer Review Evaluating the feasibility of CCE is a difficult, complex, and time-consuming exercise involving numerous variables and assumptions that are predicated on long-term forecasts of conditions and costs within a dynamic energy procurement and regulatory landscape. While the existence of nine CCE programs throughout California provides some verification of proof of concept, the procurement and management of energy by local governments remains a complicated and multi-faceted venture. Two IOUs currently serve Santa Barbara County: PG&E in North County and SCE in South County. While this split IOU situation does not apply to other local governments in the region, each of the eight participation scenarios that include the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County is affected by the presence of both IOUs. There are no other operational CCE programs that span multiple utility service areas, and there is no way to offer a CCE program for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County without operating in both IOU territories. PG&E and SCE have differing rate structures and actual customer rates, which present some unique challenges to the CCE program that would need to be considered when setting electricity rates. In addition, a potential regional CCE program would be substantially larger in terms of customers served, the amount of electricity provided, and geographic reach than any of the existing CCE programs when they launched. While some of the existing CCE programs have grown over time, the absence of a similar sized start-up CCE model proved to be challenging when conducting a feasibility assessment for our region. Willdan completed its preliminary draft feasibility study in May 2017. Given the complexities described above, staff, with input from the Advisory Working Group, took the additional prudent steps of (1) contacting existing CCE program staff to gather additional data related to the costs of operating a CCE program and (2) commissioning MRW to conduct a third-party review of the Willdan draft study. The purpose of the peer review was to evaluate the assumptions and conclusions of the Willdan draft study. MRW suggested several revisions to the Willdan draft study and the pro forma upon which the financial assessment was built to, in the opinion of MRW, improve the reasonableness and efficacy of the assumptions that underpinned the Willdan draft feasibility study. MRW’s findings and recommendations along with Willdan’s response to the MRW analysis are included in Appendix L of the feasibility study report. Packet Pg 42 1 Page 6 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Three variables had the largest influence on the Willdan feasibility study and MRW peer review: 1. Cost of Renewable Energy: To forecast renewable energy costs, Willdan relied on the average prices that PG&E & SCE have paid for renewable energy to comply with the State RPS. Some of this pricing is based on long-term contracts that the IOUs executed more than a decade ago. By contrast, MRW relied on renewable energy prices from contracts executed in 2016, which it believes is more reflective of the marketplace in which the CCE program would procure renewable energy. MRW’s assumed renewable energy costs were approximately 30 perc ent lower than those assumed by Willdan and in line with pricing reported by operational CCE programs. Willdan also did some sensitivity testing of lower renewable energy prices. 2. Escalation of PG&E and SCE Rates: Electricity rates include two primary components: the charges assessed for the cost of (1) the electricity provided to the customer (“generation charge”) and (2) the delivery of the electricity over the IOUs’ power lines and related infrastructure (“delivery charge”). The delivery charge is the same for CCE and non-CCE customers; whereas, the generation charge can vary between IOUs and CCE providers. Therefore, the rate competitiveness of a CCE program is dependent, in part, on the behavior of future PG&E and SCE generation rates against which the CCE generation rates must compete. Willdan and MRW take different approaches in forecasting future IOU generation rates. Willdan adjusts PG&E’s and SCE’s rates by 0% – 0.5% annually based on current IOU rates that have already been approved by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and market prices for renewable energy. By contrast, MRW, citing pending rate cases before the CPUC and accounting for factors other than renewable energy prices, forecasts more robust growth rates for the IOUs’ generation rates over the study period. 3. Financing: Willdan assumed that the CCE program’s start-up costs (e.g., staff, office, and consultant costs prior to program launch); working capital equal to five months of operating expenses; and contributions to a rate stabilization and contingency fund would be financed through a 30-year bond issuance. According to Willdan, the sheer size of a potential CCE program serving the Tri-County Region precludes the cost-effective use of other, more traditional financing models (e.g., General Fund or bank loans) commonly used by smaller existing CCE programs. MRW noted the use of long-term bond financing was unusual and the amount financed was high relative to other CCE programs. MRW suggested that it is atypical to include a fully funded rate stabilization/contingency fund in initial financing. MRW also highlighted the more common practice by other CCE programs to finance three—rather than five—months of working capital. Although not as large of a driver of the feasibility outcome as the items cited above, the Power Cost Indifference Adjustment (PCIA) exit fee charged to CCE customers by the IOUs affects the competitiveness of the CCE program’s rates relative to the IOUs’ rates.4 The PCIA fluctuates based on 4 The PCIA is designed to keep remaining IOU customers who do not join a CCE program from having to bear the sunk cost of contracts the IOUs already signed for customers who no longer will receive electricity bought for them by the IOUs. The PCIA is intended to not penalize (or reward) remaining IOU customers when CCE customers depart. However, it puts CCE rates at a disadvantage due to the added charge. Both IOUs and the CCE providers are unhappy with the current PCIA model, which is under review by the CPUC as part of R.17-06-026 to Review, Revise and Consider Alternatives to the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment. Packet Pg 43 1 Page 7 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 current renewable energy market prices and is in part based on confidential pricing paid by the IOUs for historical power purchases. The market fluctuations and confidential nature of the data make it hard for CCE programs to predict the impact of the PCIA on CCE rate competitiveness year to year. Feasibility Study Findings CCE program feasibility is typically assessed based on (1) the competitiveness of CCE rates against the existing IOU rates and (2) the long-term financial viability of the enterprise. According to Willdan’s analysis, none of the 24 scenarios studied—including the County operating its own CCE program in the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County—shows a feasible outcome, meaning the CCE rates were higher than PG&E and/or SCE rates, and the CCE program is predicted to have negative net margins in most study years (2020-2030). Given the underperformance of the CCE program in terms of being rate competitive, consistently having negative net margins, and failing to meet the target for working capital, the CCE program under the assumptions used in Willdan’s analysis is neither reliably solvent nor financially feasible. A summary of Willdan’s assessment of how electricity rates, the overall electricity bill, and greenhouse gas emissions would change for a typical residential customer under the CCE program or existing IOU for each of the 12 scenarios that include the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County is shown in Table 1 below. The rate comparison is for the generation component of the overall electricity rates only; the delivery rates would stay the same regardless of whether the customer is a CCE or non-CCE customer. For the Advisory Working Group Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario, a typical CCE residential customer in PG&E territory (northern Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties) would, on average, experience nearly 30% higher generation rates, resulting in an extra $16 charge on the customer’s monthly electricity bill. A CCE residential customer in SCE territory (southern Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties) would, on average, experience 50% higher generation rates, resulting in an extra $20 on its monthly bill. The rate and bill impact is even higher (more costly) under the Advisory Working Group Aggressive (75% Renewable) Scenario. Similarly, the rate and bill delta would be larger for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County for all three renewable energy content scenarios than for the equivalent Advisory Working Group scenarios. A CCE program serving solely the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County would see higher rates because it would have fewer customers over which to spread fixed costs for common CCE functions such as power procurement and scheduling, legal/regulatory support, and billing coordination with the IOUs, despite having somewhat lower expenses due to smaller staff size and lower power costs. While the CCE Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) and Aggressive (75% Renewable) Scenarios would lower greenhouse gas emissions relative to PG&E’s and SCE’s electricity portfolios, the RPS Equivalent Scenario would increase greenhouse gas emissions for all CCE participation scenarios. The emissions increase is because PG&E and SCE currently have more greenhouse gas-free renewable energy in their electricity supply portfolios than required by the State RPS, and based on renewable energy contracts already signed, the IOUs are expected to continue to exceed the RPS requirement until at least 2020. If the CCE program were to merely meet—rather than exceed—the RPS, the CCE program would create more greenhouse gas emissions than either IOU in 2020. Packet Pg 44 1 Page 8 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Table 1. Willdan Summary of Forecasted Outcomes for a Typical Residential Customer in 2020 Participation Scenario Included Jurisdictions Renewable Energy Content Pacific Gas & Electric Southern California Edison Proportional GHG Comparison Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) All Tri-County Region All San Luis Obispo County All Santa Barbara County All Ventura County RPS Equivalent 22% $11.25 41% $14.55 6% 50% 29% $14.62 51% $17.93 -9% 75% 43% $21.72 71% $25.05 -55% Advisory Working Group Jurisdictions San Luis Obispo County Santa Barbara County Carpinteria Santa Barbara Ventura County Camarillo Moorpark Ojai Simi Valley Thousand Oaks Ventura RPS Equivalent 22% $12.21 41% $16.08 6% 50% 29% $15.92 50% $19.79 -9% 75% 43% $23.68 70% $27.64 -55% All Santa Barbara County Buellton Carpinteria Goleta Guadalupe Santa Barbara Santa Maria Solvang Unincorporated Santa Barbara County RPS Equivalent 24% $11.15 45% $14.53 7% 50% 31% $14.27 55% $17.69 -9% 75% 45% $20.78 75% $24.22 -55% Unincorporated Santa Barbara County Unincorporated Santa Barbara County RPS Equivalent 26% $15.08 47% $19.29 7% 50% 33% $18.97 56% $23.23 -9% 75% 47% $27.11 76% $31.44 -54% In its peer review, MRW analyzed the feasibility of a CCE program under the Advisory Working Group Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario. MRW’s analysis generally assumed lower CCE program costs and higher IOU rates against which the CCE program would compete, resulting in MRW showing a smaller delta between the CCE and IOU rates (as compared to Willdan). For the Advisory Working Group Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario, MRW’s analysis shows the CCE program’s rates being higher than the weighted average of the IOUs’ rates for at least the first five or six years of the CCE program’s operation, as shown in Figure 2. Packet Pg 45 1 Page 9 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Figure 2. CCE versus Weighted Average IOU Rate Comparison, Advisory Working Group Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario Because of the complications of trying to set CCE rates that can compete in PG&E and SCE territory, MRW concludes—consistent with Willdan’s findings—that a regional CCE program is not likely to be able to offer rates that are competitive with SCE for CCE customers located in SCE territory. MRW suggests, however, that a CCE program may be able to offer competitive rates for CCE customers located in PG&E territory. To illustrate the potential rate competitiveness in PG&E territory, MRW did a rate comparison for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County. Figure 3 shows the CCE program’s expected rates (as shown by the stacked bar charts illustrating CCE costs) compared to the applicable IOU rates (blue line) for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County. After the first year, the CCE rates for the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County are projected to be generally comparable to the weighted average of the SCE and PG&E rates. This is because the unincorporated area of Santa Barbara County has more PG&E than SCE customers; the PG&E customers consume more electricity than the SCE customers; and PG&E’s generation rates are higher than SCE’s rates, meaning the CCE rates do not have to be as low to compete with PG&E versus SCE rates. Packet Pg 46 1 Page 10 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Figure 3. CCE versus Weighted Average IOU Rate Comparison, Unincorporated Santa Barbara County Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario Options for Board Consideration At best, the feasibility study and peer review results suggest a regional CCE program could offer customers electricity with a higher renewable energy content (at either 50% or 75%) than either PG&E (43%) or SCE (41%) are expected to offer in 2020, but at higher rates (29% to 70% higher according to Willdan). At worst, the CCE program could charge higher rates and dissolve within a matter of a few years due to an inability to cover costs and maintain adequate working capital. In short, the results of the feasibility study and peer review do not support the creation of a regional CCE program at this time due to the:  difficulty of maintaining rates that can be competitive, in particular with SCE’s low generation rates;  uncertainty of a shifting market and policy landscape, especially in light of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) open proceeding to consider modifications to the PCIA;5 and  IOUs’ historical trends of shifting generation-related costs to the fixed delivery charge paid by CCE and non-CCE customers, which makes it harder for CCE programs to compete with decreasing IOU generation rates.6 Thus, staff recommends the County not pursue a regional CCE program at this time. MRW’s peer review, however, preliminarily suggests that a CCE program may be able to offer competitive rates for CCE customers located in PG&E territory, including northern Santa Barbara 5 R.17-06-026, Rulemaking to Review, Revise and Consider Alternatives to the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment 6 Analysis conducted by Willdan shows that SCE’s delivery charge (which is the same for CCE and non -CCE customers) for residential customers from 2014 to 2017 has increased 89%, while the residential generation charge (against which CCE programs compete) has decreased 13%. Similar trends hold for non-residential customers. Although comparable data is not available to do as thorough of an analysis for PG&E, according to Willdan, statewide IOU rate trends suggest PG&E has also shifted costs from the generation charge, against which CCE programs compete, to the delivery charge paid by all customers. Lancaster Choice Energy also recently filed a protest with the CPUC because of its concerns about SCE’s generation and delivery charges and the impact on Lancaster Choice Energy’s customers. Packet Pg 47 1 Page 11 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 County. However, the statute that enables local governments to pursue CCE programs requires that a jurisdiction that offers CCE service to one residential customer must offer CCE service to all residential customers.7 This means that the County cannot operate a CCE program solely within PG&E territory in northern Santa Barbara County. The County must also offer CCE service in southern Santa Barbara County, which is served by SCE. Staff presents the following options for your Board’s consideration: Option 1. Join two existing CCE programs. The feasibility study and peer review did not consider the viability of the County joining an existing CCE program. County staff has spoken with staff at other operational and in-development CCE programs to gauge their interest in having Santa Barbara County join their programs. As mentioned previously, all existing CCE programs have experience with either PG&E or SCE, but not both. PG&E and SCE have different billing systems, rate structures, and approaches to coordinating with CCE programs. Therefore, it would be difficult for an existing CCE program operating (or soon to be operating) in a single IOU territory to absorb Santa Barbara County, spanning two IOUs. Furthermore, the existing CCAs that staff spoke with prefer to add local governments that are contiguous (or near contiguous) with their boundaries to maintain a cohesive community feel. With these constraints in mind, it may be possible for the County to join two CCE programs: potentially Monterey Bay Community Power (MBCP)8 for the northern unincorporated part of Santa Barbara County and, for the southern part, one of the in-development LA area CCE programs, such as Los Angeles Community Choice Energy (LACCE),9 South Bay Clean Power (SBCP),10 or California Choice Energy Authority (CCEA).11 Three of the programs (MBCP, LACCE, and CCEA) use a joint powers authority (JPA) structure; SBCP has not yet been created, and it is not clear if the program will launch. Both MBCP and LACCE plan to launch in early 2018. California Choice Energy Authority is operating and offers a new service model created by the City of Lancaster in which CCEA provides back-office functions, such as power procurement, billing coordination with SCE, and legal/regulatory support, for a fee to smaller stand-alone CCE programs. Each of the CCEA member CCE programs are responsible for their own rate-setting, marketing and outreach, program offerings, and financial and risk management. This fee-for-service model is similar to the “JPA of JPAs” model supported by SBCP. However, staff does not feel CCEA or related “JPA of JPA” models are a good fit for the County because the County would continue to be exposed to SCE’s low generation rates and the ongoing uncertainty of the PCIA and other market/regulatory factors. A significant complication with joining two existing CCE programs is that Public Utilities Code Section 366.2 (b) requires that a local government that offers CCE to its community must serve 100% of residential customers. While joining two CCE programs could serve all of the County’s residents, there may be questions about program timing, such as whether both CCE programs would be required to start serving all Santa Barbara County residents on the same day and how all residential customers would 7 Public Utilities Code Section 366.2 (b). http://codes.findlaw.com/ca/public-utilities-code/puc-sect-366-2.html. This equal service provision does not apply to non-residential customers. 8 http://montereybaycca.org/ 9 http://green.lacounty.gov/wps/portal/green/lacce 10 https://southbaycleanpower.org/ 11 https://californiachoiceenergyauthority.com/ Packet Pg 48 1 Page 12 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 continue to be offered a CCE choice if one or both programs are discontinued. Staff has spoken with CPUC staff, who have indicated a split-CCE approach like this would require further review with no guarantees that the CPUC would accept this approach. There is some precedent for how the CPUC may handle a split-IOU approach under a single CCE program, as Placer County is pursuing a phased launch across two IOU service areas: PG&E and Liberty Utilities.12 Further study would be needed to determine whether existing CCE programs would be willing and able to add the County and the logistical considerations and costs of joining an existing program(s). Joining other CCE programs would also likely mean joining existing JPAs, the structure and operating rules of which have already been established. Participating in such a JPA would limit the County’s control and decision-making authority related to, for example, rates and program design, but could reduce the County’s costs and risk exposure. Option 2. Form a new CCE program. Although staff does not recommend it based on the feasibility study and peer review results, the County could establish a new CCE program. There are two sub- options for consideration further described below.  Option 2a. Create a CCE program for the unincorporated parts of Santa Barbara County. If the County were to form a new CCE program serving only the unincorporated areas, the County would fund the CCE program using an enterprise fund and could house the program within an existing or new department or division. This would allow the County to retain more control over program design, costs, and rate-setting than forming a JPA, but it also would mean the County must fully fund the start-up program and carry all the risk. The County would still face the hurdle of rate-competitiveness in SCE territory and potentially PG&E territory. If market and policy dynamics change in the future in support of a regional CCE program, the County could later pursue a JPA structure to add other interested jurisdictions.  Option 2b. Create a CCE program with one or more jurisdictions. If your Board is interested in continuing to pursue a regional CCE program and other jurisdictions are also interested, a new JPA could be formed to administer the regional CCE program. Option 3. Not implement a CCE program at this time and continue to explore additional CCE- related options for later consideration. The electricity market and policy environment are rapidly transforming. While CCE programs have enjoyed tremendous growth over the past couple of years, both in terms of the number of programs and expansions of existing programs to serve more customers, the IOUs have had time to adjust to a more competitive market in a way that poses a greater risk to new CCE program formation. Similarly, the CPUC is grappling with how to manage the growth of CCE and level the playing field for all types of electricity providers. Significant regulatory and potential legislative changes are expected in the next couple of years for CCE programs. It may benefit the County to take a “wait and see” approach to let the market stabilize before further considering CCE. If your Board chooses not to proceed with CCE at this time, staff is prepared—with ongoing funding to be determined based on your direction for which option to pursue—to continue to work with the Advisory Working Group and others to pursue other local renewable energy generation (e.g., 12 The San Joaquin Valley Power Authority pursued CCE across two IOU territories in the mid-2000s, but ultimately the CCE program did not launch. Packet Pg 49 1 Page 13 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 aggregation of government accounts); green job creation; and greenhouse gas reduction strategies in support of the County’s economic and sustainability goals, including its commitment to reduce countywide greenhouse gas emissions to 15% below 2007 levels by 2020, as called for by the County’s Energy and Climate Action Plan. Staff can also further study different CCE options, such as limiting CCE service to residential and government customers or the CCE program providing electricity produced by its own renewable energy generation projects from the start. Staff could also pursue legislative options for allowing the County to offer a CCE program for a portion of the unincorporated county, for example, PG&E’s service area where CCE may be more financially feasible. Option 4. Not implement a CCE program at this time and discontinue the County’s evaluation of CCE. Your board may direct staff to discontinue implementation or further exploration of CCE. Table 2 summarizes the potential benefits and risks of each option. Table 2. Potential Benefits and Risks of CCE Options Options Benefits Risks 1. Join 2 Existing CCE Programs  May ameliorate the negative impact of SCE’s lower generation rates on CCE rates for North County  May be less time- consuming than creating a new program  May lower rates due to lower start-up and operational costs  May not require as large of a financial investment  May allow programs and electricity products to be better tailored to North and South County  Carries greater risk of CPUC rejecting program  May not find willing host for both parts of the county  Dilutes local control  May require more complex logistical coordination  May create customer/brand confusion Packet Pg 50 1 Page 14 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 Performance Measure: N/A Contract Renewals and Performance Outcomes: N/A Fiscal and Facilities Impacts: Budgeted: Yes Fiscal Analysis: The Board has authorized ongoing annual funding of $165,000 towards salaries and benefits expenses for CCE and related programs in the Energy and Sustainability Initiatives Division of the Community Services Department. In addition, in FY2015-16, the Board authorized $235,000 towards the costs of the Phase I CCE exploration, including the feasibility study presented today. Approximately $160,000 of the $235,000 remains. 2. Form a New CCE Program  Increases local control (especially Option 2a) and may increase accessibility of customers to decision- makers  Simplifies and streamlines decision-making process  (Option 2a) May be less time-consuming than forming a JPA  Increases County’s financial risk exposure  May increase rates and provide less financial stability due to smaller, less diverse customer base, reduced purchasing power, and possibly less advantageous credit terms  Presents fewer resources due to smaller size 3. Not implement a CCE program at this time and continue to explore additional CCE-related options for later consideration  May identify other more cost-effective options for achieving similar policy goals  May avoid significant market and policy risk and cost  May miss opportunity to offer CCE to community 4. Not implement a CCE program at this time and discontinue the County’s evaluation of CCE.  May avoid significant market and policy risk and cost  Can reallocate funding to other policy priorities  May miss opportunity to offer CCE to community Packet Pg 51 1 Page 15 of 15 Community Choice Energy Feasibility Study Results October 3, 2017 The County also received $327,500 from outside entities to help fund the Phase I costs. Additionally, over the past two fiscal years, the Board has conditionally appropriated $275,000 and $300,000 for anticipated Phase 2 and Phase 3 costs, respectively, should your Board direct staff to continue CCE implementation. Key_Contract_Risks: N/A Staffing Impacts: No additional staffing requests are being made at this time. However, depending on Board direction, staff may request additional resources to pursue next steps. Special Instructions: Please send one copy of the minute order to Jennifer Cregar. Attachments: Attachment A: Technical Feasibility Study on Community Choice Aggregation for the Central Coast Region (report and study appendices also may be downloaded at http://www.centralcoastpower.org/resources.nrg) Attachment B: CEQA NOE Attachment C: Comparison Matrix of Community Choice Energy Programs Authored by: Jennifer Cregar, Project Supervisor, Energy and Sustainability Initiatives Packet Pg 52 1 Community Choice Energy Program Comparison Matrix September 2017 Central Coast Power Apple Valley Choice Energy CleanPowerSF Lancaster Choice Energy Marin Clean Energy Peninsula Clean Energy Pico Rivera Innovative Municipal Energy Redwood Coast Energy Authority Silicon Valley Clean Energy Sonoma Clean Power Inland Choice Power Los Angeles Community Choice Energy Monterey Bay Community Power Milestones June 2015 - SB County BOS provided direction and funding for feasibility study December 2015 - Advisory Working Group formed Summer 2017 - feasibility study and peer review expected to be completed Fall 2017 - CCE votes expected Spring 2020 - possible launch 2010 - Initial feasibility study 2014-2015 - Updated feasibility study September 2016 - Submitted implementation plan (IP) November 2016 - IP certified by CPUC April 2017 - Launch May 2004 - SF BOS authorized CCE program June 2007 - Draft implementation plan (IP) approved by SF BOS March 2010 - Revised IP approved by SF BOS and submitted to CPUC May 2010 - CPUC certified IP; SFPUC & PG&E execute CCA Service Agreement (later extended through Dec 2018) June 2013 - CPUC certified revised IP August 2015 - CPUC certified another revised IP May 2016 - Phase 1 launch Nov 2017 - Phase 2 launch Summer 2019 - Full launch July 2013 - Initial Phase I feasibility study completed Q2 2014 - Phase II feasibility study completed May 2014 - Lancaster City Council authorized CCE program and approved implementation plan (IP) October 2014 - CPUC certified IP March 2015 - CPUC certified revised IP May 2015 - Phase 1 launch Oct 2015 - Remaining residential + commercial accounts launched 2017 - Launched California Choice Energy Authority to provide backend services to other SoCal CCAs December 2008 - JPA formed May 2010 - Phase 1 launch 2011 - Included other accounts in original member jurisdictions; added new Marin County cities 2012 - Remaining Marin accounts started service; Richmond joined; EE programs launched 2013 - Program launched in Richmond 2015 - Unincorporated Napa County and cities of Benicia, El Cerrito, and San Pablo joined September 2016 - Additional Napa and Contra Costa County cities joined 2018 - Planned addition of unincorporated Contra Costa County + 8 cities December 2014 - Initial CCE research September 2015 - Feasiblity study completed October 2015 - JPA formed February 2016 - Deadline for cities to join JPA April 2016 - Implementation plan submitted October 2016 - Phase 1 launch April 2017 - Phase 2 launch October 2017 - Estimated final phase launch Mid-2016 - Joined California Choice Energy Authority to develop implementation plan and provide support services December 2016 - Implementation plan submitted September 2017 - Phase 1 (full) launch June 2015 - RCEA board approved CCE implementation September 2015 - JPA amended for CCE October 2016 - Implementation plan (IP) submitted January 2017 - IP certified May 2017 - Full launch Late 2017 - Ferndale to join (last city in Humboldt County) 2014 - Initial CCE research May 2015 - Initial CCE assessment report November 2015 - Feasibility study March 2016 - Formed JPA April 2016 - Feasibility study completed July 2016 - Submitted implementation plan April 2017 - Phase 1 launch July 2017 - Phase 2 (final) launch 2011 - Steering committee formed to explore CCE; feasibility study completed 2012 - Original implementation plan; JPA formed 2013 - Revised implementation plan submitted and certified; cities sign on May 2014 - Phase 1 launch December 2014 - Phase 2 launch June 2015 - Cloverdale, Petaluma, and Rohnert Park joined June 2017 - Mendocino County, Fort Bragg, Point Arena, and Willits joined November 2016 - Feasibility study covering tri-COG region completed Spring 2017 - San Bernardino County withdrew its interest due to pressure from anti-CCE group July 2016 - Feasibility study completed September 2016 - LA County BOS directed staff to proceed and form a JPA with interested cities April 2017 - LA County approved CCE for unincorporated county January 2018 - Estimated Phase 1 launch July 2018 - Estimated Phase 2 launch January 2019 - Estimated Phase 3 launch 2013 - Advisory group formed Mid-2014 - Study funds raised May 2016 - Feasibility study completed February-April 2017 - JPA formed August 2017 - Submitted implementation plan (IP) March 2018 - Estimated Phase 1 launch July 2018 - Estimated Phase 2 launch Current No. Customers Served Tri-County: ~600,000 accounts AWG: ~393,000 Unincorporated SB County: ~53,000 ~28,000 accounts (July 2017)~76,000 accounts (July 2017); ~360,000 accounts at full launch ~51,000 accounts (July 2017)~256,000 accounts (July 2017)~290,000 accounts (July 2017 ~16,000 accounts (implementation plan estimate at full launch)~61,000 accounts (July 2017)~210,000 accounts (July 2017)~600,000 accounts (July 2017)~1.3M accounts (feasibility study estimate at full launch) Unincorporated county: ~300,000 accounts (feasibility study estimate) Uninc. + cities: ~1.5M accounts (feasibility study estimate at full launch) ~270,000 accounts (IP estimate at full launch) Opt-out Rate Feasibility study assumed 15% (+ all Direct Access customers, which comprise 23.5% of AWG customers) Unknown 3.3% (July 2017)6% (October 2016) 16% (Jun 2010, based on initial participants); decreased to 9% at most recent program expansion in Sep 2016 1.8% (July 2017)Unknown 3% (May 2017)< 2% (July 2017)12% (2017)Unknown Unknown IP estimates ~5% (August 2017) Current Annual Load Tri-County: ~8,500 GWh AWG: ~5,900 GWh Unincorporated SB County: ~1,300 GWh * Includes non-DA customers only ~220 GWh (2017); ~280 GWh (2018 - 1st full year of operations) 535 GWh (July 2017); ~3,600 GWh (full launch) Peak: 93 MW (July 2017) ~600 GWh (July 2017) Peak: 123 MW (July 2017) ~2,800 GWh (July 2017) Peak: 520 MW (July 2017) ~3,600 GWh (July 2017) Peak: 660 MW (July 2017) ~230 GWh (implementation plan estimate at full launch) ~730K GWh (implementation plan estimate at full launch)~3,500 GWh (July 2017) ~2,300 GWh (2016); ~2600 GWh (June 2017) Peak: 512 MW (July 2017) ~21,000 GWh (feasibility study estimate at full launch) ~3,000 GWh (feasibility study estimate for unincorporated county) ~2,300 GWh (Phase 1 - March 2018; Phase 2: ~3,600 GWh (Phase 2 - July 2018) Current Financials For AWG Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario, 2020 Net: -$44,000 (feasibility study estimate) Revenues: $13.2M (2017 projection from IP) Costs: $12.2M (2017 projection from IP) Net: $1.0M (2017 projection from IP) In process of developing monthly financial statements; will also be included in annual CAFRs for SFPUC (July 2017) Revenues: $23.4M (2016) Revenues: $44.1M ( March 2016) Costs: $14.6M (March 2016) Net: $29.5M (March 2016) Net position: $18M (FY16-17); projected $33M (FY1718) Revenues: $12.5M (2018 projection from IP) Costs: $$12.1M (2018 projection from IP) Net: $$460,000 (2018 projection rom IP) Unknown Net position: $6.7M (June 2017); $31.1M (2018 projection from IP) Revenues: $69.6M (June 2017) Costs: $15.9M (June 2017) Net: $53.7M (June 2017) Unknown Unknown Revenues: $173M (2018 projection from IP) Costs: $134M (2018 projection from IP) Net: $39M (2018 projection from IP) Rollout Strategy Phase 1: Large commercial accounts Phase 2: Small and medium commercial accounts Phase 3: Residential, outdoor lighting, and traffic control accounts No phasing - all customers served on Day 1 Phase 1: Sample of residential and commercial accounts Phase 1: Municipal + sample of residential and commercial accounts Phase 2: Remaining Phase 1: Municipal + sample of residential and C&I accounts comprising 20% of load Phase 2: Another 20% of residential and C&I accounts Phase 3: Remaining accounts in Marin Couny Phase 4: Richmond accounts Phase 5: Unincorporated Napa County accounts Phase 6: San Pablo, Benicia, and El Cerrito accounts Phase 7: American Canyon, Calistoga, Lafayette, Napa, St. Helena, Walnut Creek, and Yountville accounts Phase 1: Municipal + small/medium commercial + 20% of residential + early adopters Phase 2: Large C&I + 35% of residential Phase 3: Agricultural + street lighting + remaining residential Phase 4: Remaining (if needed) No phasing - all customers served on Day 1 No phasing - all customers served on Day 1 Phase 1: Municipal + small/medium commercial + 20% of residential accounts Phase 2: All remaining accounts Note: IP originally called for 3 phases with option for 4th phase; Board voted to collapse into 2 phases Phase 1: Sample of residential and most commercial accounts Phase 2: Remaining accounts in initial service territory Phase 3: Cloverdale, Petaluma, and Rohner Park accounts Phase 4: Mendocino County, Fort Bragg, Point Arena, and Willits accounts Phase 1: Municipal accounts + 5% of commercial accounts Phase 2: Remaining Phase 1: LA County municipal accounts in unincorporated county Phase 2: Non-residential accounts Phase 3: Residential accounts Phase 1: All C&I and agricultural accounts Phase 2: All residential accounts Phase 3: Remaining (if needed) Post-Launch Governing Body Apple Valley Town Council SFPUC with rate approval by SF BOS Lancaster City Council, California Choice Energy Authority (CCEA) JPA JPA JPA Pico Rivera City Council, California Choice Energy Authority (CCEA) JPA JPA (existing)JPA JPA JPA JPA JPA Pre-Launch Coordinating Body Advisory Working Group comprised of San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties and the cities of Camarillo, Carpinteria, Moorpark, Ojai, Santa Barbara, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Ventura Town of Apple Valley SFPUC City of Lancaster County of Marin, Marin Municipal Water District, North Marin Water District, Berkeley, Emeryville, Oakland, and Pleasant contributed to "CCA Demonstration Project" Later formed Local Government Task Force County advisory committee of all cities and select stakeholders met for 8 months until JPA was formed and Board was seated City of Pico Rivera RCEA Board CCE Partnership comprised of Santa Clara County, Cupertino, Mountain View, and Sunnyvale later morphed into JPA with all 12 participating jurisdictions Steering committee of the Sonoma County Water Agency, city council members, city managers and staff, business representatives, activists, and others Informal coordination among Coachella Valley Association of Governments, San Bernardino Associated Governments, and Western Riverside Council of Governments Stakeholder advisory group led by LA County Santa Cruz County hosts the Planning and Development Advisory Committee which is made up of interested cities and some local experts OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT Page 1 of 5 Packet Pg 53 1 Community Choice Energy Program Comparison Matrix September 2017 Central Coast Power Apple Valley Choice Energy CleanPowerSF Lancaster Choice Energy Marin Clean Energy Peninsula Clean Energy Pico Rivera Innovative Municipal Energy Redwood Coast Energy Authority Silicon Valley Clean Energy Sonoma Clean Power Inland Choice Power Los Angeles Community Choice Energy Monterey Bay Community Power OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT Community Advisory Committee No Not explicity for CPSF, but SFPUC has an existing Citizens' Advisory Committee that includes a Power Subcommittee No No Yes Unknown Yes - existing Community Advisory Committee to also provide feedback on CCE matters Unknown Yes - JPA Agreement includes requirement for: - Ratepayer Advisory Committee to be appointed by board and comprised of 3 C&I customers and 4 residential customers (1 of whom must be a tenant) - Business Operations Committee to be appointed by board and comprised of 5 members with expertise in managmeent, administration, finance, public contracts, infrastructure development, renewable power generation, power sale and marketing, and energy conservation Unknown Unknown Yes Original Jurisdictions 1) Apple Valley 1) City and County of San Francisco 1) Lancaster 1) Marin County 2) Belvedere 3) Fairfax 4) Mill Valley 5) San Anselmo 6) San Rafael 7) Sausalito 8) Tiburon 1) San Mateo County 2) Atherton 3) Belmont 4) Brisbane 5) Burlingame 6) Colma 7) Daly City 8) East Palo Alto 9) Foster City 10) Half Moon Bay 11) Hillsborough 12) Menlo Park 13) Millbrae 14) Pacifica 15) Portola Valley 16) Redwood City 17) San Bruno 18) San Carlos 19) San Mateo 20) South San Francisco 21) Woodside 1) Pico Rivera 1) Humboldt County 2) Arcata 3) Blue Lake 4) Eureka 5) Fortuna 6) Rio Dell 7) Trinidad 1) Santa Clara County 2) Campbell 3) Cupertino 4) Gilroy 5) Los Altos 6) Los Altos Hills 7) Los Gatos 8) Monte Sereno 9) Morgan Hill 10) Mountain View 11) Saratoga 12) Sunnyvale 1) Sonoma County 2) Cotati 3) Santa Rosa 4) Sebastopol 5) Sonoma 6) Windsor 1) Riverside County 2) Banning 3) Blythe 4) Calimesa 5) Canyon Lake 6) Catherdral City 7) Coachella 8) Corona 9) Desert Hot Springs 10) Eastvale 11) Hemet 12) Indian Wells 13) Indio 14) Jurupa Valley 15) La Quinta 16) Lake Elsinore 17) Menifee 18) Moreno Valley 19) Murrieta 20) Norco 21) Palm Desert 22) Palm Springs 23) Perris 24) Rancho Mirage 25) Riverside 26) San Jacinto 1) Los Angeles County 1) Monterey County 2) Carmel-By-The-Sea 3) Del Rey Oaks 4) Gonzales 5) Greenfield 6) King City 7) Marina 8) Monterey 9) Pacific Grove 10) Salinas 11) Sand City 12) Seaside 13) Soledad 14) San Benito County 15) Hollister 16) San Juan Bautista 17) Santa Cruz County (lead agency) 18) Capitola 19) Santa Cruz 20) Scotts Valley 21) Watsonville Current Jurisdictions 1) Apple Valley 1) City and County of San Francisco 1) Lancaster Note: CCEA jurisdictions listed separately 1) Marin County 2) Belvedere 3) Corte Madera 4) Fairfax 5) Larkspur 6) Mill Valley 7) Novato 8) Ross 9) San Anselmo 10) San Rafael 11) Sausalito 12) Tiburon 13) Napa County 14) American Canyon 15) Calistoga 16) Napa 17) St. Helena 18) Yountville 19) Benicia (Solano County) 20) El Cerrito (Contra Costa County) 21) Richmond (Contra Costa County) 22) San Pablo (Contra Costa County) 23) Walnut Creek (Contra Costa 1) San Mateo County 2) Atherton 3) Belmont 4) Brisbane 5) Burlingame 6) Colma 7) Daly City 8) East Palo Alto 9) Foster City 10) Half Moon Bay 11) Hillsborough 12) Menlo Park 13) Millbrae 14) Pacifica 15) Portola Valley 16) Redwood City 17) San Bruno 18) San Carlos 19) San Mateo 20) South San Francisco 21) Woodside 1) Pico Rivera 1) Humboldt County 2) Arcata 3) Blue Lake 4) Eureka 5) Fortuna 6) Rio Dell 7) Trinidad 1) Santa Clara County 2) Campbell 3) Cupertino 4) Gilroy 5) Los Altos 6) Los Altos Hills 7) Los Gatos 8) Monte Sereno 9) Morgan Hill 10) Mountain View 11) Saratoga 12) Sunnyvale 1) Sonoma County 2) Cloverdale 3) Cotati 4) Petaluma 5) Rohnert Park 6) Santa Rosa 7) Sebastopol 8) Sonoma 9) Windsor 10) Mendocino County 11) Fort Bragg 12) Point Arena 13) Willits It appears Riverside County, Rancho Mirage, and San Jacinto will pursue their own CCAs independent of what the Tri-COG region chooses. San Bernardino County is not moving forward. 1) Los Angeles County 2) Calabasas 3) Rolling Hills Estates 4) South Pasadena 5) West Hollywood 1) Monterey County 2) Carmel-By-The-Sea 3) Gonzales 4) Greenfield 5) Marina 6) Monterey 7) Pacific Grove 8) Salinas 9) Sand City 10) Seaside 11) Soledad 12) San Benito County 13) Hollister 14) San Juan Bautista 15) Santa Cruz County (lead agency) 16) Capitola 17) Santa Cruz 18) Scotts Valley 19) Watsonville Page 2 of 5 Packet Pg 54 1 Community Choice Energy Program Comparison Matrix September 2017 Central Coast Power Apple Valley Choice Energy CleanPowerSF Lancaster Choice Energy Marin Clean Energy Peninsula Clean Energy Pico Rivera Innovative Municipal Energy Redwood Coast Energy Authority Silicon Valley Clean Energy Sonoma Clean Power Inland Choice Power Los Angeles Community Choice Energy Monterey Bay Community Power OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT JPA Composition N/A N/A Spun off California Choice Energy Authority to provide back-office services to other cities pursuing CCE 24 members - 1 per jurisdiction Nominee and alternate required to be elected official 22 members - 1 per city + 2 for San Mateo County Nominee required to be elected official; alternate can also be staff Member of California Choice Energy Authority 9 members - 1 per jurisdiction + water district 12 members - 1 member per jurisdiction Nominee required to be elected official; alternate can also be staff or member of public 2 official JPA members (County + Water Agency), but all 9 cities sit on board and have voting privileges, so 11 participants overall - currently 1 per jurisdiction, but allowed to appoint more than 1 with board approval; Santa Rosa permitted to have same number of voting participants as Sonoma County Not required to be elected official Feasibility study evaluates two JPA options: 1) New tri-COG JPA 2) Separate existing JPAs (1 per COG) 5 members (as of September 2017) - 1 member per jurisdiction Nominee required to be elected official; alternates (up to 2) can also be a member of an advisory body, staff person, or member of public 11 members - weighted based on population as follows: - 1 seat per jurisdiction for populations of 50K+: 1) Monterey County 2) Santa Cruz County 3) Salinas 4) Santa Cruz 5) Watsonville - 1 seat per jurisdiction b/c of large geographic area: 6) San Benito County - 1 seat shared b/t Santa Cruz County's small cities: 7a) Scotts Valley 7b) Capitola - 1 seat shared among Monterey County's small Peninsula Cities: 8a) Carmel 8b) Monterey 8c) Pacific Grove JPA Voting Structure N/A N/A N/A 1st Tier: Voting share is split 50/50 as follows: - Simple Majority (1 vote per member) - Load Share (proportional based on load) 2nd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority (based on 50/50 split above) required to amend JPA agreement 1st Tier: Simple Majority (1 vote per member) 2nd Tier: Load Share (proportional based on load) + Simple Majority - 1 vote per member except for County which must share 1 vote among its 2 positions - Can be called by any member on any vote 3rd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority required for involuntary termination of a member or amendment of the JPA agreement - 3/4 majority required for eminent domain and member $ contributions N/A 1st Tier: Voting share is weighted as follows: - 1/3 Pro Rata Share calculated as follows: [1/Total # CCE Participants] x 1/3 - 2/3 Customer Base Share calculated as follows [# CCE customers in member's jurisdiction/Total # of CCE customers] x 2/3 Only CCE participants may vote on CCE matters (not all existing RCEA JPA members are CCE participants). 2nd Tier (applies to all RCEA members, not just CCE participants): Special Voting - 2/3 majority required for amending the JPA agreement and allowing members to withdraw 1st Tier: Simple Majority (1 vote per member) 2nd Tier: Load Share (proportional based on load) - Requires 2+ members to call for this voting process - Also requires Simply Majority 3rd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority required to add members, incur debt, allow members to withdraw, shorten notification period for members to withdraw, involuntarily terminate a member, or amend the JPA agreement 1st Tier: Load Share (proportional based on load) - If jurisdiction has more than 1 member, jurisdiction gets only 1 weighted vote 2nd Tier: Load Share + Simple Majority (1 vote per member) - Can be called by any member on any vote 3rd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority required for removal of Ratepayer Advisory Committee member, involuntary termination of a party, or amending the JPA agreement; can also require load share vote - 3/4 majority required for eminient domain and member $ contributions; can also require load share vote Unknown 1st Tier: Simple Majority (1 vote per member) 2nd Tier: Load Share - Can be called by 3+ members on any affirmative 1st Tier vote 3rd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority required for change of Treasurer or Auditor, issuing bonds or other debt, eminent domain, amending the JPA agreement, or involuntary termination of a party 1st Tier: Simple Majority (1 vote per member, per seat assignments above) 2nd Tier: Special Voting - 2/3 majority required for involuntary termination of a party or amending the JPA agreement - 3/4 majority required for eminent domain and member $ contributions JPA Entry Requirements N/A N/A N/A "Initial Participants" must execute JPA agreement within 6 months of the 1st two local governments signing and have lower requirements: - Executed JPA agreement - Ordinance To join after 1st 6 months, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Resolution - Ordinance - Membership fee (proportional) - MCE currently does not require fee to join - Agreement to any supplemental conditions (established by JPA board) - Receive affirmative vote of JPA board Takes effect when the County of San Mateo and 2+ municipalities execute agreement. To join, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Ordinance N/A To join, existing RCEA members must submit: - Ordinance Takes effect when 3+ initial participants execute agreement To join, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Resolution - Ordinance - Membership fee (proportional) - Initial participants share Phase 2 & 3 costs, which must be provided within 30 days of agreement execution date - Agreement to any supplemental conditions (established by JPA board) To join, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Resolution - Ordinance - Membership fee (proportional) - Agreement to any supplemental conditions (established by JPA board) - Receive affirmative vote of JPA board Unknown Takes effect when LA County + 1 other entity execute agreement Other "Initial Participants" must execute JPA agreement within 6 months of the 1st two local governments signing and have lower requirements: - Executed JPA agreement - Ordinance To join after 1st 6 months, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Ordinance - Membership fee (proportional) - Agreement to any supplemental conditions (established by JPA board) - Receive affirmative vote of JPA board Takes effect when 3+ jurisdictions execute agreement. To join, member agency must submit: - Executed JPA agreement - Ordinance - Membership fee (start-up costs allocated proportionally based on population for credit guarantee) JPA Exit Requirements N/A N/A N/A Minimum 30-day notice prior to initial program agreement Subsequent to initial program agreement, minimum 6-month notice required with withdrawal to take effect at beginning of next FY Liable for applicable costs through termination date Minimum 15-day notice prior to program launch if, after receiving bids from power suppliers, bids do not result in: 1) rates equal to or less than PG&E, 2) GHG emission rates lower than PG&E, OR 3) renewable energy content higher than PG&E Subsequent to program launch, minimum 6-month notice required with withdrawal to take effect at beginning of next FY 30-day notice required if member seeks to withdraw after an amendment to the JPA agreement that the member voted against Except for the pre-program launch withdrawal option, liable for applicable costs through termination date N/A No specific exit requirements for CCE participants; any member may withdraw upon receiving 2/3 vote Minimum 15-day notice prior to program launch if, after receiving bids from power suppliers, bids do not result in: 1) rates equal to or less than PG&E, 2) GHG emission rates lower than PG&E, OR 3) renewable energy content higher than PG&E Subsequent to program launch, minimum 6-month notice required with withdrawal to take effect at beginning of next FY Pre-vote notice required if member seeks to withdraw after an amendment to the JPA agreement that the member plans to vote against Liable for applicable costs through termination date, even if withdraw prior to program launch Minimum 6-month notice required with withdrawal to take effect at beginning of next FY 30-day notice required if member seeks to withdraw after an amendment to the JPA agreement that the member voted against Liable for applicable costs through termination date Unknown Minimum 6-month notice and affirmative vote of local government's governing body required Liable for applicable costs through termination date Minimum 15-day notice prior to program launch if, after receiving bids from power suppliers, bids do not result in: 1) rates equal to or less than PG&E, 2) GHG emission rates lower than PG&E, OR 3) renewable energy content higher than PG&E Minimum 6-month notice required with withdrawal to take effect at beginning of next FY 30-day notice required if member seeks to withdraw after an amendment to the JPA agreement that the member voted against Liable for applicable costs through termination date (for pre-program launch withdrawal option, only liable for proportionate credit guarantee contribution) Page 3 of 5 Packet Pg 55 1 Community Choice Energy Program Comparison Matrix September 2017 Central Coast Power Apple Valley Choice Energy CleanPowerSF Lancaster Choice Energy Marin Clean Energy Peninsula Clean Energy Pico Rivera Innovative Municipal Energy Redwood Coast Energy Authority Silicon Valley Clean Energy Sonoma Clean Power Inland Choice Power Los Angeles Community Choice Energy Monterey Bay Community Power OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT JPA Compensation N/A N/A N/A No - but reimbursement policy may be adopted No - but reimbursement policy may be adopted N/A No - but will reimburse for documented expenses related to Board duties No - but reimbursement policy may be adopted No - but reimbursement policy may be adopted Unknown Unknown No - but reimbursement policy may be adopted Implementation model (at launch) In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Resource planning 5) Legal/regulatory (with outside counsel as needed) Outsourced 1) Customer service/call center 2) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment 3) Power scheduling 4) Power procurement 5) Legal/regulatory In-house 1) Resource planning 2) Power procurement 3) Finance 4) Key account management 5) Legal/regulatory 6) Outreach/marketing Outsourced 1) Power scheduling 2) Customer service/call center (with expectation to bring in- house) 3) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment (with expectation to bring in-house) 4) DSM program development and implementation (via SFE and possibly others) In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing Outsourced 1) Resource planning 2) Power procurement 3) Power sheduling 4) Customer service/call center 5) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment 6) Legal/regulatory 7) DSM program development and implementation In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Legal/regulatory Outsourced 1) Resource planning 2) Power procurement 3) Power scheduling 4) Customer service/call center 5) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Legal/regulatory 5) Resource planning Outsourced 1) Power procurement 2) Power scheduling 3) Customer service/call center 4) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Legal/regulatory (with outside counsel as needed) Outsourced 1) Resource planning 2) Power procurement 3) Power scheduling 4) Customer service/call center 5) Data management/billling coordination/enrollment In-house 1) Finance 2) Key account management 3) Resource planning (in coordination with TEA) 4) Outreach/marketing (in coordination with LEAN) Outsourced 1) Power procurement 2) Power scheduling 3) Customer service/call center 4) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment 5) Outreach/marketing 6) Legal/regulatory In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Resource planning 5) Legal/regulatory (with outside counsel as needed) Outsourced 1) Customer service/call center 2) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment 3) Power scheduling 4) Power procurement 5) Legal/regulatory In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Legal/regulatory Outsourced 1) Resource planning (later brought in house 2) Power procurement (later brought in house) 3) Power scheduling 4) Customer service/call center (some brought in house) 5) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment Unknown Unknown In-house 1) Finance 2) Outreach/marketing 3) Key account management 4) Legal/regulatory (with outside counsel as needed) 5) Resource planning Outsourced 1) Power procurement 2) Power scheduling 3) Customer service/call center 4) Data management/billing coordination/enrollment 5) Legal/regulatory Vendors Technical: Willdan/EnerNex Other: LEAN Energy US, MRW & Associates (peer review) Power Supply: Shell Energy North America Technical: Davis & Associates Communications, MRW & Associates, and Pacific Energy Advisors Power Scheduling: APX Power Supply: Calpine, Constellation, and Iberdrola Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Other: Willdan/EnerNex (job creation impact); SF Department of Environment (DSM) Technical: Willdan/EnerNex, Pacific Energy Advisors Power Supply & Scheduling: Direct Energy Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Technical: Navigant Consulting Power Supply: Shell Energy North America, G2Energy, Dominoin, Genpower, Calpine, EDP, Recurrent, Waste Management, East Bay MUD, Avangrid, Portland General Electric, 3 Phases, SunPower, Powerex, City of Santa Clara, First Solar, Nextera, SPower, EDF, Terra Gen, LA County Sanitation District, WAPA, Exelon, Energy America, Morgan Stanley Forecasting: Pacific Energy Advisors Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Technical: Pacific Energy Advisers Marketing: Circlepoint; Green Ideals Power Scheduling: Energy America, ZGlobal Power Supply: Energy America, Shell Energy North America, Exelon, NRG, Mega Renewables, Wright Solar Park, Silicon Valley Power, Direct Energy, Buena Vista Energy, Energy Development & Construction Corp., Cuyama Solar, LLC, Morgan Stanley Group Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Other: MRW & Associates (peer review); Winston & Strawn (legal); Troutman Sanders (legal); PIN Presort (mailing) California Choice Energy Authority Strategy: LEAN Technical: The Energy Authority Marketing: LEAN Power Supply & Scheduling: The Energy Authority Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Other: Braun Blaising McLaughlin & Smith (legal/regulatory), Richards Watson & Gershon (legal/regulatory) Technical: Pacific Energy Advisers Technical: Dalessi Management Consulting (now Pacific Energy Advisors) Power Scheduling: Constellation, Shell Energy North America Power Supply: Constellation, NRG, Direct Energy, ConEdison (finalists but not clear if contracts were executed with all) Data Management/Call Center: Calpine Energy Solutions (formerly Noble Americas) Other: MRW & Associates (peer review); Troutman Sanders (legal) Technical: EES Consulting with Bki Technical: EES Consulting with BKi Other: Arc Alternatives (peer review) Strategy: LEAN Technical: Pacific Energy Advisors Marketing: Miller Maxfield Other: MRW & Associates (peer review) Staffing Tri-County: 57 FTEs (feasibility study estimate) AWG: 45 FTEs (feasibility study estimate) Unincorporated SB County: 28 FTEs (feasibility study estimate) 3-5 FTEs (May 2017)10 FTEs (May 2017)3-5 FTEs (May 2017)40-45 FTEs (May 2017)10-15 FTEs (May 2017)3 FTEs expected to start (September 2017) 3 dedicated FTEs + 4 mostly dedicated FTEs + interns + 2 FTE CCE/EE shared Key Account Managers (May 2017) 12 FTEs (May 2017)15-20 FTEs (May 2017)Unknown Unknown 8 FTEs to launch (Aug 2017) Funding Sources Feasibility Study: $220,756 provided by members of AWG Start Up: Feasibility study suggests a bond issuance Feasibility Study: GF Start Up: ~$2.6M from GF (includes interest, 5-year repayment term starting in 2nd year of operations); Feasibility Study: General Fund Start Up: ~$12.9M from SF GF ($8.9M for feasibility study, IP, etc. + $4M for 2 months working capital that was subject to internal 0.73% IR) Feasibility Study: ~$600K (not confirmed) Start Up: Combination of financing ($3M line of credit) and negotiated cash flow agreements with power service providers (begin payback in 3rd year of operations with 3 years to pay in full) Start UP: ~$3.4M - $110K CEC grant - $75K BAAQMD grant - $140K Marin Municipal Water District contribution - $10K North Marin Water District contribution - $847K Marin County contribution (including interest- free loans) - $750K loan from 3 individuals ($250K each investor @ 5.75% IR, unsecured) - $1.45M in bank loans (secured by Marin County and City of Fairfax, both of whom earned interest) MCE has a $25M line of credit with River City Bank but has not used it as of June 2017 Feasibility Study: San Mateo County provided funding from GF (from residual revenues of a previous project) Start Up: Combination of County and bank financing, including $12 million loan from Barclay and nearly $9M from County including $6M credit guarantee for bank loan; County loans include interest Feasibility Study: General Fund Start Up: General Fund Feasibility Study: Included in start up costs fronted by TEA Start Up: ~$8.2M - $120K RCEA GF - $700K Revolving line of credit wtih 5% interest from county economic development fund - Balance vendor financed with 5% interest for power procurement and operational costs Feasibility Study: ~$680K split evenly between the County, Cupertino, Mountain View, and Sunnyvale Start Up: ~$222.7M, of which $2.0M shared proportionally among initial participants to JPA agreement, with repayment within 3 years (codified in agreement); all debt expected to be repaid by December 2017 Feasibility Study: $60K funded by Water Agency Start Up: $10M funded through 2 separate lines of credit (one for power procurement-related expenses and the other for everything else) Feasibility Study: Each COG contributed proportionately Start Up: ~$20M (feasibility study estimate) Feasibility Study: GF, up to $15M of which the JPA agreement specifies will be repaid to LA County Start Up: ~$43M (feasibility study estimate) Feasibility Study: ~$400K from a combination of grants and private individual and organization contributions Start Up: ~$13M (feasibility study and IP estimate) secured through 2 loans from River City Bank; IP states MBCP expects to recover borrowed costs within 1st year of operations; JPA agreement includes provision for Santa Cruz County to be reimbursed for its early contributions Page 4 of 5 Packet Pg 56 1 Community Choice Energy Program Comparison Matrix September 2017 Central Coast Power Apple Valley Choice Energy CleanPowerSF Lancaster Choice Energy Marin Clean Energy Peninsula Clean Energy Pico Rivera Innovative Municipal Energy Redwood Coast Energy Authority Silicon Valley Clean Energy Sonoma Clean Power Inland Choice Power Los Angeles Community Choice Energy Monterey Bay Community Power OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT Products & Rates Base - 35% renewable at 3% discount relative to SCE generation rate (CARE rate 13% lower) Premium - 50% renewable at $2/month premium (residential) or $0.002/kWh premium (non- residential) Base - 40% renewable (Cat 1), example generation charge slightly lower than PG&E but total bill roughly equivalent Premium - 100% renewable (Cat 1), base rate + $0.02/kWh; rates and total bill lower than PG&E 100% green product Note: overall 2017 portfolio is 53% renewable Base - 35% renewable, example residential generation charge and overall monthly bill very slightly lower (-$1 for resi and -$2.60 for C&I); designed to be 3% lower than SCE Premium - 100% renewable, flat $10 premium resulting in about $10 higher monthly bill for example residential customer Base - 50% renewable, example residential generation charge $12 lower than PG&E but total bill slightly higher (+$2) Premium 1 - 100% renewable, example residential generation charge $7 lower than PG&E but total bill higher (+$6); 2.6% of sales in 2016 Premium 2 - 100% local solar, example residential generation charge $20 higher than PG&E and total bill much higher (+$34) Note: IP noted 25% renewable at launch; have 626.5 MW of new generation under contract Base - 50% renewable and 80% carbon free at 5% discount below PG&E generation rate Premium - 100% renewable and 100% carbon free at $0.01/kWh premium Note: One of PCE's new-build projects is Cuyama (40MW) Base - 50% renewable at unknown rate delta (estimated 1-5% savings in IP) Premium - 100% renewable at $11 more for residential customers and $0.01/kWh premium for non- residential customers Base - 40% renewable - designed portfolio to achieve 2.7% rate savings compared to PG&E's standard rate Premium - 100% renewable at $0.01/kWh premium Base - 50% RPS-eligible renewable & 100% carbon free (other 50% from hydro, as of April 2017) at 1% below PG&E; example residential generation charge ~$15 lower than PG&E and total bill roughly the same Premium - 100% renewable and 100% carbon free at <$0.01/kWh premium; example residential generation charge ~$11 lower than PG&E and total bill ~$3 more Base - 42% RPS-eligible renewable and 91% carbon free Premium - 100% renewable & local to Sonoma County (geothermal) Note: IP noted 33% RE at launch and has incrementally increased since then Feasibility study evaluates three renewble content scenarios (savings shown for year 1): 1) RPS-equivalent - estimated 4.9% rate savings compared to SCE standard rate 2) 50% renewable - estimated 3.8% rate savings compared to SCE standard rate; 11.2% rate savings compared to SCE 50% green power product 3) 100% renewable - estimated 5.7% rate increase compared to SCE standard rate; 9.4% rate savings compared to SCE 100% green power product Feasibility study evaluates three renewable content scenarios (savings shown for year 1): 1) RPS-equivalent - estimated 5.4% rate savings compared to SCE standard rate 2) 50% renewable - estimated 4.1% rate savings compared to SCE standard rate 3) 100% renewable - estimated 6.3% rate increase compared to SCE standard rate Board is considering 30-35% RPS- eligible renewable energy in base product at launch with the remaining power coming from carbon free resources Board is considering setting rates exactly equal to PG&E by customer class and returning any accumulated revenues above costs to customers in the form of a quarterly or year-end bill credit Rate Setting and Structure Rates approved by Town Council Customer classes generally match SCE's with option to establish customized tariffs for large C&I customers (e.g., indexed pricing, fixed term pricing) Rates set through public process overseen by existing Rate Fairness Board and approved by SFPUC Board with veto authority by SF BOS Customer classes match PG&E's at launch with flexibility to modify later Rates approved by City Council Adopted simplified (not 1:1) rate structure/customer class from beginning Rates approved by JPA Board Customer classes generally match PG&E's Rates approved by JPA Board Customer classes generally match PG&E's with flexibility to modify Rates approved by City Council Customer classes generally match SCE's with option to establish customized tariffs for large C&I customers Rates approved by JPA Board Customer classes generally match PG&E's Rates approved by JPA Board Customer classes generally match PG&E's with option to establish customized tariffs for large C&I customers (e.g., indexed pricing, fixed term pricing) Rates approved by JPA Board Customer classes generally match PG&E's with flexibility to modify (e.g., customerize for C&I customers) Unknown Rates to be approved by JPA board Rates to be approved by JPA board Customer classes generally match PG&E's with flexibility to modify (e.g., customerize for C&I customers) Reserve Fund Reserve Fund: 5 months working capital Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: 12% of power costs + 10% of non-power costs Reserve Fund: 3% of annual revenues Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: Unknown Reserve Fund: 90 days operating costs Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: 15% of annual revenues to be achieved within 3 years of completing enrollment Reserve Fund: Unknown Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: Unknown Reserve Fund: 90 days operating costs Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: 15 % of annual revenues to be achieved by March 2019 (subject to ability to maintain competitive rates) Reserve Fund: Unknown Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: 5% of annual gross revenues Unknown Reserve Fund: $6M within first year of operations Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: Unknown Reserve Fund: 90 days operating costs, excluding power costs Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: Unknown Reserve Fund: Unknown Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund: Unknown Unknown Unknown Reserve Fund: ~50% of operating expenses Use of Unbundled RECs No Yes - 8% (July 2017)No - exclusively use Cat 1 (CA bundled) RECs Yes - 8% (July 2017) Yes - 2017-2026 IRP commits to ≤ 3% unbundled RECs in line with RPS No Unknown Initially no, but does not appear to be explicit restriction on Cat 3 RECs Initially no, but amended procurement strategy to include up to 12.5% Cat 3 RECs for 2017-18 due to difficulty securing Category 2 RPS-eligible renewables Initially yes; sold Cat 3 RECs in 2016 and will only use going forward if required to suport local RE programs or protect the value of CA renewables Unknown Unknown No Renewable Energy/Environmental Goals Lower GHG emissions and supports participating local governments' climate action plans Prioritizes local and in-state renewable resources Unknown Unknown City aims to be zero net energy community Base product to be 80% renewable by 2025; long-term* goal of 100% renewable energy 75% GHG-free portfolio by 2017; 100% GHG-free portfolio by 2025 ("subject to operational practicalities and product availability") 25 MW of local solar by 2021 Long-term* goal of offsetting 2% of annual energy requirements with DER Offset 5% of annual capacity (Resource Adequacy) requirements through DR by 2026 * Long-term not defined 100% GHG-free portfolio by 2021 100% CA RPS eligible renewable energy by 2025 20MW of new local power by 2025 Unknown 5% more renewables than PG&E 5% lower GHG intensity than PG&E 100% carbon free Reduce electricity sales by 0.5% by 2024 through energy efficiency (incremental to existing PG&E EE efforts) Website states SCP is "on track" to be 50% renewable by 2020 Unknown Unknown Maximize carbon-free resources DSM Programs Desires to administer/support DSM programs Plans to apply for independent administration Plans to apply for independent administration Withdrew business plan to apply for independent administration Self administer Plans to apply for independent administration; may bring existing local DSM programs in house Plans to apply for independent administration Does not plan to apply to administer; RCEA to continue to administer PG&E-funded programs with intent to add new programs Plans to apply for independent administration; may bring existing local DSM programs in house Plans to apply for independent administration; may bring existing local DSM programs in house Unknown Unknown Do not plan to apply for independent administration within the first few years; TBD after that Opt-out Notice Mechanism Mailer Mailer independent from PG&E bills Mailer Mailer Mailer - possible bill insert with PG&E Mailer Mailer Mailer Mailer Unknown Unknown Mailer Opt-out Fee (after 1st 60 days)Resi- $5; C&I - $25 (proposed)Resi - $5; C&I - $25 Not clear - no mention of fee on website but IP included an estimated $75 fee for resi and$100 for C&I Resi - $5; C&I - $5-25 Resi - $5; C&I - $25 (after 1st year of service)Unknown No fee Base product: Resi - $5; C&I - $25 Premium product: Resi - $105; Small C&I - $125; Large C&I - $25 + $0.03/kWh (if no notice) or $25 (6- month notice) Resi - $5; C&I - $25 Unknown Unknown Resi - $5; C&I - $25 (estimate included in IP) Page 5 of 5 Packet Pg 57 1 FINAL REPORT 3H9HFG 2017 ON COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION FOR THE CENTRAL COAST REGION Packet Pg 58 1       Thispageintentionallyleftblank. Packet Pg 59 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Packet Pg 60 1       Thispageintentionallyleftblank. Packet Pg 61 1 Executive Summary A. Community Choice Aggregation Overview Community Choice Aggregation (CCA) is a program for local jurisdictions in California to procure electricity supply for, and develop energy resources to serve, jurisdictional customers. According to the Local Government Commission,1 the most common reasons for forming a CCA program are to: ƒIncrease use of renewable generation, ƒExert control over rate setting, ƒStimulate economic growth, and ƒLower rates. When a CCA is formed, the local incumbent electric investor-owned utility (IOU) continues to deliver power through its transmission and distribution facilities to customers within its service territory. The IOU also provides monthly customer metering and billing services. The local CCA program procures the electric commodity and sells it to its customers, with the intent that the electricity is less expensive, more local, and/or uses more renewable generation than the current utility alternative. The two components, delivery and generation, already appear separately on customer bills. The incumbent utility continues to provide billing services, but the CCA’s generation rate replaces the IOU’s generation rate on customer bills. Jurisdictions in California have formed CCA programs in efforts to provide constituents the option to be served with a greater mix of renewable and carbon-free energy generation than is provided by the incumbent utility. Eight CCA programs are currently operational in California, with ten more launching in 2018. At least 17 additional jurisdictions are exploring and/or are in the planning stages for CCA. B. Study Scope and Purpose This technical feasibility Study for CCA for the Central Coast Region (Study) was directed by the Advisory Working Group (AWG), which was formed by eleven governments in the Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura County (Tri-County) Region. The Advisory Working Group collectively has named the potential CCA “Central Coast Power.” The Study’s purpose is to advise and guide the Tri-County Region in understanding the feasibility of forming a new CCA program. This Study considers required startup and operational processes and evaluates multiple Ten local governments joined with the County of Santa Barbara to fund this Study, and the following jurisdictions formed an Advisory Working Group in December 2015: • Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County • Unincorporated Santa Barbara County, plus: o City of Carpinteria o City of Santa Barbara • Unincorporated Ventura County, plus: o City of Camarillo o City of Moorpark o City of Ojai o City of Simi Valley o City of Thousand Oaks o City of Ventura Packet Pg 62 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-2 procurement scenarios to determine whether a CCA program in the Tri-County Region is: a) financially feasible; and b) will meet its stated policy objectives. The Study results do not necessarily apply to one or more of the Tri-County local governments joining an existing CCA program. This Study evaluates the financial and economic viability of a CCA by: xForecasting the CCA electricity demand requirements (load) and potential customers by class; xEstimating the costs of procuring the necessary electricity supply; and xProjecting the costs of starting up and administering a CCA program. The Study also enumerates the potential benefits and associated risks of a CCA program and discusses implementation requirements. C. Energy Procurement and Study Scenarios Energy procurement is complex and the total cost of procurement is subject to changes in both market conditions (price) and consumption (volume). Load Serving Entities (LSEs)—IOUs, CCAs, and Electricity Service Providers (ESPs)—must manage both load forecasting and energy procurement with a robust risk management approach to account for the dynamic and volatile nature of power markets and load. Given the uniqueness of multiple municipalities partnering to commission this feasibility Study, the Advisory Working Group established eight geographic participation scenarios. These eight scenarios were selected to explore the feasibility of different sizes and configurations for the CCA program and the potential effect of customer demographics. Although the entire Tri-County Region may not ultimately pursue CCA, certain jurisdictions may decide to move forward with CCA. The eight participation scenarios defined for this Study are: 1.All Tri-County Region 2.AWG Jurisdictions 3.All San Luis Obispo County 4.Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County 5.All Santa Barbara County 6.Unincorporated Santa Barbara County 7.All Ventura County 8.City of Santa Barbara In addition to the eight participation scenarios, three renewable energy content scenarios were considered. All scenarios include a customer option to opt-up to a 100% renewable energy product. For the purposes of this Study, 2% of customers were assumed to opt-up to the 100% renewable option. The three renewable energy content scenarios are as follows: Throughout the report, the term LSE is used to provide illustrative trends that are affecting the Tri-County Region as a whole, regardless of whether the electricity is provided by an IOU, ESP or CCA program. For our purposes, a CCA program is a subset of the more broad LSE term. Packet Pg 63 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-3 xRPS Equivalent: This scenario assumes that Central Coast Power would offer its base electricity product to all customers starting at 33% renewable content in 2020 and ramping up to 50% renewable content by 2030 in alignment with the California minimum Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).2 xMiddle of the Road: This scenario assumes that Central Coast Power would offer its base electricity product to all customers using 50% renewable content for the entire Study period. xAggressive: This scenario assumes that Central Coast Power would offer its base electricity product to all customers using 75% renewable content for the entire Study period. This Study evaluates an eleven-year period from 2020 to 2030, although a potential CCA program could begin earlier than 2020. Figure ES-1 illustrates how the renewable energy content in the RPS Equivalent scenario grows over time, and in the other two scenarios remains constant across the Study period. These three scenarios were chosen to illustrate the relative differences in cost given different levels of renewable supply content. Actual CCA implementation may choose to follow a progression of increasing renewable generation over that period based on cost competitiveness. For example, Central Coast Power CCA may launch in 2020 with 50% renewable content and progress to 75% renewable content by 2030, assuming it can do so at a cost advantage to the IOUs. To enhance report readability, the main body of this report presents results for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenario, for the RPS Equivalent, Middle of the Road, and Aggressive renewable energy content scenarios. Detailed results for the other seven participation scenarios are provided in Appendices C, and E through J. Figure ES-1 Renewable Energy Content Modeled in this Study Packet Pg 64 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-4 The fundamental operational role of a CCA is to forecast customer electricity needs and procure energy and associated energy related services. Power procurement consists of forecasting and risk management tasks. Power procurement planning and day-to-day decision making rely heavily on short-term and long-term forecasts of consumer demand for power. The procurement function must also evaluate and assess the inherent risks associated with demand forecasting and develop appropriate risk mitigation strategies. Though no one can predict future energy demand with 100% certainty, logical, data- driven, industry-standard methodologies to forecasting are available to provide a realistic outlook of energy demand under a variety of future scenarios. Brief discussions covering the forecasts for customer power demand and power procurement costs are provided in the following segments. D. Customer Demand As shown in Figure ES-2, Ventura County is the largest electricity consumer of the three counties considered in this Study, followed by Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. Collectively, customers in the incorporated cities in San Luis Obispo and Ventura Counties consume more electricity than customers in the unincorporated county. The reverse is true in Santa Barbara County. The fundamental operational role of a CCA is to forecast customer electricity needs and procure energy and associated energy related services. Energy is measured in several units throughout this study: kilowatt-hours (kWh), which is the unit used on customer bills; megawatt-hours (MWh), where 1 MWh equals 1,000 kWh; and gigawatt- hours (GWh), where 1 GWh equals 1,000 MWh or 1,000,000 kWh. Packet Pg 65 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-5 Figure ES-2 Annual Demand in Gigawatt-hours (GWh) by County Figure ES-3 shows the annual electricity consumption for each of the Study’s eight geographic participation scenarios. The consumption and number of accounts generally mirror each other, with the exception of unincorporated San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Packet Pg 66 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-6 Figure ES-3 Annual Demand in GWh for Each Geographic Participation Scenario Electricity consumption is forecasted to grow moderately over the Study period, however continued customer adoption of distributed generation (DG) solar photovoltaic (PV) is expected to offset this growth. DG PV reduces the amount of energy that needs to be provided by the potential CCA. Figure ES 4 illustrates the growth of customer-owned DG PV since the year 2000 and illustrates a forecast for additional DG PV capacity if this trend continues. Table ES 1 lists the forecasted annual energy consumption, annual DG PV generation, and the annual net load (consumption-generation) served by the potential CCA for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenario. In summary, a Central Coast Power CCA would likely sell less electricity each year given customer DG PV adoption. Packet Pg 67 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-7 Figure ES-4 California Solar Initiative Incentivized Customer-Owned Solar Photovoltaic in the Region with 2030 Forecast Table ES-1 Load, Distributed Generation, and Net Load Forecast, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios Year Annual Energy Consumption (MWh) Annual DG Generation (MWh) Annual Net Load Served by LSE (MWh) 2020 6,698,164 164,987 6,533,177 2021 6,735,965 202,979 6,532,985 2022 6,777,276 244,414 6,532,862 2023 6,811,982 287,988 6,523,995 2024 6,868,761 335,074 6,533,686 2025 6,888,329 381,954 6,506,375 2026 6,930,669 431,948 6,498,721 2027 6,971,608 483,660 6,487,948 2028 7,026,296 538,288 6,488,008 2029 7,047,280 592,489 6,454,791 2030 7,085,173 650,280 6,434,893 Forecast Packet Pg 68 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-8 As explained in Section II Technical and Financial Analysis, the increasing amount of DG PV also creates more volatile customer load due to the variable nature of its energy output. Solar generation depends on solar irradiance, which can fluctuate significantly over very short periods of time (within seconds) due to weather patterns and resulting cloud cover. E. Power Procurement Cost Forecasts CCAs, like all LSEs, satisfy customer demand for electricity by managing a power supply portfolio, a collection of supply-side resources. For the purposes of this Study, a power supply portfolio is designed to acquire two distinct commodities: energy, typically measured in MWh, and resource adequacy capacity, typically measured in megawatts (MW). Energy resources include natural gas generation, RPS compliant renewable energy generation, energy storage, and California Independent System Operator (CAISO) day- ahead and real-time market purchases. Resource adequacy is used to make sure there is sufficient capacity to produce electricity during peak demand periods. This Study projects decreasing costs for all energy resources considered, except for energy procured in the CAISO markets, where average pricing remains constant and large fluctuations are due to variability in renewable generation for both utility scale resources and customer-owned DG PV. Actual CAISO real- time market prices from January 2014 through October 2016 for the Tri-County Region average around $36 per megawatt-hour (MWh). However, the range of prices around that mean varied greatly, reaching a high of $4,377 per MWh during shortages of supply relative to demand, and a low of -$1,277 per MWh— meaning that CAISO will pay participants to take power—when supply exceeds demand. The high level of DG PV penetration in California, combined with solar and wind energy’s variable nature, accounts for much of this market volatility. This Study has modeled renewable resource variability and the CCA’s associated exposure to CAISO market prices. Table ES-2 presents the Study forecast for the average annual power procurement cost for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenario for the three renewable supply scenarios. As can be seen in these data, the average cost of power procurement for the CCA rises as more renewable energy content is added because renewable generation is forecast to be more expensive than alternative non-renewable resources, despite a slight downward trend in renewable energy prices. Packet Pg 69 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-9 Table ES-2 Average Annual Power Procurement Costs ($ per MWh), AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios Year RPS Equivalent Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Aggressive (75% Renewable) 2020 $67 $74 $87 2021 $66 $74 $85 2022 $66 $74 $85 2023 $66 $72 $85 2024 $66 $72 $84 2025 $66 $71 $84 2026 $67 $70 $84 2027 $68 $70 $84 2028 $68 $69 $83 2029 $68 $69 $82 2030 $68 $69 $81 The total energy requirements served by various power supply options, including PPAs, the CAISO day- ahead and real-time markets, among others, change depending on scenario, however, the price of each option does not. This is what would be expected in actuality, as the amount of energy procured by the CCA would have little to no bearing on the prevailing PPA and market prices on a long-term basis. In support of the power procurement cost forecast, data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2017,3 which provides estimates of renewable generation costs on a regional basis, were examined. This data is used by utilities, energy consultancies, and others to help understand current and future energy-related pricing trends and is based on real-world project construction, financing, ownership, and ongoing operations and maintenance costs. Table ES-3 shows the various costing components for a new solar photovoltaic project and a new wind project, assuming they are installed on sites where there is no need to work within the constraints imposed by existing buildings or infrastructure (greenfield projects). This cost data supports all-in pricing at around $67 per MWh for wind resources and $101 per MWh for solar PV resources. Packet Pg 70 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-10 Table ES-3 Energy Information Administration Cost Estimates for New Wind and Solar Energy Resources in California Description Wind Farm – Onshore Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Configuration 100 MW; 56 turbines at 1.79 MW each 20 MW, Alternating Current, Fixed Tilt Installation Type Greenfield Installation Greenfield Installation Total Capacity (MW) 100 20 Capacity Factor (National Average, Jan. 2016-Apr. 2017) 36.59% 26.76% Total Project Cost, California-Mexico Region ($ per kW-installed) $2,010 $2,578 Total Project Cost, California-Mexico Region ($) $201,000,000 $51,560,000 Variable O&M ($ per MWh) $ - $ - Fixed O&M ($ per kW-year) $46.71 $21.66 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (%) 5.50% 5.50% Debt Finance Term (years) 20 20 Financing Costs per Year ($) $16,819,545 $4,314,506 Fixed O&M Costs per Year ($) $4,671,000 $433,200 Total Project Costs per Year ($) $21,490,545 $4,747,706 Energy Production per Year (MWh) 320,528 46,884 Per Unit Cost ($ per MWh) $67.05 $101.27 Like all energy price forecasts, the one used within the Study—just as those used within other CCA feasibility studies—may or may not accurately reflect actual future conditions, which are unknown and not predictable. Various market drivers may change resulting in different outcomes from those assumed here. The forecast used herein is a reasonable estimate for the purposes of analyzing the feasibility of CCA within the Tri-County Region, but no warranties as to the accuracy of forecast prices for power purchase agreements or CAISO market commodities are implied or should be inferred. For example, large hydroelectric generation resources owned and managed by the IOUs were not significantly utilized during the recent drought years through 2016. Rainfall in the winter of 2016-2017 filled the hydroelectric reservoirs, enabling a low cost, carbon-neutral generation resource for the IOUs. Generally speaking, all other things being equal, increased hydro production will lower IOU generation revenue requirements and could have a dampening effect on IOU rates, potentially lowering the rates required for the CCA to be competitive. F. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impact This Study also evaluated the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact of the renewable energy content of the CCA’s portfolio—including the 100% renewable energy product assumed to be chosen by 2% of customers—relative to that of the incumbent IOUs, Southern California Edison (SCE) and Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E). For the purposes of this comparison, the IOU Base Case assumes the IOUs will progress from currently published 2020 RPS levels of renewable generation linearly to the 50% RPS goal in 2030. Although each IOU may elect to exceed RPS requirements as they have in recent history and relative to 2020 requirements, for example PG&E submitted a joint proposal to decommission the El Diablo nuclear power station and voluntarily reach 55% RPS by 2031,4 neither IOU has publicly stated firm plans to exceed RPS targets. California is currently considering Senate Bill 100, which would increase the renewable energy mandate to: 50% by December 31, 2026 and 60% by December 31, 2030.5 Figure ES-5 summarizes Packet Pg 71 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-11 the GHG impact analysis results for the IOU renewable scenario and three CCA renewable scenarios. Figure ES-5 GHG Emissions Impact Analysis, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios Large hydroelectric generation resources owned and managed by the IOUs do not count towards RPS goals and were also not significantly utilized during the recent drought years through 2016. Rainfall in the winter of 2016-2017 filled the hydroelectric reservoirs enabling a low cost, carbon-neutral generation component for the IOUs. In addition, the pumped hydro energy storage that can balance the variability of other sources of renewable generation also relies on rain to fill reservoirs. Future rainfall and drought conditions are unknown, and therefore the future utilization of large hydroelectric generation by the IOUs cannot be predicted. Additional use of hydro resources or increases to the IOU RPS content would result in lower GHG emissions for the IOUs, potentially decreasing the additional GHG reduction benefit of the CCA program. G. Cost of Service and Financial Pro Forma Analysis The cost of service analysis relied on traditional utility ratemaking principles and followed an industry standard methodology for creation of a financial pro forma to forecast the future economic and financial performance of the CCA program. The Study assessed financial feasibility in terms of the ability of the CCA program to realistically deliver competitive costs for customers while paying its substantial start-up Packet Pg 72 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-12 and agency formation costs and ongoing operating expenses. The first step in the cost of service analysis was developing the projected CCA program revenue requirement: the amount of revenue required to cover the costs of the CCA program, including all operating and non-operating expenses, debt-service payments, a contingency allotment, a working capital reserve, and a rate stabilization fund. The revenue requirement was based on a comprehensive accounting of all pertinent costs and projections of customer participation; assumptions and input development are described later in this report. Cost assumptions relied on historical publicly-available information, power cost forecasts conducted for this Study, data provided by PG&E and SCE, and subject matter expertise gained working with a host of public utilities and similar organizations. Table ES-4 summarizes the CCA program Test Year revenue requirements for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenarios Table ES-4 Test Year CCA Revenue Requirements, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios CCA program customer participation was assumed to be constant for each participation scenario across the three renewable energy content scenarios examined. For all scenarios, an opt-out rate of 15% was used for all rate classes for all years, meaning that 15% of bundled customers by load in each rate class were assumed to opt out of the CCA program.6 This 15% opt-out rate is in addition to an estimated 23.5% of AWG Jurisdictions scenario load that represents typically large commercial customers who are RPS Equivalent Middle of the Road Aggressive REVENUE REQUIREMENT Baseload Total Operating Expenses Excluding Power Costs 10,146,683$ 10,256,373$ 10,482,215$ Total Non-Operating Expenses 16,959,517 18,158,147 20,239,969 Power Costs 461,419,035 489,933,855 549,930,521 Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund 54,171,111$ 57,535,423$ 64,613,615$ BASELOAD REVENUE REQUIREMENT 542,696,345$ 575,883,798$ 645,266,320$ Opt-up to 100% RPS Total Operating Expenses Excluding Power Costs 207,075$ 209,314$ 213,923$ Total Non-Operating Expenses 346,113 370,574 413,061 Power Costs 12,617,576 12,617,576 12,617,576 Contingency/Rate Stabilization Fund 1,105,533$ 1,174,192$ 1,318,645$ OPT-UP TO 100% RPS REVENUE REQUIREMENT 14,276,297$ 14,371,657$ 14,563,205$ TOTAL REVENUE REQUIREMENT 556,972,642$ 590,255,454$ 659,829,525$ AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios Description The Test Year is the future annualized period for which operating costs are analyzed and rate proxies established. The Study Test Year is based on forecasts of CCA operating conditions for years 2022, 2023, and 2024 and represents a twelve-month period of normalized operations selected to evaluate the cost of service for each customer class and the adequacy of rate proxies to provide sufficient revenue. Packet Pg 73 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-13 likely to remain with their existing Direct Access (DA) ESP. Other CCA feasibility studies have supported the assertion that opt-out rates, within a reasonable range, have little bearing on CCA feasibility. Figure ES-6 and Figure ES-7 summarize Test Year customer accounts by rate class and Test Year customer usage by rate class for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenarios, respectively. Average CCA Test Year customer profiles for the three AWG Jurisdictions participation scenarios are provided in Table ES-5. Figure ES-6 Test Year CCA Customer Accounts, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 PG&E Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios SCE Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios Total CCA Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios Thousands Test Year Customer Accounts by Rate Class Traffic Control Residential CARE Residential Lighting Small Comm <200kW Med Comm 200<500kW Large Comm 500<1,000kW Very Large Comm >1,000kW Agriculture Packet Pg 74 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-14 Figure ES-7 Test Year CCA Customer Usage, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 PG&E Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios SCE Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios Total CCA Customers, AWG Jurisdictions Scenarios GWH Test Year Customer Energy Usage by Rate Class Traffic Control Residential CARE Residential Lighting Small Comm <200kW Med Comm 200<500kW Large Comm 500<1,000kW Very Large Comm >1,000kW Agriculture Packet Pg 75 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-15 Table ES-5 Test Year CCA Customer Accounts and Usage, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios While rate design was not part of the Study scope, based on the detailed pro forma analysis, CCA rate proxies by customer class by IOU jurisdiction were developed. Rate proxies represent the amount of revenue by customer class required to make the CCA financially solvent, based on the Test Year. Based on this analysis, CCA baseline customers would have all-in rate proxies that are higher than both PG&E and SCE for most rate classes for all participation and renewable energy content scenarios examined. Table ES-6 through Table ES-8 present the generation rate differences between the CCA and PG&E and SCE for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenarios for the RPS Equivalent, Middle of the Road, and Aggressive renewable energy content scenarios. The generation portion of customers’ bills is the only cost component for which the CCA competes with the incumbent utilities. Customer billing and delivery charges (transmission and distribution) are the same for both CCA and IOU bundled customers. Generation rate comparisons are provided for the first five years of the Study period by rate class.7 The Accounts Annual Load Average Monthly Load Line Description (MWh) (kWh/Account) 1 BASELOAD 2 Agriculture 6,454 490,772 6,337 3 Very Large Comm >1,000kW 13 718,495 4,673,350 4 Large Comm 500<1,000kW 405 441,022 90,742 5 Med Comm 200<500kW 576 297,829 43,094 6 Small Comm <200kW 40,034 1,124,051 2,340 7 Lighting 1,757 26,357 1,250 8 Residential 256,812 1,709,325 555 9 Residential CARE 22,929 124,036 451 10 Traffic Control 841 2,811 278 11 TOTAL BASELOAD 329,821 4,934,699 1,247 12 OPT-UP TO 100% RPS (MWH) 13 Agriculture - - - 14 Very Large Comm >1,000kW - - - 15 Large Comm 500<1,000kW 9 10,071 90,742 16 Med Comm 200<500kW 29 15,106 43,094 17 Small Comm <200kW 538 15,106 2,340 18 Lighting - - - 19 Residential 9,078 60,425 555 20 Residential CARE - - - 21 Traffic Control - - - 22 TOTAL OPT-UP TO 100% RPS 9,655 100,708 869 23 TOTAL CCA 339,476 5,035,407 1,236 CUSTOMERS OPTING UP TO 100% RENEWABLES Portion of Opt Up Portion of Total CCA 24 Agriculture 0%0.00% 25 Very Large Comm >1,000kW 0%0.00% 26 Large Comm 500<1,000kW 10%0.20% 27 Med Comm 200<500kW 15%0.30% 28 Small Comm <200kW 15%0.30% 29 Lighting 0%0.00% 30 Residential 60%1.20% 31 Residential CARE 0%0.00% 32 Traffic Control 0%0.00% 33 TOTAL 100%2.00% Test Year Packet Pg 76 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-16 total anticipated bill impact to residential customers in 2020 is included in Table ES 9. Table ES-6 Generation Rate Comparisons for PG&E, SCE, and CCA, AWG Jurisdictions RPS Equivalent Renewable Energy Content Scenario CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates Agriculture 0.1175 0.0742 0.1175 0.0753 0.1175 0.0749 0.1175 0.0747 0.1175 0.0754 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1183 0.1049 0.1183 0.1065 0.1183 0.1059 0.1183 0.1055 0.1183 0.1065 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1190 0.1097 0.1190 0.1113 0.1190 0.1107 0.1190 0.1103 0.1190 0.1114 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1145 0.1107 0.1145 0.1124 0.1145 0.1118 0.1145 0.1114 0.1145 0.1124 Residential 0.1220 0.1003 0.1220 0.1018 0.1220 0.1013 0.1220 0.1009 0.1220 0.1018 Residential CARE 0.1152 0.0936 0.1152 0.0950 0.1152 0.0945 0.1152 0.0941 0.1152 0.0950 Residential Solar Choice 0.1920 0.1265 0.1920 0.1284 0.1920 0.1277 0.1920 0.1272 0.1920 0.1284 Weighted Average 0.1193 0.0961 0.1193 0.0975 0.1193 0.0970 0.1193 0.0967 0.1193 0.0976 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)24.10%22.27%22.92%23.37%22.22% Rate Class CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates Agriculture 0.1050 0.0543 0.1050 0.0551 0.1050 0.0548 0.1050 0.0547 0.1050 0.0552 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1072 0.0922 0.1072 0.0936 0.1072 0.0931 0.1072 0.0927 0.1072 0.0936 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1064 0.0837 0.1064 0.0850 0.1064 0.0845 0.1064 0.0842 0.1064 0.0850 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1057 0.0777 0.1057 0.0789 0.1057 0.0785 0.1057 0.0782 0.1057 0.0789 Residential 0.0999 0.0712 0.0999 0.0723 0.0999 0.0719 0.0999 0.0716 0.0999 0.0723 Residential CARE 0.0924 0.0635 0.0924 0.0645 0.0924 0.0641 0.0924 0.0639 0.0924 0.0645 Residential Green Tariff 0.1199 0.1127 0.1199 0.1144 0.1199 0.1138 0.1199 0.1134 0.1199 0.1144 Weighted Average 0.1034 0.0776 0.1034 0.0788 0.1034 0.0784 0.1034 0.0781 0.1034 0.0788 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)33.23%31.26%31.97%32.44%31.21% 2026 Rate Class 2022 2023 2024 2025 Packet Pg 77 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-17 Table ES-7 Generation Rate Comparisons for PG&E, SCE, and CCA, AWG Jurisdictions Middle of the Road Renewable Energy Content Scenario Table ES-8 Generation Rate Comparisons for PG&E, SCE, and CCA, AWG Jurisdictions Aggressive Renewable Energy Content Scenario CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates Agriculture 0.1242 0.0742 0.1242 0.0753 0.1242 0.0749 0.1242 0.0747 0.1242 0.0754 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1250 0.1049 0.1250 0.1065 0.1250 0.1059 0.1250 0.1055 0.1250 0.1065 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1257 0.1097 0.1257 0.1113 0.1257 0.1107 0.1257 0.1103 0.1257 0.1114 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1212 0.1107 0.1212 0.1124 0.1212 0.1118 0.1212 0.1114 0.1212 0.1124 Residential 0.1287 0.1003 0.1287 0.1018 0.1287 0.1013 0.1287 0.1009 0.1287 0.1018 Residential CARE 0.1219 0.0936 0.1219 0.0950 0.1219 0.0945 0.1219 0.0941 0.1219 0.0950 Residential Solar Choice 0.1987 0.1265 0.1987 0.1284 0.1987 0.1277 0.1987 0.1272 0.1987 0.1284 Weighted Average 0.1260 0.0961 0.1260 0.0975 0.1260 0.0970 0.1260 0.0967 0.1260 0.0976 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)31.06%29.13%29.82%30.29%29.08% Rate Class CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates Agriculture 0.1117 0.0543 0.1117 0.0551 0.1117 0.0548 0.1117 0.0547 0.1117 0.0552 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1139 0.0922 0.1139 0.0936 0.1139 0.0931 0.1139 0.0927 0.1139 0.0936 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1132 0.0837 0.1132 0.0850 0.1132 0.0845 0.1132 0.0842 0.1132 0.0850 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1124 0.0777 0.1124 0.0789 0.1124 0.0785 0.1124 0.0782 0.1124 0.0789 Residential 0.1066 0.0712 0.1066 0.0723 0.1066 0.0719 0.1066 0.0716 0.1066 0.0723 Residential CARE 0.0991 0.0635 0.0991 0.0645 0.0991 0.0641 0.0991 0.0639 0.0991 0.0645 Residential Green Tariff 0.1266 0.1127 0.1266 0.1144 0.1266 0.1138 0.1266 0.1134 0.1266 0.1144 Weighted Average 0.1102 0.0776 0.1102 0.0788 0.1102 0.0784 0.1102 0.0781 0.1102 0.0788 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)41.87%39.78%40.53%41.04%39.72% 2026 Rate Class 2022 2023 2024 2025 CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates Agriculture 0.1382 0.0742 0.1382 0.0753 0.1382 0.0749 0.1382 0.0747 0.1382 0.0754 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1390 0.1049 0.1390 0.1065 0.1390 0.1059 0.1390 0.1055 0.1390 0.1065 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1397 0.1097 0.1397 0.1113 0.1397 0.1107 0.1397 0.1103 0.1397 0.1114 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1352 0.1107 0.1352 0.1124 0.1352 0.1118 0.1352 0.1114 0.1352 0.1124 Residential 0.1426 0.1003 0.1426 0.1018 0.1426 0.1013 0.1426 0.1009 0.1426 0.1018 Residential CARE 0.1359 0.0936 0.1359 0.0950 0.1359 0.0945 0.1359 0.0941 0.1359 0.0950 Residential Solar Choice 0.2026 0.1265 0.2026 0.1284 0.2026 0.1277 0.2026 0.1272 0.2026 0.1284 Weighted Average 0.1399 0.0961 0.1399 0.0975 0.1399 0.0970 0.1399 0.0967 0.1399 0.0976 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)45.56%43.41%44.18%44.70%43.35% Rate Class CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates Agriculture 0.1258 0.0543 0.1258 0.0551 0.1258 0.0548 0.1258 0.0547 0.1258 0.0552 Commercial/Industrial Small <200kW 0.1280 0.0922 0.1280 0.0936 0.1280 0.0931 0.1280 0.0927 0.1280 0.0936 Commercial/Industrial Medium 200<500 kW 0.1272 0.0837 0.1272 0.0850 0.1272 0.0845 0.1272 0.0842 0.1272 0.0850 Commercial/Industrial Large 500<1000 kW 0.1265 0.0777 0.1265 0.0789 0.1265 0.0785 0.1265 0.0782 0.1265 0.0789 Residential 0.1208 0.0712 0.1208 0.0723 0.1208 0.0719 0.1208 0.0716 0.1208 0.0723 Residential CARE 0.1132 0.0635 0.1132 0.0645 0.1132 0.0641 0.1132 0.0639 0.1132 0.0645 Residential Green Tariff 0.1308 0.1127 0.1308 0.1144 0.1308 0.1138 0.1308 0.1134 0.1308 0.1144 Weighted Average 0.1242 0.0776 0.1242 0.0788 0.1242 0.0784 0.1242 0.0781 0.1242 0.0788 CCA Rate Premium/ (CCA Savings)59.94%57.58%58.43%59.00%57.52% 2026 Rate Class 2022 2023 2024 2025 Packet Pg 78 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-18 Figure ES-8 and Figure ES-9 graphically depict the difference in generation rates between the CCA and PG&E and the CCA and SCE, respectively, for the AWG Jurisdictions scenario for the three renewable content scenarios. Figure ES-8 CCA and PG&E Generation Rate Comparison Summary for AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios 0.0000 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates CCA Rates PG&E Rates AWG RPS Equivalent AWG Middle of The Road AWG Aggressive 2022-2026 Average Base Generation Rates ($/kWh) Packet Pg 79 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-19 Figure ES-9 CCA and SCE Generation Rate Comparison Summary for AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios Table ES-9 shows the percentage change in average generation rates and the monetary change in monthly Residential bills for CCA customers versus PG&E and SCE, and the percent change in GHG emissions for all rate classes. This data is presented for year 2020. The previous Tables ES-6 through ES-8 present weighted average rate impacts across all seven customer classes examined for years 2022-2026. 0.0000 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates CCA Rates SCE Rates AWG RPS Equivalent AWG Middle of The Road AWG Aggressive 2022-2026 Average Base Generation Rates ($/kWh) Packet Pg 80 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-20 Table ES-9 Summary of Forecasted Residential Class Outcomes by Renewable Energy Content Scenario, AWG Jurisdictions Participation Scenarios, Year 2020 Participation Scenario Included Jurisdictions Renewable Energy Content Pacific Gas & Electric Southern California Edison Proportional GHG Comparison Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Monthly Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Monthly Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) All Tri-County Region All San Luis Obispo County All Santa Barbara County All Ventura County RPS Equivalent 22% $11.25 41% $14.55 6% 50% 29% $14.62 51% $17.93 -9% 75% 43% $21.72 71% $25.05 -55% Advisory Working Group Jurisdictions San Luis Obispo County Santa Barbara County Carpinteria Santa Barbara Ventura County Camarillo Moorpark Ojai Simi Valley Thousand Oaks Ventura RPS Equivalent 22% $12.21 41% $16.08 6% 50% 29% $15.92 50% $19.79 -9% 75% 43% $23.68 70% $27.64 -55% All San Luis Obispo County Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo Unincorporated SLO County RPS Equivalent 29% $12.07 7% 50% 36% $14.89 -9% 75% 51% $20.77 -54% Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County Unincorporated SLO County RPS Equivalent 35% $15.70 7% 50% 42% $18.77 -9% 75% 56% $25.21 -54% All Santa Barbara County Buellton Carpinteria Goleta Guadalupe Santa Barbara Santa Maria Solvang Unincorporated Santa Barbara County RPS Equivalent 24% $11.15 45% $14.53 7% 50% 31% $14.27 55% $17.69 -9% 75% 45% $20.78 75% $24.22 -55% Packet Pg 81 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-21 Participation Scenario Included Jurisdictions Renewable Energy Content Pacific Gas & Electric Southern California Edison Proportional GHG Comparison Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Monthly Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Generation Rate Comparison (% Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Monthly Bill Comparison ($ Increase/ Decrease for CCA Customers) Unincorporated Santa Barbara County Unincorporated Santa Barbara County RPS Equivalent 26% $15.08 47% $19.29 7% 50% 33% $18.97 56% $23.23 -9% 75% 47% $27.11 76% $31.44 -54% All Ventura County Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard Port Hueneme Santa Paula Simi Valley Thousand Oaks Ventura Unincorporated Ventura County RPS Equivalent 41% $15.87 6% 50% 50% $19.54 -10% 75% 70% $27.35 -55% City of Santa Barbara Santa Barbara RPS Equivalent 69% $17.91 6% 50% 78% $20.42 -10% 75% 100% $25.98 -55% Table ES-10 shows annual operating results for the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenario for the RPS Equivalent renewable energy content scenario. Net operating margins are negative for all years of the Study period; meaning revenues are not sufficient to cover total operating and non-operating expenses plus the contingency and rate stabilization fund. In the initial years of the study period, this is due to the phasing in of customers and a lag in revenues versus expenditures. In later years, this revenue insufficiency is caused by rates remaining unchanged even though the CCA experiences an increase in operating costs. Rates were not increased because the CCA rate proxies were not competitive with IOU rates from the onset of the Study through 2026. Raising rates would make them less competitive. Although working capital initially is adequate, given the current debt assumptions that include a long-term bond financing in year 2020 of $288 million, starting in year 2024, working capital declines below targeted amounts and continues to decrease. The combination of increasingly negative net margins and a shortage of working capital would indicate the need for a rate increase around year 2026, again which would further harm the CCA program’s rate competitiveness relative to the IOUs. Table ES-11 presents this data for the AWG Jurisdictions Middle of the Road renewable energy content scenario and Table ES-12 presents this data for the AWG Jurisdictions Aggressive renewable energy content scenario. Generally speaking, results for these alternate renewable energy content scenarios are similar to the RPS Equivalent scenario, although Packet Pg 82 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-22 net margins and working capital deficiencies are better due to the higher rate proxies, which are set at the beginning and remain constant throughout the study period. Rate increases would still be required, but around the 2028 timeframe. Table ES-10 CCA Annual Operating Results, AWG Jurisdictions RPS Equivalent Scenario Table ES-11 CCA Annual Operating Results, AWG Jurisdictions Middle of the Road Scenario Year Operating Revenues ($000s) Total Operating Expenses Plus Contingency/ Rate Stabilization Fund ($000s) Non-Operating Revenues/ (Expenses) ($000s) Debt Service ($000s) Net Margin1 ($000s) Working Capital Fund ($000s) Working Capital Target ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) (%) a b c d a - b + c - d e f e - f (e/f)-1 2020 110,694 139,109 1,145 11,515 (38,785) 211,653 47,077 164,575 350% 2021 445,293 469,267 2,227 11,515 (33,262) 189,905 159,570 30,335 19% 2022 545,838 533,627 2,046 17,276 (3,018) 186,887 181,993 4,894 3% 2023 556,361 541,735 2,028 17,276 (621) 186,266 184,808 1,458 1% 2024 556,922 543,639 1,925 17,276 (2,067) 184,199 185,916 (1,716) -1% 2025 555,121 543,720 1,985 17,276 (3,889) 180,310 186,453 (6,143) -3% 2026 554,190 551,493 1,903 17,276 (12,676) 167,634 189,470 (21,836) -12% 2027 553,316 556,757 1,721 17,276 (18,995) 148,639 191,885 (43,246) -23% 2028 553,165 566,687 1,396 17,276 (29,401) 119,238 195,934 (76,697) -39% 2029 550,808 569,985 1,183 17,276 (35,270) 83,967 198,148 (114,181) -58% 2030 548,923 581,521 386 17,276 (49,488) 34,479 203,224 (168,745) -83% NPV of Net Margin:(176,175) 1 Net Margin includes Net Operating Income less Debt Service. The net present value (NPV) of the Net Margin is determined using a 4% discount rate and is as of Year 2020. The discount rate is equal to the interest rate on the long-term debt. Year Operating Revenues ($000s) Total Operating Expenses Plus Contingency/ Rate Stabilization Fund ($000s) Non-Operating Revenues/ (Expenses) ($000s) Debt Service ($000s) Net Margin1 ($000s) Working Capital Fund ($000s) Working Capital Target ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) (%) a b c d a - b + c - d e f e - f (e/f)-1 2020 117,525 150,875 1,235 12,330 (44,445) 223,724 50,583 173,141 342% 2021 472,491 504,655 2,323 12,330 (42,170) 193,883 170,117 23,766 14% 2022 579,072 568,848 2,082 18,499 (6,192) 187,691 192,494 (4,803) -2% 2023 590,222 575,366 2,044 18,499 (1,600) 186,092 194,836 (8,745) -4% 2024 590,817 570,966 1,962 18,499 3,314 189,406 194,067 (4,662) -2% 2025 588,906 566,609 2,098 18,499 5,896 195,302 193,284 2,019 1% 2026 587,918 570,586 2,132 18,499 966 196,268 195,171 1,096 1% 2027 586,991 571,282 2,109 18,499 (681) 195,587 196,227 (640) 0% 2028 586,831 576,506 1,991 18,499 (6,182) 189,405 198,875 (9,470) -5% 2029 584,330 574,978 2,033 18,499 (7,113) 182,292 199,652 (17,361) -9% 2030 582,330 581,643 1,541 18,499 (16,270) 166,022 203,279 (37,257) -18% NPV of Net Margin:(100,693) 1 Net Margin includes Net Operating Income less Debt Service. The net present value (NPV) of the Net Margin is determined using a 4% discount rate and is as of Year 2020. The discount rate is equal to the interest rate on the long-term debt. Packet Pg 83 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-23 Table ES-12 CCA Annual Operating Results, AWG Jurisdictions Aggressive Scenario H. Feasibility Outcome Summary The two primary factors driving forecasted feasibility results for the CCA include: 1) the competitiveness of CCA rates against PG&E and SCE rates; and 2) the long-term financial viability of the enterprise. Under all participation scenarios, because the rate comparisons show most rate classes paying more for power supplied by the CCA than from the incumbent utilities and because the CCA does not maintain sufficient revenues and working capital throughout the Study period, the CCA is deemed infeasible Regarding rate competitiveness, forecasted CCA revenue requirements are primarily driven by power procurement costs and the Cost Responsibility Surcharge (CRS), which consists of the Competitive Transition Charge (CTC), the Department of Water Resources Bond Charge (DWR-BC), and the Power Cost Indifference Adjustment (PCIA). Together, these two components represent 78% of the total of the overall projected CCA revenue requirement and are thus primary drivers of rate competitiveness against the two incumbent utilities. Recent historical movements in the CRS and the allocation of incumbent utility revenue requirements between generation and delivery (i.e., transmission and distribution) appear to disadvantage the CCA program. The delivery portion of customers’ bills is paid equally by CCA and bundled IOU customers. Generally speaking, in recent years the incumbent utilities appear to have been shifting costs from generation to delivery, as discussed in more detail in Section II.E.1 Feasibility Drivers. The CCA only competes against the incumbent utilities on generation. Given the assumptions of this Study, SCE and PG&E forecasted generation rates are not high enough to support CCA feasibility at the forecasted level of CCA power procurement and operational costs. Regarding long-term financial viability, the CCA would Year Operating Revenues ($000s) Total Operating Expenses Plus Contingency/ Rate Stabilization Fund ($000s) Non-Operating Revenues/ (Expenses) ($000s) Debt Service ($000s) Net Margin1 ($000s) Working Capital Fund ($000s) Working Capital Target ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) ($000s) Working Capital Surplus/ (Deficiency) (%) a b c d a - b + c - d e f e - f (e/f)-1 2020 131,724 168,193 1,428 13,746 (48,788) 250,176 55,745 194,431 349% 2021 528,600 562,520 2,607 13,746 (45,059) 218,863 187,370 31,493 17% 2022 647,505 633,619 2,361 20,623 (4,375) 214,487 211,809 2,679 1% 2023 659,933 646,015 2,318 20,623 (4,388) 210,100 215,901 (5,801) -3% 2024 660,598 637,896 2,227 20,623 4,307 214,407 214,025 381 0% 2025 658,462 633,821 2,370 20,623 6,388 220,795 213,325 7,469 4% 2026 657,357 640,581 2,395 20,623 (1,452) 219,343 216,041 3,302 2% 2027 656,320 642,137 2,343 20,623 (4,096) 215,247 217,353 (2,106) -1% 2028 656,142 648,050 2,187 20,623 (10,344) 204,903 220,206 (15,303) -7% 2029 653,345 646,843 2,185 20,623 (11,936) 192,967 221,079 (28,111) -13% 2030 651,109 652,739 1,647 20,623 (20,605) 172,362 224,476 (52,114) -23% NPV of Net Margin:(120,434) 1 Net Margin includes Net Operating Income less Debt Service. The net present value (NPV) of the Net Margin is determined using a 4% discount rate and is as of Year 2020. The discount rate is equal to the interest rate on the long-term debt. In no participation or renewable energy content scenario were the CCA program’s rates competitive with PG&E or SCE. Given the underperformance of the CCA in terms of being rate competitive, consistently having negative net margins, and failing to meet the target for working capital, the CCA under the assumptions used in the Study is neither reliably solvent nor financially feasible. Packet Pg 84 1 Executive Summary Technical Feasibility Study Central Coast Region on Community Choice Aggregation August 2017 ES-24 need additional rate increases around the year 2026 timeframe to maintain adequate working capital and increase net margins, further decreasing rate competitiveness. I. Sensitivity Analysis Results Upon completion of the Study outcomes for each participation and renewable energy content scenario, additional sensitivity cases were examined against the AWG Jurisdictions participation scenario to determine how changes in key inputs affect feasibility outcomes. These sensitivities included: (1) Decreases in power procurement costs; (2) Increases in IOU rate escalation; and (3) Decreases in staffing costs. Each sensitivity was examined individually to determine the point at which the CCA could be feasible. As discussed in more detail in Section II.E.2, Pro Forma Sensitivity Analysis, in order for the CCA to be feasible: xPower procurement costs would have to decrease 40% over the Study forecast, or xPG&E and SCE rates would have to escalate at an additional 4.0% per year above the Study forecast. A staffing cost reduction alone is not expected to affect program feasibility. Although not examined as part of this Study, some combination of changes to the Study assumptions could result in a more feasible outcome. Like all feasibility studies, assumptions used herein are based on a forecast of future conditions which may or may not occur. Various market and regulatory drivers may change resulting in different outcomes from those assumed herein. The assumptions used in the Study are reasonable for the purposes of analyzing the feasibility of CCA within the Tri-County Region, but no warranties as to the accuracy of outcomes are implied or should be inferred. Packet Pg 85 1 Abbreviated Technical Review of Community Choice Energy 2017 CITY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND UNICORPORATED COUNTY OF SAN LUIS OBISPO PILOT POWER GROUP | 8910 University Center Lane, Suite 520 San Diego, CA 92122 Packet Pg 86 1 1 October 20, 2017 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2 Model Assumptions .................................................................................................................................. 4 Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................... 4 City of San Luis Obispo .............................................................................................................................. 5 Load Profile and Shape ......................................................................................................................... 6 Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) ................................................................................................. 7 Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction ............................................................................. 8 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 9 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy .................................................................................................. 10 Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction ............................................................ 10 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 11 Unincorporated County of San Luis Obispo ............................................................................................ 12 Load Profile and Shape ....................................................................................................................... 13 Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) ............................................................................................... 14 Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction ........................................................................... 15 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 16 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy .................................................................................................. 17 Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction ............................................................ 17 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 18 City and Unincorporated County of San Luis Obispo, combined ............................................................ 19 Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) ............................................................................................... 20 Scenario 1 Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction .......................................................... 21 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 21 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy .................................................................................................. 22 Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction ............................................................ 22 Simulation Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 23 Glossary of Terms.................................................................................................................................... 24 Packet Pg 87 1 2 October 20, 2017 Executive Summary California Community Choice Energy (CCE) laws and regulations allow cities and counties to procure electricity for their residents, businesses and municipal facilities. A CCE program provides citizens with an alternative to a single monopoly electric supplier and local control over a number of key electric procurement related choices. The local control can result in rate savings, cleaner energy, local economic development, customized programming, and many other community-based possibilities. Adopted in 2002, California Assembly Bill 117 (AB 117), as later supplemented in 2011 by California Senate Bill 790, provides the broad framework under which CCE operates. Under AB 117, local governments procure electricity for retail customers aggregated within their boundaries, while the investor-owned utility (IOU) continues to provide transmission, distribution, metering, billing, payment collection, customer care, and other services. When a CCE is ready to begin service to customers, all of the CCE jurisdictional customers are automatically enrolled in the CCE electric procurement service. Any customer who prefers to continue to receive procurement service from the IOU may, without penalty, opt-out of the CCE. Because the CCE is now procuring electricity for the CCE customer, the charge for the CCE electric procurement appears on the IOU bill, along with an additional charge called the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment (PCIA). The PCIA is imposed on CCE customers to ensure that customers opting out of CCE service are not financially impacted by the formation and operation of the CCE. Since Marin Clean Energy launched in 2010, seven additional CCE programs have become operational. About half a dozen CCE programs are very close to launching, and much more are under serious consideration. Nearly all of the operational, and most of the planned, CCE programs are multi- jurisdictional joint powers authorities. The City of Lancaster has, however, operated a single-jurisdiction CCE for almost three years, and plans for other single-jurisdiction CCE programs are currently underway. This abbreviated technical review is provided to the County of San Luis Obispo (SLO County) and the City of San Luis Obispo (SLO City) as a preliminary evaluation of the financial viability of establishing a CCE program. However, this review is by no means a complete analysis of a CCE. If SLO County, SLO City or both elect to take the next steps in moving forward with establishing a CCE, it is strongly encouraged that a full technical analysis and review be completed by a management consulting firm to determine the feasibility of establishing a CCE. There are several initial assumptions used in the “baseline” feasibility model. These assumptions include an uncollected factor of 0.25%; the opt-out rate of 20%; and renewable purchase to follow the standard RPS schedule. There is no consideration is made for rate stabilization fund, project and programming fund, or accounting for debt service. These items would have to come out of available headroom and are specific to each CCE structure. It is best to establish a “baseline” and make adjustments to the model from the baseline. This way one can identify the impact of making a change to the model. The review evaluates the financial viability of a City, County and Combined CCE program by: • Forecasting the electricity load requirements and potential customers by class; • Estimating the costs of procuring the electric supply; Packet Pg 88 1 3 October 20, 2017 • Estimating the costs of administering the CCE program; • Evaluating the impact of changes to the review assumptions on the projected feasibility outcomes by completing two scenarios based on the renewable content and customer rate reduction. Two (2) scenarios were completed for each jurisdiction, identifying the possible headroom available to the CCE: • Scenario 1 – Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Compliant • Scenario 2 - 50% Renewable Energy A summary of the results of the expected outcomes and sensitivity analysis is outlined below: The results of the feasibility model provided positive headroom for all years, for all scenarios and jurisdictions. In Scenario 1 the most headroom is made available for the CCE. This scenario, in all jurisdictions, provides the minimum renewable energy needed to remain compliant with the RPS rules outlined by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The CCE portfolio content will have 29% renewable energy beginning in 2018 and will increase by 2% each and every year there afterward. Scenario 1 assumes as close to what the IOU’s renewable energy portfolio would be over a ten-year period. The primary difference between the County results and the City results is the size of load and number of accounts. The County energy load is much larger than the City energy load, with the largest contributors being large commercial and agriculture making up approximately 43.3% of the overall load. Whereas, the City energy load is relatively evenly split between residential, small, medium and large commercial customer. In Scenario 2, there was positive headroom for all years and for all jurisdictions. However, as expected, the headroom has decreased due to the higher percentage of renewable energy in the portfolio, increasing to 50% for all years. The cost of renewable energy is purchased at a premium to the cost of system energy. However, the CCE still have available headroom and would be rate competitive with the IOU. Year Criteria Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Probability Revenue is > $0.00 76%65%63%48%67%51% Expected Revenue*$1,615,225 $854,189 $2,285,884 $198,967 $3,908,504 $1,060,548 Certainty Level**45.29% 46.63% 45.46% 46.80% 47.09% 46.67% Probability Revenue is > $0.00 100% 100% 100%99% 100%98% 2018-2022 Expected Revenue $14,093,511 $10,834,614 $27,171,335 $18,248,709 $41,260,248 $29,078,711 Certainty Level 58.69% 58.11% 58.94% 58.77% 59.59% 58.72% Probability Revenue is > $0.00 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Expected Revenue $34,330,515 $29,331,450 $70,516,335 $56,847,625 $104,815,718 $86,147,916 Certainty Level 87.25% 86.98% 86.62% 87.01% 86.51% 87.61% Potential rate reduction***5.58% 4.77% 4.26% 3.44% 4.62% 3.80% City County County and City *** "Potential rate reduction" provides a rough estimate of annual reduction across all rate classes if all net revenue were applied to reducing rates * "Expected Revenue" indicates the net revenue as predicted by the model ** "Certainty level" indicates probability of net revenue equaling or exceeding the expected model outcome 2018 2018-2027 Packet Pg 89 1 4 October 20, 2017 The certainty level is relatively the same between jurisdictions. However, the certainty level is slightly higher in Scenario 2 versus Scenario 1 due to the higher component of system energy which is more volatile than renewable energy. Although, both renewable energy and system energy is subject to market fluctuation. Model Assumptions The Model has the flexibility to modify multiple assumptions, the Baseline assumptions are highlighted in red. Furthermore, the descriptive statistics are provided on any variable that was allowed to fluctuate during the sensitivity analysis. • Rate Reduction – 0%, unless the scenario requires it • Uncollected Factor – 0.25% • Opt-out Rate – 20%, sensitivity analysis allows opt-out rate to fluctuate using a normal distribution with parameters: mean 20% and standard deviation 2.0% • Renewable Purchase – Standard RPS schedule, unless the scenario requires a specific percentage • GHG Purchase – 0% • Rate Stabilization Fund – 0% • Renewable Category 2 Override – No • Opt-up 100% Renewable Program – 0% • NP15 On Peak – Sensitivity analysis allows on-peak prices to fluctuate using a lognormal distribution with parameters: mean $37.77, the standard deviation of $8.25, and coefficient to NP 15 Off Peak of 0.98. Statistical information based on historical NP 15 On Peak prices between 2009 – 2016. • NP15 Off Peak - Sensitivity analysis allows off-peak prices to fluctuate using a lognormal distribution with parameters: mean $29.50, the standard deviation of $8.16, and coefficient to NP 15 On Peak of 0.98. Statistical information based on historical NP 15 Off Peak prices between 2009 – 2016. Scenarios Two (2) scenarios were completed for SLO City, SLO County, and SLO City and County combined. Each scenario identified the possible headroom available to the CCE. All scenarios consisted of a combination of renewable energy component and some level of rate reduction. • Scenario 1 - RPS Compliant (following the CPUC RPS Compliance Rules) and zero rate reduction are given to customers. This scenario is considered the baseline. • Scenario 2 - 50% Renewable Energy and zero rate reduction given to customers. Packet Pg 90 1 5 October 20, 2017 City of San Luis Obispo Based on historical utility load data provided by Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), the total annual load was 271,342 MWh with 22,971 accounts. Direct Access load was removed from the analysis since it is unknown whether a Direct Access customer would elect to participate in the CCE. The consumption between rate class is relatively evenly distributed between small commercial, medium commercial, large commercial, and residential ranging from 51,000 MWh to 79,000 MWh. However, looking at accounts by rate class, the majority of the accounts are residential at 18,764 or 81.7%. Using the data provided, the model increases load and accounts year-over-year by 0.25% and 0.50%, respectively. The growth assumptions were provided by the California Energy Commission (CEC) California Energy Demand Forecast for 2015 – 2025. A baseline opt-out rate of 20% was utilized for all rate classes for all years, resulting in a decrease of overall accounts remaining in the CCE. Although other CCEs has experienced lower opt-out rates, it is believed 20% is a conservative case to use in the feasibility analysis. The sensitivity analysis does allow the opt-out rate to fluctuate between 15% and 25%. At launch, following the increases in load and accounts by 2018, there would be ~18,543 accounts remaining in the CCE. The annual retail load associated with the accounts remaining would be ~219,406 MWh in the first year of the CCE, but would marginally increase year-over-year due to increased customer accounts and load. The total CAISO required load would be ~231,935 in the first year, the delta between retail load and CAISO load is considered the energy waste resulting from the transmission of electrical energy across power lines or line losses. Customer Accounts 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 15,124 15,162 15,200 15,238 15,276 15,314 Small Commercial 2,898 2,905 2,912 2,919 2,927 2,934 Medium Comercial 244 244 244 244 244 244 Large Commercial 110 110 110 110 110 110 Agricultural 8 8 8 8 8 8 Lighting 160 160 160 160 160 160 Total Accounts 18,543 18,588 18,634 18,679 18,724 18,770 Customer Load (MWh)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 64,067 64,388 64,709 65,033 65,358 65,685 Small Commercial 49,746 49,995 50,245 50,496 50,748 51,002 Medium Comercial 41,489 41,696 41,905 42,114 42,325 42,536 Large Commercial 64,276 64,597 64,920 65,245 65,571 65,899 Agricultural 100 100 100 100 100 100 Lighting 821 821 821 821 821 821 Total Retail Load (MWh)219,406 220,499 221,597 222,700 223,809 224,923 Total CAISO Load (MWh)231,935 233,090 234,250 235,417 236,589 237,767 Rate Class Bundled Accounts Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 10 0.0% LARGE COMMERCIAL 137 0.6% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 305 1.3% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 160 0.7% RESIDENTIAL 18,764 81.7% SMALL COMMERCIAL 3,595 15.7% Total 22,971 100.0% Rate Class Annual MWh Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 125 0.0% LARGE COMMERCIAL 79,152 29.2% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 51,091 18.8% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 821 0.3% RESIDENTIAL 78,895 29.1% SMALL COMMERCIAL 61,259 22.6% Total 271,342 100.0% Packet Pg 91 1 6 October 20, 2017 Load Profile and Shape It is the responsibility of the CCE to procure energy and related services. Forecasting, profiling, and risk management are the primary tasks conducted for energy procurement. In doing so, one must evaluate the load data provided by the utility. Using data provided by PG&E, we are able to illustrate the forecasted hourly load shape by month. The Forecasted Hourly Shape graph demonstrates the expected load consumed in each hour over a 24-hour period by month. As expected, there is a higher demand for energy during the peak demand over a day. Furthermore, we are able to illustrate the forecasted total monthly load over the calendar year. As expected, there is a higher expected consumption during the winter months due to shorter daylight hours. Packet Pg 92 1 7 October 20, 2017 Finally, we are able to illustrate the forecasted on-peak and off-peak block shape by month. This information is vital when purchasing block energy from the wholesale market. Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) The RPS Compliant or baseline scenario would demonstrate the profitability of the CCE if it followed the minimum RPS requirement outlined by the CPUC. In the CCE Revenue and Expense charge, each colored section represents the fees associated with a CCE. The purple section is the net CCE revenue or headroom off the CCE. The largest expense associated with a CCE is power supply costs, identified in the red section. The blue section represents non-bypassable charges, which are fees associated with the PG&E and include, but limited to, franchise fees, PCIA charges, and DWR Bond fees. The non- bypassable charges are forecasted to decline with the elimination of the bond fee, and the cost of PG&E’s resources is increasing. However, if prices decline further, that would have upward pressure on the PCIA charges, putting pressure on headroom for the CCE. In the simulation analysis, the PCIA is allowed to fluctuate due to changes in the market prices. Finally, the green section represents O&M fees associated with running a CCE. As no structure has been outlined Packet Pg 93 1 8 October 20, 2017 by the county or city, an average of cost was applied similarly to the administrative costs associated with Sonoma Clean Power and Marin County Energy. The CCE Headroom chart provides a closer view of the forecasted year-over-year annual headroom for the CCE. The red line is the cumulative CCE headroom over the ten-year period. Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction As an alternative to Scenario 1, any available headroom could be applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 5.58% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $88.91 per annum over a ten-year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Packet Pg 94 1 9 October 20, 2017 Simulation Analysis Compared with many other CCA feasibility studies, this abbreviated study takes a modified approach to sensitivity analysis, instead of the conventional low-medium-high approach, this study utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation to determine a range of values and probabilities. The Monte Carlo simulation randomly generates a range of values for the assumption that has been pre-defined. The inputs feed into defined forecast cells, providing a range of possible outcomes, which are expressed as a distribution graph. The distribution can be used to provide an estimate of the probability or certainty of a particular outcome. Pilot considers this approach to provide a more accurate and meaningful analysis. For the sensitivity, three periods of cumulative CCE headroom are highlighted in the analysis: year 2018, years 2018-2022, and years 2018-2027. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 45.29%. The modeled expected headroom is $1,615,225, with a mean of $1,334,612 and a median of $1,402,297. The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $14,093,511 is 58.69%, with a mean of $14,947,479 and a median of $15,059,219. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $34,330,315 is 87.25%, with a mean of $42,904,220 and a median of $43,084,122. Packet Pg 95 1 10 October 20, 2017 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy In the second scenario, the renewable component has increased to 50% exceeding the RPS requirements outlined by the CPUC. There is no rate reduction applied in this scenario. Under the higher renewable energy scenario, the headroom for the CCE falls by ~$761,000 each year. The lower headroom is due to the cost or premium paid to purchase additional renewable energy over and above the RPS compliance requirement. Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction As an alternative in Scenario 2, any available headroom could be applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 4.77% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $76.68 per annum over a ten-year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Packet Pg 96 1 11 October 20, 2017 Simulation Analysis We performed a sensitivity analysis on multiple variables that are key to determine a probability of a specific outcome, in this case, forecasted headroom. Using a statistical modeling simulation software, we were able to derive probabilistic frequency curves. These curves are formulated by running thousands of trials of the model which allow the key variables to fluctuate based on specific parameters. For the sensitivity, again three periods of cumulative CCE headroom are highlighted in the analysis: year 2018, years 2018-2022, and years 2018-2027. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 46.63%. The modeled expected headroom is $854,189, with a mean of $617,382 and a median of $707,329. The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $10,834,614 is 58.11%, with a mean of $11,690,356 and a median of $11,686,958. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $29,331,450 is 86.98%, with a mean of $37,866,887 and a median of $37,893,785. Packet Pg 97 1 12 October 20, 2017 Unincorporated County of San Luis Obispo Based on historical utility load data provided by PG&E, the total annual load was 745,275 MWh with 58,801 accounts. Direct Access load was removed from the analysis since it is unknown whether a Direct Access customer would elect to participate in the CCE. As expected, the consumption between rate classes would vary from the City data. Large commercial and agricultural load is taking a larger segment of consumption at 25.9% and 17.4%, respectively, followed by residential customer load at 36.9%. However, looking at accounts by rate class, the majority of the accounts are residential at 48,676 or 82.8%. Using the data provided, the model increases load and account year-over-year by 0.25% and 0.50%, respectively. The growth assumptions were provided by the California Energy Commission (CEC) California Energy Demand Forecast for 2015 – 2025. A baseline opt-out rate of 20% was utilized for all rate classes for all years, resulting in a decrease overall accounts remaining in the CCE. Other CCEs has experienced lower opt-out rates. However, it is believed 20% is a conservative case to use in the feasibility analysis. The sensitivity analysis does allow the opt-out rate to fluctuate between 15% and 25%. At launch following the increases in load and accounts by 2018, there would be ~47,477 accounts remaining in the CCE. The annual retail load associated with the accounts remaining would be ~601,400 MWh in the first year of the CCE, but would marginally increase year-over-year due to increased customer accounts and load. The total CAISO required load would be ~636,013 in the first year, the delta between retail load and CAISO load is considered line loss. Line loss is energy waste resulting from the transmission of electrical energy across power lines. Customer Accounts 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 39,234 39,332 39,430 39,529 39,627 39,726 Small Commercial 5,091 5,104 5,116 5,129 5,142 5,155 Medium Comercial 244 244 244 244 244 244 Large Commercial 170 170 170 170 170 170 Agricultural 2,214 2,214 2,214 2,214 2,214 2,214 Lighting 525 525 525 525 525 525 Total Accounts 47,477 47,587 47,698 47,810 47,921 48,033 Rate Class Bundled Accounts Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 2,767 4.7% LARGE COMMERCIAL 212 0.4% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 305 0.5% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 525 0.9% RESIDENTIAL 48,676 82.8% SMALL COMMERCIAL 6,316 10.7% Total 58,801 100.0% Rate Class Annual MWh Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 129,855 17.4% LARGE COMMERCIAL 193,117 25.9% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 59,149 7.9% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 1,272 0.2% RESIDENTIAL 275,069 36.9% SMALL COMMERCIAL 86,813 11.6% Total 745,275 100.0% Customer Load (MWh)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 223,372 224,489 225,612 226,740 227,873 229,013 Small Commercial 70,498 70,850 71,204 71,560 71,918 72,278 Medium Comercial 48,033 48,273 48,514 48,757 49,001 49,246 Large Commercial 156,823 157,607 158,395 159,187 159,983 160,783 Agricultural 103,884 103,884 103,884 103,884 103,884 103,884 Lighting 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 1,272 Total Retail Load (MWh)601,400 603,881 606,375 608,881 611,400 613,931 Total CAISO Load (MWh)636,013 638,639 641,279 643,931 646,597 649,276 Packet Pg 98 1 13 October 20, 2017 Load Profile and Shape It is the responsibility of the CCE to procure energy and related services. Forecasting, profiling, and risk management are the primary tasks conducted for energy procurement. In doing so, one must evaluate the load data provided by the utility. Using data provided by PG&E, we are able to illustrate the forecasted hourly load shape by month. The Forecasted Hourly Shape graph demonstrates the expected load consumed in each hour over a 24-hour period by month. As expected, there is a higher demand for energy during the peak demand over a day. Furthermore, we are able to illustrate the forecasted total monthly load over the calendar year. As expected, there is a higher expected consumption during the winter months due to shorter daylight hours. As well as, higher expected consumption during the summer months, possibly due to A/C usage in the inland region. Packet Pg 99 1 14 October 20, 2017 Finally, we are able to illustrate the forecasted on-peak and off-peak block shape by month. This information is vital when purchasing block energy from the wholesale market. Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) The RPS Compliant or baseline scenario demonstrates the profitability of the CCE if it only followed the minimum RPS requirement outlined by the CPUC. In the CCE Revenue and Expense charge, each colored section represents the fees associated with a CCE. The purple section is the net CCE revenue or headroom off the CCE. The largest expense associated with a CCE is power supply costs, identified in the red section. The blue section represents non-bypassable charges, which are fees associated with the PG&E and include, but limited to, franchise fees, PCIA charges, and DWR Bond fees. The non-bypassable charges are forecasted to decline with the elimination of the bond fee, and the cost of PG&E’s resources is increasing. However, if prices decline further, that would have upward pressure on the PCIA charges, putting pressure on headroom for the CCE. In the simulation analysis, the PCIA is allowed to fluctuate due to changes in the market prices. Finally, the green section represents O&M fees associated with running a CCE. As no structure has been outlined by the county or city, an average of cost was applied similarly to the administrative costs associated with Sonoma Clean Power and Marin County Energy. Packet Pg 100 1 15 October 20, 2017 The CCE Headroom chart illustrates a closer view of the forecasted year-over-year annual headroom for the CCE. The red line is the cumulative CCE headroom. Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction As an alternative to Scenario 1, any available headroom could be applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 4.26% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $67.36 per annum over a ten-year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Packet Pg 101 1 16 October 20, 2017 Simulation Analysis We performed a sensitivity analysis on multiple variables that are key to determine a probability of a specific outcome, in this case, forecasted headroom. Using a statistical modeling simulation software, we were able to derive probabilistic frequency curves. These curves are formulated by running thousands of trials of the model which allow the key variables to fluctuate based on specific parameters. For the sensitivity, again three periods of cumulative CCE headroom are highlighted in the analysis: year 2018, years 2018-2022, and years 2018-2027. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 45.46%. The modeled expected headroom is $2,285,884, with a mean of $1,447,631 and a median of $1,709,989. The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $27,171,335 is 58.94%, with a mean of $29,629,721 and a median of $29,633,252. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $70,516,335 is 86.62%, with a mean of $93,924,794 and a median of $94,947,213. Packet Pg 102 1 17 October 20, 2017 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy In Scenario 2, the renewable component has increased to 50% exceeding the RPS requirements outlined by the CPUC. There is no rate reduction applied in this scenario. Under the higher renewable energy scenario, the headroom for the CCE falls by ~$2,090,000 each year. The lower headroom is due to the cost or premium paid to purchase additional renewable energy than the RPS compliance requirement. Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction As an alternative to Scenario 2, any available headroom is applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 4.26% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $55.13 per annum over a ten- year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Packet Pg 103 1 18 October 20, 2017 Simulation Analysis We performed a sensitivity analysis on multiple variables that are key to determine a probability of a specific outcome, in this case, forecasted headroom. Using a statistical modeling simulation software, we were able to derive probabilistic frequency curves. These curves are formulated by running thousands of trials of the model which allow the key variables to fluctuate based on specific parameters. For the sensitivity, again three periods of cumulative CCE headroom are highlighted in the analysis: year 2018, years 2018-2022, and years 2018-2027. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 46.80%. The modeled expected headroom is $198,967, with a mean of ($508,772) and a median of ($236,488). The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $18,248,709 is 58.77%, with a mean of $20,470,588 and a median of $20,812,001. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $56,847,625 is 87.01%, with a mean of $80,311,648 and a median of $80,636,845. Packet Pg 104 1 19 October 20, 2017 City and Unincorporated County of San Luis Obispo, combined Finally, based on historical utility load data provided by PG&E, the total annual load was 1,016,617 MWh with 81,772 accounts. Direct Access load was removed from the analysis since it is unknown whether a Direct Access customer would elect to participate in the CCE. As expected, the consumption between rate classes from the Combined data varies from the segregated City and County datasets. Large commercial and residential load is taking a larger segment of consumption at 26.8% and 34.8%, respectively, followed by agriculture load at 17.4%. However, looking at accounts by rate class, the majority of the accounts are residential at 67,440 or 82.5%. Using the data provided, the model increases load and account year-over-year by 0.25% and 0.50%, respectively. The growth assumptions were provided by the California Energy Commission (CEC) California Energy Demand Forecast for 2015 – 2025. A baseline opt-out rate of 20% was utilized for all rate classes for all years, resulting in a decrease of overall accounts remaining in the CCE. Other CCEs have experienced lower opt-out rates. However, it is believed 20% is a conservative case to use in the feasibility analysis. The sensitivity analysis does allow the opt-out rate to fluctuate between 15% and 25%. At launch following the increases in load and accounts by 2018, there would be ~66,020 accounts remaining in the CCE. The annual retail load associated with the accounts remaining would be ~820,807 MWh in the first year of the CCE, but would marginally increase year-over-year due to increased customer accounts and load. The total CAISO required load would be ~867,948 in the first year, the delta between retail load and Rate Class Annual MWh Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 129,980 12.8% LARGE COMMERCIAL 272,269 26.8% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 110,240 10.8% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 2,093 0.2% RESIDENTIAL 353,963 34.8% SMALL COMMERCIAL 148,072 14.6% Total 1,016,617 100.0% Rate Class Bundled Accounts Rate Class Percentage AGRICULTURE 2,777 3.4% LARGE COMMERCIAL 349 0.4% MEDIUM COMMERCIAL 610 0.7% OUTDOOR LIGHTING 685 0.8% RESIDENTIAL 67,440 82.5% SMALL COMMERCIAL 9,911 12.1% Total 81,772 100.0% Customer Load (MWh)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 287,440 288,877 290,321 291,773 293,232 294,698 Small Commercial 120,243 120,845 121,449 122,056 122,666 123,280 Medium Comercial 89,521 89,969 90,419 90,871 91,325 91,782 Large Commercial 221,098 222,204 223,315 224,432 225,554 226,681 Agricultural 103,984 103,984 103,984 103,984 103,984 103,984 Lighting 2,093 2,093 2,093 2,093 2,093 2,093 Total Retail Load (MWh)820,807 824,380 827,972 831,581 835,209 838,854 Total CAISO Load (MWh)867,948 871,730 875,530 879,349 883,187 887,045 Customer Accounts 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Residential 54,358 54,494 54,630 54,766 54,903 55,041 Small Commercial 7,988 8,008 8,028 8,048 8,069 8,089 Medium Comercial 488 488 488 488 488 488 Large Commercial 279 279 279 279 279 279 Agricultural 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 2,222 Lighting 685 685 685 685 685 685 Total Accounts 66,020 66,176 66,332 66,489 66,646 66,803 Packet Pg 105 1 20 October 20, 2017 CAISO load is considered line loss. Line loss is energy waste resulting from the transmission of electrical energy across power lines. Scenario 1 – RPS Compliant (Baseline) The RPS Compliant or baseline scenario demonstrates the profitability of the CCE if it only followed the minimum RPS requirement outlined by the CPUC. In the CCE Revenue and Expense charge, each colored section represents the fees associated with a CCE. The purple section is the net CCE revenue or headroom off the CCE. The largest expense associated with a CCE is power supply costs, identified in the red section. The blue section represents non- bypassable charges, which are fees associated with the PG&E and include, but limited to, franchise fees, PCIA charges, and DWR Bond fees. The non-bypassable charges are forecasted to decline with the elimination of the bond fee, and the cost of PG&E’s resources is increasing. However, if prices decline further, that would have upward pressure on the PCIA charges, putting pressure on headroom for the CCE. In the simulation analysis, the PCIA is allowed to fluctuate due to changes in the market prices. Finally, the green section represents O&M fees associated with running a CCE. As no structure, has been outlined by the county or city, an average of cost was applied similarly to the administrative costs associated with Sonoma Clean Power and Marin County Energy. The CCE Headroom chart illustrates a closer view of the forecasted year-over-year annual headroom for the CCE. The red line is the cumulative CCE headroom. Packet Pg 106 1 21 October 20, 2017 Alternative - RPS Compliant with a Rate Reduction As an alternative to Scenario 1, any available headroom is applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 4.62% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $73.11 per annum over a ten-year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Simulation Analysis We performed a sensitivity analysis on multiple variables that are key to determine a probability of a specific outcome, in this case, forecasted headroom. Using a statistical modeling simulation software, we were able to derive probabilistic frequency curves. These curves are formulated by running thousands of trials of the model which allow the key variables to fluctuate based on specific parameters. Again, we focused on three outcomes: 2018 headroom, 2018-2022 cumulative headroom, and 2018-2027 cumulative headroom. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 47.09%. The modeled expected headroom is $3,908,504, with a mean of $3,009,003 and a median of $3,427,841. The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $41,260,248 is 59.59%, with a mean of $44,588,691 and a median of $44,826,288. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $86,147,916 is 87.61%, with a mean of $136,352,526 and a median of $137,544,563. Packet Pg 107 1 22 October 20, 2017 Scenario 2 – 50% Renewable Energy In the third scenario, the renewable component has increased to 50% exceeding the RPS requirements outlined by the CPUC. There is no rate reduction applied in this scenario. Under the higher renewable energy scenario, the headroom for the CCE falls by ~$2,850,000 each year. The lower headroom is due to the cost or premium paid to purchase additional renewable energy than the RPS compliance requirement. Alternative – 50% Renewable Energy with a Rate Reduction As an alternative to Scenario 2, any available headroom is applied as a rate reduction over a 10-year period. When applying the available headroom as a rate reduction, the CCE will have zero ($0) at the end of the 10 years. This provides an average rate reduction of 3.80% over the 10 years. When comparing a customer’s monthly billing, the rate reduction lowers the monthly bill by an average of $60.88 per annum over a ten- year period. The chart illustrates the average monthly invoice, across all rate classes and a consumption of 500 kWh per month and a delivery rate of $0.1394 per kWh. Packet Pg 108 1 23 October 20, 2017 Simulation Analysis We performed a sensitivity analysis on multiple variables that are key to determine a probability of a specific outcome, in this case, forecasted headroom. Using a statistical modeling simulation software, we were able to derive probabilistic frequency curves. These curves are formulated by running thousands of trials of the model which allow the key variables to fluctuate based on specific parameters. Again, we focused on three outcomes: 2018 headroom, 2018-2022 cumulative headroom, and 2018-2027 cumulative headroom. Allowing variables such as opt-out rates and forward prices on system generation to fluctuate, the probability of 2018 City CCE headroom to be greater than the expected outcome is 46.67%. The modeled expected headroom is $1,060,548, with a mean of $52,607 and a median of $473,368. The probability of the City 2018-2022 CCE headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $29,078,711 is 58.72%, with a mean of $32,098,164 and a median of $32,303,954. Finally, the probability of the City CCE 2018-2027 headroom to be greater than the modeled expected outcome of $86,147,916 is 87.61%, with a mean of $118,194,123 and a median of $118,589,650. Packet Pg 109 1 24 October 20, 2017 Glossary of Terms aMW: Average annual Megawatt. A unit of energy output over a year that is equal to the energy produced by the continuous operation of one megawatt of capacity over a period of time (8,760 megawatt-hours). Basis Difference (Natural Gas): The difference between the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub natural gas distribution point in Erath, Louisiana, which serves as a central pricing point for natural gas futures, and the natural gas price at another hub location (such as for Southern California). Buckets: Buckets 1-3 refer to different types of renewable energy contracts according to the Renewable Portfolio Standards requirements. Bucket 1 are traditional contracts for delivery of electricity directly from a generator within or immediately connected to California. These are the most valuable and make up the majority of the RECS that are required for LSEs to be RPS compliant. Buckets 2 and 3 have different levels of intermediation between the generation and delivery of the energy from the generating resources. Bundled Customers: Electricity customers who receive all their services (transmission, distribution and supply) from the Investor-Owned Utility. CAISO: The California Independent System Operator. The organization is responsible for managing the electricity grid and system reliability within the former service territories of the three California IOUs. California Energy Commission (CEC): The state regulatory agency with primary responsibility for enforcing the Renewable Portfolio Standards law as well as a number of other, electric-industry related rules and policies. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC): The state agency with primary responsibility for regulating IOUs, as well as Direct Access (ESP) and CCE entities. Capacity Factor: the ratio of an electricity generating resource’s actual output over a period of time to its potential output if it were possible to operate at full nameplate capacity continuously over the same period. Intermittent renewable resources, like wind and solar, typically have lower capacity factors than traditional fossil fuel plants because the wind and sun do not blow or shine consistently. Category 1: renewable energy and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC’s) from an RPS eligible facility that is directly interconnected to the distribution or transmission grid within California Category 2: renewable energy and REC’s from an RPS eligible facility but cannot be delivered to a California balancing authority without substituting electricity from another source. Category 3: procurement of unbundled RECs only or not meeting the conditions of Category 1 and 2. Category 2 Override: the pro forma model will exchange Category 2 renewables for Category 1 renewables. Climate Zone: A geographic area with distinct climate patterns necessitating varied energy demands for heating and cooling. Coincident Peak: Demand for electricity among a group of customers that coincides with peak total demand on the system. Community Choice Aggregation: Method available through California law to allow Cities and Counties to aggregate their citizens and become their electric generation provider. Packet Pg 110 1 25 October 20, 2017 Community Choice Energy: A City, County or Joint Powers Agency procuring wholesale power to supply to retail customers. Congestion Revenue Rights (CRRs): Financial rights that are allocated to Load Serving Entities to offset differences between the prices where their generation is located and the price that they pay to serve their load. These rights may also be bought and sold through an auction process. CRRs are part of the CAISO market design. Consumption: The use of energy or the amount of energy consumed by an individual or organization. Demand Response (DR): Electric customers who have a contract to modify their electricity usage in response to requests from a utility or other electric entity. Typically, will be used to lower demand during peak energy periods, but may be used to raise demand during periods of excess supply. Direct Access: Large power consumers which have opted to procure their wholesale supply independently of the IOUs through an Electricity Service Provider. DWR Bond Charge: an imposed bond charge to recover Department of Water Resources (DWR) bond costs from bundled customers. EEI (Edison Electric Institute) Agreement: A commonly used enabling agreement for transacting in wholesale power markets. Electric Service Providers (ESP): An alternative to traditional utilities. They provide electric services to retail customers in electricity markets that have opened their retail electricity markets to competition. In California the Direct Access program allows large electricity customers to optout of utility-supplied power in favor of ESP-provided power. However, there is a cap on the amount of Direct Access load permitted in the state. Electric Tariffs: The rates and terms applied to customers by electric utilities. Typically have different tariffs for different classes of customers and possibly for different supply mixes. Enterprise Model: When a City or County establish a CCE by themselves as an enterprise within the municipal government. Federal Tax Incentives: There are two Federal tax incentive programs. The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) provides payments to solar generators. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) provides payments to wind generators. Feed-in Tariff: A tariff that specifies what generators, who are connected to the distribution system, are paid. Forward Prices: Prices for contracts that specify a future delivery date for a commodity or other security. There are active, liquid forward markets for electricity to be delivered at a number of Western electricity trading hubs, including NP15 which corresponds closely to the price location which the City of Davis will pay to supply its load. Implied Heat Rate: A calculation of the day-ahead electric price divided by the day-ahead natural gas price. Implied heat rate is also known as the ‘break-even natural gas market heat rate, because only a natural gas generator with an operating heat rate (measure of unit efficiency) below the implied heat rate value can make money by burning natural gas to generate power. Natural gas plants with a higher operating heat rate cannot make money at the prevailing electricity and natural gas prices. Integrated Resource Plan: A utility's plan for future generation supply needs. Investor-Owned Utility: For profit regulated utilities. Within California there are three IOUs - Packet Pg 111 1 26 October 20, 2017 Pacific Gas and Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric. ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association): Popular form of bilateral contract to facilitate wholesale electricity trading. Joint Powers Agency (JPA): A legal entity comprising two or more public entities. The JPA provides a separation of financial and legal responsibility from its member entities. Load Data: Detailed information related to energy consumption by an individual, organization, or community. Load Forecast: A forecast of expected load over some future time horizon. Short-term load forecasts are used to determine what supply sources are needed. Longer-term load forecasts are used for budgeting and long-term resource planning. Marginal Unit: An additional unit of power generation to what is currently being produced. At and electric power plant, the cost to produce a marginal unit is used to determine the cost of increasing power generation at that source. MRTU: CAISO's Market Redesign and Technology Upgrade. The redesigned, nodal (as opposed to zonal) market that went live in April of 2009. Net Energy Metering: The program and rates that pertain to electricity customers who also generate electricity, typically from rooftop solar panels. Non-Coincident Peak: Energy demand by a customer during periods that do not coincide with maximum total system load. Non-Renewable Power: Electricity generated from non-renewable sources or that does not come with a Renewable Energy Credit (REC). NP15: Refers to a wholesale electricity pricing hub - North of Path 15 - which roughly corresponds to PG&E's service territory. Forward and Day-Ahead power contracts for Northern California typically provide for delivery at NP15. It is not a single location, but an aggregate based on the locations of all the generators in the region. Off Peak: time when demand for electricity is low between the hours of 11:00 pm to 6:59 am during the week days and 24 hours during the weekends. On-Bill Repayment (OBR): Allows electric customers to pay for financed improvements such as energy efficiency measures through monthly payments on their electricity bills. On-Peak: time when demand for electricity is high between the hours 7:00 am and 10:59 pm during the weekdays. Operate on the Margin: Operation of a business or resource at the limit of where it is profitable. Opt-Out: Community Choice Aggregation is, by law, an opt-out program. Customers within the borders of a CCE are automatically enrolled within the CCE unless they proactively opt-out of the program. Power Charge Indifference Adjustment (PCIA): A charge applied to customers who leave IOU service to become Direct Access or CCE customers. The charge is meant to compensate the IOU for costs that it has previously incurred to serve those customers. PPA (Power Purchase Agreement): The standard term for bilateral supply contracts in the electricity industry. Rate Stabilization Fund: an amount allocated into a reserve fund to be utilized to offset higher potential higher rates during rate setting. Renewable Energy Credits (RECs): The renewable attributes from RPS-qualified resources which must be registered and retired to comply with RPS standards. Packet Pg 112 1 27 October 20, 2017 Resource Adequacy (RA): The requirement that a Load-Serving Entity own or procure sufficient generating capacity to meet its peak load plus a contingency amount (15 percent in California) for each month. RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standards): The state-based requirement to procure a certain percentage of load from RPS-certified renewable resources. Scheduling Coordinator: An entity that is approved to interact directly with CAISO to schedule load and generation. All CAISO participants must be or have an SC. Scheduling Agent: A person or service that forecasts and monitors short term system load requirements and meets these demands by scheduling power resource to meet that demand. Spark Spread: The theoretical grow margin of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, having bought the fuel required to produce this unit of electricity. All other costs (capital, operation and maintenance, etc.) must be covered from the spark spread. Supply Stack: Refers to the generators within a region, stacked up according to their marginal cost to supply energy. Renewables are on the bottom of the stack and peaking gas generators on the top. Used to provide insights into how the price of electricity is likely to change as the load changes. Total CAISO Load: the total electricity need to procure from the CAISO taking in consideration for line losses. Line losses is wasted electric energy due to inherent inefficiencies or defects in the distribution or transmission system. Total Retail Load: the total electricity consumed by consumers (residential and commercial) in a given period. Uncollected Factor: a model parameter allocating a percentage of revenue as uncollectable, otherwise considered bad debt. Weather-Adjusted: Normalizing energy use data based on differences in the weather during the time of use. For instance, energy use is expected to be higher on extremely hot days when air conditioning is in higher demand than on days with comfortable temperature. Weather adjustment normalizes for this variation. Wholesale Power: Large amounts of electricity that are bought and sold by utilities and other electric companies in bulk at specific trading hubs. Quantities are measured in MWs, and a standard wholesale contract is for 25 MW for a month during heavy-load or peak hours (7am to 10 pm, Mon-Sat), or light-load or off-peak hours (all the other hours). Packet Pg 113 1 Page intentionally left blank. Packet Pg 114 1 COMMUNITY CHOICE ENERGYCity Council Study Session – December 12, 20171City Council Study Session to receive update on Community Choice Energy feasibility studies and provide direction to staff on continued pursuit of the City’s involvement in a Community Choice Energy program12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 1.Receive and file the Technical Feasibility Study on Community Choice Energy (CCE) for the Tri-County -San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara County, and Ventura County.2.Receive and file an initial feasibility study by Pilot Power Group for the intra-county region – City of San Luis Obispo and County of San Luis Obispo3.Provide staff with direction regarding community choice energy options as follows:a)Form a new CCE program; orb)Solicit proposals to identify an existing CCE program to join; or c)Discontinue or pause the pursuit of a CCE program at this time2Recommendations12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation March 2015: City Council approved resolution No. 10609 confirming the City’s participation in the exploration of CCE. Authorized participation in an inter-jurisdictional investigation into CCE. Allowed technical consultants to acquire energy usage load from the electric distribution utility for analysis in feasibility studies. 3City Council Previous Review and Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation Outline1.About Community Choice Energy2.Steps to Forming a CCE program3.Update on Efforts Since Council Directiona)Tri-County Feasibility Studyb)Intra-County Feasibility Study4.Options for Council Consideration5.Questions for City Council deliberation412/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 5Enables local governments to leverage purchasing power of residents, businesses and governments to purchase or generate power for their communities:CCE purchases the electricity, sets the rates, and PG&E continues to deliver the electricity via their powerlines, and continue to provide metering, billing, and other customer service as they do now. About Community Choice Energy12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 6Statewide CCE Developments9 operational CCE programs throughout California:More than 20 jurisdictions actively studying or developing CCEprograms.Several more programs expected to launch in 2018.Source: California Community Choice Association12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 7Snapshot of CCE Portfolios30%22%35%40%35%53%50% 50%37%36%50%6%5%36%22%25%27%41%50%23%9%6%24%44%24%12%17%14%65% 65%13%25%50%36%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RenewableLarge HydroNuclearCoalNatural GasUnspecifiedSource: California Community Choice Association12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 8Launch•Launch the program •Hire staff/vendors •Purchase power•Set up power scheduling •Develop customer support program•Establish billing systems and processes with PG&E •Develop marketing materials•Notify customers of program launchSteps to forming a CCE programImplementation•If feasible, set up implementation plan (provides detail on how program will be launched and operated)•IOU service agreements with PG&E •Form JPA. •Get plan certified by CPUC. •Begin Community outreach and educationFeasibility•Feasibility study prepared by consultant•Obtain electricity consumption data from PG&E•Determine viability of CCEprogram based on geographic and RPS scenarios.•Determine rate competitiveness with PG&E12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 9Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 10Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 11Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 12Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 13Update on Efforts Since Council DirectionCCE versus PG&E Rate Comparison, Unincorporated San Luis Obispo County Middle of the Road (50% Renewable) Scenario12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 14Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 15Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 16Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 17Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 18Update on Efforts Since Council Direction12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 19Options for Council Consideration12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 20Options for Council Consideration12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 21Options for Council Consideration12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 22Comparison of CCE options1A regional approach (multiple jurisdictions) to reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in San Luis Obispo2At this time the results of the new study are unknownSpeed CostRisk Local Control Regionalism1Form a New CCE ProgramCity of SLO OnlyMed Low‐High Med/High High LowCity of SLO + other Jurisdictions Med Low/Med Med Med MedMonitor/Join Tri‐County Effort2Slow/? Med Med Med HighJoin an Existing ProgramFast Low Low Low LowDiscontinue or Pause Pursuitn/a n/a n/a n/a n/a12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 23Questions for Council Consideration and DirectionQuestions for City Council directionYes NoA. Pursuit of Community Choice Energy (CCE)1. Continue pursuit of CCE2. Pause pursuit of CCE3. Discontinue pursuit of CCEA. Form a new Community Choice Energy program?1. City of San Luis Obispo Only?2. City of San Luis Obispo and pursue other jurisdictions?3. Continue to monitor the tri‐countyeffortandpossiblyjoinSantaBarbara?A. Join an Existing Program?1. Monterey Bay Community Power or similar?12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation 1.Receive and file the Technical Feasibility Study on Community Choice Energy (CCE) for the Tri-County -San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara County, and Ventura County.2.Receive and file an initial feasibility study by Pilot Power Group for the intra-county region – City of San Luis Obispo and County of San Luis Obispo3.Provide staff with direction regarding community choice energy options as follows:a)Form a new CCE program; orb)Olocit proposals to identify an existing CCE program to join; orc)Discontinue or pause the pursuit of a CCE program at this time24Recommendations12/12/2017 Item 1, Staff Presentation