HomeMy WebLinkAbout9/3/2019 Item 18, CarrTo: EmailCouncil@SLOCity.org
From:
RE: Support REACH -A disaster resilience perspective & quantitative assumptions
TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE. WAITING FOR THE NEXT CODE CYCLE IS NOTA OPTION.
1 support the REACH code because we cannot wait for another 3 year national code planning cycle of incremental
improvement. According to many scientists we don't have a lot of time to turn this situation around and most life on this
planet could perish, if we don't act NOW.
Methane is exponentially more dangerous than CO2 to our climate. (Releasing 1 pound of methane into the atmosphere is
about equivalent to releasing 55 pounds of CO2.) Unburnt gas from your stove top or heater is the tip of the iceberg in
uncontrolled methane released into our environment from extraction, transmission, storage, distribution and its final end
use.
51..0 has sormofthe it htes alert r) the r°wtior)li°)i ° l i.i " h .. ii i°)l i°) !
LARGE SCALE DISASTERS ARE THE NEW NORMAL. DESTROYED INFRASTRUCTURE FROM GAS IS AVOIDABLE.
I've been on the front lines for 4 years of some our nation's biggest firestorms. Every time it happens, damaged gas lines
contribute to further destruction of infrastructure and spews immense quantities of methane into the air for days. It is also
incredibly expensive and time consuming to replace, taking many months to restore.
Why the dangers of air quality and costs from destruction and rebuild don't make headlines while our electrical transmission
lines do is a sad reality. 1 guarantee in the next big earthquake, it will not be the earth movement that will destroy San Luis
Obispo, but rather the gas lines burning unchecked all over the city for hours or perhaps even days.
The essential problem is not just
that we are tapping the wrong
energy sources (though we are),
or that we are wasteful and
inefficient (though we are), but
that we are overpowered, and
we are overpowering nature."
—Richard II••Iloinhorg, Post Carbon Institute
WMIRI 1101 .94 0 N -I
Visit Ius at. Carbon FreeSL0.org/SL0Iution
BIG CHOICES GET BIG RESULTS.
Building codes exist in large part because until codified, most build to the lowest barrier required to complete.
1'd like to help you quantify what this choice means forSLO and our planet. Below are some quantitative assumptions on
main home energy options. Personally, 1 think code is moving too slow, even with REACH, but it's a great improvement.
Savings over previous solutions of CO2
(Doesn't include savings from methane
Home Solution leakage of previous home solutions)
Induction cooktops
700
Heat -pump hot water systems
3,200
Heat -pump heating & cooling
4,000
Install solar panels
7,500
Energy battery storage systems
(Coming in future planning cycles)
15,000
Total
30,400
EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE is very difficult to modify. The mantra of complacency applies here, "If it ain't broke, don't fix
it. " The incremental improvement we will get will be very slow here and our ability to influence change is very limited. (Part
of the complacency will be due to the 38% owner occupancy of the SLO housing inventory.)
NEW INFRASTRUCTURE is what you have control over TODAY. According to the General Plan, maximum build -out of
57,000 residents. As of 2016 SLO had approximately 47,000 residents. The SLO occupancy average is 2.4 residents per home.
That means you reach capacity after another 4,167 homes are built. (1 don't know what the max build -out assumption is
determined, but it's probably based on ground water.)
1 believe it would be reasonable to make the following assumptions for the next 10 years:
• EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE: Significant change will be relatively low for voluntary compliance. Let's assume you
get 5% voluntary adoption. That's 2,350 homes, resulting in an emissions savings of 71 million pounds of carbon.
• NEW INFRASTRUCTURE: Let's assume you get 100% adoption, that's 4,167 homes, resulting in an emissions savings
of 127 million pounds of carbon.
These numbers have some limitations in their assumptions, for example they do not include an estimation of the reduction in
methane pollution, but they are reasonably useful to help you understand the gravity of acting now to support REACH, as
opposed to voluntary compliance or building to the lowest legal threshold.
EDUCATION IS WHAT WE LACK, NOT POWER OR TECHNOLOGY
When all the improvements needed to create more sustainable, healthy homes are financed over the life of a 30 year
mortgage, there is no good excuse not to do it. Seasoned experts in passive house construction say the cost to construct a
highly efficient home is same as current code homes. It's just that developers and investors don't figure in operating costs,
because that is not their concern, but energy costs, disaster resilience and air quality are concerns for anyone living in the
home.
We may need to provide more education for our decision makers so they can stand up to the financial and political pressure
of builders and investors. If you have questions, please ask. No question is too simple or too hard. If 1 can't answer it, 1
definitely know someone who can, because 1 know some of the smartest minds in this field.
The levity of your choices today are enormous not only for the future of SLO, but also for other cities looking to your actions
to guide their future choices as well.
Thanks for your sincere consideration,
Kimberly Carr