HomeMy WebLinkAbout04/16/2002, - AIR SERVICE MARKET STUDY-DRAFT ATTACHMENT 3
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STUDY PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this report is to review and evaluate the potential for attracting commercial
service to the Paso Robles Municipal Airport located in the Northern portion of San Luis Obispo
County. The San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG), the lead transportation
planning agency in the county, along with the City of Paso Robles undertook a comprehensive
regional air service analysis in order to assess the true demand potential of the market area. The
study included examining portions of Monterey County as well as San Luis Obispo County. The
study was conducted from October 2001 through January 2002. In addition to determining the
potential market size, the study also analyzed the air travel characteristics of the market and
assessed the likely potential of an airline initiating commercial service at the Paso Robles
Municipal Airport.
The market analysis began with an assessment of both San Luis Obispo Regional (SBP)
and Paso Robles Municipal Airports (PRB). As a first step in evaluating the market potential for
commercial service at any airport, both published and primary data must be analyzed. The
published data examined included an analysis of the Department of Transportation (DOT) ticket
sample. This information is derived from the DOT and includes a 10% sample of tickets from
the entire US air travel market, and includes all US airlines and commercial service airport
activity. The DOT data is continually updated every quarter. The information includes current
passenger demand levels, traffic growth, top markets, average airfares, airline load factors
(percentage of seats filled), aircraft operating cost, passenger enplanement levels, aircraft
utilization and carrier market share. In addition, the worldwide Official Airline Guide (OAG)
schedules were also analyzed. The OAG analysis examined historic trends, changes in service
levels, aircraft seats and service by market.
There has been no published DOT traffic data at Paso Robles in over 20 years since
commercial scheduled service was discontinued on a regular basis in 1980. In 1987 Delta
Express/Skywest Airlines served the market with 18 seat Metroliner turboprop aircraft for a few
months' but beyond this activity there has been no new air travel data to analyze as part of this
market study.
The study analyzed air service activity at the San Luis Obispo Regional Airport including
the size of its air travel demand market and the extent of the current "catchment" or service area.
This data reveals an accurate picture of the current air service market including traffic generated
by the North County including Paso Robles. The analysis evaluated the existing Department of
Transportation (DOT) data including San Luis Obispo''s history of passenger demand and service
provided by commercial airlines, carrier performance and growth trends. In addition, the
county's demographic profile was summarized including historic and forecast population growth
and income, major employers and business sector employment within the county and tourism
and visitor characteristics.
A competitive assessment was also performed profiling airports within the region, the drive
time and distance to these facilities and their respective service characteristics. In addition
historic passenger and service trends at these nearby airports and demographic characteristics in
the adjacent counties were also examined.
Delta Express/Skywest Regional offered daily departures to Fresno (1), Santa Barbara (3), San Luis Obispo (2)
and Santa Maria(3),August 1987,OAG schedules.
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Ar- "HNIENT 00 1
The market analysis was supplemented by the results of a ticket lift survey of area
agencies that helped identify "leakage" of passengers to other airports serving the region. This
primary research was performed over a three-month period and the results helped to increase the
current market size reported by the DOT. This primary research supported the estimate of the
potential market size and helped determine the likelihood of a carver initiating commercial
scheduled service at Paso Robles Municipal Airport.
Finally an evaluation of the role of the, regional jet (RJ) within the region and more
specifically in San Luis Obispo County was examined. Preliminary data suggests the San Luis
Obispo market could support regional jet aircraft. Within the last few years, airports within the
Central Coast Region have been receiving service by RJ aircraft, however facility limitations
exist at San Luis Obispo Regional Airport.
The study assessment determined that although the air travel is growing it would be
unlikely given the current market size and close proximity of Paso Robels Municipal Airport to
San Luis Obispo Regional Airport, that a commercial carrier would initiate service at a second
facility within the county. However this should not deter Paso Robles Municipal Airport and the
City of Paso Robles from examining non-commercial airport opportunities at its new airport
terminal. There are other revenue generating activities for airports to explore such as corporate
general aviation, industrial park activity, aviation maintenance-related business, etc. The City of
Paso Robles should conduct a strategic planning initiative to explore the various options that
potentially could successfully develop at Paso Robles Municipal Airport.
SERVICE AREA AND
REGION The Central Coast Region of California Includes the
Counties of San Luis O bispo,Santa Barbara and Monterey
San Luis Obispo County is part
of the Central Coast Region of
California. This region also includes
Monterey and Santa Barbara a8 .
Counties. San Luis Obispo is g 1 2000 %Increaso
County Population tMrn 1990
equidistant between Los Angeles and "s:°.
e u°a"ym.», San WGOoispo 24e,681 13.6%
San Francisco and in 2000, the county ° Monsey 401,762 13.0%
had a population of almost 246,700 an '; _ 9 �nta 9 °"m 399.3x7 8.0%
�� Region Stb1=1 1,047,790 11.2%
increase of over 13% from the 1990 caleoma 33.671.6x6 13.6%
leve12. The three county central coast Repon
Percent 61
CA Pop 3.1% 3.2%
region accounts for 3.2% of theN
California's population and isa
characterized as predominantly rural
with concentrated areas ofulation
o
P P setrce:us Censas 2000 =°
along the coast and within select cities
adjacent to the 101 Highway corridor. San Luis Obispo is the least populated county within the
Central Coast Region but has experienced the highest population growth of the tri-county area
and has kept pace with California's population increase over the last decade.
US Census 2000
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The Central Coast region covers P
three counties and contains over Monterey Vicini V 33°6 Ot1T P7linedale�+clmty
9,300 square miles with a coastline sa
approximately 300 miles long. sdfodad,Greamoeid,K)ig City :
Within this area the size of 9
Vermont, the population is
extremely concentrated. In = -
Monterey County, over 80% of the 4--x
, pas °b�,Templeton,A,�dem
population reside in the Northern
14.1% orto,Los Osos,Cayucas J
most cities including Monterey and ``San Lob _1O
Salinas. Between Salinas in
23% Grover,A yo Grande,Pismo and Vicin :..,
Monterey County and Paso Robles ���
in San Luis Obispo County, there , ,a,9",aLompacVlAi}�
is an area of approximately 100 Santa aarftm
miles where the population is population Concentration
extremely sparse. The service or By County
catchment area around the Paso °
Robles Municipal airport would
draw mainly from the South and
West. The San Luis Obispo Regional Airport is a 42-mile drive on Highway 101 South of Paso
Robles Municipal Airport. Between these two facilities is the Cuesta Grade, a mountain range
that runs diagonally through the county from Northwest to Southeast. Over 60% of the county
population is located South of the Cuesta Grade and given its isolation and the driving distance
to the closest alternative
airports, San Luis Obispo Paso Robles and San Luis Obispo YVould Share
Regional Airport's a Significant Overlapping Service Area
catchment service area
essentially includes the
Fenno County
entire county.
King County
Within a 30-mile radius, the
.Paso Robles and San Luis
Obispo Airports service 0
area would significantly ==�o 0 ,<��nd
overlap and would not be 0
considered an attractive o 0 0
characteristic to the existing q
carriers serving the market.
Airlines would take the
view that they already serve y@`
3D Ar.
the market area and would +�a •"
be averse to adding a
second station cost to their SBP Includes a%of N.Santa Barbara County Pop(115,148);PRB Includes Monterey,Fresno.King,Kern Counties(5.492)
operation in exchange for a few incremental passengers. Additionally, a carrier that does not
serve the San Luis Obispo Regional Airport currently would not likely take the dual risk of
SH&E, Inc. A- 1- 5 Page 3
initiating service in both an untested market and at an untested airport given the rela
smaller size of the overall air travel market. Initiating service in a market is a risk an airline does
not enter into lightly, particularly in the current airline environment. In many instances carvers
expect risk-sharing to take place particularly within smaller communities. In addition to a
market having strong economic factors pointing to immediate profitability there are expectations
that a community will share in some of the risk with an airline. Examples of risk sharing include
marketing support of new service to a community, waiving landing fees and terminal costs, local
business commitment to spend an annual dollar value to use the services, etc. The challenge of
attracting service to an airport where there has been no commercial activity for over 20 years
would be viewed as even riskier to an airline.
Airlines consider a number of factors when evaluating a market area's potential and the
likelihood of initiating service that will be profitable. Among the more important factors include
the current air traffic demand (market size), the historic traffic trends and the outlook for growth.
Additionally isolation from competing airports and convenience of alternative airports and their
service advantages are weighed heavily in a carrier decision to serve a market. Other factors also
include local air travel generators such as the economic base, business profile and industry
characteristics, tourist attractions and seasonality patterns.
The four commercial service
airports within the Central California-Ls Central Coast Region
Coast Region are served by is Served By Four Airports
the regional operation of
three Major US carriers,
eAmerican and B0
America West'. These three am
carvers dominate the small
community markets of
California with United and
.8
American serving over 80% Central Coast Airport's Current Service
of the region (59% and 23% Wr u, °' °' ���
"S
coin Fu„wel M.qc Oo° Snu,CaPs s0A1[bP,O roram atrnnac 4eiirwa r�
market share respectively). :aa aMe.mm a se am Tem a e AkU%W.a
MRYMa w ° M M +m M ] M Wl,@ rn+r
The service is predominantly SW s.W.�� i a M ° M °
rmc Sege,MM , e IN e m
short haul t is'ranging "� """""" ° 4 "'a"°
� g aooiM,.�.,pw ° � e.,m
between 77 and 600 miles"
I
utilizing turbopor source:Official Aidine Guide(OAG).January 2002 + '
rop
regional jet aircraft in select
markets connecting to large hub airports such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Salt
Lake City . Significant connecting flight opportunities are available from these international
gateway airports to destinations worldwide. The overall air passenger growth for the region has
averaged 1.8% annually over the last ten years. While the passenger growth in the US has grown
on average 3.2% annually.
'UA=United;AA=American;HP=America West Airlines
�[ ' Santa Barbara service to Denver is the exception at approximately 900 miles,OAG Schedules,February 2002
�f `Salt Lake City service is from Santa Barbara only
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Oil
The Northern California airports are located within a two and one-half to almost four hour AP-
San Luis Obispo County is approximately 220 miles from San Francisco, 140 from Monterey
and 190 from San Jose Airports. The Southern California airports are located within a 35 mile to
196 mile distance from San Luis Obispo County. Santa Maria, Santa Barbara and Los Angeles
Airport are within a range of approximately 45 minutes to three and one-half hour drive.
Santa Barbara(SBA) is the largest of these airports; not surprisingly it is also the most populated
county within the region. Santa Barbara has 36 daily flights to 6 connecting hub airport
destinations. The most recent Department of Transportation (DOT) data reports Santa Barbara's
domestic air travel market demand at over 721,000 annual passengers. In the last decade SBA's
average passenger growth has increased 2.3% annually. Santa Barbara was served by United
Shuttle with small jet service (737 aircraft and 108 seats). Recently, United discontinued its
shuttle operation and regional jet aircraft flying (50 seats) has replaced its small jet service. In
addition, America West Express is serving Santa Barbara with RJ aircraft to its Phoenix hub and
Sky West/Delta Connection, is flying RJ aircraft to Salt Lake City.
The second largest airport within the region is Monterey (MRY)with 24 daily departures to three
nonstop markets (Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix) and has a market demand of over
424,000 domestic air travelers (YE1Q2001). MRY's domestic air travel demand has
experienced an overall annual decrease of less than 1% in the last decade. However within the
last year America West Express has been serving Monterey to Phoenix with RJ aircraft and
I onterey is actively pursuing additionallUservice by other airlines.
San Luis Obispo Regional Airport with 23 daily flights to three connecting hub markets (Los
ge es, an Francisco and Phoenix is served b non-'et aircraft anas a domestic market
demand of almost 280,000 (YE1Q2001). San Luis Obispo Regional Airport's domestic O&D
traffic hasaveraged 5.7% annually.- San Luis Obispo is served by United Express, American
Eagle and America West Express. United and American have a long history of providing service
to this market.
Santa Maria Airport is the smallest of the four
Central Coast Airports. Santa Maria is served
by one airline utilizing non jet connecting
service to Los Angeles. Santa Maria's Santa Barbara
SMx County
domestic air travel market has almost 80,000 rimary Runway Length
annual passengers. As of February 2000 6,304 feet
United Express serves Santa Maria with three
daily flights to Los Angeles. Santa Maria has
experienced a declining service and traffic64 Miles, 1 Hour
level within the last decade and it seems 101
likely that this trend will continue. Its close
proximity to Santa Barbara Airport (40 miles) Primary Runway Length
along with Santa Barbara's increasing service 6,052reet
ORD is Origin and Destination air travel and measures demand into and out of a market area.
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level has contributed to Santa Maria's declining airline activity. It appears that the market size of
the Santa Barbara County is not significant enough to support commercial service by two airport
facilities.
a Barbara and Santa Maria Airpo
Daily Nonstop Departures by Carrier FT
August 1987-2001
�4 69 O
70'- MCC
w«
B 50 aHP
w v o Us
A
o AA
m — o UA
o:- oDL
1987 1990 1994 1998 2001
ao
S ■AA
as{
E3 UA
M ui aOL
X p. _
14
101 —..__.
Si --
0
1987 1990 1994 1998 2001
source:OA
THE SAN LUIS OBISPO MARKET
Currently there are three publicly owned and San Luis Obispo County Has One Commercial
operated airports in San Luis Obispo county. San and Two General Aviation Airport Facilities
Luis Obispo County Regional Airport in central San
Luis Obispo County, Paso Robles Municipal located O
in the Northern region and Oceano situated along the Paso ftwes
-General Aviation
Southern Coast.
San wk Commercial
O�Ispo
Paso Robles Municipal Airport is located in the Service
Northern portion of the county with a primary MOM
runway length of over 6,000 feet. Limited -Basic ne rasa''
commercial scheduled service was mttiated in 1987
for a few months, previous to this activity the airport has not been served since the 1970's. A
two-story 8 000 square foot terminal has recently been completed and is scheduled to open in late
Spring 2002. The average travel distance within the county ranges from 3 to 61 miles and
approximate 10 to 75 minutes.
San Luis Obispo Regional Airport is the primary airport in the county and has the only
commercial service San Luis Obispo Regional Airport acts pnmari y as as
poke point provi 'ng
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ATTACHME?
connecting service and linking the count to the Nati n S stem. SBP is locat '
i central countyand has a prim runwa f 5 300 feet. The average drive time to the
auport ran es from four to 55 mi es and approxima minutes. The terminal is a one
level design building with approximately 10,500 square feet and one airline gate.
Passenger enplanement growth, typically a measure of demand at an airport, has increased
steadily at SBP within the last decade, averaging 4.5% per year: The national average has
growth at 3.4% indicating SBP has performed above average at an unprecedented time of growth
in the aviation industry. Despite the increase in passenger levels the airport has not been able to
support service to more than three markets for any real length of time. In the last ten years
service to other destinations beyond the markets currently served has not yielded long term
success.
At its Peak San Luis Obispo Supported
Passenger Enplanement Levels Have Five Nonstop Markets in the Last Decade
Grown Steadily in the Last Decade •
August Daily Departums and Markets Solved 19914001
San Luis Obispo Regonaf Airport Passaiga EnplaleneitE991-2001
LAVOrage Annual Grrnrtn
rao.=t_ CA 3.46LU3. 3AX
uo,ao6
i
191 '92 93 '96 '95 '99 97 '89 '89 '00 01
i6o,a99
Elm IN
WON
a6.eao 1
1881 1994 7993 7896 1895 7998 1987 1980 7898 2009 7001 awor oho smww.
S,v=Odeon Ream.U9DOT.73aMTICna .
In the last two years, overall carrier performance as measured by load factor level has been
healthy. Load factor levels or the percentage of seats that are full on an aircraft serving the San
Luis Obispo market has average almost 60%. This is a healthy level for non-jet, 33-50 seat
aircraft with the typical industry load factor averageranging from 4500- o or non-jet
equipment-
As
quipment:
As an airline evaluates the attractiveness of a market, demographic factors are also weighed
heavily in a carrier's decision to serve a new area. The demographic characteristics an airline
examines as it considers serving a market include the population base, income level and business
community characteristics. Historic trends in growth as well as the outlook for growth are
evaluated. Unemployment rates are also reviewed and employment sec ors that tonically havea
eer propensity to travel are examined. Favorable demographic characteristics Include:
■✓High population growth(historic and projected)
■{ Relatively large population base
■(/Relatively higher income levels
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ATTAN, A
IT 3
Dff'V All
• Business sectors in growth industries requiring frequent air travel
■ Destination markets (air travel tourists) Paso Robles and San Luis Obispo County
Experienced Healthy Population Growth
The demographic characteristics of the overall
San Luis Obispo County market show a steady 1995.2000 Percent Change in Population
growth rate in the population. San Luis Obispo
County's population level currently is 246,680, 6.6
including the 24,000 within the City of Paso S.6x
Robles. Paso Robles population has increased
considerably in the last five years growing
M
almost 9%. Atascadero, a city located just
south of Paso Robles but North of Cuesta ION
I''
Grade has a population level similar in size to
Paso at 26,300. The overall county' o ulation Paso SanLuisSan Luis Central Coast California
•J l� 1� Robles Obispo Obispo Courcy
has grown by over 3% in the last five years and
is projected to increase 5.8%.by 2005. The r--:US Comm.sat'ane MaMetl q h°mC Cnnl a Cum^San L is OOkaa.Mo acrey a a Sana 9a ba a Cou ecs
projected average growth for both the state and the region by 2005 is expected to be 5.6% and
4.5% respectively.
The average per capita income for Paso Robles Paso Robles Per Capita Income is Lower
and San Luis Obispo for 2000 was $15,320 and than the County, State and National Average
$16,026 respectively. The overall average for
the county was $18,729 the region and state $19,076 $19,661
average was almost identical at approximately $16,729
$19,000. The Paso Robles income level is
$75,320
22.3% below that of the county average and
almost 25% lower than the region and state.
Atascadero's per capita income of $20,127 is r
considerably higher than the county, region and "4
state level.
2a<o San Luis San Luis Central Coast California
'ernes Obispo Obispo County
In the last decade, the unemployment rate in
Paso Robles has been higher than the overall Sou m:US Ce ma,Saks and MaM1Ctlae Mp Ccmmrpa95i UIS Oaepo,Mon¢reYatlSa to OaNaa Waaes
county but below the State average. The
unemployment rate as of 2001 for Paso Robles averaged 3.3%. San Luis Obispo County and
California's rate were 2.6% and 4.9%respectively. The overall employment within the county is
dominated by the service, retail trade and government sectors. These three sectors account for
two-thirds of the employment and typically these businesses do not generate a high travel
propensity. Employment sectors,which generate a higher propensity to travel, include wholesale
trade, manufacturing, financial, insurance and real estate. The largest employers in Paso Robles
include the City's public school administration, the correction facility, City government and
Wal-Mart. There does appear to be a small manufacturing and electronics business base
developing including Paris Prescision Products, Life Fitness, Sunbank Electronics, Zum/Wilkins
and Specialty Silicon Fabricators. These companies are predominantly manufacturer's of sheet
metal, exercise equipment, electronics, medical instruments and plumbing supplies. Although
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ATTACHML-AT 3 Dj
they represent a small group of companies it would be beneficial to survey thecharacteristics and needs and evaluate whether corporate general aviation operating frso
Robles could successfully develop for these as well as other business within the North County.
The State of California is so vast and offers such unique geographic environments that the largest
single visitor to California are Californians themselves. The Central California region is an area
that attracts many visitors but it is predominantly a drive market_ San Luis Obispo County
received 5.7 million visitors In 2000, an increase of 100,000 from the year earlier'. A visitor
survey revealed that 69% originated in California'. The cities contributing the greatest number
of visitors to San Luis Obispo County included Los Angeles (35%), San Francisco/San Jose
(22%) and Fresno/Bakersfield (16%). The survey did not ask how visitors traveled (air, car,
etc.). 66% traveled for vacation purposes and 13%primarily visited for business activities. 41%
of the visitors were destined primary for San Luis Obispo followed by Morro Bay and San
Simeon. Other San Luis Obispo County attractions included the Hearst Castle in San Simeon,
the growing vineyard businesses in Paso Robles and the ocean cities, including Pismo Beach.
As the overall air travel market has grown so has the proportion of air travelers generated from
the local San Luis Obispo County area. The outbound air travel market has increased from 53%
in 1990 to almost 60%. Conversely the inbound air travel market has decreased. Seasonality in
the San Luis Obispo air travel market has also changed over the last decade. The peak air travel
seasons have been 3`' and 4"quarter. These two quarters accounted for 51.7% of the total market
in 1990, 52.2% in 1995 and 54.9% in 2000. The visitors survey conducted by the Chamber
found that in 1995 San Luis Obispo's heaviest travel season was the 3`d and 4'h quarter
accounting for 55% of the tourist traffic. There has been a trend in air travel towards the 4°i
quarter. Since 1995 the 4°i quarter has been increasing and the V quarter has been decreasing in
overall air travel passengers. In 1995 the 4" quarter traffic accounted for 25.6% and increased to
29.6% in 2000. 151 quarter traffic in 1995 was 21.5%and in 2000 fell to 20.6%.
TRAVEL AGENCY "TICKET LIFT" SURVEY
In addition to analyzing the published airline activity data,
primary research was also conducted to augment the market 2 Separate Samples
� • Pao Aa6laa
analysis. A travel agency ticket lift survey was performed. C nitna
The primary purpose of this effort is to identify traffic leakage
at the local airport — i.e.. the number of passengers within San �,
Luis Qbispo Countythat bypass the local aimort in favor of • •GWPo"
Lw ossa San lido 2 Separate
larger, more distant airports. The travel agency ticket lift also 0b*, Samples
examined other characteristics of the area's air travel behavior PISMOBea�+, ,,,Maeraade
to help identify reasons for use of non-local airports and local
airport service needs. The data collected from each travel s
agency ticket included origin and destination airport, carrier
flown and fare level. Ten agencies were identified within the
county and asked to participate. Three agreed to share their ticket data. The agencies that
'San Luis Obispo County Visitors and Conference Bureau
' 1995-1996 Visitor Study,San Luis Obispo County Visitors&Conference Bureau
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.(IlunIccrcd their.Ill iimnation were among the larger agencies in the county with ille
-
iocations. In total ').')67 tickets were collected and analyzed.
Thr survey found that 64.2% of the local San San Luis Obispo Regional Airport Enplanes
I uj� ()hispo .ounty assent*Les utilize the local Over 64%of its Local Passengers
air ort- The remaining 35.8% drive to an
aitr'll"LI(c alI'porl `Illd they are considered Percent of Local Passengers Utilizing Alternative Airports
h Isscncrs ,Aho Teak' to another market The
Santa Barbara San Jose(SJR)
hrre Airports attracting the majority of the (SBA) All Other
7.2%
ical:in'z passengers are Los Angeles(17.8%�, San 1.8% <sss
San Francisco(SFO)
Jose 72° and an Francrsco(4.4°/,0� ,,%
international Airports.
Los Angeles
(La)Q
The San Luis Obispo domestic air travel market +7.8%
has 279,730 annual passengers'. This number
Sauw 916E T,welA�y
reflects only those passengers who began or
ended their trip using the San Luis Obispo airport. However from the ticket lift survey of local
travel agents we found that over one-third drive to another airport and thus are not included in
the 279.730 figure. This number is understated and needs to be adjusted to reflect a more
accurate figure. According to the DOT almost 60% of the 279,730 passengers originate in San
Luis Obispo. By adjusting the outbound market of 165,910 accounting for the drive market, the
new outbound market figure becomes 258,261. The total market figure also is revised upwards
to 372:081. This new figure represents the current potential market demand. In other words, the
market total if the drive passengers used the existing airport. Although this level is 33% higher
than the reported figure the size is not significant enough currently to su ort a commercial
j service airport in the Nort i Coun _ Consider for example the two airports in Santa Barbara
County. Santa Barbara has a domestic O&D market of 721,310 and Santa Maria's traffic is
79.910 for a total of 801.000 annual passengers. Santa Maria has experienced a sharp decrease in
service over the last decade to the point where Santa Maria hnc only one camp,• cPrvinoe the
market three times a day. Clearly the service level at Santa Maria has deteriorated as Santa
Barbara's has improved and it seems reason ablP to exnPct given the significant financial
difficulties United is facing that the future for commercial air service in Santa Marta seems
question eSanta Barbara County has the
largest population base in the central coast Carrier Hub Cities in Western States
rc,ion vet it is seems apparent the air travelEvalt-a°ngw.s(emusyubCarrierCltles
demand generated by the service area is not
supporting two airport facilities within a 45
minute drive. San Luis Obispo County, has
rhe smallest population base in the central
^ _ oast reraion an will more than likely face
`SOX the same difficulty should service be
initiated at Paso Robles Municipal Airport.
I IS I1OT O D ticket sample. YEIQ2001
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ATTAC LENT 2 ®�
An evaluation of the airlines serving the Western US was also undertaken to assess
likelihood of initiating service at a new airport facility. Among the factors consider were.the
strategic implications and aircraft equipment as well as existing nearby markets these carriers
already served.
San Luis Obispo County is served by airlines utilizing turbo ronuircraft ranging from 33 to 50
seats. to air roes predominantly serving in the western US who currently do not serve the
market include SkvWcsUDelta Express from Salt Lake City, Horizon/Alaska from Portland or
Seattle and Big Sky, a Billings, Montana-based carrier. One other airline that was considered
included Allegiant Air based in Fresno. Carriers that would consider serving Paso Robles most
likely would begin using non jet aircraft The RJ is an expensive aircraft-to overate and initiating
service at a new airport and a new market would pose too high a risk to a carrier in a small
market. The majority of non jet flying is limited to 500 miles or less as most turboprops have a
range limit and passengers typically do not want to spend more than an hour to 90 minutes on
this aircraft tvpe. ywest, Horizon and Big Sky have non jet equipment however the range
om their respective hub airports extends beyond 500 miles. In addition Delta and Horizon
serve select California markets with Regional Jet aircraft however the majority of these points
are much larger markets than San Luis Obispo's size currently and include Sacramento, Fresno,
Palm Springs, San Jose and Orange County.
Big Sky based in Billings, Montana operates an all turboprop fleet of Metroliner 16 seat aircraft
but the furthest West they serve currently is Spokane and Seattle Washington as well as small
communities in Colorado through Denver International Airport. Allegiant is a Fresno-based start
up carrier flyin- DC9 jet aircraft configured to 100 seats and is currently serving the large casino
market of Las Vegas. The DC9 aircraft is considerably larger than the existing aircraft capacity
at the current airport and Allegiant's strategy is to serve the Las Vegas casino market from
medium-sized markets, the Paso Roble's area does not fit this profile.
One last possibility to consider howeveLis the eventual switch to Regional Jet aircraft in the San
Luis O�ispo market and the potential opportunity this may have for Paso Robles Muntct a]
�i on. The three airlines serving the market currenty lave been aggressive buying and
flying RJ aircraft for their regional fleet over the last half of the 1990's. vert` ua Y th�� earners
will replace their existing turboprops with RJ'a. Although aircraft manufacturers publish lower
figures-and the FAA has certifieda few oft existing ein ca ariina
on less than 5,300 feet, Ri's demand a runway lenpth for takeoff e�e �_Qo�tbc
loaded. The practica operating activities dictate the market and airline o �
_inclined to take the unnecessary risk of a shorter runway or accept a weight pen�(Sencta7e
le+yer�iasscngers). llicrc are no airports beim served in the Ut•rtrrrntly ++-here RI's are,,
d tailing on a r�+'ZIY Shorter than 5 301 cet. an -urs Obispo Re—ional rt currently has
�_,tlO I"ct lila tlrIIII.1 c. Part so Ro e's has rel t run++ v Icm th of oy r o,U( 1. he luigth of
clic Paso Rohlcs iacilm, wool e considered a lavorablc characteristic that +could be weighed
heavily by the existing carriers serving the market should thev decide to begin R.I service and if
the current airport aci ity is not willing or able to ex
lssunung 111th•-load aerrcrx conditions. ambient trmlx:ruure, a\ciagr altiuuk . rrr.
SH&E. Inc. A I Page 11
ATTAGNMR.- J
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The market analysis has provided information for future planning and development actions an
given what has been examined, we recommend the following:
a The current services should continue to be supported, developed and enhanced in the region
■ Paso Robles should assess other revenue-generating activities that could potentially capitalize
on the airport facility such as general aviation business, industrial parks,etc.
■ Analyze further the regional jet opportunities for the county
San Luis Obispo County has a regional airport with a strong level of air service given its
population size and overall economic characteristics. Both the air travel market and population
have been growing and it is important that the county continue to develop and support air service
improvements to its market. Although the market does not appear ready to support two airports
with commercial air service Paso Robles should focus its resources on pursuing other non-
commercial service activities such as developing and expanding its general aviation activity.
The City of Paso Robles should undertake a strategic planning initiative to identify future
opportunities at the Paso Robles Municipal Airport. The plan should prioritize the options
realistically available for the airport to pursue and outline steps to implement a course of action
that can take full advantage of revenue generating activities. This type of planning project should
not require more than a month or two of examination and development. This planning should
involve the City of Paso Robles and the Paso Robles Municipal Airport in order for the activity
to be effective. However, the strategic planning should be directed by an outside industry expert_
in general aviation In addition the Paso Robles Municipal Aim- should have discussions with
other successful all general aviation airports that are located in various parts of the country.
The County of San Luis Obispo should continue to support the current airport and focus on
�allmpting regional yet service to the market. Attracting RJ service will require that the existing
facility have the ability to accommodate this aircraft. the market appears to be developing and
could potentially support this aircraft. The RJ would greatly enhance the service level and
options for all county residents.
The RJ has significantly impacted the industry with its favorable economic characteristics. This
ridentifying
has between 32 and 75 seats, can fly long-range distances of between 1200 to 1800 miles
rve smaller markets profitably. Since 1995, the top US carriers Amer*"1;'.Umte D lte 4'
_Continental and Northwest) have been buying RJ's for their fleet. These—carriers aiaye—replace
of their non-iet aircraft witlii RJ's and are continuing to buy more while retiring the
rops. In addition some airlines like American and Della_have comm
to an�ll RJ fleet
the next few years. encan and Delta are a ready operating an all RJ fleet at their hubs
icago and Atlanta. RJ flying has been increasing in the western US and particularly within
aller communities of California. United and American have initiated RJ service recently
kersfield and Stockton, markets of similar size to San Luis Obi o. Additional market
sis is recommended to determine the likelihood and feasibility of RJ service being initiated
San Luis Obispo market. The analysis should include specific carrier assessments,
fying profitable routes as well as examining the facility requirements and upgrades needed
to accommodate this aircraft type.
SH&E, Inc. Page 12
I� v
ATTAC"MENT 4
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J 0 c1 � y N v o c U The lobby of the $3.2 million Paso Robles ^;;
n 9 o �, c m > o•� a -, ao�� Airport is a lovely,lonely place.
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ATTACHMENT 5
"The regional jet is capable of
CD going into that airport,"
y spokesman Ken Swartz said."Ifs
® 3 not an issue."
Federal Aviation Administration.
d o E o ; z "It's going to be a great service spokesman Jerry Snyder said the
service is appropriate as to as
a i o o m o N o o N to this community,"she saidng
M ,_
m N w< The new aircraft is a Bom- the plane's owners abide by the
( =--------------------------- a hardier Canadair RegionalJet20. manufacturer's recommendation
Q < o It replaces the de Havilland Dash for the aircraft.
U ;
ATTACHMENT 1P
Another view
of Paso's
airport
akieditorial pot-shots at
r Pasong Robles says very little
about your newspaper's objec-
tivity.
bjeo-tivity.
What should we have done
with that$U million?Donated
it to SLD?
Paso planners Have awak-
ened
wakened to the fact that building
what we"need"is not cost ef-
fective to budding what we
`swill need"based on past pro-
jects;such as the Niblick
Bridge.:..:
Why not ket your facts
straight before you make your-
self look foolish by making
statements like SLO'.s•airport
is"maintaining plenty'of capac-
ity for future growth."
The one huge fact that you
chose not to mention is the
limited runway length and
availability of land to extend... _..
that to accommodate full-sized
aircraft
This"solid commitment"
you speak of by the airlines
now servicing SLD is nothing
but words.If you doubt how
volatile the airline market is
right now,then you should
start reading the newspapers.
Paso Robles Airport will at-
tract
ttract the business it needs and
will need to grow because it
makes the most sense.
rm thankful The Tribune
doesn'tdecide these issues for
us.
Tom Leather wood
president&CEO Mite
Aviation Inc.
Paso Robles