HomeMy WebLinkAbout03/19/2019 Public Comment, WeiserRECEIVED
MAR 19 2019
Cla _CLERK
ASSESSING VULNERABILITYTO EXTREME HEAT
IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
A Senior Project
presented to
the Faculty of City and Regional Planning
California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
-In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Bachelor of Science in City & Regional Planning
by
Julia Isabella Cannata
June 2017
0 2017 Julia Isabella Cannata
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................................
--.--... 3
a
3
Acknowledgement.......... ...............................................................................................
............ ..... ........ .. .... ..........................
ProJectPurpose...................................................................................................................................................................4
Relevanceto Urban Planning..................................................................................................................................................4
II. LITERATURE REVIEW...............................................................................................................................................................4
4
ExtremeHeat .......................... ........................................................ ....................
................................ .....................................
Vulnerability............................................................................................................................................................................5
Effortsto Mitigate Extreme Heat.............................................................................................................................................5
Bridgingthe Gap in SLO County..............................................................................................................................................5
Table 2: Plans, Tools, and Initiatives Relevant to Extreme Heat.............................................................................................6
111. METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................................................................................8
ChoosingVulnerability Indicators............................................................................................................................................8
Creatinga Social Vulnerability Index (SVI).... ..........................................................................
.................. ..............................8
Table 3.1: Components Used to Create a SVI........................ ..........»...
........... »... ........... .................................................... ....8
Table 3.2: Vulnerability Indicators and Variables Used in SVI.........................................................................
Mannino Vulnerahility with SVI Scores..................................................................................................................................12
IV. RESULTS...............................................................................................................................................................................12
Figure 4.1: Social Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in San Luis Obispo County........................................................................12
Figure 4.2: Observed Mean Annual Number of Extreme Heat Days (1950-2013)................................................................13
Figure 4.3: Expected Annual Number of Extreme Heat Days for RCP 4.5 (2018-2100).........................................................13
Figure 4.4: Expected Annual Number of Extreme Heat Days for RCP 8.5 (2018-2100).........................................................13
Figure 4.5: Area of Medium and High SVI in North Coast Planning Area..............................................................................14
Figure 4.6: Area of Medium and High SVI in North County Planning Area...........................................................................14
Figure 4.7: Area of Medium, High, and Very High SVI in Estero, San Luis Obispo, and North County Planning Areas .........15
Figure 4.8: Area of Medium and High SVI in San Luis Bay Coastal, South County Coastal, and South County Inland Planning
Areas................. ................................................................................................................................................................15
Table 4: Summary of Areas in SLO County with Medium, High, and Very High SVI relative to Extreme Heat......................16
V. SUMMARY & CONCLUSION ......................... ,............... ................. ............................. .......................................................... 16
VI. References..................................................................................---..........................---...........----...---....................................17
APPENDIX A: Census Block Group Level Data (Raw)..................................................................................................................19
APPENDIX B: Census Block Group Level Data for SPSS (Percent)..............................................................................................33
APPENDIX C: SM Output from Principle Components Analysis (PCA)....................................................................................43
APPENDIXD: Component Scores and SVI............................................. ..................................................................................48
APPENDIX E: Hazard Magnitude (Mean Number of Observed and Expected Extreme Heat Days)..........................................52
Project Purpose
The purpose of this project is to assess populations in San Luis Obispo County that are vulnerable to extreme
heat. Although there are various efforts in the State and County to address extreme heat, none specifically assess
or prepare for vulnerable populations in San Luis Obispo County. This assessment can help visualize the spatial
variation of extreme heat, guide future research, and support efforts in the County to improve emergency
response and increase adaptive capacity in specific areas of need.
Relevance to Urban Planning
Social vulnerability assessments are becoming increasing prevalent in urban planning, particularly in hazard
mitigation and climate action planning. Due to climate change's increasing impact on human life, especially
disadvantaged communities, California local governments are now re aired to re are and adapt t_o climate
_change impacts such as extrem t. As of 2017, California Senate Bill 379 requires climate adaptation and
resiliency strategies in county and city general plan safety elements. In 2018, CA SB 1000 will also require counties
and cities a. o t a general p an environmental 'ustice element" that sets objectives and policies to reduce health
risks in disadvantaged communities.
To undertake these aforementioned efforts, planners must understand the disproportionate effect climate
impacts have on certain populations. Social vulnerability assessments, like the one completed in this project,
provide valuable information by identifying and localizing populations that have fewer resources or lack the
capacity to resist the adverse health implications of extreme heat. With this information, cities, counties, and
other stakeholders can best allocate resources to improve emergency response and increase adaptive capacity in
specific areas of need.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Extreme Heat
Extreme heat is a natural hazarc!2 edicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in future years
(Cooley, 2012, pg. 4; California Multi -Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2013, pg. 342; Johnson et al, 2012, pg. 23; Luber et
al, 2008, pg. 429; Weber, 2015, pg. 231). Extreme heat events (EHE), also called heat waves, are characterized by
periods of extremely high ambient temperatures, relative to prevailing temperatures during a specific season at a
specific location (Kravchenko et al, 2012, pg. 274). Cal -Adapt, a web portal and tool on California climate change
research, defines extreme heat days as above the 98" percentile maximum temperatures, using 1961-1990 data
for the May to October warm season (California Natural Resources Agency, 2016, pg. 151). Extreme heat days are
expected to increase due to climate change, urbanization, the urban heat island effect, and other physical and
social factors (Luber et al, 2008, pg. 431; Weber, 2015, pg. 231).
Extreme heat is a significant public health concern across the nation. It is the leading cause of weather-related
human mortality in the United States (and in California). In fact, it accounts for more deaths annually than
hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes combined (California Multi -Hazard Mitigation Plan,
2013, pg. 342; Luber et al, 2008, pg. 429; Johnson et al, 2012, pg. 23; Weber, 2015, pg. 231). Besides death,
extreme heat can cause other health impairments including heat stroke, heat cramps, dehydration and
mow.- �� �ea..�:�■
electrolyte disorders, and maternal hyperthermia in pregnant woman. It can also complicate diabetes,
cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory disorders, acute renal failure, neurologic conditions, and
mental illnesses (Bao et al, 2015, pg. 7221; Kravchenko et al, pg. 276).
With relatively cooler maximum high temperatures compared to other regions, extreme heat may not seem like a
significant threat to San Luis Obispo County. However, according to research, when extreme heat events do occur
in historically cooler climates, illness or death can be as significant as warmer climates. In fact, during California's
2006 summer heat wave, the central coast had the greatest increase in emergency department visits for heat -
related illness (Kravchenko, 2013, pg. 277-278). This significant increase is due to the fact that local residents
acclimate physiologically and technologically to the certain conditions in which they live, so populations whom are
unaMlstorned to high temperatures are particularly unprepared to adapt to heat. For example, in SLO County
particularly, many homes da have air conditioning to help mitigate the effects of unexpected heat waves (Cooley,
2012, pg. 4; Kravchenko, 201 pg. 278).
Vulnerability
Social characteristics put certain populations at disproportionate risk to the negative effects of extreme heat.
Those particularly vulnerable tend to have weak social connections, lack access to opportunities and services to
prevent risk, and/or have certain health impairments (Kravchenko, 2013, pg. 277). These social factors call to
attention the concept of social vulnerability, which can be defined as the extent a specific group or population will
be harmed by exposure to a hazard (Weber et al, 2015, pg. 232). Vulnerability is generally described by the
function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity such that:
(1) Exposure + (2) sensitivity — (3) adaptive capacity = (4) vulnerability (Weber et al, 2015, pg. 232).
Therefore, a population's (4) vulnerability is the function of (1) exposure to abnormally high temperatures,
intensified by (2) the population's sensitivity to extreme heat due to socioeconomic characteristics, and (3)
moderated by certain physical or social factors that increase adaptive capacity (Weber et al, 2015, pg. 232).
Efforts to Mitigate Extreme Heat
Heat -related death and illness isrreventable concern that constitutes a greater need for planning and mitigation.
Programs to mitigate extreme heat can be included in general plans, local hazard mitigation plans, and heat
response plans (Luber et al, 2008, pg. 432). In addition, public health agencies hold responsibility to properly
prepare the community and activate protective measures in case of heat waves (such as heat alerts, providing
information on cooling centers, and so on). Table 2 presents a review of plans and tools relevant to extreme heat.
Bridging the Gap in SLO County
Although there are various efforts in the State and the County to address extreme heat, none specifically assess
or prepare for vulnerable populations in San Luis Obispo County. In addition, the County of San Luis Obispo itself
does not have an extreme heat plan. This gap calls for an assessment that visualizes the spatial variation of heat
vulnerability in SLO County. This assessment can help the County and other stakeholders best allocate resources
to improve emergency response and increase adaptive capacity in the specific areas of need (Bao et al, pg. 1221;
Chuang, 2015, pg. 605; Johnson et al, 2012, pg. 29; Kravchenko et al, 2013, pg. 278; Weber et al, 2015, pg. 235).
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Table 2: Plans, Tools, and Initiatives Relevant to Extreme Heat
Plan/Tool/Initiative
Jurisdiction Pertinent Information
Mitigation Ideas: A Resource for
Federal - Presents specific mitigation ideas related to extreme heat
Reducing Risk to Natural Hazards (2013)
(cited in California Multi -Hazard Plan, 2013, pg. 342).
Assessing Health Vulnerability to Climate
Federal - Presents the Building Resilience Against Climate Effects -.-�
Change: A Guide for Health Departments
(BRACE) framework, developed by the Climate and Health
(2008)
Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC), to help health departments prepare and respond to
climate change (pg. 1).
- Explains how health departments can undertake the first
step of the BRACE framework, which is assessing health
vulnerability (pg. 1).
California Multi -Hazard Mitigation Plan
State - Provides general education on the temperatures where heat
(2013)
illness may occur, describes their complications, and first-aid
steps to address them (pg. 342).
- Notes the importance of "thoughtful social vulnerability
analyses" and the need identify socially vulnerable
populations (pg. 342)
Safeguarding California: Implementation
State - Notes the adverse impacts extreme heat has on crops and
Action Plans (2016)
livestock production in the state (pg. 16).
- Explains importance of effective emergency planning and
outreach to reduce effects of natural disasters such as
extreme heat (pg. 61).
LRecommends expanding tree canopy to improve public
health outcomes during extreme heat events (pg. 104).
- Notes that "rural population centers throughout California
will experience an average of 40 to 53 extreme heat days by
2050. This compares to a historical average of four per year'
(pg. 150)_
- Describes CaIEPXs Urban Heat Island Index (pg. 154).
- Notes and explains the action/implementation measure of
"low -carbon or net -zero emissions strategies for keeping
people cool in extreme heat events" (pg. 165).
Preparing California for Extreme Heat:
State - Provides an Of of current climate projects for
Guidance and Recommendations (2013)
increased temperature and extreme heat conditions for
California.
- Describes health effects of extreme heat.
- Presents recommendations for state and local planners to
reduce risks and promote resilience in local governments,
emergency response efforts, and public health and health
care institutions (pg. 1)
California Health in All Policies Task Force
State C "Incorporates urbaninrecommendations fromr7
— Imdlementation Plans (2013)
Preparing California for Extreme Heat Guidance into action
plans..." (California Natural Resource Agency, 2016, pg. 236).
Urban Heat Island Indexi'orCalifomia
State - Defines and examines characterizes of urban heat island
(2015)
(UHI), and pioneers an index to measure UHI (California
Natural Resource Agency, 2016, pg. 154, 236).
Health Care Facility Preparedness
State - Describes efforts to improve hospital and emergency
preparedness for climate change impacts with private,
publip, and non-profit medical facilities (cited In California
Natural Resource Agency, 2016, pg. 154, 236).
�-:fkr
- "I"C2
The California Adaptation Planning
State - Presents adaptation strategies, recommendations, data tools
Guide: Planning for Adaptive
(Cal -Adapt), and includes general strategies to address heat
Communities (2012)
events (pg. 10).
The Caldbrnia Adaptation Planning
- Notes the disproportionate health effects extreme heat
Guide: Understanding Regional
poses on vulnerable populations (particularly agricultural
Chamcteristim (2012)
workers) and the threat heat can pose even in moderate
climates like the Central (pg. 12, 69, 71).
Cal -Adapt Tool
State & - Provides information on California climate change research,
Regional by providing web -based tools to visualize, understand, and
adapt to climate projections (cited in California Multi -Hazard
Plan, 2013, pg. 343).
Contingency Plan for Excessive Heat
State - Designed primarily to guide preparedness and response
Emergencies (2010)
activities. Also identifies mitigation actions to prevent life
loss, by identifying vulnerable populations, establishing
cooling centers, establishing advisories, and sq on (cited in
California Multi-Hakard Plan, 2013, pg. 342).
County of San Luis Obispo EnergyWise
County - Chapter seven of this county -wide Climate Action Plan
Plan (2011)
includes a goal to "minimize potential risks from climate -
related events that may compromise public health".
Mitigation measures include: "mitigate the urban heat island
effect through the plaDtirg_of urban famsmand the use of
Ir t -colored bulldin 2nd pavemerst maters is" and " identify
accessible and secure locations for public cooling centers
during extreme heat events" (Chapter 7, p. 24).
County of San Luis Obispo Local Hazard
County - Notes that extreme heat is a moderate planning
Mitigation Plan (2014)
consideration (pg.38).
- Includes a Planning goal to "Adopt strategies to enable the
County to prepare for and adjust to impacts of.climate
change through collaboration with the incorporated cities"
and a mitigation measure to "establish a countywide policy
relating to cooling centers to be used during adverse
weather events involving heat waves." (pg. 193).
DevelopingAdaptation Strategies for5an
County - Notes increased temperatures and extreme heat events in
Luis Obispo County (2012)
SLO County.
- Discusses vulnerability due to age, occupation (people
working outdoors), and social isolation (pg. 8,13,16).
Integrated Climate Change Adaptation
County - Notes that heat -related mortality and hospitalizations are
Planning in San Luis Obispo County
expected to increase, particularly for vulnerable populations
such as infants, elderly populations, and outdoor workers
including farm workers (pg. 19).
- Recommends strategies to "provide support for farm
workers and employees of the agricultural tourism industry
as the climate changes" (pg. 24).
Outsideln SLO: We Take Health and
County - Partnership between San Luis Obispo County Public Health
timate Change Personally
Department and the California Department of Public Health.
- Communicates health related effects of extreme heat and
other climate change effects, especially to vulnerable
populations. Also describes co -benefits of climate action.
County of San Luis Obispo:
County - The San Luis Obispo County of Public Health periodically
Public Health Alerts
alerts the County of extreme heat events
- Describes symptoms of heat illness, generally describes
vulnerable populations, and provides heat protection tips.
Table 4 summarizes the relative level of social vulnerability and extreme heat for communities and cities in San
Luis Obispo County. Areas of relative medium, high, and very high social vulnerability (SVI) are listed in
comparison to the relative amount extreme heat days (EHD).
Table 4: Summary of Areas in SLO County with Medium, High, and Very High SVI
relative to Extreme Heat
EHD
SVI
Medium
High
Very High
Central/South/East San Luis Obispo, South Central
Cambria, Central/South/East San Luis
Very
Grover Beach, North/South/West Arroyo Grande,
Obispo, North Pismo Beach, South
South Rural
LOW
Palo Mesa, Rural South County Inland, Blacklake,
Pismo Beach, North Central Arroyo
San Luis
Woodlands, Callendar Garret, Rural South County
Grande, North West Grover Beach,
Obispo
Coast, Rural Los Padres, Rural Huasna Lopez
North Oceano
Morro Bay, South West San Luis Obispo, Los Osos,
Cambria, East Rural Estero, Rural San
LOW
Rural San Luis Bay Inland, Rural San Luis Bay Coast,
Luis Obispo, North West San Luis
Avila Beach, Los Ranchos Edna
Obispo, North Morro Bay
Medium
Rural Nadmiento, Oak Shores, West Rural Adelaida
North Cayucos
High
East Rural Adelaida, San Miguel, Paso Robles, Central
West Paso Robles, South East
South East
Atascadero, Central and West Paso Robles
Atascadero
Atascadero
Very
Rural North Coast, San Simeon, West Rural Estero,
West Atascadero, area between
High
Templeton, South East Paso Robles, Rural EI Pomar
Atascadero and Rural North San Luis
Estrella
Obispo, South East Paso Robles
V. SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
Extreme heat is a natural hazard predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in future years. This
hazard poses significant public health concerns across the nation, as it is the leading cause of weather-related
human mortality in the United States and can significantly exacerbate other pre-existing health concerns. In
addition, social characteristics put certain populations at disproportionate risk to extreme heat, calling to
attention the concept of social vulnerability.
This project assesses San Luis Obispo County's social vulnerability to extreme heat by collecting block -level data of
social vulnerability, generating an SVI score with SPS5 software, and spatializing with GIS the resulting SVI values
compared to a conservative future scenario of extreme heat (RCP 4.5). According to geospatial analysis, there are
varying levels of social vulnerability to extreme heat in SLO County. See Section IV and Table 4 of this document
for more detail on overlapping areas of relative medium, high, and very high social vulnerability in comparison to
extreme heat exposure.
Although there are various efforts in the State and County to address extreme heat, none specifically assess or
prepare for vulnerable populations in SLO County. This assessment can help visualize the spatial variation of
extreme heat, guide future research, and support efforts in the County to improve emergency response and
Increase adaptive capacity in specific areas of need. As climate change is predicted to disproportionately harm
those most vulnerable, these efforts notably allow stakeholders in San Luis Obispo County to mitigate harm to
those whom have fewer resources or lack the capacity to resist the adverse health implications of extreme heat.
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VI. References
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Bao, J., Li, X., & Yu, C. (2015). The construction and validation of the heat vulnerability index, a
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Bergstrand, K., Mayer, B., Brumback, B., & Zhan& Y. (2015). Assessing the relationship between social
vulnerability and community resilience to hazards. Social indicators Research,122(2), 391 -409 -
Ca lifornia
91-409_California Adaptation Planning Guide: Planning for Adaptive Communities. (2012). Retrieved from: http://www.ca-
ilg.org/document/califomia-climate-adaptation-planning-guide
California Adaptation Planning Guide: Understanding Regional Characteristics. (2012). Retrieved from:
http://www.ca-i lg.org/document/califom is -climate -adaptation -plan ning-guide
California Natural Resources Agency (2013). Safeguarding California: Implementation Action Plans. Retrieved
from: http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/
California's Office of Emergency Services. (2013). 2013 State of California Multi -Hazard Mitigation Plan. Retrieved
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Cal -Adapt (2017). Extreme heat. Retrieved from: http://beta.cal-adapt.org/tools/extreme-heat
Chuang, W. C., & Gober, P. (2015). Predicting hospitalization for heat -related illness at the census -tract level:
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County of San Luis Obispo, Public Health Department (2013). Public health alert: protect yourself as the mercury
rises.
Cooley, H., & Pacifica Institute. (2012). Social vulnerability to climate change in California. California Energy
Commission,
County of San Luis Obispo. (2011). EnergyWisePlan: Designing Energy and Climate Solutions for the Future.
Retrieved from: http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/planning/CAP
County of San Luis Obispo & San Luis Obispo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District. (2014).
County of San Luis Obispo Local Hazard Mitigation Plan. Retrieved from:
http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/OES/plans.htm
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