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Home My WebLink About03-15-2016 Item 12, CooperTo: Mayor and Council Members Re: March 15, 2016 Business Item No. 12 - “Full Allocation Of The Nacimiento Water Project” The potential environmental impacts of full development under the City’s General Plan were evaluated in the Environmental Impact Report for the 2014 Land Use and Circulation Elements Update. When the City adopted the update and certiﬁed that EIR, it acknowledged that the planned growth would have signiﬁcant, adverse impacts. These impacts would be: conversion of prime agricultural land to urban use; increased water usage; unacceptable levels of service for trafﬁc on most arterial streets; change from rural to urban character; the number of workers increasing faster than the number of residents; and certain localized impacts due mostly to street widening or extension projects. Schools would also be further impacted. However, the EIR and Water Supply Assessment concluded that there was adequate water to serve the community through build-out. Though I agree that full development will have all of these adverse impacts, I disagree that even with your additional allocation of water from Nacimiento you will have adequate water to serve the community through build-out. Let me explain. I happened upon a Tribune newspaper article printed back in December 26, 2014 stating that Whale Rock was, at that time, 47.5% full and Salinas was 20% full. I went through Cal Poly's month by month record of rain from December 26, 2014 through to February 18, 2016. After receiving 17.54 inches of rain (92% of normal) Whale Rock was down to 34% full and Salinas was down to 13.2% full by February 18, 2016. In other words, a rain total of 92% normal resulted in 2 reservoirs losing 6,378 acre feet of water over a near fourteen month period! A worst case scenario of 13.2 inches of rain in one year (based on the 3 year drought average between 2012 - 2014) would result in wiping out Whale Rock and depleting the remaining 3,143 acre feet in Salinas by 3,891 acre feet. This would make us totally dependent on Nacimiento water. This conﬁrms what Dean Benedix, San Luis Obispo County’s Public Works Utilities Division Manager said recently: “Average rainfall will just keep us where we are, which is really low,” said. So, yes, I am delighted that we are augmenting our reliability reserve of 1,174 acre feet with 2,102 acre feet of secondary water that will be essentially off-limits to future development. And I therefore recommend that we augment our Nacimiento water allocation to 5,482 acre feet. In 1 light of climate change, this plus our 185 acre feet of recycled water will be absolutely necessary to sustain the existing population (2015: 4,990 acre feet) plus, for example, projected housing and hotel build-out currently in the pipeline. But be forewarned, this amount of water, without water from Whale Rock or Salinas, will NOT be sufﬁcient to service any additional ofﬁce, commercial/retail, manufacturing, hospital or public sector development currently planned for the future. Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo This number of acre feet plus recycled water gives us a surplus of 677 acre feet…sufﬁcient to 1 service, for example, the projected housing and hotel build-out currently in the pipeline but not enough to service any additional ofﬁce, commercial/retail, manufacturing, hospital or public sector development. To be more speciﬁc, 5,482 Nacimiento + 185 recycled = 5,667 acre feet - 4,990 used in 2015 = 677 surplus acre feet for future build-out or 604,387 additional gal. per day. Anticipating both Whale Rock and Salinas will be going off-line, an additional 439,229 gal per day from Nacimiento + 165,157 gal per day from recycled water = 604,386 gal per day. This would be enough water to service, for example, 9,736 more residents (437,049 gal per day) and 838 more hotel rooms (182,684 gal per day) but would not be enough to service build-out of additional ofﬁce, commercial/retail, manufacturing, hospital or public sector development which would require an approximate additional 1,150,690 gallons per day of water (see below) 9,736 more residents 437,049 more gallons/day 838 more hotel rooms 182,684 more gallons/day 5,978 more ofﬁce workers 759,206 more gallons/day 2,446 more retail/commercial workers 371,792 more gallons/day 109 more manufacturing employees 3,815 more gallons/day 88 more hospital workers 10,912 more gallons/day 150 bed homeless shelter 4,965 more gallons/day The following addresses the projected number of housing units and population in 2035 based on SLO’s amended housing unit growth cap (a 2010 Housing Element amendment), the approximate number of housing units in the pipeline (a number which nearly meets the Housing Element’s projection for 2035), the square foot of commercial 1 space in the pipeline, the square foot of ofﬁce space in the pipeline, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline, the projected number of additional residents and employees in the pipeline, our projected jobs/housing imbalance (which will remain relatively unchanged) and the projected additional acre/feet of water consumption required to service all of the above projects in the pipeline with a worst case timeline for operational minimum pool. Submitted by Allan Cooper, March 7, 2016. SLO’s Housing Unit Growth Cap The General Plan says that “the City’s housing supply shall grow no faster than one percent per year.” This policy was modiﬁed in 2010 to an average of one percent per year over the ﬁve- year Housing Element planning period. The policy change responded to slow residential growth trends combined with the phasing and ﬁnancing plans incorporated into the Margarita and Orcutt Speciﬁc Plan Areas. The Residential Growth Management Regulations requires each speciﬁc plan area to adopt a phasing schedule for residential growth to ensure that established thresholds in the Land Use Element are not exceeded. As shown in Table A-18, annual increases in the number of dwellings have averaged 0.45 percent over the past ten years. Units that are deed-restricted as affordable to extremely low, very low, low and moderate income households are not factored into the Growth Management Schedule because they are exempt from the Growth Management Ordinance. Dwellings built in the downtown area are also exempt. See: http://www.slocity.org/Home/ShowDocument?id=3728 & http://www.slocity.org/home/showdocument?id=5204 & http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+-+Final +EIR/4.12+Population+and+Housing.pdf Residential Development – Net Change Due To Completed Construction 2003 – 2013 2010 89 units .27% 1% = 330 2011 85 units .20% 1% = 425 2012 34 units .17% 1% = 200 2013 92 units .38% 1% = 242 Unit shortfall 897 # units we should have had in 2013 897 + 20,697 = 21,594 If no more housing projects were approved from this day on through to 2035 - 19 years from 1 now - we would have 25,515 housing units in SLO (i.e., by the time all the above projects in the pipeline are completed and excluding the Froom Ranch assisted elder care units). The City’s “build out” for 2035 (employing its more liberal growth cap target) is approximately 26,376. This would mean that the City could only permit 861 more housing units over the next 19 years! 6.1 Consistent with the growth management portion of its Land Use Element and the availability of adequate resources, the City will plan to accommodate up to 1,144 dwelling units between January 2014 and June 2019 in accordance with the assigned Regional Housing Needs Allocation. # units we should have in 2019 =21,594 + 1,144 = 22,738 Build-Out Housing Units We Should Have By 2035 Based On SLO’s Housing Unit Growth Cap: 22,738 x 116% (1% growth 2019-2035) = 26,376 projected no. units Disclaimers: This number would likely be higher as I did not compound the 1% growth on either an annualized or 5 year basis. This number would likely be even higher as I did not factor in exemptions for downtown dwellings and affordable to very-low-income households. Housing Unit - Population Conversion: 26,376 units x 2.35 household size = 61,984 population in 2035 New housing units in the pipeline: (italics = exempted from 1% growth cap) Avila Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 720 units San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 500 units Margarita Area Speciﬁc Plan 868 units Orcutt Area Speciﬁc Plan - Righetti/Jones Ranch Development 370 units (or 731 units) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 275 units Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 275 independent care apts. (one occupant units) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) Tumbling Waters (861 & 953 Orcutt) Creekston (791 Orcutt) 264 units Chinatown Project 16 units Garden Street Terraces Project 8 units Monterey Place Project 23 units 71 Palomar Ave. Project 41 units Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Andrew Firestone) 26,000 sq.ft. = 26 units? San Luis Square Project 48 units The Junction Project 69 units SLO Terrace Project 17 units Caudill Mixed Use Project 36 units The Yard Project 43 units 860 Humbert Project 20 units Toscano Moresco Project 18 units Mangano Homes Tract 177 units Laurel Creek Project 117 units Wingate Homes Project 78 units Imel Project 18 units Coker Ellsworth Project 35 units Fremont Square Project 21 units 460 Marsh Street Project 4 units Paciﬁc Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC) 9 units Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4 units Iron Works (3680 Broad) 46 units Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa 2 units Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad) 8 units Total 4,497 units (166 units exempted from growth cap) Total existing plus new 20,697 + 4,497 = 25,194 units Total additional acre foot water demand 4,497 units x 1/3 = 1,499 additional acre feet Housing Unit - Resident Conversion: 3,881 x 2.35 + 616 single occupant apts. = 9,736 more residents + 46,377 current residents = 56,113 residents = 21% increase in population when all above projects are completed LUCE projected 2035 build-out pop. 58,626 Total current no. units 20,697 units (2013) % increase in no. units 22% increase in housing units New retail/commercial space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Avila Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 15,000 sq.ft. (or 20,000 sq.ft.) San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 200,000 sq.ft. Orcutt Area Speciﬁc Plan - Righetti/Jones Ranch 15,070 sq.ft. (or 8,000 sq.ft.) Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 370,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-8 http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 45,000 sq.ft. Chinatown Project (UC) 51,150 sq.ft. Garden Street Terraces Project (UC) 14, 341 sq.ft. Monterey Place Project (E) 16,400 sq.ft. University Square Project (UC) 20,000 sq.ft. Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 20,000 sq.ft. (E 10,000 sq.ft. prior to Firestone) San Luis Square Project (579/590 Marsh) 21,322 sq.ft. (or 13,190 sq.ft.) The Junction Project (2120 S. Barbara) 5,800 sq.ft. Caudill Mixed Use Project 5,327 sq.ft Long-Bonetti Ranch Market Place 19,079 sq.ft. (or 46,932 sq.ft.) Airport Business Center (UC) 75,000 sq.ft. (or 47,000 sq.ft.) Fremont Square Project 7,900 sq.ft. Broad St. (3099/3049 Broad) 9,500 sq.ft. (or 7,000 sq.ft.) 581 SOHO (581 Higuera) (completed) 13,000 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,202 sq.ft. Orcutt & Broad (791 Orcutt) 4,000 sq.ft. (or 10,000 sq.ft.) 956 Monterey (E) 5,180 sq.ft. Iron Works (3680 Broad) 4,400 sq.ft. Santa Rosa (1135 S. Rosa) 7,150 sq.ft. Digital West (600 Tank Farm) (E) 80,000 sq.ft. Laurel Lane (1241 Laurel Lane) 9,500 sq.ft. Total 978,251 sq.ft. Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 978,251 sq.ft. divided by 400 = 2,446 more commercial employees New manufacturing space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 279 Bridge 23,309 sq.ft. SLO Brew Production 31,000 sq.ft. brewery Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 54,309 sq.ft. divided by 500 = 109 more manufacturing employees New institutional space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Froom Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 341 assisted care apts. (one occupant units) x 1.16 =396 assisted care employees French Hospital (UC) 31,471 sq.ft. divided by 1,000 sq.ft. x 2.6 = 88 hospital workers Homeless Services Center (40 Prado) (E) 20,000 sq.ft. 150 beds divided by 15 = 10 homeless shelter staff Old Mission School (774 Palm) (UC) 4,000 sq.ft. 4000 divided by 122 = 33 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff SLO Classical Academy (110 Grand) 4,182 sq.ft. 4182 divided by 122 = 34 pupils; 1 elem. teacher per 21 pupils x 2 = 3 school staff New ofﬁce space in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 150,000 sq.ft. Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan (AASP) 3,361,090 sq.ft. NI (Table 4.1 ñ 2005 Version (includes Chevron/Tank Farm Spec. Plan)San Luis Obispo Airport Area Speciﬁc Plan Land Use Program And Development Capacities: http://www.slocity.org/home/ showdocument?id=4294) Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 363,000 sq.ft. (Table 2-9 http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/ environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+I+- +Final+EIR/2.0+Project+Description.pdf) Chinatown Project (UC) 5,630 sq.ft. Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 33,000 sq.ft. Aerovista Place Project (E) 37,230 sq.ft. Aerovista Ofﬁce Buildings (E) 36,833 sq.ft. (or 44,000 sq.ft.) Fremont Square Project 49,400 sq.ft. Mind Body (651 Tank Farm) (UC) 60,000 sq.ft. Paciﬁc Courtyards (1327 Osos) (UC) 8,050 sq.ft. Broad & Marsh (667 Marsh) 4,102 sq.ft. Total 747,245 sq.ft. (AASP sq.ft. not included) Sq. ft. - Workforce Conversion: 747,245 sq.ft. divided by 125 = 5,978 more ofﬁce employees New hotel development in the pipeline: Source: Community Development Department, 2015 (Table 7; page 28) http://www.slocity.org/ home/showdocument?id=6763 Chevron/Tank Farm Speciﬁc Plan 115 rooms San Luis Ranch Speciﬁc Plan 200 rooms Chinatown Project (UC) 78 rooms Garden Street Terraces Project (UC) 64 rooms Monterey Place Project (E) 11 rooms Motel Inn Project (E) 52 rooms Monterey Hotel (1845 Monterey) (E) 102 rooms (60,368 sq.ft.) Santa Rosa Street Inﬁll (Firestone) 80 rooms Calle Joaquin Hotel Development 114 rooms (contested by S. Marx) (56,975 sq.ft.) Granada Hotel Addition (E) 22 rooms (9,871 sq.ft.) Total 838 rooms Hotel Room - Workforce Conversion: 838 rooms x 0.625 = 524 more hotel employees Total additional employees 9,557 more employees Total employees 31,000 current + 9,557 = 40,557 or 31% increase Resident - Workforce Conversion: U.S. census: 60.5% pop. in labor force 9,557 x .605 = 5,782 new residents in labor force Total Increase In Workforce Residing In SLO: 6,700 current + 5,782 new = 12,482 out of a projected 40,557 employees = jobs to housing imbalance of 31% compared to 22% currently Average Water Consumption (GPD) Per Land Use & A City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report Algorithms: Average daily gallons per San Luis Obispo resident Dec. 2015: 44.89 Average daily gallons per occupied hotel room: 218.00 Average no. gallons per restaurant meal: 9.90 Average daily gallons per ofﬁce employee: 127.00 Average daily. gallons per miscellaneous retail employee: 152.00 Average daily gallons per hospital worker: 124.00 Average no. FTE hospital workers per 1,000 square feet)2.6 Average daily gallons per K-12 school pupil:15.00 Average daily gallons per manufacturing employee:15.00 - 35.00 Average no. square feet per manufacturing employee:500.00 Average no. kilo gallons per bed nursing care divided by 356 92.1 Average no. gallons per bed homeless shelter 33.1 Average no. gallons per school seat 10.0 (see: http://www.responsibletravelreport.com/component/content/article/2656-green-hotels) (see: http://snohomishcountywa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/7660) (see: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/wr/cro/images/pdfs/gpm_estimate.pdf) (see: http://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/appendix_e3.pdf) (see: http://coloradowaterwise.org/Resources/Documents/ICI_toolkit/docs/Brendle%20Group %20and%20CWW%20ICI%20Benchmarking%20Study.pdf) (see: https://edocs.publicworks.houstontx.gov/documents/.../criteria.doc) 9,736 more residents 437,049 more gallons/day 838 more hotel rooms 182,684 more gallons/day 5,978 more ofﬁce workers 759,206 more gallons/day 2,446 more retail/commercial workers 371,792 more gallons/day 109 more manufacturing employees 3,815 more gallons/day 88 more hospital workers 10,912 more gallons/day 150 bed homeless shelter 4,965 more gallons/day 67 seat schools 670 more gallons/day 341 nursing home beds 31,372 more gallons/day Total 1,802,465 more gallons/day Equivalent additional population:40,153 more residents (excluding additional restaurant related water impacts) 1,802,465 divided by 325,851 x 365 = 2,019 more acre feet/year In 2015 San Luis Obispo total water use 4,990 acre feet/year (for a population of 45,802) Total water resource demand with build out 7,009 acre feet/year Total water resource availability in 2015 10,005 acre feet/year “New worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014) indicates the City has approximately a three year supply of water as of September 2015.” see: City of SLO 2015 Water Resources Status Report: http://www.slocity.org/home/ showdocument?id=6371 see: Water Supply Assessment for the Chevron Tankfarm Development Project: http:// www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/environmental/Chevron+Tank+Farm/Volume+III+-+Technical +Appendices/Appendix+G.1-SB+610+Report+-City+Development+Plan.pdf Population, Water Use & Rainfall Year Population Total Water Per Capita Rainfall (inches) Use (acre ft.)(gpcd) 2006 44,559 5,999 120.2 17.2 2007 44,433 6,493 130.5 12.7 2008 44,579 6,359 127.3 18.1 2009 44,829 6,134 122.2 18.9 2010 44,948 5,489 109.0 36.0 2011 45,418 5,285 103.9 18.9 2012 45,308 5,541 109.2 21.5 2013 45,541 5,892 115.5 3.8 2014 45,473 5,524 108.5 14.2 2015 45,802 4,990 97.3 11.8 Ten-year per capita average:114.4 2015 & Pipeline Build Out Water Resource Availability Water Resource Acre Feet Description Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs 6,940 Safe Annual Yield (1) (out of a current capacity of 15,407) Salinas Reservoir 23,843 Total Capacity Salinas Reservoir 3,143 Current Salinas Reservoir 2,000 Minimum Pool Salinas Reservoir 1,143 Available to SLO Salinas Reservoir 1,000/year Evaporation Rate Whale Rock Reservoir 40,662 Total Capacity Whale Rock Reservoir 13,809 Current Whale Rock Reservoir 2,000 Minimum Pool (est. 1989) Whale Rock Reservoir 11,809 Available to SLO, CPU, CMC & Cayucos Whale Rock Reservoir 4,300 SLO Share (55.05% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 1,500/year Evaporation Rate Whale Rock Reservoir 5,300 Cal Poly Share (banked share = ?) (33.71% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 2,300 CMC Share (banked share = ?) (11.24% capacity rights) Whale Rock Reservoir 600 Cayucos Share Nacimiento Reservoir 377,900 Total Capacity Nacimiento Reservoir 83,600 Current (22% capacity) Nacimiento Reservoir 22,300 Minimum Pool Nacimiento Reservoir 61,300 Available to SLO, SLO Cnty, N. R., Monterey Cnty, Santa Maria, Paso, Templeton, Atascadero, (& Nipomo in the future) Nacimiento Reservoir 17,500 Available to SLO Cnty Proposed 23,505 Actual Use by Cnty. 11,405 Nacimiento Reservoir 3,380 SLO Share or Dependable Yield (2) Proposed 5,482 (34.806%) Nacimiento Reservoir 1,750 Lake Use Nacimiento Reservoir 10,730 /year Evaporation Rate Nacimiento Reservoir 2,102 Recently Requested Recycled Water 185 2014 Annual Usage (3) Siltation from 2010 to 2060 (500) WWME Policy A 4.2.2 (4) Total 10,005 2015 Annual Availability Reliability Reserve (not for new develop.) 2,000 To meet short term losses Removed May 14, 2002 RR Restored in 2010 1,174 Secondary (not for new development) 1,501 To meet short term losses Proposed 3,603 Primary (existing & new development) 7,330 City Wells - Per WWME Policy A 3.2.3, the City does not consider groundwater a source of supply due to limitations on its use. Paciﬁc Beach #1 11950 Los Osos Valley Road Municipal/Domestic Corp Yard 25 Prado Road Construction Laguna Golf Course #1 11175 Los Osos Valley Road Irrigation Laguna Golf Course #2 11175 Los Osos Valley Road Irrigation Total used in SLO in 2015 4,990 Total with current build out 7,151 NOTES: (1) Safe Annual Yield determined from computer model, which accounts for siltation loss through 2010 (per WWME Policy A 4.2.1). “Safe Annual Yield” is the quantity of water that can be utilized consistently and reliably over an extended period of time. The extended period of time must be long enough to establish patterns that would include a worst case drought scenario. (2) Dependable Yield is the contractual amount (MY NOTE: not the actual amount remaining as Nacimiento is now at 22% capacity or 83,600 acre feet in 2015) of water the City has rights to from Nacimiento Reservoir. (3) The quantity of recycled water included is the actual prior year’s recycled water usage (calendar year 2014) per WWME Policy A 7.2.2. (4) Reservoir siltation is a natural occurrence that reduces storage capacity over long periods, resulting in the reduction of safe annual yield. (5) A drought response strategy that went to the City Council June 2, 2015 included a proposal to defer or signiﬁcantly reduce water consumption for new development. The proposal would apply to new developments seeking building permits. The proposal is as follows: “Defer landscape planting or provide modiﬁed landscape plans for new development that signiﬁcantly reduces water demand.” During the summer months, 30% of water use is for landscape irrigation. For existing development: “Limiting outdoor watering to two days a week…” and “Reestablishing a high efﬁciency toilet and washing machine rebate program. The City proposes to create a $100,000 rebate fund and offer $100 rebates for property owners who retroﬁt their homes with high efﬁciency toilets an/or washing machines.”   May 28, 2015 8:58 PM “SLO residents must cut water use or face possible rationing this summer”. Read more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/ article39534897.html#storylink=cpyRead more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/ article39534897.html#storylink=cpy Executive Summary What is not explained is how Nacimiento Reservoir (377,000 acre feet) and Santa Margarita/ Salinas Reservoir (23,843 acre feet) went from overtopping, 100% of capacity, in March of 2011 to (in February 8, 2016) 22% (83,600 acre feet) and 13.8% (3,143 acre feet) respectively in 4 years. We currently have a 3 year supply of water based (it can be argued that we only have 1 year supply) on new worst case drought information (climatic data for 2012, 2013, and 2014). Whale Rock Reservoir has a capacity of 38,967 acre feet but it is currently at 35% capacity (13,809 acre feet). Cal Poly reserves rights to 34% of Whale Rock’s capacity (13,249 at full capacity and 4,695 acre feet at 34% capacity) but it only uses 1,100 acre feet per year. California Men’s Colony reserves rights to 445 acre feet of water from the Whale Rock Reservoir. However, both Cal Poly & the CMC have been banking their shares which thereby reduces SLO’s share because SLO hasn’t been banking at all. This leaves 12,264 acre feet for San Luis Obispo today at Whale Rock’s current 35% capacity and 3,143 acre feet of the Salinas Reservoir at 13.8% capacity for a total of 15,407 acre feet. But the safe annual yield for these two reservoirs is only 6,940. Let's say we could take 3 years of this drought before we are ﬂat out of water. However, at current build out we would use 43% more or 7,151 acre/feet, so that reduces the city's absolute supply to 2 years and 1 month. Inevitably, we will have a 2 year drought (i.e., no rain whatsoever). This is very dangerous stuff. That's why the city is quietly seeking another 2,100 acre feet/year allotment from Nacimiento. But Nacimiento would not last another year in this type of drought with all it's remaining 5,480 acre feet/year (3,380 current allotment plus an additional 2,100 in the future) allotment parceled out. It, along with 6,940 acre feet of safe annual yield of the Salinas & Whale Rock Reservoirs reserve, would be at 12,420 acre feet, only 5,269 acre feet away from operational minimum pool, less than a year away from operationally empty. Residential Growth Rate Table 3 on page 1-37 of the LUCE states that these growth projections are “approximate”. They are very “approximate”. 1.One percent growth every year does not include •Housing in the downtown core (this is not mentioned in the LUCE document) •So-called affordable or workforce housing Non-Residential Growth Rate 2.“…the City Council shall evaluate the actual increase in nonresidential ﬂoor area over the preceding ﬁve years. The Council shall consider establishing limits for the rate of nonresidential development if the increase in nonresidential ﬂoor area for any ﬁve-year period exceeds ﬁve percent.” This excludes: •Changed employment levels of existing businesses •The downtown core •Public agencies •Manufacturing, light industrial, research businesses, or companies providing a signiﬁcant number of head of household job The City will establish…a reliability reserve that is 20-percent of the water use (123.2 gallons per capita per day) rate established in Policy A 5.2.1 may not be used to serve future development” (not “shall”?). As reported in the 2014 Water Resource Status Report (October 2014), availability from these sources equal 9,997 acre-feet, as shown in Table 9. This supply meets the projected primary water supply need at General Plan build-out of 7,128 acre-feet, plus an additional 1,209 acre- feet for a reliability reserve and a secondary water supply of 1,660 acre-feet. The primary water supply was calculated using the City’s build-out population (53,700 people) and the water use rate of 118.5 gallons per capita per day (a ten-year running average of the 2 City’s actual per capita water use). The Reliability Reserve was calculated using the City’s 2013 population and 20 percent of the aforementioned water use rate. The secondary water supply includes the remaining water resources available in 2013. Cal Poly Enrollments 1945 819 1949 2,909 1966 7,740 Does this per capita ﬁgure includes both residential and nonresidential water consumption?2 1968 9,711 1977 15,502 1986 15,450 2000 16,877 2015 20,944 13 year period 1977 - 2000 + 1,375 15 year period 2000 - 2015 + 4,067 (3x faster than the previous 13 years) September 16, 2013: “President Jeffrey Armstrong told faculty and staff Monday that Cal Poly should continue to grow enrollment, hopefully increasing the university's population’s by 4,000 to 5,000 students over the next few years.” Read more here: http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/local/education/ article39455100.html#storylink=cpy