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Item 10 - Climate Action Plan Study Session Department Name: Administration Cost Center: 1005 For Agenda of: December 3, 2019 Placement: Study Session Estimated Time: 75 minutes FROM: Greg Hermann, Deputy City Manager Prepared By: Chris Read, Sustainability Manager Robert Hill, Sustainability & Natural Resources Official SUBJECT: CLIMATE ACTION PLAN STUDY SESSION RECOMMENDATION Review and discuss information on the Climate Action Plan Update and provide direction on focus questions necessary to inform next steps. REPORT-IN-BRIEF Local governments around the world are stepping up to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while also addressing issues of equity, economic development, and quality of life. A low carbon and resilient San Luis Obispo focused on people and their needs in a changing climate and economy is the organizing principle for a more equitable, vibrant, and healthy community. In 2017, the City identified Climate Action as a Major City Goal and an update to the Climate Action Plan was identified as a work task. In September of 2018, Council directed staff to develop an approach to carbon neutrality by 2035. This study session seeks Council’s feedback and direction regarding staff’s proposed approach to carbon neutrality ahead of release of a Public Review Draft of the Climate Action Plan in early 2020.1 The approach to carbon neutrality is organized into six pillars, each with a long term goal and foundational actions to be initiated or completed by 2023: Pillar 1: Lead by Example – Carbon neutral government operations by 2030 Pillar 2: Clean Energy Systems –100 percent carbon free electricity by 2020 Pillar 3: Green Buildings – No net new emissions from new buildings’ onsite energy use by 2020; 50 percent reduction in existing building onsite emissions by 2030 Pillar 4: Connected Community – Achieve General Plan mode split objective by 2030; 40 percent of vehicle miles travelled by electric vehicles by 2030 Pillar 5: Circular Economy – 75 percent diversion of landfilled organic waste by 2025; 90 percent by 2035 Pillar 6: Natural Solutions – Increase carbon sequestration on the San Luis Obispo Greenbelt and Urban Forest through compost application-based carbon farming activities and tree planting; ongoing through 2035 1 Attachment A provides a the draft GHG inventory and forecast. Attachment B provides the proposed approach to carbon neutrality. Packet Page 105 Item 10 Even with achievement of these ambitious but feasible targets, the City expects an emissions reduction gap that will need to be addressed to achieve carbon neutrality. To achieve deep decarbonization, the City will need to embrace uncertainty, engage in systemic change using the tools and nimble actions that local governments are uniquely suited to carry out, and position itself to take full advantage of future innovations, technologies, and policies and legislation that may be undertaken at the state and federal level. For these reasons, staff is recommending that, as part of the Climate Action Plan, Council commit to update and adopt a new Climate Action Plan concurrent with every other Financial Plan. DISCUSSION Background Due to decades of rapidly increasing global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and insufficient climate action at all levels of government, atmospheric GHG concentrations have reached a level that guarantees substantial and unavoidable impacts for the foreseeable future. California’s recent historic wildfires, droughts, floods, mudslides, and public safety power shutoffs are representative of climate change impacts. These impacts threaten to make all the significant issues currently faced by the city (e.g., the housing crisis, homelessness, affordability, sustainable water supply) critical, challenging, and expensive. Depending on global emissions rates over the next 30 years, temperatures could exceed a 1.5° Celsius increase over pre - industrial levels, which would result in catastrophic impacts. To limit global warming to 1.5° Celsius, annual global emissions need to decrease 45 percent by 2030, and be “net zero” by 2050.2 San Luis Obispo residents and businesses routinely rank climate change as an important issue. In 2019, thousands of people in San Luis Obispo contributed to the City’s budget process that resulted in City Council adopting Climate Action as a Major City Goal for the second straight Financial Plan cycle. As community and Council interest in ambitious climate action continues, the update of the City’s Climate Action Plan provides a platform for strategic prioritization of actions, as well as an opportunity to hear from a wide range of community members regarding their vision for a low carbon and thriving San Luis Obispo. Climate Action in San Luis Obispo In July 2012, the City Council adopted the City of San Luis Obispo’s first Climate Action Plan. The Climate Action Plan served as the City’s policy document that sets forth objectives and strategies that the City and community members can implement to achieve the adopted GHG emissions reduction target of 15 percent below 2005 baseline levels by 2020. At present, the City is on track to achieve the Climate Action Plan’s 2020 target. In the 2017-19 Financial Plan, Climate Action was identified as a Major City Goal and an update to the Clim ate Action Plan was identified as a work task. Staff has been working on the update since April 2018 and completion of the Climate Action Plan is included in the 2019-21 Climate Action Major City Goal. In September of 2018, staff presented an update on the Climate Action Plan process to Council with a request for goal setting direction. Council directed staff to proceed with updating the Climate Action Plan to articulate a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2035. 2 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Packet Page 106 Item 10 Local Government Lessons Learned About Climate Action Planning Since the adoption of the City’s first Climate Action Plan over seven years ago, numerous lessons have been learned in the evolving field of climate action planning. Most critical to this Climate Action Plan update are the lessons that cities need to focus on systems thinking, equity, local authority, and leadership potential, as outlined below: 1. Systems are responsible for the climate crisis. For decades the climate crisis has been presented as the fault and responsibility of individuals. While it is true that everyone can and should do their part in addressing the climate crisis, transformative change to a low carbon, equitable, and sustainable community requires changes to the systems in which a community functions (e.g., energy systems, waste systems, transportation systems, economic development systems, etc.).3 2. The climate crisis and social equity must be addressed together. Many of the conditions that have led to the climate crisis have also led to growing inequality.4 Leading communities are turning to a focus on social equity to ensure a just distribution of the benefits of climate action while also using the effort to give a voice to those not typically present in the decision making process.5 Low greenhouse gas emissions, equity, and resilience are the organizing principles required for communities to thrive in the 21st century.6 3. Local governments are uniquely capable of certain actions. The City level of government is uniquely situated to address issues related to land use and conservation, building energy performance, creating conditions for housing production, supporting certain economic development patterns, and prioritizing how the community’s co-owned spaces are used. For structural changes to occur, the City should focus on these unique capabilities. For other actions, the City can coordinate with regional agencies and other levels of government (state and federal) and support community partners to focus on climate action in the fields that they are uniquely capable of (e.g., academic research, entrepreneurial innovation, operational emissions of private organizations, etc.). 3 This conclusion is arrived at directly in the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance Game Changers report, “Deep, long- term decarbonization depends on transforming our cities’ key GHG-emitting systems and markets for transportation, energy supply, buildings, solid waste, and food …” (http://carbonneutralcities.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/CNCA-Game-Changers-Report-2018.pdf) and is also supported by recent climate literature including Designing Climate Solutions (Harvey 2019), and echoed in national and local “Green New Deal” proposals. 4 For a discussion on mobility and equity, see: http://greenlining.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/01/MobilityEquityFramework_8.5x11_v_GLI_Print_Endnotes -march-2018.pdf 5 For example, the City of Portland, Oregon has made equity the primary organizing principle in its climate work: https://beta.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2019-07/cap-equity-case-study-web29jul.pdf. Additionally, the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance has identified “equity” and “centering climate action on people” as a “game changer”: https://carbonneutralcities.org/centering-people-and-equity/ 6 As described in the UC Berkeley Study Advancing Equity in California Climate Policy, “In California, the road to climate policy runs through—not over—climate equity.” (http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/pdf/2016/Advancing- Equity.pdf) Packet Page 107 Item 10 4. Leadership is needed and the world is watching. As a leadership city, San Luis Obispo has an outsized role in how cities throughout the world are addressing their greenhouse gas emissions. While many climate leadership cities are larger metropolitan areas, San Luis Obispo as a small city is an inspiration for the over 17.5 million people in the US that live in cities with 40,000-60,000 residents.7 Staff are active participants in regional, statewide, national, and international networks of cities, many of which are watching San Luis Obispo closely to see what is possible. Climate Action Plan Process The climate action planning process is a five step cycle as outlined in Figure 1.8,9 The remainder of this report provides details on Steps 1-3 of the Climate Action Planning Process and seeks direction from Council on critical questions ahead of release of a Public Review Draft of the Climate Action Plan in early 2020. Figure 1: Climate Action Planning Steps 7 The population estimate is derived from the 2010 Decennial US Census. 8 The five step process is a common climate action practice and is referenced in the California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research General Plan Guidelines (http://opr.ca.gov/docs/OPR_C8_final.pdf) 9 The recent catastrophic wildfires, winter storms, and Public Safety Power Shutoffs throughout the state have raised interest in addressing climate change adaptation among staff and the public. Some cities are now choosing to prepare combined Climate Action and Adaptation Plans as a consolidated effort. In the case of San Luis Obispo, in accordance with the adopted work plan for the 2019-21 Climate Action Major City Goal, the City is taking proactive measures to ensure community resiliency and will establish a city-wide strategic approach to climate adaptation when it updates the Safety Element to include a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment, as a subsequent step to this Climate Action Plan update. Packet Page 108 Item 10 Step 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory GHG Emissions Inventory Introduction A GHG emissions inventory is an accounting and compilation of the GHG emissions that occur as the result of activity inside a geographic boundary. In its 2017 Scoping Plan, the California Air Resources Board directs local governments to the U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions.10,11 The Community Protocol includes required emissions sectors that must be inventoried including use of electricity, onsite fuel combustion (i.e., natural gas), energy used for water conveyance and treatment, use of on-road vehicles, and generation of solid-waste.12 The City and its technical consultants have updated the existing baseline 2005 inventory, developed a 2016 inventory, and has forecast the inventories to 2035 in a manner consistent with the U.S. Community Protocol. The City has also referred to the Global Protocol for Community Emissions for guidance.13 The inventory currently includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The community GHG emissions inventory update is provided as Attachment A. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast Summary As illustrated in Figure 2, community GHG emissions decreased by approximately 12 percent from 2005 to 2016 and, based on state and local action already committed to, are expected to be approximately 32 percent below baseline by 2035. The observed historical reduction is largely the result of significant decreases in the electricity sector, but also includes decreases in nearly every sector. Emissions are expected to decrease a total of 32 percent from 2005 to 2035 through existing local and expected state actions, including participation in Monterey Bay Community Power (which will begin procuring carbon neutral electricity for San Luis Obispo customers starting in January 2020), a California grid-wide transition to carbon neutral electricity by 2040 (SB 100), continued improvements to the state building code, and continued vehicle fuel efficiency enhancements. GHG Emissions Inventory and Forecast Shortcomings and Room for Improvement The GHG emissions inventory and forecast includes the mandatory sectors as outlined in the Community Protocol. Potential improvements to the existing inventory and forecast, including incorporation of voluntary sectors, include: 1. Emissions associated with consumption, including the emissions generated by local food consumption, plastic generation, shipping of goods, and the carbon embodied in building materials such as steel and concrete. 2. Emissions offset by conserving the City’s open spaces and managing the urban forest. 3. Emissions from wind-row composting of green-waste. 4. Fugitive emissions that occur as the result of natural gas consumption and direct leakage of methane into the atmosphere during exploration, extraction, transmission, distribution, and end use. 10 https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf 11 http://icleiusa.org/publications/us-community-protocol/ 12 The electricity and natural gas sectors of the City’s GHG inventory (as described in this report and provided in Attachment A) include energy used to convey and treat water. 13 https://ghgprotocol.org/greenhouse-gas-protocol-accounting-reporting-standard-cities Packet Page 109 Item 10 Figure 2. GHG Inventory and Forecast Summary Results (MTCO2e) Addressing these voluntary sectors will be important in future Climate Action Plan updates and to the City’s overall climate and sustainability ambitions; however, at this time, it is recommended that the Climate Action Plan include the mandatory emissions sectors identified in Figure 1, above, with direction to continue monitoring the development and adoption of new protocols, methods, and sources for new emissions sectors. In all cases, staff will continue to track emerging methods that may be available by 2020 and pending Council direction to return with the next Climate Action Plan update in 2023, staff will include such information in that update and thereafter. KEY QUESTION # 1 – Is Council supportive of preparing this Climate Action Plan update accounting only for the emissions sectors required by the US Community Protocol, while continuing to monitor and track emerging protocols for voluntary emission sectors. As an alternative, would Council prefer staff pause the Climate Action Plan update process until one or more of the identified voluntary sectors are inventoried? Step 2: GHG Reduction Target In September of 2018, staff presented an update on the Climate Action Plan process to Council with a request for goal setting direction. Following a presentation, public comment, and deliberation about goals that cities throughout California and the world are committing to, Council directed staff to develop a roadmap to carbon neutrality by 2035. This target goes above and beyond the 2020 target set Assembly Bill 32 and the 2030 target in Senate Bill 32. These two targets established as state law, a 2018 executive order, and the carbon neutrality by 2035 target, are discussed below. Packet Page 110 Item 10 AB 32 Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32) (Nuñez, Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006) established a target of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 with maintained and continued reductions post 2020. Given the challenge of estimating 1990 GHG emissions, standard best practice is to use 15 percent reduction of a base line year (2005) as a proxy. The City’s current adopted targets are consistent with AB 32. Using the updated 2005 baseline inventory provided in Table 1 (below), the AB32 consistent target for annual emissions by 2020 is 328,640 MTCO2e. Based on participation in Monterey Bay Community Power, the City is expected to achieve its 2020 target. SB 32 Senate Bill 32 (SB 32) (Pavley, Chapter 249, Statutes of 2016) codifies into statute the GHG emissions reduction target of at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. The 2030 target reflects the same science that informs the agreement reached in Paris by the 2015 Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aimed at keeping the global temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius (̊C). Using the updated 2005 baseline inventory provided in Table 1, the SB32 consistent target annual emissions by 2030 is 197,180 MTCO2e. Executive Order B-55-18 In 2019, California Governor Jerry Brown issued Executive Order B-55-18, which establishes a new statewide goal to achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible, and no later than 2045, and achieve net negative emissions thereafter. Carbon Neutral by 2035 For the purpose of the 2020 CAP update, staff recommends that “carbon neutrality” apply to the net emissions of the inventoried sectors illustrated in Figure 1, above, minus emissions captured through carbon sequestration efforts. As evidenced by the proposed approach to Carbon Neutrality in “Step 3”, the target is extremely ambitious, and will require that staff and the community implement foundational actions and conduct additional research to assess and monitor new developments in the ongoing and evolving field of climate action planning. Additionally, achieving carbon neutrality as a community is contingent on numerous outside factors, such as increased state funding for climate action, the federal government taking responsibility for climate action and supporting local action, and a regional approach to supporting the clean energy economy. At the same time, the City’s experience so far has been that an ambitious reduction target invites resources for the work and would put the City in position to pursue and accept funds from state and federal grant programs, as well as from charitable foundations. For these reasons, staff recommends that the Carbon Neutral Target by 2035 be adopted, that the City and the community move forward with the assumption of an increase in state support, shifting federal support, technological innovation, and that the City continues to learn and embrace the nuances and intricacies of a carbon neutrality target. Table 2 provides the annual GHG emission target in the target years for AB 32, SB 32, and carbon neutrality. Packet Page 111 Item 10 Table 1. GHG Target Summary KEY QUESTION # 2 – Does Council agree with staff’s recommendation for how to approach “carbon neutrality” as described in the narrative, above? Step 3: Develop an Approach to a GHG Reduction Target (Carbon Neutrality) As illustrated by the community GHG inventory, inventoried emissions decreased approximately 12 percent from 2005-2016. Based on initial 2017 and 2018 updated energy activity data and the reduction in electricity-based emissions from joining Monterey Bay Community Power, the community will achieve the adopted 2020 target. Although that achievement is a major accomplishment, a 2030 target of 40 percent below 1990 levels (SB 32) and the substantially more ambitious voluntary target of carbon neutrality by 2035 represent significant undertakings. The City’s approach to ambitious climate action is outlined in detail in Attachment B and is informed by statewide technical studies and guidance, community input, and the GHG inventory.14 In addition, the City worked with the technical consultant Raimi + Associates to model a pathway to achieve deep GHG reductions by quantifying the emissions reductions of various actions between 2020 and 2035. The pathway model provides one path to significant and impactful reductions and is used by the City as a guidepost for setting specific pillar goals and selecting foundational actions. Based on the technical information described above, and supported by additional staff research, consultant assessment, and discussion with community members and stakeholders, staff presents the following pillars, goals, foundational actions, required to make substantial progress in achieving carbon neutrality in the City of San Luis Obispo by 2035:15,16 14 For example, the California Energy Commissions Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future: https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=223785 15 Attachment B provides additional detail for each pillar, including “ideas for partners”, which lists potent ial actions for other public agencies, community groups, and residents to take to contribute to community carbon neutrality. 16 The greenhouse gas emissions reductions figures in this section represent provisional estimates based on projected future emissions and full achievement of the proposed pillar goal s. Should Council direct staff to pursue the proposed targets and foundational actions, staff would refine the reductions estimates with additional data and detail. The figures are rounded to the nearest thousand to illustrate the provisional nature of the estimates. Target Annual GHG Emissions Target (MTCO2e) 2005 Baseline Emissions 386,630 AB32 – 1990 levels (15 percent below baseline) by 2020 328,640 SB 32 – 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 197,180 Carbon Neutral by 2035 0 Packet Page 112 Item 10 1. Lead by Example – City government operations can achieve carbon neutrality, and in doing so, will provide visible leadership for community businesses and organizations looking to achieve the same outcome. The goal of Pillar 1 is carbon neutral government operations by 2030. Based on best available information, fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions savings of approximately 7,500 MTCO2e.17 Proposed foundational actions are as follows: Measure Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Lead by Example 1 – Municipal Carbon Neutrality Plan Leadership 1.1 – Present municipal carbon neutrality plan to City Council in 2020. Leadership 1.2 – Commit to no new fossil fuels in municipal buildings. Leadership 1.3 - Develop and implement campus wide energy strategic plan by 2022. Lead by Example 2 – City Organization Leadership 2.1 – Integrate climate considerations into City decision making processes. Lead by Example 3 – Green Local Economy Leadership 3.1 – Include carbon neutrality considerations and a focus on developing the green local economy in the updated Economic Development Strategic Plan. Leadership 3.2 – Research methods to support local contractors and labor. 17 The “Lead by Example” reductions assume carbon neutral operations and uses a working internal GHG inventory estimate of approximately 7,500 annual metric tons from operational emissions. This estimate would be refined through the municipal carbon neutral plan development process. Additionally, the municipal operations emissions are a subset of total community emissions (i.e., the electricity used in City Hall is captured in the community GHG inventory). To avoid double counting, the emissions reduction estimate of 7,500 MTCO2e for carbon neutral municipal operations is not applied to the total emissions reductions figure. Packet Page 113 Item 10 2. Clean Energy Systems – Affordable, abundant, and clean electricity coming from renewable or carbon neutral resources lays the foundation for a carbon neutral community. A commitment to resilience and local generation promotes a green local economy and a system that functions as the climate changes around it. The goal of Pillar 2 is 100 percent carbon free electricity by 2020. Based on best currently available information, it is estimated that fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions savings of 39,000 MTCO2e in 2035. Proposed foundational actions are as follows18: Measure Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Clean Energy Systems 1 – Monterey Bay Community Power Energy 1.1 - Launch Monterey Bay Community Power and achieve a 98 percent participation rate; advocate for equity and maximum local benefit. Clean Energy Systems 2 – Local Grid Reliability and Energy Storage Energy 2.1 - Work with MBCP & PG&E to develop a regional grid reliability and resilience strategy. Clean Energy Systems 3 – Natural Gas Strategy Energy 3.1 - Partner with SoCal Gas to research options for reducing greenhouse emissions associated with the existing natural gas grid. 3. Green Buildings – Building decarbonization can be achieved through building all-electric new buildings and providing resources to current building owners to support solar panel installations, a transition away from fossil fuel appliances, and energy efficiency retrofitting. Existing buildings can become cleaner while creating green local economy jobs in the building trades and through technological innovation. The goals of Pillar 3 are no net new building emissions from onsite energy use by 2020; 50 percent reduction in existing onsite building emissions by 2030. Based on best currently available information, it is estimated that fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions savings of 32,000 MTCO2e in 2035. Proposed foundational actions are as follows: Measures Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Green Buildings 1 – Carbon Neutral New Buildings Buildings 1.1 – Adopt and implement local amendments to the 2019 California Energy Code incentivizing all electric development (Clean Energy Choice Program) and review opportunities for improvement in the 2022 code cycle. Green Buildings 2 – Energy Retrofitting Buildings 2.1 – Conduct comprehensive retrofit program study and develop a strategic and equity focused building retrofit program. Buildings 2.2 Adopt building energy score program or benchmarking ordinance by 2021 and begin implementing retrofit program. 18 Note that since the City has already joined MBCP, the reductions from this action are already included in the City’s draft GHG inventory and forecast (Attachment A). Packet Page 114 Item 10 4. Connected Community – Creating a community that focuses on people and mobility and the necessary densities to support active transportation and transit investments can substantially improve community health, reduce cost of living, and reduce the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the community. For residents and businesses that prefer or require vehicles, a transition to electric vehicles provide an opportunity for cleaner and cheaper transportation. The millions of dollars that typically leave the community through fossil fuel purchases are instead retained in the community through savings and reinvestment. The goals of Pillar 4 are to achieve the General Plan mode split objective by 2030; 40 percent of vehicle miles travelled by electric vehicles by 2030. Based on best currently available information, it is estimated that fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions savings of 78,000 MTCO2e in 2035. Proposed foundational actions are as follows: Measures Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Connected Community 1 – Innovation and Coordination Connected 1.1- Research and develop an approach to a “Mobility as a Service” platform for people to easily use all modes of low carbon mobility in the City. Connected 1.2 – Repurpose the City’s Green Team to focus on 2017-19 Major City Goal collaboration and coordination in the short term, and on achieving the mode split targets in the long term. Connected 1.3 – Create new development review standards to support Community Development Department decision making processes for consistency with the carbon neutrality goal. Connected Community 2 – Active Transportation Connected 2.1 - Complete Active Transportation Plan and begin implementation. Connected 2.2 - Launch micro mobility program by 2021. Connected 2.3 – Develop a quick-build strategy to streamline implementation of priority bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure projects. Packet Page 115 Item 10 Measures Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Connected Community 3 – Parking Connected 3.1 – Establish a policy and strategic approach to leveraging existing and new parking garages for downtown residential and visitor serving uses and to allow for further implementation of the Downtown Concept Plan Connected Community 4 – Transit Connected 4.1 – Develop transit electrification strategic plan and begin implementing in 2020 Connected 4.2 – Increase headways through accelerated implementation of the existing Short-Range Transit Plan. Connected 4.3 – Explore additional innovative transit options in the 2022 Short Range Transit Plan (e.g., on- demand deviated routes, electric fleet expansion, micro transit, Bus Rapid Transit, Transit Signal Priority, etc.) Connected 4.4 – Assess feasibility of a “free to the user” transit ridership program Connected Community 5 – Housing Connected 5.1 - Develop Flexible Zoning Requirements for Downtown Connected 5.2 - Update the Housing Element of the General Plan and complete the Housing Major City Goal Connected Community 6 – Electric Vehicles Connected 6.1 - Develop and begin implementing electric mobility plan by 2021 Packet Page 116 Item 10 5. Circular Economy – “Circular Economy” is an economic system aimed at the continual use of resources and eliminating waste. Circular systems practice reuse, sharing, repair, refurbishment, remanufacturing and recycling to create a closed-loop system, minimizing the use of resource inputs and the creation of waste, pollution and carbon emissions. Whereas a traditional extractive economy can be thought of as a straight line from extraction to consumption to disposal, a circular economy looks to use 'waste' as 'food' for other processes. Diverting organic material and reducing landfilled waste supports community wide carbon neutrality by reducing methane emissions while also creating clean electricity and compost at the regional anerobic digester.19 Supporting a reduction in waste entering the landfill provides an economic benefit of postponing expansion of the local landfill. The goals of Pillar 5 are 75 percent diversion of landfilled organic waste by 2025; and 90 percent diversion by 2035. Based on best currently available information, it is estimated that fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions savings of 39,000 MTCO2e in 2035. Proposed foundational actions are as follows: Measures Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Circular Economy 1 – Organic Waste Diversion Circular Economy 1.1 - Adopt an ordinance requiring organic waste subscription for all residential and commercial customers by 2022 Circular Economy 1.2 – Develop and implement program to increase edible food rescue by 20 percent20 Circular Economy 1.3 - Develop and implement a waste stream education program for HOA/Property Managers and the commercial sector. Circular Economy 2 – Administrative Capacity Circular Economy 2.1 - Update the Municipal Code solid waste section and bin enclosure standards Circular Economy 2.2 - Develop a Solid Waste section in the Utilities Department 19 For more information, see: https://www.sanluisgarbage.com/organics/dry-anaerobic-digestion/ 20 As described in SB 1382, food rescue is the concept of preventing edible food from being disposed of and instead providing the food for use by food banks and related programs. Packet Page 117 Item 10 6. Natural Solutions– Active management of agricultural lands, rangelands, and the urban forest can remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere while enhancing the health of the City’s natural systems. The goal of Pillar 6 is to increase carbon sequestration within the San Luis Obispo Greenbelt and Urban Forest. Carbon sequestration activities include compost application-based carbon farming activities and tree planting; ongoing through 2035. Based on best available information, it is estimated that fulfillment of this goal could result in annual greenhouse gas emissions sequestered of 7,000 MTCO2e in 2035. Proposed foundational actions are as follows: Measures Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Natural Solutions 1 – Carbon Farming Natural Solutions 1.1 - Conduct Carbon Farming Study and Pilot Project at Johnson Ranch Open Space and City Farm beginning in 2020 with monitoring through 2023. If determined feasible and cost effective, apply compost to first annual 100 acres by 2023 Natural Solutions 2 – Tree Planting Natural Solutions 2.1 - Prepare the City’s first Urban Forest Master Plan that updates the existing tree inventory, identifies future tree planting opportunities and a climate- ready tree palette, as well as ongoing operations and maintenance needs Natural Solutions 2.2 - Identify and participate in partnership opportunities by 2021 necessary to plant and maintain 10,000 new trees by 2035 The six pillar goals could reduce community greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 73 percent from baseline 2005 levels by 2035. Figure 3 provides an illustration of the contribution of reductions by pillar.21 KEY QUESTION # 3 – Does Council concur with the pillars, measures, and foundational actions as presented in this report. Do they contain anything that should be removed? Are they missing anything? It should be clearly noted that full implementation of the six pillar goals leaves a gap of approximately 104,160 MTCO2e that will need to be addressed to achieve carbon neutrality (see Figure 3). This gap represents emissions that could be addressed by the federal and state governments, regional agencies, and local partners. The gap also represents the uncertainty in taking a leadership role in addressing a challenge that hasn’t been solved before. The City will need to embrace that uncertainty, commit to constant learning, engage in systemic change using the tools and actions that local governments are uniquely suited to carry out, and position itself to take full advantage of future innovations, technologies, and policies and legislation that may be undertaken at the state and federal level. 21 Note that since MBCP will be operational prior to CAP adoption, it is not shown as a stand- alone reduction, but rather as avoided emissions in the 2035 GHG forecast column. Packet Page 118 Item 10 Figure 3. Contribution to GHG Reductions by Pillar (MTCO2e) Technological innovation, clean-tech innovation, and changes to climate related policy and regulation occur rapidly. For example, it was unimaginable three years ago that the City would be part of a public agency that procures carbon free electricity for its residents and businesses as early as 2020, or that rooftop solar panels and battery prices would drop as rapidly as they have.22 Several of the state’s most successful environmental policy initiatives, including the Renewable Portfolio Standard, also had a gap between what was known at the time of adoption and eventual successful implementation. By committing to the ambitious target of carbon neutrality by 2035, the City will catalyze innovation, invite resources from funding sources and partners, and provide climate leadership. Should Council feel uncomfortable with the remaining emissions “gap”, it could direct staff to return with an alternative, less ambitious goal. For example, Council could direct staff to consider a goal consistent with the Paris Climate Accord (80 percent reduction below 1990 levels by 2050) or California Governor’s Executive Order B-55-18 (carbon neutral by 2045). KEY QUESTION # 4 – Is Council comfortable with the uncertainty surrounding the remaining emissions reduction “gap” of 104,160 MTCO2e? As an alternative, would Council prefer adopting a less ambitious target? Climate Action Plan Update Schedule The City has a proud history of community driven financial planning, as illustrated by its award winning biennial financial plans. Staff is recommending that as part of the Climate Action Plan, Council makes a firm commitment to update and adopt a new Climate Action Plan on an “every other” Financial Plan cycle. This can be done by Resolution during the adoption of the plan scheduled in Spring 2020. This allows for certainty in the update schedule, and most importantly, that it is directly tied to the financial decision making and prioritization process. The proposed update schedule is provided as Figure 4. 22 For example: https://www.kqed.org/science/1951005/the-cost-of-battery-storage-plummets-at-the-right-moment- for-california Packet Page 119 Item 10 Figure 4. Proposed Climate Action Plan Update Schedule Should Council direct staff to proceed with this update schedule, it would afford multiple benefits. First, there are numerous foundational efforts that are required to be undertaken over the next several years that will identify the potential effectiveness and feasibility of critical measures. As such, the findings of the 2020 Climate Action Plan will include high levels of uncertainty, but this will continually be refined and addressed on a set schedule. Second, tying the Climate Action Plan to the biennial Financial Plan cycle allows the CAP to focus on impactful actions and the resources necessary to be complete them on a 3-4-year time period. Third, regular updates allow for the integration of lessons learned and emerging best practices, which can proactively address the “emissions gap”, as described above. KEY QUESTION # 5 – Does Council want staff to commit to a Climate Action Plan Update schedule that is coordinated with the City’s customary Financial Plan process? Public Engagement The City has already conducted extensive outreach in support of climate action generally and the Climate Action Plan specifically. Staff will continue to engage through adoption of the Climate Action Plan and into the implementation phase of the plan. Staff has set an internal target on reaching 1,000 people throughout the process with an additional target of ensuring the demographic characteristics of the community are represented proportionately. Through events and outreach activities completed to date, approximately 750 people have participated. However, these outreach activities have not yet reached the demographically representational engagement that staff has hoped for. Therefore, feedback received from these events is not yet wholly representative of the City’s community. Staff will look to expand participation to non-traditional stakeholders in the next phase of the project. Packet Page 120 Item 10 Events Completed to Date 1. 2018 City Council Study Session: Staff presented to council on the status of the CAP Update, the results of the Community GHG Emissions Inventory, and Emissions Target Options. Council then directed staff to pursue a GHG reduction measure more aggressive than that outlined in SB 32. 2. 2019-21 Budget Open City Hall and Community Meeting: As part of the 2019 -21 Financial Plan development, the City hosted an online forum, a community meeting, and a Public Hearing. Through the process, staff received climate action feedback and ideas from hundreds of residents. 3. Workshop #1: This open-house workshop consisted of an overview presentation of the Climate Action Plan and designated time for participants to share their “big ideas” for achieving carbon neutrality. The workshop had 35 participants. 4. Open City Hall Activity #1: Staff designed and facilitated an interactive online activity where participants had the opportunity to respond to prompts, share feedback, and provide suggestions regarding the CAP Update. The activity had 71 participants. 5. Business Roundtable Meeting 1 and 2: Staff invited members of the business community to share initial ideas for how they can take ownership of business-related climate action initiatives. The meeting had 25 participants. 6. Climate Solutions Speaker Series: The City partnered with the SLO Climate Coalition to host several educational events related to climate action. Completed events include: a. Climate Solution Speaker Series 1: This kickoff event was a celebration of San Luis Obispo’s decision to be carbon neutral by 2035. The event featured booths from local organizations including ECOSLO, Monterey Bay Community Power, Sierra Club, and SLO Transit, as well as a panel discussion with Mayor Harmon and representatives from the SLO Chamber of Commerce and Cal Poly State University. The kickoff event had 250 participants. b. Climate Solution Speaker Series 2: This event was centered around a presentation by Hal Harvey—CEO of Energy Innovation, a San Francisco-based energy and environmental policy firm—discussing the effectiveness and benefits of potential policies as climate solutions. The presentation was followed by a forum where leaders from community organizations had the chance to ask H al questions and share their climate policy-related concerns and priorities. The event had 110 participants. c. Climate Solution Speaker Series 3: This was a two-part event comprised of a panel discussion on Building Decarbonization and a Building Expo featuring appliances, technologies, and materials that will be a part of the electrification process. The panel discussion had over 75 participants; hundreds of additional people visited the vendors at the Building Expo. 7. Farmers’ Market booths in October and November: City Staff hosted a booth in October and November to provide information about the Climate Action Plan update. Packet Page 121 Item 10 Upcoming Public Engagement Staff has planned a series of public outreach activities after this study session to gain community input on (a) how to best implement the emissions reduction strategies outlined in the CAP update, (b) how to successfully integrate equity into implementation of the foundational actions, and (c) areas where community partners and other agencies can commit to their own actions to help achieve carbon neutrality. While some community members frequently attend and participate in formal public meetings and events, many residents are often unable to engage due to personal and professional commitments, or because they do not feel comfortable participating in standard “town hall style” meeting formats. The public engagement strategy for the remainder of the CAP Update will consists of a combination of online, formal focus group, informal pop-up, and internal and external presentation activities to maximize opportunities for feedback and ensure that input reflects the diverse interests of the San Luis Obispo community. Planned activities include: 1. Farmers’ Market booths in February and March 2. An open invitation workshop in January with related neighborhood pop up events to allow comment and discussion on proposed CAP measures ahead of a public review draft release. 3. An Open City Hall in January providing updates on the CAP Update progress and opportunity for stakeholders such as residents, businesses and students to provide commentary and feedback. 4. Weekly social media posts detailing past and current efforts by the City related to the CAP. NEXT STEPS Next steps are dependent on the feedback received from Council. Should Council be in general agreement with the approach to decarbonization and foundational actions presented in this report, staff would proceed on the following schedule: • December 2019 – Develop Public Review Draft Climate Action Plan • January - March 2020 – Release Public Review Draft Climate Action Plan and share with stakeholders • March – April 2020 – Present Final Climate Action Plan to Council for adoption • April 2020 – January 2023 – Implement Climate Action Plan Should Council provide direction that the approach and foundational actions, as proposed, are insufficient or require additional work, staff would adjust the timeline presented above based on the amount of additional work required. Packet Page 122 Item 10 FOCUS QUESTIONS FOR STUDY SESSION Summary Focus Questions for Study Session 1. Is Council supportive of preparing this Climate Action Plan update accounting only for the emissions sectors required by the US Community Protocol, while continuing to monitor and track emerging protocols for voluntary emission sectors. As an alternative, would Council prefer staff pause the Climate Action Plan update process until one or more of the identified voluntary sectors are inventoried? 2. Does Council agree with staff’s recommendation for how to approach “carbon neutrality” as described in the narrative, above? 3. Does Council concur with the pillars, measures, and foundational actions as presented in this report. Do they contain anything that should be removed? Are they missing anything? 4. Is Council comfortable with the uncertainty surrounding the remaining emissions reduction “gap” of 104,160 MTCO2e? As an alternative, would Council prefer adopting a less ambitious target? 5. Does Council want staff to commit to a Climate Action Plan Update schedule that is coordinated with the City’s customary Financial Plan process? CONCURRENCE Public Works, Utilities, and Community Development have contributed to and concur with this report. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The California Environmental Quality Act does not apply to the recommended action in this report, because the action does not constitute a “Project” under CEQA Guidelines Sec. 15378. FISCAL IMPACT Budgeted: No Budget Year: 2019-20 Funding Identified: No Packet Page 123 Item 10 Fiscal Analysis: Funding Sources Current FY Cost Annualized On-going Cost Total Project Cost General Fund State Federal Fees Other: Total $0 $0 $0 This study session in and of itself has no fiscal impact. The fiscal impact of the Climate Action Plan update will be influenced by Council feedback at this study session about CAP priorities and direction regarding foundational actions. However, once the foundational actions are confirmed, they will be brought before Council as part of the Climate Action Plan approval process, at which point, there will be a more nuanced fiscal impact discussion. Some of the foundational actions are focused on reorientation of organizational values to intentionally focus on equity and climate, others are focused on policy initiatives that can be completed with existing staff resources. Many of the foundational actions have already been committed to through the 2019-21 Financial Plan or are carryover tasks from the 2017-19 Financial Plan paid for by encumbered funding. Several proposed foundational actions are new and would require a re-prioritization of work efforts or new budget. Where this is the case, staff will provide additional information for consideration in public review draft Climate Action Plan. Some actions may have unknown implementation costs. In those cases, the resources requested for the foundational actions will be for the initial inquiry stage and eventual implementation resources will need to be identified prior to further implementation. Attachments: a - Draft City of San Luis Obispo Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory b - Draft City of San Luis Obispo Community GHG Reduction Measure Report Packet Page 124 Item 10 Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast DRAFT A Product of the City of San Luis Obispo Office of Sustainability Drafted in 2018 Revised in 2019 PLEASE REPORT ANY ERRORS OR SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT TO CREAD@SLOCITY.ORG Packet Page 125 Item 10 Packet Page 126 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page i Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 1. Community GHG Inventory Overview ................................................................................. 1 2005 Community GHG Inventory ..................................................................................... 2 2005 Updated Community GHG Inventory ....................................................................... 2 2016 Community GHG Inventory ..................................................................................... 3 Progress Toward 2020 Target ......................................................................................... 4 Progress to State GHG Reduction Targets ...................................................................... 4 2. Community Energy .............................................................................................................. 6 Community Energy Sector Overview ............................................................................... 6 Updated Inventory Data and Methods .............................................................................. 6 Total Energy GHG Emissions .........................................................................................12 3. Transportation .....................................................................................................................14 Transportation Sector Overview ......................................................................................14 Updated Inventory Data and Methods .............................................................................14 Total Transportation GHG Emissions ..............................................................................15 4. Solid Waste ..........................................................................................................................16 Solid Waste Sector Overview ..........................................................................................16 Updated Inventory Data and Methods .............................................................................16 Total Solid Waste GHG Emissions .................................................................................21 5. Forecast ...............................................................................................................................23 6. Areas for Improvement .......................................................................................................25 List of Abbreviations ..............................................................................................................27 Packet Page 127 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page ii List of Tables Table 1.1. San Luis Obispo Community GHG Emissions (2005) ................................................ 2 Table 1.2. 2005 update baseline GHG emissions. ..................................................................... 3 Table 1.3. 2016 GHG emissions. ............................................................................................... 4 Table 1.4. GHG emissions, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). .................................................................... 4 Table 1.5. Progress to AB32 and SB 32 target (MTCO2e). ......................................................... 5 Table 2.1. Community electricity activity data, 2005-2016 (kWh). .............................................. 6 Table 2.2. Electricity conversion factor (MTCO2e/kWh). ............................................................. 7 Table 2.3. Community electricity GHG estimates, 2006-2015 (MTCO2e). .................................. 8 Table 2.4. Community natural gas activity data, 2005-2016 (Therms). ......................................10 Table 2.5. Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP) natural gas carbon dioxide equivalent. .................................................................................................................................................11 Table 2.6. Community Natural Gas GHG estimates, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). .............................11 Table 2.7. Energy GHG emissions, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). .......................................................12 Table 3.1. 2005 and 2016 VMT estimates. ................................................................................14 Table 4.1. City solid waste activity data, 2008-2016 (Disposal Ton). .........................................16 Table 4.2. Total percent of waste degradable based on waste type. .........................................18 Table 4.3. Conversion to metric tons of methane. .....................................................................19 Table 4.4. Recorded methane capture rates from Cold Canyon Landfill. ...................................19 Table 4.5. Percent of emissions reaching the atmosphere. .......................................................20 Table 4.6. Disposed solid waste conversion factor with Fifth Assessment Report global warming potential (MTCO2e/Disposal Ton). .............................................................................................20 Table 4.7. Total solid waste disposed emissions (MTCO2e). .....................................................21 List of Figures Figure 2.1. Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/kWh). ............................................................. 8 Figure 2.2. Total community electricity activity data and GHG estimates, 2006-2016. ................ 9 Figure 2.3. Energy GHG emissions, 2005-2016. .......................................................................13 Figure 4.1. Total City solid waste (Disposal Ton). .....................................................................17 Packet Page 128 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 1 Introduction A greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory is a comprehensive measure of GHG emissions that have occurred as the result of activity in a jurisdiction or a geographic area in a calendar year. It is common to prepare two separate GHG inventories, one for local government operations only and the other for community-wide emissions. Though inventories are custom to their jurisdiction, local government GHG inventories typically include the accounting of emissions from the buildings, facilities, and vehicles operated by a local government, while community-wide inventories typically include accounting of emissions from all businesses, residents, and transportation within the jurisdictional boundary. This report focuses on community-wide GHG emissions. Section 1 of this report provides an overview of the community GHG emissions inventories and forecasts. Sections 2-5 provide detailed summaries of the inventoried GHG emissions sectors. Section 6 provides a detailed description of the GHG forecasts and a discussion of the City’s progress toward its GHG reduction targets. Section 7 concludes the report with a description of areas for improvement. 1. Community GHG Inventory Overview In 2012, the City of San Luis Obispo (City) adopted the City of San Luis Obispo Climate Action Plan (CAP) to achieve GHG emission reductions consistent with state law and City General Plan policy. The foundation of the CAP is the 2005 baseline GHG inventory (completed in 2009), which estimates the GHG emissions that occurred as the result of activity in the city. In the 2017 California Climate Change Scoping Plan, the California Air Resources Board notes, “In developing local plans, local governments should refer to ‘The U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions’ (community protocol), which provides detailed guidance on completing a GHG emissions inventory at the community scale in the United States – including emissions from businesses, residents, and transportation.” The City prepared a 2016 comprehensive community-wide and local government GHG emissions inventory update compliant with all relevant protocols and guidance documents including the U.S. Community Protocol, Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP), the Global Protocol for Community Scale GHG Emissions (GPC), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National GHG Inventories. The community-wide GHG inventory is the foundation for the Climate Action Plan Update, which is expected to be adopted in 2020. In the 2017 Scoping Plan, the California Air Resources Board directs local governments to the U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Community Protocol includes required emissions sectors that must be inventoried including use of electricity, onsite fuel combustion (i.e., natural gas), energy used for water conveyance and treatment, use of on-road vehicles, and generation of solid-waste.i This report presents a i i The electricity and natural gas sectors of the City’s GHG inventory (as described in this report and provided in Attachment A) include energy used to convey and treat water. Packet Page 129 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 2 summary of the updated 2005 GHG emissions and details the 2016 community GHG inventory completed in 2018 and revised in 2019.ii Greenhouse gas emissions are not measured directly. They are modeled and estimated by multiplying data about some activity (e.g., the amount of electricity consumed, the number of miles travelled in fossil fuel powered vehicles, the tons of solid waste sent to the landfill, etc.) by the greenhouse gas emission content of a typical unit of that activity (e.g., the average greenhouse gas emissions content per therm of combusted natural gas). This inventory accounts for three common greenhouse gasses: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20). Since methane and nitrous oxide are substantially more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide (86 and 265 times more potent, respectively), the emissions modeled from their release into the atmosphere are multiplied by their respective potential to warm the atmosphere relative to CO2. The common reporting unit for greenhouse gas emissions is “Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalence”, or MTCO2e. 2005 Community GHG Inventory In 2009, the community’s total 2005 baseline GHG emissions were estimated to be 264,237 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e). The inventory included energy (residential and nonresidential), transportation, and waste sectors. Of the three sectors, transportation contributed the largest amount of GHG emissions with estimated emissions of 132,142 MTCO 2e or 50 percent of the total City emissions. The second largest sector was commercial and industrial energy use with estimated emissions of 57,950 or 22 percent of the total City emissions. The commercial and industrial energy and waste sectors made up the remaining 28 percent of the total city emissions. Table 1.1 presents the original estimated 2005 GHG emissions by sector and their percent of total emissions. Table 1.1. San Luis Obispo Community GHG Emissions (2005) Community Sector MTCO2e Percent of Total Transportation 132,142 50% Nonresidential Energy 57,950 22% Residential Energy 55,377 21% Waste 18,768 7% Total 246,237 100% Source: City of San Luis Obispo Climate Action Plan (2009) 2005 Updated Community GHG Inventory To assess climate action progress, the City updated the 2005 baseline inventory for consistency with current protocols and best practices. This section provides updated GHG emissions data estimates for the baseline year of 2005 to allow for an “apples to apples” comparison to the 2016 GHG inventory. The City updated the 2005 GHG inventory to reflect an updated scientific understanding of how different greenhouse gasses contribute to global warming, to include a ii Due to lagging data availability, 2016 is the most recent year for complete GHG inventory data. Annual inventory updates will occur beginning in 2020. Where more current information is available by sector, it is provided in this report. Packet Page 130 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 3 more accurate assessment of transportation related emissions, and to respond to changes to data privacy rules and collection methods that affect how data is provided. Table 1.2 provides the updated 2005 baseline GHG emissions inventory with updated total GHG emissions of 386,630 MTCO2e. Similar to the original 2005 inventory, the largest sector contributing to the City’s total GHG emissions was transportation with an estimated emissions total of 225,390 MTCO2e or 58 percent of the City’s total.iii The commercial and industrial energy sector was the second largest sector contributing a total of 58,050 MTCO2e GHG emissions or 15 percent of the City’s total. The remaining sectors of residential energy and solid waste made up the remaining 28 percent of the City’s total emissions in 2005. Table 1.2. 2005 update baseline GHG emissions. Sector Subsector Subsector MTCO2e Sector MTCO2e Sector Percent of Total Transportation On-Road Transportation 225,390 225,390 58% Nonresidential Energy Commercial/Industrial electricity 35,510 58,050 15% Commercial/Industrial natural gas 22,540 Residential Energy Residential electricity 20,870 55,450 14% Residential natural gas 34,580 Solid Waste Community-wide municipal solid waste disposal tons 47,740 47,740 12% Total 386,630 100% 2016 Community GHG Inventory In 2018, the City prepared a community-wide inventory of GHG emissions for the 2016 calendar year. Table 1.3 provides the 2016 GHG emissions inventory results. In 2016, San Luis Obispo’s total GHG emissions were estimated to be 339,290 MTCO2e. As in 2005, transportation was the largest contributor to the City’s total GHG emissions with an estimated 212,980 MTCO2e or 63 percent of the City’s total emissions. Commercial and Industrial energy was the second largest sector with GHG emissions of 44,270 MTCO2e or 13 percent of the City’s total emissions. The sectors of residential energy and solid waste account for the remaining 26 percent of the City’s total 2016 GHG emissions. iii Section 3 provides an explanation for the significant increase in estimated transportation emissions in the revised 2005 baseline over the original draft. Packet Page 131 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 4 Table 1.3. 2016 GHG emissions. Sector Subsector Subsector MTCO2e Sector MTCO2e Sector Percent of Total Transportation On-Road Transportation 212,980 212,980 63% Nonresidential Energy Commercial/Industrial electricity 22,050 44,270 13% Commercial/Industrial natural gas 22,220 Residential Energy Residential electricity 10,320 39,410 11% Residential natural gas 29,090 Solid Waste Community-wide municipal solid waste disposal tons 42,630 42,630 13% Total 339,290 100% Progress Toward 2020 Target Table 1.4 provides a comparison overview of emissions from baseline year 2005 to 2016 to show the City’s progress toward its target to reduce GHG emissions 15 percent below 2005 emission levels. Over the eleven-year period, emissions were estimated to have dropped by 13 percent. The most significant changes occurred in the energy, solid waste, and off-road sectors. • Energy emissions dropped by approximately 21 percent and reflects a significant change in the carbon intensity of grid consumed electricity, a substantial increase in rooftop renewable energy systems, and investment in energy efficiency. • Solid waste emissions decreased by approximately 11 percent due to a decrease in the amount of solid waste produced by San Luis Obispo residents and businesses. Section 2 provides a detailed report for each GHG emissions sector and the changes in emissions from each sector from 2005 to 2016. Table 1.4. GHG emissions, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). Sector 2005 2016 Percent Change Transportation 225,390 212,980 -6% Nonresidential Energy 58,050 44,270 -24% Residential Energy 55,450 39,410 -29% Solid Waste 47,740 42,630 -11% Total 386,630 339,290 -12% Progress to State GHG Reduction Targets The key drivers for updating the community GHG inventory are 1) to assess progress toward the City’s GHG emissions reduction target, and 2) to establish the foundation for the Climate Action Plan update. Consistent with Assembly Bill (AB) 32, the City’s current adopted target is to achieve a 15 percent reduction below baseline emissions by 2020. Since the baseline inventory was Packet Page 132 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 5 updated through this inventory process, resulting in a slightly increased baseline, a new target must be calculated. As noted in Table 1.5 and Figure 1.2, a 15 percent reduction in baseline emissions is 328,640 MTCO2e from the updated baseline year emissions of 386,630 MTCO2e. The 2016 emissions estimate of 339,290 MTCO2e represents a 12 percent reduction in GHG emissions, notable progress toward the 2020 target. Since adoption of the City’s CAP in 2012, the state adopted a 2030 target through Senate Bill (SB) 32. If the City adopts a 2030 goal that matches the state target of reducing GHG emissions 40 percent below the 2020 target levels, the target for San Luis Obispo would be 197,180 MTCO2e. In September of 2018, Council directed staff to develop a climate action plan with a reduction target of carbon neutrality by 2035. A carbon neutrality by 2035 target would require achieving a far greater reduction than the SB32 requirements by 2030. Table 1.5. Progress to AB32 and SB 32 target (MTCO2e). Year Emissions 2005 (Updated) 386,630 2016 339,290 2020 Target (Updated) 328,640 2030 Target (40% below 1990) 197,180 2035 Target (Carbon Neutral) 0 Figure 1.2. Progress to AB32, SB 32, and Carbon Neutrality target. 386,630 339,290 328,640 197,180 00 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2005 2016 2020 Target (Updated) 2030 Target (40% below 1990) 2035 Target (Carbon Neutral) Packet Page 133 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 6 2. Community Energy Community Energy Sector Overview This section presents the GHG emissions for the energy sector, specifically emissions generated from residential and non-residential energy use that has occurred within City limits. This section presents the updated 2005 GHG emissions along with updated emissions for 2016. Updated Inventory Data and Methods The update to the 2005 inventory for the energy sector incorporates changes in scientific understanding of how different greenhouse gasses contribute to global warming and changes to data privacy rules that affect how energy data is retained and provided. This section provides updated electricity and natural gas activity data and emissions estimates for the baseline year of 2005, as well as electricity and natural gas activity data and GHG emissions estimates for years 2005 through 2016. Electricity Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) Company provides electric service to the community and offers community electricity data to local agencies through the PG&E Green Community Portal. The electricity data (presented in kilowatt-hours, or kWh) in Table 2.1 is separated between residential and non-residential uses, which is the finest resolution possible to prevent data from being removed for privacy purposes. Table 2.1. Community electricity activity data, 2005-2016 (kWh). Year Residential Nonresidential Total 2005 93,045,220 158,267,695 251,312,915 2006 94,844,802 165,562,683 260,407,485 2007 92,479,221 170,259,426 262,738,647 2008 91,007,229 176,783,866 267,791,095 2009 89,252,248 183,654,370 272,906,618 2010 87,910,124 218,185,988 306,096,112 2011 86,239,267 172,742,643 258,981,910 2012 85,773,964 172,045,211 257,819,175 2013 84,492,752 171,842,797 256,335,549 2014 78,932,662 171,846,749 250,779,411 2015 78,069,529 170,606,678 248,676,207 2016 76,376,280 163,204,691 239,580,971 2017 76,543,278 165,277,531 241,820,809 2018 74,076,694 159,958,964 234,035,658 Packet Page 134 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 7 Nonresidential electricity use includes commercial, governmental, agricultural, and industrial usage. From 2005 to 2016, residential electricity usage decreased by 18 percent and non- residential electricity consumption increased approximately 3 percent. Between 2005 and 2016, total electricity use decreased by 5 percent. Table 2.1 includes activity data for 2017 and 2018 for informational purposes. Data for both years indicate a continuing downward trend. The 18 percent decrease in residential electricity usage may be due to low residential growth, a significant increase in residential renewable energy installations, increases in energy efficiency investments, and overall trends toward conservation. To calculate GHG emissions, an emissions factor is applied to the activity data. Table 2.2 shows the electricity emissions factors for the three major greenhouse gasses occurring as the result of electricity use in the city. PG&E staff provided CO2 emissions factors via the Green Community Portal data request in 2018 and 2019. In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2), small amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are released in the electricity generation process. CH4 and N2O emissions factors are provided by PG&E’s third-party-verified GHG inventory. Variability of the emissions factors occur primarily due to two factors: 1) fluctuations in hydro power production as the result of precipitation variability, and 2) increasing renewable energy sources in PG&E’s power portfolio. CO2 is the most commonly referenced GHG, however, numerous gasses have greenhouse characteristics. Methane and nitrous oxide are commonly accounted for in GHG inventories. These gasses have a greater global warming potential; CH4 traps approximately 86 times as much heat as CO2 over a 20-year period and N2O traps approximately 265 times as much heat. To account for these differences, a factor is applied to the gasses emissions to calculate aCO2 equivalence. Table 2.2 provides the emissions factors for 2005 through 2018. Due to changes in PG&E’s energy portfolio (and particularly an increase in renewable energy supplies), the 2016 emissions factor is approximately 40 percent lower than the 2005 factor. Figure 2.1 illustrates the changes in MTCO2e/kWh factors from 2005 to 2016. Table 2.2. Electricity conversion factor (MTCO2e/kWh). Year kWh/MTCO2e 2005 0.000224 2006 0.000208 2007 0.000290 2008 0.000292 2009 0.000262 2010 0.000203 2011 0.000179 2012 0.000203 2013 0.000195 2014 0.000198 2015 0.000185 2016 0.000135 2017 0.000097 2018 0.000134 Packet Page 135 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 8 Figure 2.1. Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/kWh). Table 2.3 provides the GHG emissions from electricity use in the city by residential and nonresidential subsectors from 2005 to 2016. During this time, electricity related residential GHG emissions decreased by approximately 30 percent, while nonresidential electricity emissions decreased by approximately 12 percent. Overall emissions decreased approximately 18 percent over the same period. Table 2.3. Community electricity GHG estimates, 2006-2015 (MTCO2e). Year Residential Nonresidential Total 2005 20,870 35,510 56,380 2006 19,840 34,620 54,460 2007 26,880 49,490 76,370 2008 26,650 51,770 78,420 2009 23,450 48,240 71,690 2010 17,910 44,440 62,350 2011 15,530 31,120 46,650 2012 17,480 35,050 52,530 2013 16,520 33,600 50,120 2014 15,710 34,210 49,920 2015 14,480 31,640 46,120 2016 10,320 22,050 32,370 2017 7,430 16,040 23,470 2018 9,940 21,470 31,410 0.000000 0.000050 0.000100 0.000150 0.000200 0.000250 0.000300 0.000350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016MTCO2e/kWhYear Packet Page 136 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 9 Figure 2.2 illustrates GHG and kWh activity data trends between 2005 and 2016 on the same chart. It is important to note that while overall electricity use has been steadily decreasing, GHG emissions have been more variable due to changes in PG&E’s power portfolio and the related carbon intensity of the electricity it supplies. Figure 2.2. Total community electricity activity data and GHG estimates, 2006-2016. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 kWh MTCO2e Packet Page 137 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 10 Natural Gas – Direct Emissions Natural gas is primarily composed of methane and includes very small amounts of ethane, propane, butane, pentane, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide. When natural gas is combusted, most of the methane becomes carbon dioxide and water. Traditionally, greenhouse gas emissions inventories account for the emissions that occur as the result of the onsite combustion of natural gas. Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) provides natural gas utility services in the city. Table 2.4 provides the natural gas activity data in therms from 2005-2016 separated by residential and nonresidential uses. Non-residential use combines commercial and industrial use. Table 2.4. Community natural gas activity data, 2005-2016 (Therms). Year Residential Nonresidential Total 2005 6,460,870 4,211,790 10,672,660 2006 6,643,410 4,501,180 11,144,590 2007 6,702,810 4,532,760 11,235,570 2008 -- -- -- 2009 -- -- -- 2010 -- -- -- 2011 -- -- -- 2012 -- -- -- 2013 -- -- -- 2014 5,275,340 3,987,264 9,262,604 2015 5,068,160 3,952,562 9,020,722 2016 5,435,586 4,151,275 9,586,861 2017 5,667,638 4,289,700 9,957,338 2018 5,621,586 4,227,571 9,849,157 Note: 2008-2013 data is not available. As a company policy, SoCalGas only retains community natural gas data through 2014, which means the data in the original 2005 baseline inventory must be used in conjunction with the data provided via an Energy Data Request Portal request submitted by City staff in 2017. Since SoCalGas cannot confirm the 2005 inventory data, the comparison in natural gas consumption in the baseline year and years 2014-2017 should be observed with caution. The natural gas data provided in Table 2.4 shows a 16 percent decrease in residential therms and a 1 percent increase in non-residential usage between 2005 and 2016. Combined, the natural gas sector has a net decrease of 10 percent. Table 2.4 also includes 2017 and 2018 data for informational purposes and illustrate a slight increase in natural gas use. Just as with electricity, GHG emissions are estimated from activity data by applying an emission coefficient to the activity data. Table 2.5 shows the emission coefficient for converting therms of natural gas combusted on-site to MTCO2e. Unlike electricity, the inventory assumes no changes in the carbon intensity of combusting natural gas in any given year, as the chemical composition of combusted natural gas does not substantially vary from year to year. Packet Page 138 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 11 Table 2.5. Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP) natural gas carbon dioxide equivalent. Greenhouse Gas MTCO2e/Therm CO21 0.005310 CH41 0.000043 N2O1 0.000003 CO2e2 0.005320 Table 2.6 provides GHG emissions estimates in MTCO2e for natural gas consumption in the city from 2005-2016. As noted in the natural gas activity data, there was a 16 percent decrease in MTCO2e for residential and a 1 percent decrease for non-residential sectors with a total decrease in natural gas-related emissions of 10 percent. Table 2.6. Community Natural Gas GHG estimates, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). Year Residential Nonresidential Total 2005 34,580 22,540 57,120 2006 35,550 24,090 59,640 2007 35,870 24,260 60,130 2008 -- -- -- 2009 -- -- -- 2010 -- -- -- 2011 -- -- -- 2012 -- -- -- 2013 -- -- -- 2014 28,230 21,340 49,570 2015 27,120 21,150 48,270 2016 29,090 22,220 51,310 2017 30,330 22,960 53,290 2018 30,080 22,620 52,700 Note: 2008-2013 data is not available. Natural Gas – Fugitive Emissions Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and 86 times stronger than carbon dioxide over a 20-year time period in the atmosphere. As more is learned about the total natural gas system leakage rate from well head, through the transmission system, to the distributions system, and at the end use, it is becoming clear that fugitive methane emissions from the usage of natural gas is a critical component of the climate crisis. Staff is currently working with technical experts to identify a defensible method for estimating these emissions. Although not included in this report, they will likely be included prior to the Climate Action Plan update that will be adopted in 2020. Packet Page 139 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 12 Total Energy GHG Emissions Table 2.7 and Figure 2.3 show the total energy-related GHG emissions separated by energy type and subsector. The residential energy subsector saw a 28 percent decrease in emissions between 2005 and 2016. The nonresidential subsector emissions decreased by 24 percent. Overall, energy GHG emissions dropped by 26 percent over the 11-year period. Note that Figure 2.3 provides total energy sector emissions with a dark line; the dashed line indicates a total emissions estimate necessitated by SoCalGas’s inability to provide historical data. Table 2.7. Energy GHG emissions, 2005-2016 (MTCO2e). Year Residential Nonresidential Total Electricity Natural Gas Electricity Natural Gas Res. Nonres. Total 2005 20,870 34,580 35,510 22,540 55,450 58,050 113,500 2006 19,840 35,550 34,620 24,090 55,390 58,710 114,100 2007 26,880 35,870 49,490 24,260 62,750 73,750 136,500 2008 26,650 -- 51,770 -- -- -- -- 2009 23,450 -- 48,240 -- -- -- -- 2010 17,910 -- 44,440 -- -- -- -- 2011 15,530 -- 31,120 -- -- -- -- 2012 17,480 -- 35,050 -- -- -- -- 2013 16,520 -- 33,600 -- -- -- -- 2014 15,710 28,230 34,210 21,340 43,940 55,550 99,490 2015 14,480 27,120 31,640 21,150 41,600 52,790 94,390 2016 10,320 29,090 22,050 22,220 39,410 44,270 83,680 2017 7,430 30,330 16,040 22,960 37,760 39,000 76,760 2018 9,940 30,080 21,470 22,620 40,020 44,090 84,110 Packet Page 140 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 13 Figure 2.3. Energy GHG emissions, 2005-2016. 113,500 83,680 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Packet Page 141 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 14 3. Transportation Transportation Sector Overview This section presents the GHG emissions for the transportation sector and includes emissions from all on-road trips (including cars, trucks, buses, etc.) that have occurred within City limits. This section presents the updated 2005 GHG emissions along with updated emissions for 2016. Updated Inventory Data and Methods This section provides updated activity data and emissions estimates for baseline year 2005 and activity data and emissions estimates for 2016. Since the 2005 baseline inventory was completed in 2009, the state has updated emissions factors and legislation on fuel economy standards. Additionally, the City has adopted a transportation model that more accurately models the vehicle miles travelled in, to, and from city boundaries. The original 2005 inventory used the “geographic system boundary” method which considers transportation activity occurring solely within city boundaries, regardless of where a trip’s destination begins or ends. This method included emissions from vehicles that were travelling through city boundaries but did not account for any of “outside of city boundary” miles that occurred from trips that originated or ended in the city. In 2019, the City was able to use its own “origin-destination” transportation model to estimate the vehicle miles for trips that began and ended in the city, trips that began outside the city and ended in the city, trips that began in the city and ended outside the city, and trips that passed through the city without stopping. Consistent with the preferred GPC accounting method, the updated inventory includes 100 percent of internal trip miles, 50 percent of the miles for trips that start or end in the city, and zero percent of the miles that are from vehicles passing through the city. The updated transportation model currently only estimates vehicle miles travelled for calendar year 2016. To estimate baseline 2005 emissions, the City replicated the 2005 “geographic system boundary” model with 2016 data and found a 3 percent increase in vehicles miles travelled. Assuming the two methods would capture the same scale and direction of change between 2005 and 2016, 2005 origin-destination VMT was estimated by reducing the 2016 VMT by 3 percent. Table 3.1 reports the 2005 and 2016 VMT estimates. Table 3.1. 2005 and 2016 VMT estimates. Measure 2005 2016 Annual VMT 461,452,446 475,634,980 Source: City of San Luis Obispo, Public Works Department, The origin destination model is preferred to the geographic model because it allows the City to understand where trips are occurring. The new method identifies a key finding: over 80 percent of community VMT occurred as the result of regional trips (e.g., trips to the city from outside the city or trips from the city to areas outside the city). Packet Page 142 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 15 Vehicle miles traveled estimates for both years were converted to GHG emissions using the 2014 Emissions Factor (EMFAC) model. EMFAC represents the state’s current understanding of motor vehicle travel activities and their associated emission levels. EMFAC 2014 is the latest U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved motor vehicle emission model that assesses emissions from on-road vehicles including cars, trucks, and buses in California. The City used EMFAC 2014 to estimate emissions factors for this updated report. Table 3.2 provides the VMT and associated GHG emissions for each vehicle class in San Luis Obispo County for 2005 and 2016. GHG emissions were estimated using the California Air Resources Board (CARB) EMFAC 2014 tool. Using VMT as inputs, EMFAC 2014 generated VMT and CO2 emission results for both 2005 and 2016 for each type of vehicle common in San Luis Obispo County. The City used this information to generate a CO2/VMT emissions factor specific to San Luis Obispo County, reflecting the unique balance of different vehicle types, vehicle ages, and vehicle fuels used county-wide. EMFAC 2014 does not model CH4 and N2O emissions. The standard practice is to multiply CO2 emissions factors by 100/95 (approximately 1.05) to convert CO2 emissions to CO2e. As the emissions factor generated by EMFAC is in tons of CO2/VMT, the City also converted the units of this factor to metric tons. The City then applied this converted emissions factor to the total City VMT given in Table 3.1. This resulted in the total annual greenhouse gas emissions. Total Transportation GHG Emissions Table 3.2 shows that as VMT was modelled to increase from 2005 to 2016 by 3 percent, the total GHG emissions from on-road transportation decreased by approximately 6 percent. The decrease in GHG emissions is attributed to state and federal fuel efficiency standards, low carbon fuel standards, and an increasingly efficient overall fleet of vehicles (including an increased uptake of electric, hybrid, and high efficiency vehicles) within the city that is resulting in the emissions decline, despite an increase in miles driven. Table 3.2. Total annual VMT emissions. 2005 2016 Total VMT MTCO2e/ VMT Total Emissions Total VMT MTCO2e/ VMT Total Emissions All vehicles 461,452,446 0.000488 225,390 475,634,980 0.000448 212,980 Packet Page 143 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 16 4. Solid Waste Solid Waste Sector Overview This section presents the GHG emissions for the solid waste sector, specifically emissions from the disposal of solid waste produced within City limits into a landfill. This section presents the updated 2005 GHG emissions along with updated emissions for 2016. Updated Inventory Data and Methods This section provides updated solid waste activity data for the baseline year of 2005, as well as activity emissions estimates for years 2005 through 2016 to estimate the City’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The City of San Luis Obispo deposits all waste generated within city limits into the Cold Canyon Landfill. Cold Canyon Landfill provided solid waste disposal data. Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1 provide the City’s solid waste disposal tonnage for 2005 to 2016. Data for 2005 to 2007 was not able to be collected; therefore 2008 data was used as a proxy. Table 4.1. City solid waste activity data, 2008-2016 (Disposal Ton). Year Total Waste (Disposal Ton) 2008 53,011 2009 47,483 2010 44,836 2011 39,497 2012 40,469 2013 42,094 2014 40,200 2015 44,530 2016 46,857 Packet Page 144 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 17 Figure 4.1. Total City solid waste (Disposal Ton). Green Waste Green waste data was provided by the City of San Luis Obispo Utilities Department for years 2006 through 2016. Green waste is a part of the diverted waste stream to the Cold Canyon Landfill, which means that it is not buried at the plant. Traditionally, green waste was either used as alternative daily cover at the Cold Canyon Landfill or hauled to a windrow composting facility near Santa Maria. There is no standard protocol for estimating the emissions from windrow composting and therefore no emissions are estimated in this inventory. However, given the importance of diverting organic materials, the subsequent construction and operation of an anerobic digester to process organic green waste in 2018, and legislation requiring substantial increases in organic waste diversion, staff will continue to monitor the availability of a standard method and will include this information in future greenhouse gas and Climate Action Plan updates. Municipal Solid Waste GHG Emissions Conversion Factor This inventory follows the “methane commitment method” to account for the future emissions produced from annually deposited solid waste. This method requires the following steps: 1. Estimate the percent of degradable organic materials in landfilled waste. 2. Identify the conversion factor to translate tons of carbon dioxide to metric tons of methane. 3. Estimate the amount of methane per ton of landfilled waste that will enter the atmosphere. 4. Convert the estimate of methane to carbon dioxide equivalence. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Tonnage Landfilled Waste Packet Page 145 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 18 1. Estimate the percent of degradable organic materials in landfilled waste. The CARB Municipal Solid Waste Characterization Landfill Tool v. 1.3 provides landfill waste characterization estimates for waste by type sent to California landfills. The waste types identified in the waste characterization studies are listed in Table 4.2. For each of these waste types, the tool includes California average estimates of the fraction of waste-in-place (WIPFRAC), total degradable organic carbon (TDOC), and the decomposable anaerobic fraction (DANF) of the waste type.iv There are two relevant waste characterization studies for this inventory: one from 2003 to 2006 and the other from 2007 to the present. Table 4.2 provides information about waste characterization estimates used in this inventory, as well as the degradable organic content (DOC) percent per ton of solid waste, which is calculated by multiplying WIPFRAC, TDOC, and DANF for each waste type. Table 4.2. Total percent of waste degradable based on waste type. 2003-2006 2007-Present Waste Type WIPFRAC TDOC DANF DOC WIPFRAC TDOC DANF DOC Newspaper 2.20% 47.09% 15.05% 0.16% 1.65% 47.09% 15.05% 0.12% Office Paper 1.95% 38.54% 87.03% 0.65% 1.84% 38.54% 87.03% 0.62% Corrugated Boxes 5.75% 44.84% 44.25% 1.14% 4.80% 44.84% 44.25% 0.95% Coated Paper 11.09% 33.03% 24.31% 0.89% 8.98% 33.03% 24.31% 0.72% Food 14.55% 14.83% 86.52% 1.87% 15.50% 14.83% 86.52% 1.99% Grass 2.81% 13.30% 47.36% 0.18% 1.90% 13.30% 47.36% 0.12% Leaves 1.41% 29.13% 7.30% 0.03% 3.24% 29.13% 7.30% 0.07% Branches 2.59% 44.24% 23.14% 0.26% 1.95% 44.24% 23.14% 0.20% Lumber 9.65% 43.00% 23.26% 0.96% 14.51% 43.00% 23.26% 1.45% Textiles 4.44% 24.00% 50.00% 0.53% 5.47% 24.00% 50.00% 0.66% Diapers 4.36% 24.00% 50.00% 0.52% 4.33% 24.00% 50.00% 0.52% Construction/ Demolition 12.06% 4.00% 50.00% 0.24% 5.48% 4.00% 50.00% 0.11% Medical Waste 0.04% 15.00% 50.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15.00% 50.00% 0.00% Sludge/Manure 0.09% 5.00% 50.00% 0.00% 0.05% 5.00% 50.00% 0.00% Source: CARB Municipal Solid Waste Characterization Landfill Tool v. 1.3 2. Identify the conversion factor to translate tons of carbon dioxide to metric tons of methane. The next step in calculating the emissions factor is estimating the metric tons of methane to be generated from the organic content in the landfilled waste. Solid waste activity data is reported in tons, while the standard unit for GHG reporting is metric tons. Table 4.3 presents the conversion factors to metric tons. As the decomposing organic content in landfilled solid waste transitions from carbon to methane, the atomic mass changes as well. Since the CO2e in this inventory is iv For more information, visit https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/cc/protocols/localgov/pubs/landfill_emissions_tool_v1_3_2011 -11-14.xls Packet Page 146 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 19 presented as mass (metric tons), this change in mass is accounted for with the stoichiometric ratio between CH4 and carbon. Finally, of the total landfill gas generated from decomposing waste, approximately half is methane; a methane gas fraction is applied to remove other gasses from the total. The remainder is biogenic CO2 from vegetation from natural areas, crops, and urban vegetation and de minimus amounts of N2O. The GPC advises against accounting for either of these gases in a community inventory. Table 4.3. Conversion to metric tons of methane. lbs/ton1 MT/lbs 1 Stoichiometric ratio between CH4 and carbon2 Fraction of CH4 Gas in Landfill Gas 3 Metric Tons of Methane 2000 0.000454 1.333333 0.5 0.604796 1 Standard conversion factor. 2 16/12, provided by the Global Protocol for Community -Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories. 3 IPCC Good Practices Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2000) default range. 3. Estimate the amount of methane per ton of landfilled waste that will enter the atmosphere. The next factor in the solid waste emissions coefficient is the amount of landfill gas that is collected by landfill gas capture systems. The San Luis Obispo County Air Pollution Control District (APCD) provides landfill capture rates for Cold Canyon Landfill, as provided in Table 4.4 for the years 2008 – 2013. The landfill capture rate for 2006 is sourced from the County of San Luis Obispo EnergyWise Plan Appendix A. Given the lack of data availability for several years, including 2005, 2007, 2014, 2015, and 2016 and the significant variability across years, this inventory relied on the EPA’s standard landfill methane capture rate of 75 percent. Table 4.4. Recorded methane capture rates from Cold Canyon Landfill. Year Cold Canyon 2005 Not Available 2006 60% 2007 Not Available 2008 70% 2009 99% 2010 85% 2011 85% 2012 85% 2013 75% The next phase of the equation considers the amount of methane that is oxidized in the soil. As reported in Table 4.5, only 25 percent of landfill gas enters the atmosphere. Of that 25 percent, 10 percent is oxidized on site in the soil of the land fill cover. Of the 75 percent of the methane that is captured, approximately 99 percent enters the atmosphere as CO2 due to the methane being combusted as part of the flaring process. Approximately 23 percent of the total methane emitted enters the atmosphere. Table 4.5 shows the factors used in this calculation. Packet Page 147 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 20 Table 4.5. Percent of emissions reaching the atmosphere. Fraction of methane recovered (frec) 1 Oxidation factor (OX) 2 Methane correction factor (MCF) 3 Percent of Emissions Reaching Atmosphere 75% 10% 99% 23.3% 1 Landfill gas capture rate, as provided by the Environmental Protection Agency 2 IPCC Good Practices Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2000) well-managed landfills factor. 3 IPCC Good Practices Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2000) managed landfill factor. 4. Convert the estimate of methane to carbon dioxide equivalence. The solid waste CO2e conversion factor was calculated by multiplying the total degradable content of each weight type (DOC), metric ton conversion factor, methane generation, and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report methane 20-year global warming potential (Table 4.6). The factors for each waste type are then weighted by the waste composition data to obtain a single emissions factor for a ton of mixed waste. In 2005 to 2006, each ton of solid waste deposited in a landfill is estimated to produce approximately 0.901 MTCO2e per ton as it degrades over time. For 2007 to 2016, the conversion factor is 0.910 MTCO2e per ton of solid waste. Table 4.6. Disposed solid waste conversion factor with Fifth Assessment Report global warming potential (MTCO2e/Disposal Ton). Waste Type 2003-2006 DOC1 2007- Present DOC1 Metric Ton (MT) CH4 emissions CH4 GWP2 2003-2006 MTCO2e/ Ton 2007- Present MTCO2e/ Ton Newspaper 0.16% 0.12% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.018893 0.014147 Office Paper 0.65% 0.62% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.079150 0.074673 Corrugated Boxes 1.14% 0.95% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.137882 0.115122 Coated Paper 0.89% 0.72% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.107692 0.087188 Food 1.87% 1.99% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.225818 0.240600 Grass 0.18% 0.12% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.021405 0.014505 Leaves 0.03% 0.07% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.003612 0.008322 Branches 0.26% 0.20% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.031997 0.024157 Lumber 0.96% 1.45% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.116652 0.175520 Textiles 0.53% 0.66% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.064439 0.079358 Diapers 0.52% 0.52% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.063217 0.062825 Construction/ Demolition 0.24% 0.11% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.029159 0.013245 Medical Waste 0.00% 0.00% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.000346 0.000000 Sludge/Manure 0.00% 0.00% 0.604796033 0.2325 86 0.000274 0.000155 Total -- -- -- -- -- 0.901 0.910 Note: Values are rounded causing final values to be inconsistent with calculations. 1 Source: CARB Municipal Solid Waste Characterization Landfill Tool v. 1.3. 2 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Packet Page 148 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 21 Total Solid Waste GHG Emissions To estimate the solid waste GHG emissions, the carbon dioxide equivalency conversion factor was multiplied by the disposal ton activity data. Once these were applied, the annual solid waste disposal ton emissions were calculated. As shown in Table 4.7, from 2005 to 2016, the solid waste sector experienced a decrease in emissions by nearly 11 percent. Table 4.7. Total solid waste disposed emissions (MTCO2e). Year Total Waste (Disposal Ton) MTCO2e Conversion Factor Solid Waste Disposed MTCO2e 2005 53,011 0.901 47,740 2006 53,011 0.901 47,740 2007 53,011 0.910 48,230 2008 53,011 0.910 48,230 2009 47,483 0.910 43,200 2010 44,836 0.910 40,790 2011 39,497 0.910 35,930 2012 40,469 0.910 36,820 2013 42,094 0.910 38,300 2014 40,200 0.910 36,570 2015 44,530 0.910 40,510 2016 46,857 0.910 42,630 Packet Page 149 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 22 Packet Page 150 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 23 5. Forecast The GHG emissions forecast estimates how San Luis Obispo’s emissions would change over time if no action were taken to reduce emissions. The forecast is based on changes to the number of people who live and work in San Luis Obispo. As the population grows and more people work in the community, there will be an increase (absent state or local action) in the amount of energy used, vehicle miles traveled, trash thrown away, and other activities that generate GHG emissions. The demographic projections used in the forecast come from the Land Use and Circulation Element of the City’s General Plan, which guides long-term growth and development in the community. These projections assume that the development anticipated in the Land Use and Circulation is fully implemented by 2035. It is assumed that jobs in San Luis Obispo County increase at a rate of 1.1 percent, as forecasted in the Land Use and Circulation Element, starting from the number of jobs in the community in 2015 as reported by the US Census. Table 6.1 shows the demographic changes assumed in the forecast and their applicable subsectors. Table 5.1. Demographic projections (2005-2035). Demographic Indicator Applicable Subsectors 2005 2016 2020 2030 2035 Population None 44,519 46,117 48,826 53,934 56,686 Housing units Residential electricity, residential natural gas 20,391 21,155 22,190 24,512 25,762 Jobs 1 Commercial/industrial electricity, commercial/industrial natural gas 43,847 50,985 53,153 59,723 63,199 Service population 2 On-road transportation, community- wide MSW disposal 66,779 71,610 74,253 83,430 88,286 1 Future job numbers assume a 1.1 percent increase in the number of jobs relative to 2015 levels . 2 Per the method used by the San Luis Obispo Community Development Department, service population is equal to the residential population plus ½ the number of jobs . Sources: City of San Luis Obispo Land Use and Circulation Element, City of San Luis Obispo Community Development Department, Economics & Planning Systems, US Census Bureau. The forecasts also consider known relevant actions that will continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There are three major policies that the City and the State have adopted to reduce GHG emissions at the local level: • Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Community Choice Energy (CCE) participation: RPS requires that electrical providers supply an increased amount of their electricity from eligible renewable sources. At time of writing, a bill to revise the RPS (SB 100), has been passed by the California Legislature and signed by Governor Brown requiring that 33% of the electricity sold by a provider by 2020 be renewable, that 60% of electricity be renewable by 2030, and that 100% of all electricity must be carbon-free (although not necessarily renewable) by 2045. This analysis assumes that SB 100 fully implemented. Additionally, in December of 2018, the City of San Luis Obispo joined Monterey Bay Community Power (MBCP), a community choice energy program. Beginning in January of 2020, MBCP will be providing carbon free electricity to the community. This forecast assumes that 2 percent of electrical load will opt to remain with PG&E. Packet Page 151 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 24 • Title 24: This set of standards governs how new buildings must be constructed, including specifying minimum energy efficiency requirements. The standards are updated every three years to be more stringent. California’s zero net energy (ZNE) standards are included in Title 24. The included forecast also assumes that the City’s Clean Energy Choice Program has been implemented and that all new construction is either electric and carbon free or has offset its emissions in the existing built environment. • Clean Car Standards: These standards require that cars sold in California meet minimum fuel efficiency requirements, and that vehicle and equipment fuel sold in the state emit less GHGs during production and use. The City used the 2035 emissions coefficient included in the EMFAC2014 modelling software, which includes assumptions about ongoing fuel efficiency and fuel carbon content improvements. The City has calculated the effect of these three policies on San Luis Obispo’s emissions and with these three policies in place, San Luis Obispo’s future GHG emissions are expected to continue to decrease. As shown in Table 6.2, emissions in 2020 are projected to be 306,600 MTCO2e (21 percent below 2005 levels), and in 2030 are expected to be at 275,730 MTCO2e (29 percent below 2005 levels). In 2035, emissions with state policies in place are expected to be at 260,160 MTCO2e, or 32 percent below 2005 levels. Table 5.2 Forecasted GHG emissions with state reductions, 2005-2050 (MTCO2e). Sector 2005 2016 2020 2030 2035 Percent Change (2005-2035) Transportation 225,390 212,980 198,212 161,291 142,830 -37% Nonresidential Energy 58,050 44,270 30,440 31,050 31,050 -46% Residential Energy 55,450 39,410 33,760 33,720 33,720 -39% Solid Waste 47,740 42,630 44,200 49,670 52,560 10% Total 386,630 339,290 306,600 275,730 260,160 -32% Change from 2005 -12% --21% -29% -32% Packet Page 152 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 25 6. Areas for Improvement A greenhouse gas emissions inventory is only a partial snapshot of the total emissions occurring in a community. The report as presented includes emissions sectors and categories as required by global accounting protocol and represent those sectors that have defensible and transparent methods and data. As the City continues its path of climate action toward carbon neutrality, the following areas for improvement will be closely monitored: • Energy in Water – The inventory presented in this report includes the energy required to move and treat water in the city. However, it does not estimate emissions from the conveyance of water from outside city limits to the city. Future inventories should identify a defensible method to account for these emissions. • Green Waste – All of the organic waste that is collected in the city is processed by an anerobic digester that yields clean electricity and compost. Previously, the community’s green waste was trucked to a wind row composting facility in Santa Maria, CA or landfilled at Cold Canyon Landfill. The new approach is certainly reducing community emissions. However, there are no available defensible methods for estimating emissions from wind row composting, and therefore, no way to establish a baseline emissions level. The City will continue to monitor GPC work on composting methods and will include as a sector when available. • Wastewater - The GPC requires local governments to account for direct process emissions that occur from the treatment of wastewater. It is known that the treatment of wastewater can release Nitrous Oxide and Methane, both of which are powerful greenhouse gases. Although the GPC provides accounting methods for estimating the direct release of emissions, an accounting protocol does not exist for the specific treatment type that occurs at the San Luis Obispo Water Resource Recovery Facility (nitrification, but no denitrification). Using an unvetted method, the City estimates these direct emissions to be approximately 200 MTCO2e per year. Given the small size, this sector is not critical for planning purposes, but will be included when future updates to the GPC provide a defensible accounting method. • Carbon Stocks and Sequestration – Greenhouse gas inventories do not need to evaluate existing carbon stocks or potential for sequestration, but these analysis can help the City understand how to better account for the existing value of these stocks and credit actions in the future that either preserve or enhance the amount of sequestered carbon. Sequestration, if included at all, is typically included in greenhouse gas inventories as an Given the amount of land area in the General Plan Conservation/Open Space, estimating the forestry and carbon stocks will be a meaningful part of a future inventory. As with the wastewater issue mentioned above, the City will monitor GPC updates for defensible accounting methods. Beyond that, the City is working with the cities of Vancouver B.C., San Francisco, and Boulder, CO to develop a tool for estimating emissions from carbon stocks and sequestration potential. • Fugitive Methane – From the well head to the appliance, methane leaks directly into the atmosphere as the result of natural gas development and transmission. Some estimates of total system leakage are high enough to make natural gas consumption as bad a climate polluter as coal. A common protocol for amending the natural gas emissions coefficient to Packet Page 153 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 26 account for this leakage is not available. The City will consider updating the coefficient in future years when such information is vetted and available. • Consumption - The inventory does not include the emissions that result from community consumption (e.g., consumption of food, clothing, packaging, etc.). Given the City’s intent to work closely with the community in developing and implementing the climate action plan, it is important to recognize the greenhouse gas impacts created by the purchase and disposal of products and materials. Global climate action leadership cities are working on developing a standard protocol for inventorying consumption-based emissions. As with the other items in this section, the City will seek to include the sector when such a protocol is available. It should be noted that emissions from consumption may be significant, some cities estimate that consumption emissions increase their total inventoried emissions by more than 40 percent. • Off-road equipment – Practices exist to account for emissions from lawn and garden and construction equipment. Using the Air Resources Board “OFFROAD” model, staff could estimate emissions from this voluntary sector in order lay a foundation for policy to reduce emissions from construction equipment and to reduce emissions from fossil fueled lawn and garden equipment. Packet Page 154 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo - 2016 GHG Inventory Update Page 27 List of Abbreviations AB: Assembly Bill ADT: Average daily trips APCD: Air Pollution Control District Caltrans: California Department of Transportation CAP: Climate Action Plan CARB: California Air Resources Board CH4: Methane CO2: Carbon dioxide CO2e: Carbon dioxide equivalent DANF: Decomposable anaerobic fraction DOC: Degradable organic content EPA: US Environmental Protection Agency GHG: Greenhouse gas IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kW: Kilowatt kWh: Kilowatt-hour LGOP: Local Government Operations Protocol MSW: Municipal solid waste MTCO2e: Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent N2O: Nitrous oxide PG&E: Pacific Gas & Electric Company RPS: Renewables Portfolio Standard SB: Senate Bill TDOC: Total degradable organic carbon VMT: Vehicle miles traveled WIPFRAC: Fraction of waste in place WRRF: Water Resource Recovery Facility ZNE: Zero net energy Packet Page 155 Item 10 DRAFT Carbon Neutrality Vision and Three-Year Strategic Plan Technical Report City of San Luis Obispo Office of Sustainability Drafted in November 2019 PLEASE REPORT ANY ERRORS OR SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT TO CREAD@SLOCITY.ORG Packet Page 156 Item 10 Packet Page 157 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Report Page i Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 1. Proposed Approach to Decarbonization ............................................................................ 1 1.1 Key Findings ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Technical Foundation ....................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Decarbonization Approach ................................................................................................ 4 2. Pillars of Carbon Neutrality & Foundational Actions......................................................... 6 2.1 Lead by Example .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Clean Energy Systems ..................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Green Buildings ...............................................................................................................10 2.4 Connected Community ....................................................................................................13 2.5 Circular Economy ............................................................................................................16 2.6 Natural Solutions .............................................................................................................18 Packet Page 158 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page ii List of Tables Table 1.1. San Luis Obispo Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MTCO2e, 2005-2016) .... 3 Table 2.1. Proposed “Lead by Example” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) .............................. 7 Table 2.2. Proposed “Clean Energy Systems” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) ..................... 9 Table 2.3. Proposed “Green Buildings” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) ...............................11 Table 2.4. Proposed “Connected Community” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) ....................14 Table 2.5. Proposed “Circular Economy” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) ............................17 Table 2.6. Proposed “Natural Solutions” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) .............................19 List of Figures Figure 1.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions by Decarbonization Pillar .......................... 5 Figure 1.2. Proposed Climate Action Plan Update Schedule ...................................................... 5 Packet Page 159 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Report Page 1 Introduction In September of 2018, the City of San Luis Obispo City Council provided direction to staff to develop a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2035 as part of the City’s Climate Action Plan update. This target, based on scientific findings that global emissions need to be net neutral by 2050 to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, would be one of the most ambitious in the nation and requires substantial amounts innovation, flexibility, collaboration, leadership, and comfort with uncertainty. In 2019, City staff worked closely with technical consultants, peer cities, stakeholders, and community members to identify how the task of achieving carbon neutrality could be approached, and how City actions to achieve the target could be organized, established, and ultimately implemented to enhance community health and wellbeing while also achieving deep decarbonization. This report highlights a proposed approach to decarbonization and presents the foundational actions needed to be implemented in the next three years to lay a foundation for high impact climate action. 1. Proposed Approach to Decarbonization 1.1 Underlying Assumptions Since the adoption of the City’s first Climate Action Plan in 2012, lessons have been learned in the evolving field of climate action planning. The City’s proposed approach to significantly reducing community greenhouse gas emissions is based on these lessons and include the following: 1. Systems are responsible for the climate crisis. For decades the climate crisis has been presented as the fault and responsibility of individuals. While it is true that everyone can and should do their part in addressing the climate crisis, transformative change to a low carbon, equitable, and sustainable community requires changes to the systems in which a community functions (e.g., energy systems, waste systems, transportation systems, economic development systems, etc.).i 2. The climate crisis and social equity must be addressed together. Many of the conditions that have led to the climate crisis have also led to growing inequality.ii Leading communities are turning to a focus on social equity to ensure a just distribution of the benefits of climate action while also using the effort to give a voice to those not typically i This conclusion is arrived at directly in the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance Game Changers report, “Deep, long-term decarbonization depends on transforming our cities’ key GHG-emitting systems and markets for transportation, energy supply, buildings, solid waste, and food…” (http://carbonneutralcities.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/CNCA-Game-Changers-Report-2018.pdf) and is also supported by recent climate literature including Designing Climate Solutions (Harvey 2019), and echoed in national and local “Green New Deal” proposals. ii For a discussion on mobility and inequality, see: http://greenlining.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/01/MobilityEquityFramework_8.5x11_v_GLI_Print_Endnotes -march-2018.pdf Packet Page 160 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 2 present in the decision making process.iii Low greenhouse gas emissions, equity, and resilience are the organizing principles required for communities to thrive in the 21st century.iv 3. Local governments are uniquely capable of certain actions. The City level of government is uniquely situated to address issues related to land use and conservation, building energy performance, creating conditions for housing production, supporting certain economic development patterns, and prioritizing how the community’s co-owned spaces are used. For structural changes to occur, the City should focus on these unique capabilities. For other actions, the City can also coordinate with regional agencies and other levels of government (state and federal) and support community partners to focus on climate action in the fields that they are uniquely capable of (e.g., academic research, entrepreneurial innovation, operational emissions of private organizations, etc.). 4. Leadership is needed and the world is watching. As a leadership city, San Luis Obispo has an outsized role in how cities throughout the world are addressing their greenhouse gas emissions. While many climate leadership cities are larger metropolitan areas, San Luis Obispo as a small city is an inspiration for the over 17.5 million people in the US that live in cities with 40,000-60,000 residents.v Staff are active participants in regional, statewide, national, and international networks of cities, many of which are watching San Luis Obispo closely to see what is possible. 1.2 Technical Foundation The decarbonization path pursued by the City and the community depends on qualitative variables such as shared values and shared visions for the future. In addition to these values, an approach to decarbonization must also be based on quantitative analysis. This report builds on the 2016 Community Greenhouse Gas Emission and technical emissions reductions quantification work provided by City consultants. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory A key first step in developing an approach to decarbonization is to understand the sources, quantities, and trends in climate pollution that occur as the result of human activity in San Luis Obispo. Methods and findings are provided in detail in the 2016 Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report; Table 1.1 summarizes the findings. In brief, transportation, including regional vehicle trips produce the most emissions with building energy use and solid waste also contributing substantially to the overall inventory. All inventoried emissions sectors experienced iii For example, the City of Portland, Oregon has made equity the primary organizing principle in its climate work: https://beta.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2019-07/cap-equity-case-study-web29jul.pdf. Additionally, the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance has identified “equity” and “centering climate action on people” as a “game changer”: https://carbonneutralcities.org/centering-people-and-equity/ iv As described in the UC Berkeley Study Advancing Equity in California Climate Policy, “In California, the road to climate policy runs through—not over—climate equity.” (http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/pdf/2016/Advancing-Equity.pdf) v The population estimate is derived from the 2010 Decennial US Census. Packet Page 161 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 3 decreases from the baseline inventory year of 2005 to the check-in inventory year of 2016, with a total overall decrease of approximately 12 percent.vi Table 1.1. San Luis Obispo Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MTCO2e, 2005-2016) Sector 2005 2016 Percent Change Transportation 225,390 212,980 -6% Nonresidential Energy 58,050 44,270 -24% Residential Energy 55,450 39,410 -29% Solid Waste 47,740 42,630 -11% Total 386,630 339,290 -12% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Technical Analysis Climate Action Plans typically identify and quantify the estimated emissions reductions from hundreds of actions to be completed prior to the target year (in this case, 2035, or 15 years). When taken together, these quantified actions illustrate the community’s ability to achieve the community’s emission reduction target. Based on City staff’s previous work experience implementing climate action plans in other communities, discussions with other similar communities throughout the US, and review of dozens of existing climate action plans, this approach has been challenging because the volume of actions are hard to track, are typically incremental in nature, and can become obsolete due to how rapidly energy and transportation technologies, markets, and regulations are evolving. For this reason, staff is recommending an approach that establishes sector specific targets and identifies foundational research, capacity building, and implementation actions to begin progress toward those targets. The proposed sector specific targets were informed by a variety of inputs, including state law related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, and landfilled organic waste; mode split targets identified in the City’s General Plan; and previous direction from Council. In addition, the City worked with the consulting firm Raimi + Associates to quantify a full range of potential actions to illustrate what one path to deep carbon reductions might be. Staff has used Raimi + Associates’ initial draft work as guideposts for targets described in Section 1.3. vi As noted in the 2016 Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, g reenhouse gas emissions are not measured directly. They are modeled and estimated by multiplying data about some activity (e.g., the amount of electricity consumed, the number of miles travelled in fossil fuel powered vehicles, the tons of solid waste sent to the landfill, etc.) by the greenhouse gas emission content of a typical unit of that activity (e.g., the average greenhouse gas emissions content per therm of combusted natural gas). This inventory accounts for three common greenhouse gasses: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20). Since methane and nitrous oxide are substantially more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide (86 and 265 times more potent, respectively), the emissions modeled from their release into the atmosphere are multiplied by their respective potential to warm the atmosphere relative to CO 2. The common reporting unit for greenhouse gas emissions is “Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalence”, or MTCO2e. Packet Page 162 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 4 State of California Technical Reports State legislation (AB 32 and SB 32) focused on reducing GHG emissions provides authority to the California Air Resources Board to develop the strategy for achieving the state’s targets via the Climate Change Scoping Plan (Scoping Plan). The Scoping Plan identifies the need for local governments to reduce their emissions accordingly and provides an approach to achieve the 2030 targets while stressing the importance of those targets putting the state on a trajectory to the goal of reducing emissions 80 percent under 1990 levels by 2050. Faced with the incredibly challenging, but essential, task of achieving these deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the State of California has commissioned numerous studies outlining potential paths. For example, the California Energy Commission (CEC) released the report Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future (2018) to describe the most cost-effective approach to reaching the state’s 2030 and 2050 targets. Consistent with other reports studying approaches to achieving deep GHG reduction targets, the CEC report provides four categories for community decarbonization: 1) energy efficiency and energy conservation, 2) low-carbon fuels, 3) electrification of technology that currently runs on fossil fuels, and 4) a reduction in non- combustion GHGs (e.g., methane generated from decomposing solid waste). Staff has used this organizational framework as a foundation and has amended it based on additional research to include six “pillars” of decarbonization. 1.3 Decarbonization Approach Based on the information described above, staff recommends an approach to carbon neutrality that is organized into the following six pillars, each with a long-term goal and foundational actions to be initiated or completed by 2023: Pillar 1: Lead by Example – Carbon neutral government operations by 2030 Pillar 2: Clean Energy Systems –100 percent carbon free electricity by 2020 Pillar 3: Green Buildings – No net new emissions from new buildings’ onsite energy use by 2020; 50 percent reduction in existing building onsite emissions by 2030 Pillar 4: Connected Community – Achieve General Plan mode split objective by 2030; 40 percent of vehicle miles travelled by electric vehicles by 2030 Pillar 5: Circular Economy – 75 percent diversion of landfilled organic waste by 2025; 90 percent by 2035 Pillar 6: Natural Solutions – Increase carbon sequestration on the San Luis Obispo Greenbelt and Urban Forest through compost application-based carbon farming activities and tree planting; ongoing through 2035 Taken together, these six pillar goals could reduce community greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 73 percent below annual baseline emissions by 2035. Figure 1.1 provides an illustration of the contribution of the reductions by pillar. Packet Page 163 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 5 Figure 1.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions by Decarbonization Pillar (Annual MTCO2e in 2035) Note: The Clean Energy Systems pillar action (launch Monterey Bay Community Power service) is expected to be significantly underway at the adoption of the Climate Action Plan, and therefore is included in the GHG inventory forecast. For this reason, it is illustrated in Figure 1.1 as emissions avoided in the forecast. Note: The greenhouse gas emissions reductions figures in this section represent provisional estimates based on projected future emissions and full achievement of the proposed pillar goals. Should Council direct staff to pursue the proposed targets and foundational actions, staff would refine the reductions estimates with additional data and detail. The figures are rounded to the nearest thousand to illustrate the provisional nature of the es timates. At full implementation, it is expected that this approach would leave approximately 104,160 MTCO2e in annual emissions. To continue the learning process and to better understand how to address the remaining emissions, City staff recommends that Council makes a firm commitment to update and adopt a new Climate Action Plan on an “every other” Financial Plan cycle. This allows for certainty in the update schedule, ensures that the carbon neutrality work is directly tied to the City’s financial decision making and prioritization process, and allows for constant integration of learning and best practices into the City’s climate action program . The proposed update schedule is provided as Figure 1.2. Figure 1.2. Proposed Climate Action Plan Update Schedule . Packet Page 164 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 6 2. Pillars of Carbon Neutrality & Foundational Actions This section provides an overview of each pillar, describes how the City has taken a leadership role in each pillar, presents the proposed foundational measures and actions in each pillar, and concludes with initial ideas for community partners to implement so they can play their role in achieving carbon neutrality. 2.1 Lead by Example The operational emissions that occur as the result of running the City organization are a small representation of community greenhouse gas emissions. Like many organizations, the City uses electricity and natural gas, fleet vehicles and commuting employees use fossil fueled vehicles, and solid waste is generated. In addition, the City runs energy intensive facilities such as the Water Treatment Plan and the Water Resource Recovery Facility. Continuing, accelerating, and expanding the City’s traditional approach to reducing emissions and organizational resilience will simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and serve as an example to residents and businesses in the community. The City has already completed dozens of high impact emissions reductions efforts including installing rooftop solar on several buildings, installing public electric vehicle charging structures, and purchasing plug-in hybrid fleet vehicles. Many more initiatives are on the horizon with installation of additional solar energy systems and energy efficiency retrofits slated to begin in 2020. This pillar seeks direction from Council to pursue an operational carbon neutrality target and to return with an operational action proposal to achieve that target by December 2020. City Leadership The City is already a municipal leader in sustainability initiatives and is currently working on, or is planning to work on, the following projects: • Certification of City Hall as a “Green Business” under the San Luis Obispo Green Business Network. • Lighting energy efficiency projects at the City’s parking garages • Electric vehicle chargers for fleet vehicles at the Palm Street Garage • Electric vehicle chargers at City Hall • Electric vehicle “Fast Chargers” at the Calle Joaquin Park and Ride Lot • Major facility maintenance, specifically regarding hydration stations and the City pool’s thermal cover • Developing a Purchase Power Agreement (PPA) solar project • Implementing the Water Treatment Plant Energy Efficiency project • Developing a transportation electrification strategic plan • Developing an urban forest master plan Lead by Example Goal: Carbon Neutral Government Operations by 2030; Municipal Action Plan by December 2020 Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 7,500 MTCO2e Packet Page 165 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 7 Proposed Actions The City has a strong history of sustainability initiatives in its government operations and is currently undertaking numerous actions. For the sake of simplicity, the actions presented in the Climate Action Plan will be primarily focused on establishing a municipal operations carbon neutrality target for 2030 and developing a proposal for achieving that target by December 2020. Table 2.1. Proposed “Lead by Example” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Measure Foundational Actions Lead by Example 1 – Municipal Carbon Neutrality Plan Leadership 1.1 – Present municipal carbon neutrality plan to City Council by December 2020 Leadership 1.2 – Commit to no new fossil fuels in municipal buildings Leadership 1.3 - Develop and implement campus wide energy strategic plan by 2022. Lead by Example 2 – City Organization & Decision Making Leadership 2.1 – Integrate climate considerations into City decision making processes. Lead by Example 3 – Green Local Economy Leadership 3.1 – Include carbon neutrality considerations and a focus on developing the green local economy in the updated Economic Development Strategic Plan Leadership 3.2 – Research methods to support local contractors and labor Ideas for Partners The City encourages local and regional partner organizations to also show leadership. Opportunities include: • Provide a permanent home for the SLO Green Business Network. • Provide a permanent home for the SLO Green Challenge. • Co-lead biennial GHG inventory updates. • Link the City’s TRIP program to iRideshare. Packet Page 166 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 8 2.2 Clean Energy Systems Affordable, accessible, abundant, and clean energy systems are the foundation of a low carbon economy that thrives in a changing climate. Rapid transitions to carbon neutral electricity that supports local economic development is possible through community choice energy and partnerships with the city’s energy utility providers. The Clean Energy Systems pillar focuses on grid- based energy sources (electricity and natural gas) in the community. The goal for this pillar is carbon free electricity by 2020, with additional efforts to understand natural gas decarbonization technologies, support affordable and equitable access to clean energy, and coordinate utility investments in electrical and natural gas grid reliability. Clean electricity is the foundation of a carbon neutral community. By focusing on high impact programs that rapidly transition the carbon content of the energy system while continually working to ensure affordability, equitable access, and system resilience, this pillar allows for a transition away from fossil fuels without compromise in convenience, quality of life, or local economic development. Rapid transition is possible because the actions in this pillar address structural issues and provide carbon free electricity as a default product for residents and businesses. At the same time, personal choice is maintained by allowing customers to opt-out. As California continues its transition to a carbon free electrical grid by 2045 (SB 100), and as the community benefits from participation in Monterey Bay Community Power, electricity in the community will have a very low greenhouse gas emissions impact that will continue to decrease over the next decade. Abundant and affordable carbon free electricity serves as the foundation to the City’s climate action efforts and allows for the high quality of life experienced today without the climate impact. Grid-based electricity must be reliable. As illustrated by recent Public Safety Power Shutoffs, a grid based on long range transmission must continue to be hardened in a changing climate and strategic investments must be made to ensure grid capacity. This pillar also accounts for the likelihood that most, if not all, of the City’s existing natural gas distribution grid will remain into the foreseeable future and that it is important to study and significantly reduce leakage that occurs in the local natural gas system distribution system. The accounting of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the combustion of natural gas traditionally only calculates the emissions from the volume of natural gas that is combusted, which converts the gas to carbon dioxide, water, and trace amounts of methane. However, a more advanced understanding of natural gas leakage rates, the chemical composition of natural gas primarily being methane, and recent findings related to methane’s dramatic global warming potential has underscored the importance of reducing natural gas consumption and studying and reducing local distribution grid leakage rates. Equity, Quality of Life, and Economic Development Opportunities Cost of living continues to be a challenge in the community and region. With new renewable energy projects proposing prices that are comparable with fossil fuel resources, a carbon neutral Clean Energy Systems Goal: 100 percent carbon free electricity by 2020 Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 39,000 MTCO2e Packet Page 167 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 9 and increasingly renewable electricity supply will provide continued costs savings on the electricity generation component of local electricity bills. System wide, the transition of energy procurement to a value-driven public agency provides local accountability, accelerated rates of clean energy, and the ability to retain the money spent on energy in the region through energy programs. Although large scale renewable energy generation is limited in the community due to land costs and other constraints, regional opportunities including additional solar, battery storage, and offshore wind facilities exist. Through the actions in this pillar, the City could use its advocacy capacity to help design regional energy projects that support local labor and head of household jobs and energy programs that maximize local economic development benefits. City Leadership The City will exhibit leadership in practice by opting-up to Monterey Bay Community Power’s 100 percent renewable electricity product and will continue to play a regional leadership role in advocating for energy investments, energy programs, and MBCP operational practices that prioritize equity, local economic development, and head of household jobs. Proposed Actions Clean Energy Systems focuses on the grid-based energy sources (electricity and natural gas) in the community. The goal for this pillar is carbon free electricity by 2020, with additional efforts to understand natural gas decarbonization technologies and investments in the electrical and natural gas grid reliability. Table 2.2 provides the proposed Clean Energy Systems foundational actions. Table 2.2. Proposed “Clean Energy Systems” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Measure Foundational Actions Clean Energy Systems 1 – Monterey Bay Community Power Energy 1.1 - Launch Monterey Bay Community Power and achieve a 98 percent participation rate; advocate for equity and maximum local benefit Clean Energy Systems 2 – Local Grid Reliability and Energy Storage Energy 2.1 - Work with MBCP & PG&E to develop a regional grid reliability and resilience strategy Clean Energy Systems 3 – Natural Gas Strategy Energy 3.1 - Partner with SoCal Gas to research options for reducing greenhouse emissions associated with the existing natural gas grid. Ideas for Partners The City encourages local and regional partner organizations to also show leadership. Opportunities include: • "Opt-up" from MBCP’s 100% carbon free base product to its 100% renewable electricity product. Packet Page 168 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 10 2.3 Green Buildings Advances in on-site solar energy systems, electrical appliances, and grid-based energy provide an opportunity for all-electric buildings to maintain all the conveniences and comforts of standard buildings without the climate pollution caused through the use of fossil fuels. Rapid transitions to low carbon buildings is possible by identifying the largest energy users and working to provide cash positive financing mechanisms while also working with homeowners and building owners to subsidize and support onsite solar, energy storage, and transitioning high energy use appliances (e.g., water heating and space conditioning) to high efficiency electric alternatives. The Green Buildings pillar focuses on emissions from energy (electricity and natural gas) used in buildings, facilities, and outdoor lighting in the community. The goal for this pillar is to add no new net emissions from new buildings starting in 2020 and reducing emissions from the remaining building stock by 50 percent (after accounting for savings from carbon free electricity) by 2030. With clean electricity as the foundation of a carbon neutral community, and with rapid advances and cost reductions in onsite solar generation, onsite energy storage, and electric appliances, the potential exists to equitably and affordably transition to fossil fuel free buildings. This pillar focuses on high impact programs that produce carbon neutral new buildings and leverages existing programs, funding sources for income qualified households, and financing mechanisms to assist building owners with retrofitting the community’s largest natural gas users to retrofit to electric appliances for water heating and space conditioning. Rapid transitions to low-carbon new buildings (from onsite energy use) is possible via the City’s Clean Energy Choice program and the 2019 California Energy Code (and standard triennial updates to both). Existing buildings will be a substantially more challenging issue as every building is unique and many existing buildings may require costly electrical system upgrades to transition to lower carbon buildings. The emissions from electricity are primarily reduced by joining Monterey Bay Community Power, as described in “Clean Energy Systems”, above. Natural gas consumption occurs in buildings and facilities primarily for water heating, space heating, cooking, clothes drying, and decorative space heating (e.g., gas fireplaces). While some natural gas end uses may always require fossil fuels to operate (e.g., industrial processes for manufacturing), all of the common residential and commercial natural gas end uses have high quality, high efficiency, and typically cost-effective alternatives. As buildings become more efficient and/or as building owners choose to transition from fossil fueled to electric appliances, the emissions associated with the energy use transition from high emissions fossil fuels to carbon neutral electricity. Equity, Quality of Life, and Economic Development Opportunities As described below, although the generation costs associated with electricity are projected to stay flat or decrease as the result of low cost new renewable energy facilities, transmission costs are Green Building Goal: No net new building emissions from onsite energy use by 2020; 50 percent reduction in existing building emissions (after accounting for MBCP) by 2030 Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 32,000 MTCO2e Packet Page 169 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 11 likely to fluctuate substantially as climate change exposes the statewide grid to ever increasing natural hazards. As the state moves towards decarbonization and the state’s natural gas system ages, natural gas utility costs are also expected to increase and fluctuate. A focus on supporting low income households in installing rooftop solar and pairing that with high efficiency electric appliances for space heating and water heating allows enhanced comfort and insulation from fluctuating electricity and natural gas grid costs. A rapid mobilization in the solar installations, energy efficiency installations, and appliance switching is a “win-win” in that there are typical lifetime savings associated with the work for the building owner while also creating a substantial need for skilled labor. Additionally, transitioning existing buildings at speed and scale will require technological innovations. By partnering with organizations that support entrepreneurs, local business can pair their innovation and ingenuity with emerging needs, creating additional head of household jobs and local economic stimulus. City Leadership The City has already begun strategically retrofitting existing buildings to electric appliances. One example is the planned retirement of the natural gas co-generation system at the SLO Swim Center and replacement with onsite solar generation to replace the lost generation capacity of the existing system. As described in the “Lead by Action” section, above, the City will also develop a plan to achieve carbon neutral operations, including in building and energy use, by 2030. The City will exhibit regional leadership as an advocate by continuing to influence Monterey Bay Community Power energy program development and implementation and partnering with existing entities to maximize local resources for building retrofits. Proposed Actions Green Buildings focuses on energy used in buildings, facilities, and outdoor lighting (electricity and natural gas) in the community. The goals for this pillar are no net new building emissions from onsite energy use by 2020 and 50 percent reduction in existing building emissions (after accounting for MBCP) by 2030. Table 2.3 provides the proposed Green Buildings foundational actions. Table 2.3. Proposed “Green Buildings” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Measures Foundational Actions Green Buildings 1 – Carbon Neutral New Buildings Buildings 1.1 – Adopt and implement local amendments to the 2019 California Energy Code incentivizing all electric development (Clean Energy Choice Program) and review opportunities for improvement in the 2022 code cycle. Green Buildings 2 – Energy Retrofitting Buildings 2.1 – Conduct comprehensive retrofit program study and develop a strategic and equity focused building retrofit program. Buildings 2.2 Adopt building energy score program or benchmarking ordinance by 2021 and begin implementing retrofit program. Packet Page 170 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 12 Ideas for Partners • Participate in retrofit program study to help with market penetration and to find ways to leverage the City’s resources to increase existing program participation. • Explore innovative market-based solutions such as Metered Energy Efficiency Transactions. • Support entrepreneurs focused on innovation in energy efficiency, energy monitoring, fuel conversion, electric vehicle charging, and other related fields. • Support training and developing the work force necessary to implement a retrofit program at scale. • Develop a building retrofit, solar installation, and fuel switching program for residential customers. Packet Page 171 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 13 2.4 Connected Community An increase in active transportation investments coordinated with more housing production, enhanced transit, and micro-mobility innovations can significantly reduce vehicle miles travelled. For the many local and regional households that will still depend on a vehicle for transportation, electric vehicles coupled with carbon neutral electricity, can provide a low emissions alternative. Transportation is the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the City of San Luis Obispo. Transportation emissions primarily occur as the result of single occupancy fossil fueled vehicles. The goal for this pillar is to achieve the General Plan Mode Split Objective by 2030 and have 40 percent of the remaining automotive vehicle miles travelled occur through electric vehicles.vii This pillar focuses on advanced coordination between related fields of transit, active transportation, parking, and housing development as well as on transformational operational changes that will allow for more active transportation investments to be made at a more rapid rate and at a lower per unit cost. Rapid transitions to achieve the Circulation Element of the General Plan’s mode share target five years early will require increased density and housing production, innovative parking management approaches, further commitments to transit, and a process to allow for rapid construction of active transportation infrastructure. In all cases, equity and accessibility must be a top priority to ensure residents can conveniently and affordably move about the City without use of a fossil fueled vehicle. It should be noted that regional commute trips are especially difficult as the activity of commuting from or to outside of the City requires the crossing of multiple jurisdictional boundaries and can occur due to a lack of affordable housing options in the city. The City will focus on internal trips first, with secondary high priority focus supporting reducing emissions from regional trips through addressing the City’s job/housing imbalance, housing affordability, and identifying subsidies for low- and moderate-income electric vehicle purchases. Equity, Quality of Life, and Economic Development Opportunities Cities and regions built for cars lead to long commute times, which are expensive, isolating, polluting, and economically impactful. This pillar looks to provide affordable, safe, and convenient access to moving through the community so that income is not a limiting factor in mobility. Additionally, for households that must or choose to live somewhere that requires a personal vehicle, electric vehicles have low operational costs and can lead to substantial total cost of ownership savings relative to a fossil fuel vehicle. vii The General Plan set the following mode split objective for city resident trips: 50% of trips occur via motor vehicles, 12% of trips occur via transit, 20% of trips occur via bicycles, and 18% of trips occur via walking, carpools and other forms. Connected Community Goal: Achieve General Plan Mode Split Objective by 2030; 40 percent of VMT by electric vehicles by 2030 Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 78,000 MTCO2e Packet Page 172 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 14 City Leadership The City will play a major leadership role in this effort through the construction and maintenance of active transportation infrastructure, prioritization of streets and public rights of way for people before automobiles, enhancement of transit services to include all electric buses and to increase bus frequency, introduction of a micro-mobility “bike share” program, and further installation and innovative management of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. The City will also lead through continue purchasing of plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric bicycles for its fleet. Proposed Actions Connected Community focuses on vehicle miles travelled and the transition from fossil fuel to electric vehicles. The goals for this pillar are to achieve the General Plan Mode Split Objective by 2030; and to have 40 percent of vehicle miles travelled occur by electric vehicles by 2030. Table 2.4 provides the proposed “Connected Community” foundational actions. Table 2.4. Proposed “Connected Community” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) Measures Foundational Actions Connected Community 1 – Innovation and Coordination Connected 1.1 – Research and develop an approach to a “Mobility as a Service” platform for people to easily use all modes of low carbon mobility in the City. Connected 1.2 – Repurpose the City’s Green Team to focus on 2017-19 Major City Goal collaboration and coordination in the short term, and on achieving the mode split and EV targets in the long term. Connected 1.3 – Create new development review standards to support Community Development Department decision making processes for consistency with the carbon neutrality goal. . Connected Community 2 – Active Transportation Connected 2.1 – Complete Active Transportation Plan and begin implementation. Connected 2.2 – Launch micro mobility program by 2021 Connected 2.3 – Develop a quick-build strategy to streamline implementation of priority bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure projects Connected Community 3 – Parking Connected 3.1 – Establish a policy and strategic approach to leveraging existing and new parking garages for downtown residential and visitor serving uses and to allow for further implementation of the Downtown Concept Plan Connected Community 4 – Transit Connected 4.1 – Develop transit electrification strategic plan and begin implementing in 2020 Connected 4.2 – Increase bus frequency through accelerated implementation of the existing Short Range Transit Plan. Connected 4.3 – Explore additional innovative transit options in the 2022 Short Range Transit Plan (e.g., on-demand deviated routes, electric fleet expansion, micro transit, Bus Rapid Transit, Transit Signal Priority, etc.). Connected 4.4 – Assess feasibility of a “free to the user” transit ridership program. Packet Page 173 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 15 Measures Foundational Actions Connected Community 5 – Housing Connected 5.1 - Develop Flexible Zoning Requirements for Downtown. Connected 5.2 - Update the Housing Element of the General Plan and complete the Housing Major City Goal. Connected Community 6 – Electric Vehicles Connected 6.1 - Develop and begin implementing electric mobility plan by 2021 Ideas for Partners • Continue to operate and expand the SLO Car Free program • Increase regional commute bus frequency and establish a direct commuter route to Los Osos • Develop regional commuter rail • Integrate regional transit stop planning with micro-mobility programs Packet Page 174 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 16 2.5 Circular Economy A “Circular Economy” is an economic system aimed at eliminating waste and the continual use of resources. Circular systems practice reuse, sharing, repair, refurbishment, remanufacturing and recycling to create a closed-loop system, minimizing the use of resource inputs and the creation of waste, pollution and carbon emissions.viii Whereas, a traditional extractive economy can be thought of as a straight line from extraction to consumption to disposal, a circular economy looks to use 'waste' as 'food' for other processes. One example of this is organic (or “green” food and lawn and garden waste) waste that is currently being sent to the landfill. Greenhouse gas emissions from organic material decomposing in Cold Canyon Landfill account for over ten percent of the community’s greenhouse gas emissions. As organic materials decompose in a landfill, they release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although Cold Canyon Landfill includes methane capture provisions, methane capture is a challenge at landfills because of the natural movement of the Earth’s surface beneath the tarped waste. As a result, methane tends to escape into the atmosphere over time. By first reducing the amount of organics being disposed of through edible food rescue, and then focusing efforts on diversion of landfilled organics to the regional anaerobic digester, the City will be providing access to food for those in need while fully capturing methane and converting it to biogas via the regional anerobic digestor. The outputs of the anerobic digester are clean electricity and high-quality compost, both of which can be delivered back to the community. The foundational actions in this pillar focus on the topical area the City has direct responsibility for: diversion of organic waste from the landfill and achieving the methane reductions required by recent state law (SB 1383). Emissions from organic waste are only a part of the overall greenhouse gas emissions that occur as the result of consumption: single use plastics, product shipping, and emissions intensive diets all create greenhouse gas emissions and are emerging topics in the field of climate action planning. A move to a more circular economy, where goods and materials are created in the region, consumed in the region, and reused in the region would grow local and regional wealth, reduce emissions and would also indirectly resolve lifecycle emissions issues associated with packaging, plastics, animal agriculture, and other harmful wastes. However, these topics sit outside the traditional fields the City engages in and will require substantial time and resource investments from community groups, businesses, and partners to achieve. The City will monitor regional activities in this space and will consider including more detailed information on these additional topics in the 2022 Climate Action Plan. Equity, Quality of Life, and Economic Development Opportunities Food waste and lawn and garden waste are the primary components of green waste. While many families in the region go hungry, prepared food and produce are sent to the landfill. As a part of the strategy to reduce landfilled organic matter, the City will develop and implement a program to increase existing food rescue by 20 percent. viii https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652616321023?via%3Dihub Circular Economy Goal: 75 percent reduction of landfilled organic waste by 2025; 90 percent reduction by 2035 Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 39,000 MTCO2e Packet Page 175 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 17 City Leadership The City has exhibited leadership by working with IWMA to develop, deliver, and operate one of the only anerobic digesters in the nation. This already achieved foundational action allows the community’s green waste to create clean electricity and high-quality compost. Proposed Actions Circular Economy focuses on reducing landfilled waste, diverting organic waste, and establishing staff capacity to achieve these outcomes. A focus on larger circular economic themes could be a focus in the next Climate Action Plan. The goals for this pillar are 75 percent reduction in organic waste by 2025; 90 percent reduction by 2035. Table 2.5 provides the proposed Circular Economy foundational actions. Table 2.5. Proposed “Circular Economy” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) 2020-2023 Circular Economy 1 – Organic Waste Diversion Circular Economy 1.1 - Adopt an ordinance requiring organic waste subscription for all residential and commercial customers by 2022 Circular Economy 1.2 – Develop and implement program to increase edible food rescue by 20 percent Circular Economy 1.3 - Develop and implement a waste stream education program for HOA/Property Managers and the commercial sector. Circular Economy 2 – Administrative Capacity Circular Economy 2.1 - Update the Municipal Code solid waste section and bin enclosure standards Circular Economy 2.2 - Develop a Solid Waste section in the Utilities Department Ideas for Partners • Prepare a consumption-based greenhouse gas inventory for the 2023 CAP. • Phase out single-use plastics in food and beverage packaging, storage and distribution. • Develop the first “Zero Waste” Farmer’s Market. • Support new businesses that create zero waste options for public and private events. • Collaborate with the City to develop effective education programs for HOAs and Property Managers. • Establish and maintain metrics surrounding regional edible food rescue. • Make public a visual mapping of facilities that accept and distribute edible food to those in need. • Work with local businesses to recover prepared food. • Increase efforts against disposal non-compliance and contamination at the curbside and disposal facilities. • Align regional messaging related to recycling, organics and zero waste. • Increase materials recycled through sorting proficiencies. Packet Page 176 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 18 2.6 Natural Solutions The City’s Greenbelt and Urban Forest provide valuable benefits to the community including the conservation of natural resources and maintenance of ecosystem services, nearby access to passive recreation opportunities, compact urban form, climate resilience benefits, and storing carbon in the soil. Peer-reviewed research indicates substantial carbon sequestration can accrue in grassland systems with compost applicationix and emerging research suggests even more significant results may be achieved through regenerative farming practices. Emissions Sector Addressed A Carbon Farm Plan will be developed for the City’s Johnson Ranch Open Space and Calle Joaquin Agricultural Reserve (“City Farm”) in 2020 with pilot implementation of compost application and monitoring conducted beginning in 2021. Following this initial period, it is anticipated that an additional 100 acres per year could receive compost applications on lands within the San Luis Obispo Greenbelt through partnerships with local farmers and ranchers. The modeled cumulative effect of this action sequesters 33,000 MTCO2e over the fifteen-year time horizon (2020-2035). A group of local citizens have also approached the City with an ambitious tree planting campaign, preliminarily being called 10 Tall: An Initiative to Plant 10,000 Trees in San Luis Obispo by 2035. While some of these trees can be planted in existing vacant tree wells and City parks, the vast majority would need to be low-cost, one gallon starts of native trees to be planted in City open space properties and other natural or rangeland areas. An ambitious tree planting program of this size would need to rely on substantial partnerships and resources. The modeled cumulative effect of this action sequesters 24,000 MTCO2e over the fifteen-year time horizon (2020-2035). Several key unknowns exist including a standard protocol for accounting for emissions already sequestered or emitted from the City’s urban forest or open spaces, the effectiveness of sequestration practices in the climatic and soil conditions present in and around the city, and protocol for accounting for emissions savings that occur outside of city limits. In future Climate Action Plan updates, the City could choose to include emissions sectors for natural systems in the greenhouse gas emissions inventory and account for existing carbon stocks through land conservation and negative emissions associated with carbon farming and tree planting. Equity, Quality of Life, and Economic Development Opportunities The City’s Greenbelt Protection Program is typically identified by residents as a top priority. This system of protected natural resources and conserved landscapes is central to maintaining the City’s identity and unique sense of place. Over 50 miles of trails are available to all and provide ix Silver, Whendee, Sintana Vergara, Allegra Mayer. (University of California, Berkeley). 2018. Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Composting and Soil Amendments on California’s Rangelands. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Natural Resources Agency. Publication number: CCCA4-CNRA2018-002. Natural Solutions Goal: Increase carbon sequestration on the San Luis Obispo Greenbelt and Urban Forest through compost application- based carbon farming activities and tree planting; ongoing through 2035 Potential Total Emissions Reductions in 2035: 7,000 MTCO2e Packet Page 177 Item 10 City of San Luis Obispo – DRAFT Carbon Neutral Vision and Strategic Approach Page 19 access to no-cost passive recreation. Urban forests, green space, and open space have well documented mental health benefits and property value benefits. In addition to carbon sequestration, the City’s Greenbelt and Urban Forest provide tremendous climate resilience benefits including shading and cooling, stormwater management and watershed protection, and buffering from catastrophic flooding and wildfires. The operation and maintenance of these programs supports jobs, enhances property values, and results in economic multiplier effects across numerous sectors. Carbon farming activities also support local farmers and ranchers and the agricultural economy. City Leadership The City has been participating in national and international carbon sequestration working groups through the Urban Sustainability Directors’ Network (USDN) and the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance (CNCA). The City looks to be at the forefront of research to better understand how to manage healthy natural resources in a changing climate while also removing climate pollution from the atmosphere and storing it in the soil. The City’s next leadership steps are to participate in a forthcoming USDN Innovation Fund grant in partnership with numerous other leading cities. Proposed Actions Natural Solutions focuses on supporting research and pilot projects, with eventual goals of scaling efforts, for regenerative agriculture practices, compost application on rangeland, and a substantial tree planting campaign. Table 2.6 provides the proposed Natural Solutions foundational actions. Table 2.6. Proposed “Natural Solutions” Foundational Actions (2020-2023) 2020-2023 Natural Solutions 1 – Carbon Farming Natural Solutions 1.1 - Conduct Carbon Farming Study and Pilot Project at Johnson Ranch Open Space and City Farm beginning in 2020 with monitoring through 2023. If determined feasible and cost effective, apply compost to first annual 100 acres by 2023 Natural Solutions 2 – Tree Planting Natural Solutions 2.1 - Prepare the City’s first Urban Forest Master Plan that updates the existing tree inventory, identifies future tree planting opportunities and a climate-ready tree palette, as well as ongoing operations and maintenance needs Natural Solutions 2.2 - Identify and participate in partnership opportunities by 2021 necessary to plant and maintain 10,000 new trees by 2035 Ideas for Partners • Provide technical assistance, research, and ongoing citizen science monitoring in the Carbon Farm planning and implementation process • Develop a trained volunteer network and structure to plant and maintain 10,000 trees Packet Page 178 Item 10