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Home My WebLink About2/13/2019 Item 2, Cooper Goodwin, Heather From:Allan Cooper <allancoope@gmail.com> Sent:Saturday, February To:Advisory Bodies; Bell, Kyle; Johnson, Derek; Codron, Michael; E-mail Council Website Subject:1160 Laurel Lane & 2035 Buildout Attachments:802_09_19...buildout.pdf Dear Kyle - Would you kindly forward the letter attached below to the Planning Commission before their Wednesday, February 13, 2019 meeting? Thanks! 1 To: SLO Planning Commission and Kyle Bell Re: 1160 Laurel Lane From: Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo Date: February 9, 2019 Honorable Chair and Commissioners - You are reviewing a project that is proposed to be comprised of 702 residential units. Based on the City’s average household size , this project is estimated to accommodate approximately 1 1,641 residents. According to SLO’s General Plan “the City shall manage the growth of the City's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per year , on average, based on 2 thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 3 , excluding dwellings affordable to 3 residents with extremely low, very low or low incomes as deﬁned by the Housing Element”. I am urging you to look at this project in light of the following broader context. The City publishes a list of projects currently under construction on its website. This list is titled “Current Development Projects in San Luis Obispo, California”. 4 This list is not comprehensive. The list (see below) does not include projects smaller than 5 units nor does it include recently completed projects. This list includes 35 projects (2,346 units) currently under construction (shown in parentheses), 6 projects (413 units) under planning Total Population (2017): 47,541 divided by 20,334 households = ave. household size: 2.3381 1.11. Growth Rates & Phasing 2 1.11.1. Overall Intent The City shall manage the city’s growth rate to provide for the balanced evolution of the community and the gradual assimilation of new residents. Growth must be consistent with the City's ability to provide resources and services and with State and City requirements for protecting the environment, the economy, and open space. 1.11.2. Residential Growth Rate The City shall manage the growth of the city's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per year, on average, based on thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 3, excluding dwellings affordable to residents with extremely low, very low or low incomes as deﬁned by the Housing Element. This rate of growth may continue so long as the City's basic service capacity is assured. Table 3 shows the approximate number of dwellings and residents which would result from the one percent maximum average annual growth rate over the planning period. Approved speciﬁc plan areas may develop in accordance with the phasing schedule adopted by each speciﬁc plan provided thresholds established by Table 3 are not exceeded. The City Council shall review the rate of growth on an annual basis in conjunction with the General Plan annual report to ensure consistency with the City’s gradual assimilation policy. Table 3. One Percent City Population Growth Projection: SLO Land Use Element 3 2015: max. # dwellings: 21,113; anticipated number of people: 46,456 2020: max. # dwellings: 22,190; anticipated number of people: 48,826 2025: max. # dwellings: 23,322; anticipated number of people: 51,317 2030: max. # dwellings: 24,512; anticipated number of people: 53,934 2035: max. # dwellings: 25,762; anticipated number of people: 56,686 Estimated urban reserve capacity: 57,200 see: https://www.slocity.org/doing-business/doing-business-in-slo/what-development-is-happening-4 in-the-city review (shown underlined), 3 projects (221 units) under building review (shown in italics) and 2 projects (630 units) included on this list under the category “speciﬁc plans” (shown in caps). The bold type projects are exempted from the 1% per year growth cap because they are located downtown. Of the 35 projects under construction, 7 downtown projects (169 units) are exempted. Taking into account an additional category of units exempted from the growth cap, assuming 5% of the 2,177 housing units under construction has been set aside for low income, this leaves 2,068 units which should come under the 1% per year (or 5% per 5 years) growth cap. According to American FactFinder , there were approximately 20,332 housing units in the City 5 in 2017 with a margin of error of +/- 597. This increase in non-exempted housing (2,068 units) represents 10.2% of our total housing inventory. Assuming that the number of housing units under construction will take 3 years to complete, and assuming no more housing will come before the City for approval (which is highly unlikely), this would still average an increase of 3.4% per year. Now lets talk about population growth projections. SLO’s total population after completion of all projects under planning review, under building review & under construction will be 54,347 . 6 This means that according to the population thresholds established in the Land Use Element Table 3, we are more than 11 years ahead of schedule. Add to this the projected additional population associated with 1160 Laurel Lane and we will be at 55,988 which would place us nearly at the Land Use Element’s maximum population projection for 2035. Regardless of the merits of this project, and I concur with most of Mr. Lopes’ positive comments he made in his letter to you regarding 1160 Laurel Lane, you should not be looking at this project in a vacuum. Staff has asked you to review the project in terms of its “consistency with the General Plan (which includes the Land Use Element), Zoning Regulations, and applicable City development standards and guidelines”. Therefore, it is incumbent on you to make note of this gross discrepancy between our current state of affairs and the targeted housing and population projections that are memorialized in the City’s Land Use Element. Thank you! see: https://factﬁnder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF 5 6 Projected increase in population after all projects currently under construction are completed (including exempted and non-exempted housing): 5,485 Total population after completion of projects under current construction: 53,026 Total population after completion of projects under building review & under current construction: 53,381 Total population after completion of projects under planning review, under building review & under current construction: 54,347 Legend: (Rockview Moderns) Under Construction 1120 Montalban Under Planning Review The Junction Under Building Review SAN LUIS RANCH Speciﬁc Plan (South Town 18) Downtown (Exempted From 1% Per Year Growth Cap) List of projects: SAN LUIS RANCH 500 FROOM RANCH 130 Marsh & Chorro 55 (75 feet tall) 650 Tank Farm 249 545 Higuera 64 Mail Pouch South 10 956 Monterey 20 1121 Montalban 15 (Victoria & Caudill) 8 (Rockview Moderns) 8 (790 Foothill) 78 (South Morros) 53 (Pratt Ranch) 35 (Avila Ranch) 720 (The Connect) 78 (Tribune Work/Live) 43 (Fernwood Apartments) 5 (207 Higuera) 8 (Monterey Place) 29 (San Luis Square) 63 (Broad Street Collection) 32 (Twin Creeks) 94 (Broad Street Workforce) 40 (Victoria Crossing) 33 (Broad St. Mixed Use) 11 (South Town 18) 18 (Imel Ranch) 18 (1185 Monterey) 13 Laurel Lane Mixed Use 18 The Junction 69 Jones Subdivision 65 (Serra Meadows Prado) 31 (Westcreek: Noveno) 172 (Marsh & Carmel) 8 (Serra Meadows Courtyard) 36 (Righetti Ranch) 304 (The Yard) 43 (Bishop Street Studios) 34 (Ironworks) 46 (Toscano Moresco) 161 (625 Toro) 14 (Hotel Cerro) 8 (Hotel SLO) 30 (Fixlini Tract) 13 (Bridge Street Terraza) 26 (71 Palomar) 33