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Housing Forum - 990 Palm Street
Council Hearing Room SLO CITY CLERK
Residential Growth Rate - Allan Cooper
April 2, 2019
Summary
Questions:
1. When will the City Council review this year's Annual
Report?
2. When will a residential growth rate (which is required
to accompany the Annual Report) be presented to
Council?
3. Why wasn't information on residential growth rate
shared with the Planning Commission?
4. Don't the citizens of San Luis Obispo (far less the City
Council) deserve to know that, regardless of what the
General Plan stipulates, we were, currently are, and
will be departing from the 1 % per year housing growth
rate (see details below)?
Adding the 1,011 units built (between 01/01/14 through
06/30/19) to the 2,068 non -exempted units currently
under construction (and presumably completed sometime
between 06/30/19 and 12/21/20) will, at a minimum,
average 2.5% growth in housing per year over the seven
year period between January 1, 2014 and December 31,
2020. The new RHNA mandates that an additional 3,354
units be accommodated into SLO between December 31,
2020 to December 31, 2028 and this would result in
a 2% per year growth rate.
Expanded Text
The SLO General Plan states that "the City shall manage
the growth of the City's housing supply so that it does not
exceed one percent per year, on average, based on
thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 3,
excluding dwellings affordable to residents with extremely
low, very low or low incomes as defined by the Housing
Element". The General Plan continues to state that the
City Council shall review the rate of growth on an annual
basis in conjunction with the General Plan annual
report to ensure consistency with the City's gradual
assimilation policy.
On February 27, 2019, the Planning Commission received
the 2018 General Plan Annual Report, staff gathered the
Commission's input and recommendations and now the
report will be forwarded to Council for final acceptance.
My first question is when will the City Council review this
Annual Report?
Though there was mention in this Annual Report of the
non-residential growth rate, there was no mention of the
residential growth rate. I drew the Planning
Commission's attention to this. I mistakenly expected that
this residential growth rate would later be included in your
Housing Update which the Council will be reviewing on
April 2, 2019 but, again, there is no mention of this
residential growth rate (i.e., in percentages) in your April
2nd staff report. So my second question is when will this
residential growth rate be presented to Council and why
wasn't this information shared with the Planning
Commission?
Permit me to explain why I am concerned about this.
On January 1, 2014 there were 17,855 housing units in
San Luis Obispo (source: American FactFinder). Since
then,: your Housing Update reported that there were 1,011
units built (i.e., a 1.1 % per year growth rate) which would
total 18,866 housing units. However, your report states
that there are presently 21,416 housing units within the
city. My question to you is where did the extra 2,550 units
come from? Perhaps the answer to this question follows.
The City helpfully publishes a list of projects currently
under construction on its website. This list is titled
"Current Development Projects in San Luis Obispo,
California". This list is not comprehensive. The list does
not include projects smaller than 5 units nor does it
include recently completed projects. This list includes
2,346 exempted and non -exempted units currently under
construction as well as 413 units under planning review,
221 units under building review and 630 units under the
category "specific plans". However, this increase in non -
exempted housing (2,068 housing units) currently under
construction represents 10.4% of our total housing
inventory. Is it possible that these 2,068 housing units
account for the period between April 2, 2019 and
December 31, 2020? If this is the case, then SLO, at a
minimum, will have averaged a 2.5% growth in housing
per year over the seven year period between January 1,
2014 and December 31, 2020.
Finally, your Housing Update report states that our new
RHNA mandates that an additional 3,354 units be
accommodated into SLO between December 31, 2020 to
December 31, 2028 and this would result in a 2% per year
growth rate.
So here is my final question to you. Don't the citizens of
San Luis Obispo (far less the City Council) deserve to
know that, regardless of what the General Plan stipulates,
we were, currently are, and will be departing from the 1 %
per year housing growth rate?
Thank you in advance for any information you may be
able to provide me on this important topic!
To:
SLO Planning Commission and Kyle Bell
Re:
1160 Laurel Lane
From:
Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo
Date:
February 9, 2019
Honorable Chair and Commissioners -
You are reviewing a project that is proposed to be comprised of 702 residential units. Based on
the City's average household size', this project is estimated to accommodate approximately
1,641 residents. According to SLO's General Plan "the City shall manage the growth of the
City's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per year2, on average, based on
thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 33, excluding dwellings affordable to
residents with extremely low, very low or low incomes as defined by the Housing Element".
I am urging you to look at this project in light of the following broader context. The City
publishes a list of projects currently under construction on its website4. This list is titled
"Current Development Projects in San Luis Obispo, California"5.
1 Total Population (2017): 47,541 divided by 20,334 households = ave. household size: 2.338
2 1.11. Growth Rates & Phasing
1.11.1. Overall Intent
The City shall manage the city's growth rate to provide for the balanced evolution of the community and
the gradual assimilation of new residents. Growth must be consistent with the City's ability to provide
resources and services and with State and City requirements for protecting the environment, the
economy, and open space.
1.11.2. Residential Growth Rate
The City shall manage the growth of the city's housing supply so that it does not exceed one percent per
year, on average, based on thresholds established by Land Use Element Table 3, excluding dwellings
affordable to residents with extremely low, very low or low incomes as defined by the Housing Element.
This rate of growth may continue so long as the City's basic service capacity is assured. Table 3 shows
the approximate number of dwellings and residents which would result from the one percent maximum
average annual growth rate over the planning period. Approved specific plan areas may develop in
accordance with the phasing schedule adopted by each specific plan provided thresholds established
by Table 3 are not exceeded. The City Council shall review the rate of growth on an annual basis in
conjunction with the General Plan annual report to ensure consistency with the City's gradual
assimilation policy.
3 Table 3. One Percent City Population Growth Projection: SLO Land Use Element
2015: max. # dwellings: 21,113; anticipated number of people: 46,456
2020: max. # dwellings: 22,190; anticipated number of people: 48,826
2025: max. # dwellings: 23,322; anticipated number of people: 51,317
2030: max. # dwellings: 24,512; anticipated number of people: 53,934
2035: max. # dwellings: 25,762; anticipated number of people: 56,686
Estimated urban reserve capacity: 57,200
4 Under City of San Luis Obispo CA click on "Doing Business", then "Maps", then "Development
Projects in Process".
5 see: https://www.slocity.org/doing-business/doing-business-in-slo/what-development-is-happening-
in-the-city
This list is not comprehensive. The list (see below) does not include projects smaller than 5
units nor does it include recently completed projects. This list includes 35 projects (2,346 units)
currently under construction (shown in parentheses), 6 projects (413 units) under planning
review (shown underlined), 3 projects (221 units) under building review (shown in italics) and 2
projects (630 units) included on this list under the category "specific plans" (shown in caps).
The bold type projects are exempted from the 1 % per year growth cap because they are
located downtown. Of the 35 projects under construction, 7 downtown projects (169 units) are
exempted.
Taking into account an additional category of units exempted from the growth cap, we will
assume that 5% of the 2,177 housing units under construction have been set aside for low
income. Subtracting out the low income units leaves 2,068 units - units which should come
under the 1 % per year (or 5% per 5 years) growth cap.
According to American FactFinder6, there were approximately 20,332 housing units in the City
in 2017 with a margin of error of +/- 597. This increase in non -exempted housing (2,068 units)
represents 10.2%7 of our total housing inventory. Assuming that the number of housing units
under construction will take 3 years to complete, and assuming no more housing will come
before the City for approval (which is highly unlikely), this would still average an increase of
3.4% per year.
Now lets talk about population growth projections. SLO's total population after completion of
all projects under planning review, under building review & under construction will be 54,3478.
This means that according to the population thresholds established in the Land Use Element
Table 3, we are more than 11 years ahead of schedule. Add to this the projected additional
population associated with 1160 Laurel Lane and we will be at 55,988 which would place us
nearly at the Land Use Element's maximum population projection for 2035.
Regardless of the merits of this project, and I concur with most of Mr. Lopes' positive
comments he made in his letter to you regarding 1160 Laurel Lane, you should not be looking
at this project in a vacuum. Staff has asked you to review the project in terms of its
"consistency with the General Plan (which includes the Land Use Element), Zoning
Regulations, and applicable City development standards and guidelines".
6 see: UUP_%llfactfinder.census.,govdacesltableservi 1 11 fLpages/productview.xhtmi?src-Cl'
7 Assume that all projects currently under construction obtained their permits 5 years ago (highly
unlikely) and that no new housing units were completed and occupied over this period of time (which is
not the case). Excluding Avila Ranch and Righetti Ranch from these calculations, current construction
would comprise 5% of our total housing inventory over the past 5 years. However, there was
approximately a 0.3% per year growth in new housing units completed and occupied between 2010 and
2017 and Righetti Ranch has already begun construction.
8 Projected increase in population after all projects currently under construction are completed (including
exempted and non -exempted housing): 5,485
Total population after completion of projects under current construction: 53,026
Total population after completion of projects under building review & under current construction: 53,381
Total population after completion of projects under planning review, under building review & under
current construction: 54,347
Therefore, it is incumbent on you to make note of this gross discrepancy between our current
state of affairs and the targeted housing and population projections that are memorialized in
the City's Land Use Element. Thank you!
Legend:
(Rockview Moderns) Under Construction
1120 Motalhan Under Planning Review
The Junction Under Building Review
SAN LUIS RANCH Specific Plan
(South Town 18) Downtown (Exempted From 1 % Per Year Growth Cap)
List of Projects - 2019 (Source: "Current Development Projects in San Luis Obispo, California")
SAN LUIS RANCH
500
FROOM RANCH
130
Marsh & Chorro
55 (75 feet tall)
650 TanE Form
249
545 Hmgue
64
Mail Pouch South
10
56 MQnterey
20
1121 Montalban
15
(Victoria & Caudill)
8
(Rockview Moderns)
8
(790 Foothill)
78
(South Morros)
53
(Pratt Ranch)
35
(Avila Ranch)
720
(The Connect)
78
(Tribune Work/Live)
43
(Fernwood Apartments)
5
(207 Higuera)
8
(Monterey Place)
29
(San Luis Square)
63
(Broad Street Collection)
32
(Twin Creeks)
94
(Broad Street Workforce)
40
(Victoria Crossing)
33
(Broad St. Mixed Use)
11
(South Town 18)
18
(Imel Ranch)
18
(1185 Monterey)
13
Laurel Lane Mixed Use
18
The Junction
69
Jones Subdivision
65
(Serra Meadows Prado)
31
(Westcreek: Noveno)
172
(Marsh & Carmel)
8
(Serra Meadows Courtyard)
36
(Righetti Ranch)
304
(The Yard)
43
(Bishop Street Studios)
34
(Ironworks)
46
(Toscano Moresco)
161
(625 Toro)
14
(Hotel Cerro)
8
(Hotel SLO)
30
(Fixlini Tract)
13
(Bridge Street Terraza)
26
(71 Palomar)
33
Total Number of Housing Units (Source: American FactFinder)
2017 18,728
2016 18,555
2015 18,044
2014 17,855
2013 17,874
2012 18,378
2011 18,458
2010 19,734
2009 19,579
Percent Growth in Housing Units Over Designated Periods Of Time (Source: American FactFinder)
2010 to 2012
0.4%
2000 to 2009
10.0%
1980 to 1999
27.5%
1960 to 1979
35.3%
1940 to 1959
18.1%
1939 or earlier
8.7%
Percent Per Year Growth In Housing Units (Source: American FactFinder)
2014 to 2017
164 units
average yearly growth 2010 - 2017 = 0.30%
2010 to 2013
244 units
Entitled but not under construction in 2019
2000 to 2009
1,726 units
average yearly growth 2000 - 2010 = 0.96%
1980 to 1999
4,988 units
average yearly growth 1980 - 2000 = 1.90%
1960 to 1979
7,227 units
1940 to 1959
2,558 units
Legend:
Gauckli Mixed Use Pro�k of Completed and occupied by 2019
Chinatown Project
Near completion in 2019
Bridge Street (Terraza)
Under construction in 2019
San Luis Square Project
Entitled but not under construction in 2019
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Planning review
C(Ae FIlswoith Project
Project abandoned
List of Projects - 2015 (Source: "Current Development Projects in San Luis Obispo, California")
Avila Ranch Specific Plan 720 units
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan 500 units
margaote ;Tea lite Plan 868--upits
Serra Meadows
166
Orcutt Area Specific Plan - Righetti/Jones
Ranch Development
370 units (or 731 units)
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
275 units
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
275 independent care apts. (one occupant units)
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units)
Turnblin (861 & 953 Orcutt)
?
Creekston (791 Orcutt)
264 units
Chinatown Project
16 units
Garden Street Terraces Project
8 units
Monterey Place Project
23 units (or 30 units)
71 Palomar Ave. Project
41 units
San Luis Square Project
ft.
48 units (or 60 units)
The Junction Project
69 units
SLO Terrace Project
17 units
Caudill Mixed Use Project
36 units
The Yard Project
43 units
860 Humbert Project
20 units
Toscano Moresco Project
161 units
Mangano Homes Tract (West Creek)
177 units x
Laurel Cre ek Project
117 units x
Broad Street Village
Wingate Homes Project
78 units x (or 142 units)
Imel Project
18 units
Colter Ellsworth Project
35 units
Fremont Square Project
21 units (or 19 units)
460 Marsh Street Project
4 units
Pacific Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC)
9 units x
Broad & 10arsh (667 Marsh)
4 units
,ran Works (36SO Broad)
46 units x
Sarna Rasa (1135 S. Rosa)
2 units
Broad St. (309913049 Broad)
8 units x
Single Family Residences
280 units
Laurel Lane Mixed Use
18 units
Bishop Knoll
14 units x
22 Chorro
26 units x
Olive Mixed Use
17 units
Residence @ Grand
4 units
Santa Pisa Street Infill
25 units
625 Toro
14 units
1521=ernni
3 units
1:35 Ferrini
5 units
h4ol lan Terrace
20 units
9 On Rockvievv
9 units
South Hills Crossing (313 South)
43 units x
Bridge Street (ferraza)
26 units
Brownstones
8 units x
Fixlini Tract
6 units
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