Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout02-16-2016 Public Comment, CooperCOUNCIL MEETINCi:�,� ITEMNO.: G fL Qy►11Ky- To: Maier, John Paul Subject: RE: Recommendation For A Building Moratorium _ - FEB 16 2016 From: Allan Cooper [ Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2016 4:27 AM I To: E-mail Council Website; Marx, Jan; Carpenter, Dan; Christianson, Carlyn; Ashbaugh, John; Rivoire, Dan; Lichtig, Katie; Johnson, Derek; Codron, Michael Subject: Recommendation For A Building Moratorium Honorable Mayor and Council Members - Many of us are concerned about immediate and future residential and workforce growth demands on our current dwindling water supply and overtaxed infrastructure. As you well know, we are in the midst of a 4-5 year drought and this drought will most likely continue given the fact that we are sadly experiencing all the harbinger signs of climate change. Because of this, I was asked to compile a list of current development projects in San Luis Obispo and specific plans under consideration. It is not hard, employing a number of well -tested algorithms, to extrapolate residential and workforce growth based on the number of housing units, the square foot of commercial space, the square foot of office space and the number of hotel rooms that are currently in the pipeline. I compared these numbers with the potential 2035 housing unit build out numbers if we meet our growth cap of one percent per year over the five-year Housing Element planning period. I was surprised and alarmed to discover that what we have in the pipeline will result in growth very nearly approaching the 2035 projections. No matter which growth model you choose to use, considering our current and future water supply, this growth is unsustainable. Today during the public comment period for items not on the agenda, Elisabeth Abrahams will speak to you about these concerns. The numbers she will be using are based on the research I have done. She will be recommending a temporary growth moratorium during which the City can reassess how much growth this City can actually sustain over the next 19 years. In anticipation of her presentation, I am asking you to quickly scan over the attachment below should you wish to better understand the full implications of this analysis. Thank you. Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo The following addresses the projected number of housing units and population in 2035 based on SLO's amended housing unit growth cap (a 2010 Housing Element amendment), the approximate number of housing units in the pipeline (a number which nearly meets' the Housing Element's projection for 2035), the square foot of commercial space in the pipeline, the square foot of office space in the pipeline, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline, the projected number of additional residents and employees in the pipeline, our projected jobs/housing imbalance (which will remain relatively unchanged) and the projected additional acre/feet of water consumption required to service all of the above projects in the pipeline with a worst case timeline for operational minimum pool. Submitted by Allan Cooper, 2:30 A.M., February 10, 2016. SLO's Housing Unit Growth Cap The General Plan says that "the City's housing supply shall grow no faster than one percent per year." This policy was modified in 2010 to an average of one percent per year over the five- year Housing Element planning period. The policy change responded to slow residential growth trends combined with the phasing and financing plans incorporated into the Margarita and Orcutt Specific Plan Areas. The Residential Growth Management Regulations requires each specific plan area to adopt a phasing schedule for residential growth to ensure that established thresholds in the Land Use Element are not exceeded. As shown in Table A-18, annual increases in the number of dwellings have averaged 0.45 percent over the past ten years. Units that are deed -restricted as affordable to extremely low, very low, low and moderate income households are not factored into the Growth Management Schedule because they are exempt from the Growth Management Ordinance. Dwellings built in the downtown area are also exempt. See: http://www.slocity.org/Home/ShowDocument?id=3728 & http-:I/www.slociMorcVhome/Showdocument?id=5204 & http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PUenvironmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+-+Final +EI R/4.12+Population+and+Housing. pdf Residential Development — Net Change Due To Completed Construction 2003 — 2013 2010 89 units .27% 2011 85 units .20% 2012 34 units .17% 2013 92 units .38% Unit shortfall # units we should have had in 2013 1% = 330 1% = 425 1% = 200 1% = 242 897 897 + 20,697 = 21,594 1 If no more housing projects were approved from this day on through to 2035 - 19 years from now - we would have 25,515 housing units in SLO (i.e., by the time all the above projects in the pipeline are completed and excluding the Froom Ranch assisted elder care units). The City's "build out" for 2035 (employing its more liberal growth cap target) is approximately 26,376. This would mean that the City could only permit 861 more housing units over the next 19 years! 6.1 Consistent with the growth management portion of its Land Use Element and the availability of adequate resources, the City will plan to accommodate up to 1,144 dwelling units between January 2014 and June 2019 in accordance with the assigned Regional Housing Needs Allocation. # units we should have in 2019 = 21,594 + 1,144 = 22,738 Build -Out Housing Units We Should Have By 2035 Based On SLO's Housing Unit Growth Cap: 22,738 x 116% (1 % growth 2019-2035) = 26,376 projected no. units Disclaimers: This number would likely be higher as I did not compound the 1% growth on either an annualized or 5 year basis. This number would likely be even higher as I did not factor in exemptions for downtown dwellings and affordable to very -low-income households. Housing Unit - Population Conversion: 26,376 units x 2.35 household size = 61,984 population in 2035 New housing units in the pipeline: (italics = exempted from 1 % growth cap) Avila Ranch Specific Plan San Luis Ranch Specific Plan Margarita Area Specific Plan Orcutt Area Specific Plan Chinatown Project Garden Street Terraces Project Monterey Place Project 71 Palomar Ave. Project Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone) San Luis Square Project The Junction Project SLO Terrace Project Caudill Mixed Use Project The Yard Project 860 Humbert Project Toscano Moresco Project Mangano Homes Tract Laurel Creek Project Wingate Homes Project Imel Project Righetti Ranch Project Coker Ellsworth Project Fremont Square Project 460 Marsh Street Project Froom Ranch Specific Plan Froom Ranch Specific Plan Froom Ranch Specific Plan 720 units 500 units 868 units 731 units 16 units 8 units 23 units 41 units 26,000 sq.ft. = 26 units? 48 units 69 units 17 units 36 units 43 units 20 units 18 units 177 units 117 units 78 units 18 units 304 units 35 units 21 units 4 units 275 units 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) 275 independent care apts. (one occupant units) Total Total existing plus new Housing Unit - Resident Conversion: 4,202 x 2.35 + 616 single occupant apts 46,377 current residents = LUCE projected 2035 build -out pop. Total current no. units % increase in no. units 4,818 units (166 units exempted from growth cap) 20,697 + 4,818 = 25,515 units = 10,491 more residents + 56,868 residents = 23% increase in population when all above projects are completed 58,626 20,697 units (2013) 23% increase in housing units New commercial space in the pipeline: Avila Ranch Specific Plan San Luis Ranch Specific Plan Orcutt Area Specific Plan Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan Chinatown Project Garden Street Terraces Project Monterey Place Project University Square Project Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone) San Luis Square Project The Junction Project Caudill Mixed Use Project Long-Bonetti Ranch Market Place Airport Business Center Fremont Square Project Froom Ranch Specific Plan Total Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 894,319 sq.ft. divided by 400 = 15,000 sq.ft. 200,000 sq.ft. 8,000 sq.ft. 370,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-8 http:H www.slocounV.ca.aov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+- +Final+El R/2.0+Project+Description. pdf) 51,150 sq.ft. 14, 341 sq.ft. 16,400 sq.ft. 20,000 sq.ft. 20,000 sq.ft. 21,322 sq.ft. 5,800 sq.ft. 5,327 sq.ft 19,079 sq.ft. 75,000 sq.ft. 7,900 sq.ft. 45,000 sq.ft. 894,319 sq.ft. 2,236 more commercial employees New office space in the pipeline: San Luis Ranch Specific Plan Airport Area Specific Plan (AASP) (includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan) 150,000 sq.ft. 3,361,090 sq.ft. NI (Table 4.1 n 2005 Version San Luis Obispo Airport Area Specific Plan Land Use Program And Development Capacities: http://www,slocity.ora/homel showdocument?id=4294) Chevron/Tank Farm Specific Plan Chinatown Project Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone) Aerovista Place Project Aerovista Office Buildings Fremont Square Project Total Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 921,093 sq.ft. divided by 125 = 363,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-9 http:// www.slocounty.ca.aov/Assets/PU environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) 5,630 sq.ft. 33,000 sq.ft. 37,230 sq.ft. 36,833 sq.ft. 49,400 sq.ft. 921,093 sq.ft. (AASP sq.ft. not included) 7,369 more office employees New hotel development in the pipeline: ChevronlTank Farm Specific Plan San Luis Ranch Specific Plan Chinatown Project Garden Street Terraces Project Monterey Place Project Motel Inn Project Monterey Hotel Santa Rosa Street Infill (Andrew Firestone) Calle Joaquin Hotel Development Granada Hotel Addition Total Hotel Room - Workforce Conversion: 838 rooms x 0.625 = 115 rooms 200 rooms 78 rooms 64 rooms 11 rooms 52 rooms 102 rooms 80 rooms 114 rooms (contested by Steve Marx) 22 rooms 838 rooms 524 more hotel employees Nursing Home - Workforce Conversion: 341 x 1.16 = 396 more nursing home employees Total additional employees Total employees Resident - Workforce Conversion: U.S. census: 60.5% pop. in labor force 10,525 more employees 31,000 current + 10,525 = 41,525 or 34% increase 10,525 x.605 = 6,368 new residents in labor force Total Increase In Workforce Residing In SLO: 6,700 current + 6,368 new = 13,068 out of a projected 41,525 employees = jobs to housing imbalance of 31% compared to 22% currently Average Water Consumption Per Land Use & A City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report Average daily gallons per San Luis Obispo resident Dec. 2015: 44.89 Average daily gallons per occupied hotel room: 218.00 (see: http://www.responsibletravelreport.com/component/contentlarticle/2656-green-hotels) Average no. gallons per restaurant meal: 9.90 Average daily gallons per office employee: 127.00 Average daily. gallons per miscellaneous retail employee: 152.00 (see: ht : / in t. r /w - n n l /2 1 / / n `x e , f) 10,491 more residents 838 more hotel rooms 7,369 more office workers 2,236 more retail workers Total Equivalent additional population: 1,929,360 divided by 325,851 x 365 = In 2015 San Luis Obispo total water use (for a population of 45,802) Total water resource demand with build out Total water resource availability in 2015 470,941 more gallons/day 182,684 more gallons/day 935,863 more gallons/day 339,872 more gallons/day 1,929,360 more gallons/day 42,980 more residents (excluding additional restaurant related water impacts) 2,161 more acre feet/year 4,990 acre feet/year 7,151 acre feet/year 10,005 acre feet/year "New worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014) indicates the City has approximately a three year supply of water as of September 2015." see: City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report: ham://www.slggKyDigllhgne/ shmdQQwment?id=6371 see: Water Supply Assessment for the Chevron Tankfarm Development Project: http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PUenvironmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+l I I+ -+Technical +Appendices/Appendix+G.1-SB+610+Report+-City+Development+Plan.pdf Population, Water Use & Rainfall Year Population Total Water Per Capita Rainfall (inches) Use (acre ft.) (gpcd) 2006 44,559 5,999 120.2 17.2 2007 44,433 6,493 130.5 12.7 2008 44,579 6,359 127.3 18.1 2009 44,829 6,134 122.2 18.9 2010 44,948 5,489 109.0 36.0 2011 45,418 5,285 103.9 18.9 2012 45,308 5,541 109.2 21.5 2013 45,541 5,892 115.5 3.8 2014 45,473 5,524 108.5 14.2 2015 45,802 4,990 97.3 11.8 Ten-year per capita average: 114.4 2015 & Pipeline Build Out Water Resource Availability Water Resource Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs Nacimiento Reservoir Recycled Water Siltation from 2010 to 2060 Total Total used in SLO in 2015 Total with current build out Acre Feet Description 6,940 Safe Annual Yield (1) (out of a current capacity of 15,407) 3,380 Dependable Yield (2) 185 2014 Annual Usage (3) (500) WWME Policy A 4.2.2 (4) 10,005 2015 Annual Availability 4,990 7,151 NOTES: (1) Safe Annual Yield determined from computer model, which accounts for siltation loss through 2010 (per WWME Policy A 4.2.1). "Safe Annual Yield" is the quantity of water that can be utilized consistently and reliably over an extended period of time. The extended period of time must be long enough to establish patterns that would include a worst case drought scenario. (2) Dependable Yield is the contractual amount (MY NOTE: not the actual amount remaining as Nacimiento is now at 22% capacity or 83,600 acre feet in 2015) of water the City has rights to from Nacimiento Reservoir. (3) The quantity of recycled water included is the actual prior year's recycled water usage (calendar year 2014) per WWME Policy A 7.2.2. (4) Reservoir siltation is a natural occurrence that reduces storage capacity over long periods, resulting in the reduction of safe annual yield. Executive Summary What is not explained is how Nacimiento Reservoir (377,000 acre feet) and Santa Margarita/ Salinas Reservoir (23,843 acre feet) went from overtopping, 100% of capacity, in March of 2011 to (in February 8, 2016) 22% (83,600 acre feet) and 13.8% (3,143 acre feet) respectively in 4 years. We currently have a 3 year supply of water based on new worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014). Whale Rock Reservoir has a capacity of 38,967 acre feet but it is currently at 35% capacity (13,809 acre feet). Cal Poly reserves rights to 34% of Whale Rock's capacity (13,249 at full capacity and 4,695 acre feet at 34% capacity) but it only uses 1,100 acre feet per year. California Men's Colony reserves rights to 445 acre feet of water from the Whale Rock Reservoir. This leaves 12,264 acre feet for San Luis Obispo today at Whale Rock's current 35% capacity and 3,143 acre feet of the Salinas Reservoir at 13.8% capacity for a total of 15,407 acre feet. But the safe annual yield for these two reservoirs is only 6,940. Let's say we could take 3 years of this drought before we are flat out of water. However, at current build out we would use 43% more or 7,151 acretfeet, so that reduces the city's absolute supply to 2 years and 1 month. Inevitably, we will have a 2 year drought (i.e., no rain whatsoever). This is very dangerous stuff. That's why the city is quietly seeking another 2,100 acre feet/year allotment from Nacimiento. But Nacimiento would not last another year in this type of drought with all it's remaining 5,480 acre feet/year (3,380 current allotment plus an additional 2,100 in the future) allotment parceled out. It, along with 6,940 acre feet of safe annual yield of the Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs reserve, would be at 12,420 acre feet, only 5,269 acre feet away from operational minimum pool, less than a year away from operationally empty.