HomeMy WebLinkAbout02-16-2016 Public Comment, CooperCOUNCIL MEETINCi:�,�
ITEMNO.: G fL Qy►11Ky-
To: Maier, John Paul
Subject: RE: Recommendation For A Building Moratorium _ -
FEB 16 2016
From: Allan Cooper [
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2016 4:27 AM
I
To: E-mail Council Website; Marx, Jan; Carpenter, Dan; Christianson, Carlyn; Ashbaugh, John; Rivoire, Dan; Lichtig,
Katie; Johnson, Derek; Codron, Michael
Subject: Recommendation For A Building Moratorium
Honorable Mayor and Council Members -
Many of us are concerned about immediate and future residential and workforce growth
demands on our current dwindling water supply and overtaxed infrastructure. As you well
know, we are in the midst of a 4-5 year drought and this drought will most likely continue
given the fact that we are sadly experiencing all the harbinger signs of climate change.
Because of this, I was asked to compile a list of current development projects in San Luis
Obispo and specific plans under consideration.
It is not hard, employing a number of well -tested algorithms, to extrapolate residential and
workforce growth based on the number of housing units, the square foot of commercial
space, the square foot of office space and the number of hotel rooms that are currently in
the pipeline. I compared these numbers with the potential 2035 housing unit build out
numbers if we meet our growth cap of one percent per year over the five-year Housing
Element planning period. I was surprised and alarmed to discover that what we have in
the pipeline will result in growth very nearly approaching the 2035 projections. No matter
which growth model you choose to use, considering our current and future water supply,
this growth is unsustainable.
Today during the public comment period for items not on the agenda, Elisabeth Abrahams
will speak to you about these concerns. The numbers she will be using are based on the
research I have done. She will be recommending a temporary growth moratorium during
which the City can reassess how much growth this City can actually sustain over the next
19 years.
In anticipation of her presentation, I am asking you to quickly scan over the attachment
below should you wish to better understand the full implications of this analysis. Thank
you.
Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo
The following addresses the projected number of housing units and population in 2035
based on SLO's amended housing unit growth cap (a 2010 Housing Element
amendment), the approximate number of housing units in the pipeline (a number which
nearly meets' the Housing Element's projection for 2035), the square foot of commercial
space in the pipeline, the square foot of office space in the pipeline, the number of hotel
rooms in the pipeline, the projected number of additional residents and employees in the
pipeline, our projected jobs/housing imbalance (which will remain relatively unchanged)
and the projected additional acre/feet of water consumption required to service all of the
above projects in the pipeline with a worst case timeline for operational minimum pool.
Submitted by Allan Cooper, 2:30 A.M., February 10, 2016.
SLO's Housing Unit Growth Cap
The General Plan says that "the City's housing supply shall grow no faster than one percent per
year." This policy was modified in 2010 to an average of one percent per year over the five-
year Housing Element planning period. The policy change responded to slow residential growth
trends combined with the phasing and financing plans incorporated into the Margarita and
Orcutt Specific Plan Areas. The Residential Growth Management Regulations requires each
specific plan area to adopt a phasing schedule for residential growth to ensure that established
thresholds in the Land Use Element are not exceeded. As shown in Table A-18, annual
increases in the number of dwellings have averaged 0.45 percent over the past ten years. Units
that are deed -restricted as affordable to extremely low, very low, low and moderate income
households are not factored into the Growth Management Schedule because they are exempt
from the Growth Management Ordinance. Dwellings built in the downtown area are also
exempt.
See: http://www.slocity.org/Home/ShowDocument?id=3728 &
http-:I/www.slociMorcVhome/Showdocument?id=5204 &
http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PUenvironmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+-+Final
+EI R/4.12+Population+and+Housing. pdf
Residential Development — Net Change Due To Completed Construction 2003 — 2013
2010
89 units
.27%
2011
85 units
.20%
2012
34 units
.17%
2013
92 units
.38%
Unit shortfall
# units we should have had in 2013
1% = 330
1% = 425
1% = 200
1% = 242
897
897 + 20,697 = 21,594
1 If no more housing projects were approved from this day on through to 2035 - 19 years from
now - we would have 25,515 housing units in SLO (i.e., by the time all the above projects in the
pipeline are completed and excluding the Froom Ranch assisted elder care units). The City's
"build out" for 2035 (employing its more liberal growth cap target) is approximately 26,376. This
would mean that the City could only permit 861 more housing units over the next 19 years!
6.1 Consistent with the growth management portion of its Land Use Element and the availability
of adequate resources, the City will plan to accommodate up to 1,144 dwelling units between
January 2014 and June 2019 in accordance with the assigned Regional Housing Needs
Allocation.
# units we should have in 2019 = 21,594 + 1,144 = 22,738
Build -Out Housing Units We Should Have By 2035 Based On SLO's Housing Unit Growth
Cap:
22,738 x 116% (1 % growth 2019-2035) = 26,376 projected no. units
Disclaimers: This number would likely be higher as I did not compound the 1% growth on either
an annualized or 5 year basis. This number would likely be even higher as I did not factor in
exemptions for downtown dwellings and affordable to very -low-income households.
Housing Unit - Population Conversion:
26,376 units x 2.35 household size = 61,984 population in 2035
New housing units in the pipeline: (italics = exempted from 1 % growth
cap)
Avila Ranch Specific Plan
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
Margarita Area Specific Plan
Orcutt Area Specific Plan
Chinatown Project
Garden Street Terraces Project
Monterey Place Project
71 Palomar Ave. Project
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone)
San Luis Square Project
The Junction Project
SLO Terrace Project
Caudill Mixed Use Project
The Yard Project
860 Humbert Project
Toscano Moresco Project
Mangano Homes Tract
Laurel Creek Project
Wingate Homes Project
Imel Project
Righetti Ranch Project
Coker Ellsworth Project
Fremont Square Project
460 Marsh Street Project
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
720 units
500 units
868 units
731 units
16 units
8 units
23 units
41 units
26,000 sq.ft. = 26 units?
48 units
69 units
17 units
36 units
43 units
20 units
18 units
177 units
117 units
78 units
18 units
304 units
35 units
21 units
4 units
275 units
341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units)
275 independent care apts. (one occupant units)
Total
Total existing plus new
Housing Unit - Resident Conversion:
4,202 x 2.35 + 616 single occupant apts
46,377 current residents =
LUCE projected 2035 build -out pop.
Total current no. units
% increase in no. units
4,818 units (166 units exempted from growth cap)
20,697 + 4,818 = 25,515 units
= 10,491 more residents +
56,868 residents = 23% increase in population
when all above projects are completed
58,626
20,697 units (2013)
23% increase in housing units
New commercial space in the pipeline:
Avila Ranch Specific Plan
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
Orcutt Area Specific Plan
Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan
Chinatown Project
Garden Street Terraces Project
Monterey Place Project
University Square Project
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone)
San Luis Square Project
The Junction Project
Caudill Mixed Use Project
Long-Bonetti Ranch Market Place
Airport Business Center
Fremont Square Project
Froom Ranch Specific Plan
Total
Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion:
894,319 sq.ft. divided by 400 =
15,000 sq.ft.
200,000 sq.ft.
8,000 sq.ft.
370,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-8 http:H
www.slocounV.ca.aov/Assets/PL/
environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+-
+Final+El R/2.0+Project+Description. pdf)
51,150 sq.ft.
14, 341 sq.ft.
16,400 sq.ft.
20,000 sq.ft.
20,000 sq.ft.
21,322 sq.ft.
5,800 sq.ft.
5,327 sq.ft
19,079 sq.ft.
75,000 sq.ft.
7,900 sq.ft.
45,000 sq.ft.
894,319 sq.ft.
2,236 more commercial employees
New office space in the pipeline:
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
Airport Area Specific Plan (AASP)
(includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan)
150,000 sq.ft.
3,361,090 sq.ft. NI (Table 4.1 n 2005 Version
San Luis Obispo Airport Area Specific Plan
Land Use Program And Development
Capacities: http://www,slocity.ora/homel
showdocument?id=4294)
Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan
Chinatown Project
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone)
Aerovista Place Project
Aerovista Office Buildings
Fremont Square Project
Total
Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion:
921,093 sq.ft. divided by 125 =
363,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-9 http://
www.slocounty.ca.aov/Assets/PU
environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+-
+Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf)
5,630 sq.ft.
33,000 sq.ft.
37,230 sq.ft.
36,833 sq.ft.
49,400 sq.ft.
921,093 sq.ft. (AASP sq.ft. not included)
7,369 more office employees
New hotel development in the pipeline:
ChevronlTank Farm Specific Plan
San Luis Ranch Specific Plan
Chinatown Project
Garden Street Terraces Project
Monterey Place Project
Motel Inn Project
Monterey Hotel
Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone)
Calle Joaquin Hotel Development
Granada Hotel Addition
Total
Hotel Room - Workforce Conversion:
838 rooms x 0.625 =
115 rooms
200 rooms
78 rooms
64 rooms
11 rooms
52 rooms
102 rooms
80 rooms
114 rooms (contested by Steve Marx)
22 rooms
838 rooms
524 more hotel employees
Nursing Home - Workforce Conversion:
341 x 1.16 = 396 more nursing home employees
Total additional employees
Total employees
Resident - Workforce Conversion:
U.S. census: 60.5% pop. in labor force
10,525 more employees
31,000 current + 10,525 = 41,525 or 34%
increase
10,525 x.605 = 6,368 new residents in labor force
Total Increase In Workforce Residing In SLO:
6,700 current + 6,368 new = 13,068 out of a projected 41,525 employees = jobs
to housing imbalance of 31% compared to 22%
currently
Average Water Consumption Per Land Use & A City of SLO 2015
Water Resources Status Report
Average daily gallons per San Luis Obispo resident Dec. 2015: 44.89
Average daily gallons per occupied hotel room: 218.00
(see: http://www.responsibletravelreport.com/component/contentlarticle/2656-green-hotels)
Average no. gallons per restaurant meal: 9.90
Average daily gallons per office employee: 127.00
Average daily. gallons per miscellaneous retail employee: 152.00
(see: ht : / in t. r /w - n n l /2 1 / / n `x e , f)
10,491 more residents
838 more hotel rooms
7,369 more office workers
2,236 more retail workers
Total
Equivalent additional population:
1,929,360 divided by 325,851 x 365 =
In 2015 San Luis Obispo total water use
(for a population of 45,802)
Total water resource demand with build out
Total water resource availability in 2015
470,941 more gallons/day
182,684 more gallons/day
935,863 more gallons/day
339,872 more gallons/day
1,929,360 more gallons/day
42,980 more residents
(excluding additional restaurant
related water impacts)
2,161 more acre feet/year
4,990 acre feet/year
7,151 acre feet/year
10,005 acre feet/year
"New worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014) indicates the City
has approximately a three year supply of water as of September 2015."
see: City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report: ham://www.slggKyDigllhgne/
shmdQQwment?id=6371
see: Water Supply Assessment for the Chevron Tankfarm Development Project: http://
www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PUenvironmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l I I+ -+Technical
+Appendices/Appendix+G.1-SB+610+Report+-City+Development+Plan.pdf
Population, Water Use & Rainfall
Year Population Total Water Per Capita Rainfall (inches)
Use (acre ft.) (gpcd)
2006 44,559 5,999 120.2 17.2
2007 44,433 6,493 130.5 12.7
2008 44,579 6,359 127.3 18.1
2009
44,829
6,134
122.2
18.9
2010
44,948
5,489
109.0
36.0
2011
45,418
5,285
103.9
18.9
2012
45,308
5,541
109.2
21.5
2013
45,541
5,892
115.5
3.8
2014
45,473
5,524
108.5
14.2
2015
45,802
4,990
97.3
11.8
Ten-year per capita average:
114.4
2015 & Pipeline Build Out Water Resource Availability
Water Resource
Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs
Nacimiento Reservoir
Recycled Water
Siltation from 2010 to 2060
Total
Total used in SLO in 2015
Total with current build out
Acre Feet Description
6,940 Safe Annual Yield (1)
(out of a current capacity of 15,407)
3,380 Dependable Yield (2)
185 2014 Annual Usage (3)
(500) WWME Policy A 4.2.2 (4)
10,005 2015 Annual Availability
4,990
7,151
NOTES:
(1) Safe Annual Yield determined from computer model, which accounts for siltation loss
through 2010 (per WWME Policy A 4.2.1). "Safe Annual Yield" is the quantity of water that can
be utilized consistently and reliably over an extended period of time. The extended period of
time must be long enough to establish patterns that would include a worst case drought
scenario.
(2) Dependable Yield is the contractual amount (MY NOTE: not the actual amount remaining as
Nacimiento is now at 22% capacity or 83,600 acre feet in 2015) of water the City has rights to
from Nacimiento Reservoir.
(3) The quantity of recycled water included is the actual prior year's recycled water usage
(calendar year 2014) per WWME Policy A 7.2.2.
(4) Reservoir siltation is a natural occurrence that reduces storage capacity over long periods,
resulting in the reduction of safe annual yield.
Executive Summary
What is not explained is how Nacimiento Reservoir (377,000 acre feet) and Santa Margarita/
Salinas Reservoir (23,843 acre feet) went from overtopping, 100% of capacity, in March of 2011
to (in February 8, 2016) 22% (83,600 acre feet) and 13.8% (3,143 acre feet) respectively in 4
years. We currently have a 3 year supply of water based on new worst case drought
information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014). Whale Rock Reservoir has a capacity of
38,967 acre feet but it is currently at 35% capacity (13,809 acre feet). Cal Poly reserves rights
to 34% of Whale Rock's capacity (13,249 at full capacity and 4,695 acre feet at 34% capacity)
but it only uses 1,100 acre feet per year. California Men's Colony reserves rights to 445 acre
feet of water from the Whale Rock Reservoir. This leaves 12,264 acre feet for San Luis Obispo
today at Whale Rock's current 35% capacity and 3,143 acre feet of the Salinas Reservoir at
13.8% capacity for a total of 15,407 acre feet. But the safe annual yield for these two reservoirs
is only 6,940.
Let's say we could take 3 years of this drought before we are flat out of water. However, at
current build out we would use 43% more or 7,151 acretfeet, so that reduces the city's
absolute supply to 2 years and 1 month. Inevitably, we will have a 2 year drought (i.e., no rain
whatsoever). This is very dangerous stuff. That's why the city is quietly seeking another 2,100
acre feet/year allotment from Nacimiento. But Nacimiento would not last another year in this
type of drought with all it's remaining 5,480 acre feet/year (3,380 current allotment plus an
additional 2,100 in the future) allotment parceled out. It, along with 6,940 acre feet of safe
annual yield of the Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs reserve, would be at 12,420 acre feet,
only 5,269 acre feet away from operational minimum pool, less than a year away from
operationally empty.