HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-15-2016 Item 12, Cooper (2)RECEIVED
MAR 14 2016
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From: Maier, John Paul
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2016 2:17 PM
To: Goodwin, Heather
Subject: FW: March 15, 2015 Council Meeting Business Item No. 12 - "FULL ALLOCATION OF THE
NACIMIENTO WATER PROJECT"
Attachments: 103_14_16... councilspeech.pdf
COUNCIL MEETING: ,j- I ,S- }_/ (/J
ITEM NO.: I Z
From: Allan Cooper,,
Sent: Monday, March 14, 2016 12:56 PM
To: E -mail Council Website; Lichtig, Katie; Codron, Michael; Johnson, Derek; Mattingly, Carrie; Floyd, Aaron
Subject: March 15, 2015 Council Meeting Business Item No. 12 - "FULL ALLOCATION OF THE NACIMIENTO WATER
PROJECT"
Honorable Mayor and Council Members -
Recognizing that my "benchmark dates ", showing an
alarming decline in both Whale Rock and Salinas reservoir
levels, overlapped three months when Nacimiento was
offline (for pipe repairs), I've since decided to look instead
at reservoir levels between April 23, 2015 and February
29, 2016 to avoid this overlap. However, the water
shortfall order of magnitude remains the same based on a
reasonable expectation that we will receive no more than 9
inches of rain between now and February 29, 2017. So I
am forwarding you via attachment my revised numbers
(note red text). Thanks in advance for giving your time
and consideration to this important matter.
- Allan Cooper San Luis Obispo
To: Mayor and Council Members
Re: March 15, 2016 Business Item No. 12 - "Full Allocation Of The Nacimiento Water
Project"
The potential environmental impacts of full development under the City's General Plan were
evaluated in the Environmental Impact Report for the 2014 Land Use and Circulation Elements
Update. When the City adopted the update and certified that EIR, it acknowledged that the
planned growth would have'significant, adverse impacts'. These impacts would be: conversion
of prime agricultural land to urban use; increased water usage; unacceptable levels of service
for traffic on most arterial streets; change from rural to urban character; the number of workers
increasing faster than the number of residents; and certain localized impacts due mostly to
street widening or extension projects. Schools would also be further impacted. However, the
EIR and Water Supply Assessment concluded that there was adequate water to serve the
community through build -out.
Though I agree that full development will have all of these adverse impacts, I disagree that even
with your additional allocation of water from Nacimiento you will have adequate water to serve
the community through build -out.
Let me explain. I happened upon a Tribune newspaper article printed back in April 23, 2015
(i ttp:// www .sanluisobispo.com /news4ocal/ water - and - drought /article39525720.1iti -ni) stating that
Whale Rock was, at that time, 43% full (16,756 af) and Salinas was 17% full (4,053 af). I went
through the Cal Poly Irrigation Training & Research Center's month by month record of rain from
April 23, 2015 through to February 29, 2016. After receiving 14.17 inches of rain Whale Rock
was down to 34% full (13,249 af) and Salinas was down to 13.2% full (3,147 af) over a ten
month period. In other words, a rain total of 14.17 inches resulted in 2 reservoirs losing 4,412
acre feet of water and this was well after Nacimiento was back online! Given the fact that as of
today, it has rained 4.89 inches in Marche, it's conceivable that we won't receive any more than
9.28 inches of rain between now and February 29, 2017 and past history has shown that it will
be about this much (March 14 thru February 29: 2014/2015: 9.55 in.; 2013/2014: 9.06 in.). A
scenario of 14.17 inches of rain between a comparable period of time (February 29, 2016 and
January 7, 2017) would result in reducing Whale Rock to 9,742 af. After subtracting the
1 The EIR for the Nacimiento Water Project stated that the project may have a "growth
inducement" effect. In areas where water availability is a growth limiting factor, the additional
water availability provided by the project may encourage greater growth than currently
projected. This could result in a sooner than expected water "deficit ". Most of the agency
representatives interviewed said that increased growth was not a key factor in their choice to
participate in the project. However, private developers may use the additional supply as an
argument to increase growth. It will be up to the elected officials in each participating agency to
decide whether to use the additional water provided by the project to increase short term
growth, or use it to extend the time that current growths rate can be sustained.
The project's EIR stated that by 2020, even with the project, Paso Robles, Atascadero, and San
Luis Obispo will have "water demands in excess of supplies" and "these entities would either
increase groundwater pumping or would need to develop other supplemental water supplies."
2 http : / /cesanluisobispo .ucanr.edu /about/weather 1_89/?
weather= monthlyinfo &station= 160 &month =3
minimum pool, SLO, CPSU, CIVIC and Cayucus would come up 4,067 of short. After subtracting
Salinas' minimum pool, SLO would come up 902 of short. This would make us totally dependent
on Nacimiento water. This confirms what Dean Benedix, San Luis Obispo County's Public
Works Utilities Division Manager said recently: "Average rainfall will just keep us where we are,
which is really low," said.
So, yes, I am delighted that we are augmenting our reliability reserve of 1,174 acre feet with
2,102 acre feet of secondary water that will be essentially off - limits to future development. And I
therefore recommend that we augment our Nacimiento water allocation to 5,4823 acre feet. In
light of climate change4, this plus our 185 acre feet of recycled water will be absolutely
necessary to sustain the existing population (2015: 4,990 acre feet) plus, for example, projected
housing and hotel build -out currently in the pipeline. But be forewarned, this amount of water,
without Whale Rock or Salinas, will NOT be sufficient to service any additional office,
commercial /retail, manufacturing, hospital or public sector development currently planned for
the future. You will feel compelled to withhold building permits to these already entitled
developers. However, I am urging you not to place San Luis Obispo in the same predicament
3 This number of acre feet plus recycled water gives us a surplus of 677 acre feet... sufficient to
service, for example, the projected housing and hotel build -out currently in the pipeline but not
enough to service any additional office, commercial /retail, manufacturing, hospital or public
sector development. To be more specific, 5,482 Nacimiento + 185 recycled = 5,667 acre feet -
4,990 used in 2015 = 677 surplus acre feet for future build -out or 604,387 additional gal. per
day. Anticipating both Whale Rock and Salinas will eventually be going off -line, an additional
439,229 gal per day from Nacimiento + 165,157 gal per day from recycled water = 604,386 gal
per day. This would be enough water to service, for example, 9,736 more residents (437,049 gal
per day) and 838 more hotel rooms (182,684 gal per day) but would not be enough to service
build -out of additional office, commercial /retail, manufacturing, hospital or public sector
development which would require an approximate additional 1;150,690 gallons per day of water
(see below)
9,736 more residents
437,049 more gallons /day
838 more hotel rooms
182,684 more gallons /day
5,978 more office workers
759,206 more gallons /day
2,446 more retail /commercial workers
371,792 more gallons /day
109 more manufacturing employees
3,815 more gallons /day
88 more hospital workers
10,912 more gallons /day
150 bed homeless shelter
4,965 more gallons /day
4 Revenue - Neutrall Carbon Free Dividend Act: "We are approaching a dangerous threshold
whereby, if it is crossed, humans will no longer be able to influence the course of future global
warming, as tropical forests, peat bogs, permafrost and the oceans switch from absorbing
carbon to releasing it. Climate change caused by global warming - related greenhouse gas
emissions including CO2 already is leading to large -scale problems including increasing acidity
of oceans and rising sea levels; more frequent, extreme, and damaging weather events such as
heat waves, storms, heavy rainfall and flooding, and droughts; more frequent and intense
wildfires; disrupted ecosystems affecting biodiversity and food production; and an increase in
heat - related deaths."
Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, Oceano and Pismo Beach are currently finding themselves
where a Superior Court Judge has just ruled that "Any attempt to withhold building permits on
this basis (i.e., inadequate water) would impact non - parties who relied in good faith on the
approval of their new developments and would likely result in new litigation,"
Allan Cooper, San Luis Obispo