HomeMy WebLinkAbout02-28-2018 Item 2 - Meyer
Purrington, Teresa
From:Cohen, Rachel
Sent:Tuesday, February 20, 2018 8:12 AM
To:Purrington, Teresa
Subject:FW: Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Comments to the EIR
Hi Teresa-
th
Please pass on the e-mail below to the PC for the February 28 meeting regarding Item #2.
Thank you,
Rachel Cohen
Associate Planner
Community Development
919 Palm Street, San Luis Obispo, CA 93401-3218
E rcohen@slocity.org
T 805.781.7574
slocity.org
From: Bochum, Tim
Sent: Tuesday, February 20, 2018 8:03 AM
To: Cohen, Rachel <rcohen@slocity.org>
Cc: Lee, Scott <SLee@slocity.org>
Subject: FW: Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Comments to the EIR
Am I listed as the EIR contact for comments?
From: Eric Meyer \[ ]
Sent: Saturday, February 17, 2018 12:18 AM
To: Bochum, Tim <tbochum@slocity.org>
Subject: Fwd: Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Comments to the EIR
Tim,
Forwarding this to you because I see (after sending it to Scott Lee) that you are listed as the project contact. Please
make sure my comments are attached to the EIR and responded to… thanks
Eric Meyer
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Eric Meyer <frenchbicycles@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, Feb 17, 2018 at 12:05 AM
Subject: Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Comments to the EIR
To: slee@slocity.org
Cc: "Grigsby, Daryl" <dgrigsby@slocity.org>, "Johnson, Derek" <djohnson@slocity.org>
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Scott,
Please include my letter below, the linked report "RethinkX Disruption…" as well as the article from "Parking Today"
(attached at the bottom of my letter below)… as my comments to the Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Environmental
Impact Report
Thank you:
Comment letter to Palm Nipomo Parking Garage Environmental Impact Report, City of San Luis Obispo, Feb 16, 2018
From Eric Meyer
I believe that the studies used to ascertain the need for this parking garage are outdated. The data used to determine
the necessity for this new parking structure does not include any discussion of the shift toward driverless autonomous
cars by the entire automobile industry nor do any of the studies accurately discuss the concept of Transportation as a
Service (TAAS).
Autonomous car usage and behavior will not be anything like the current usage patterns. This is not discussed in
determining the need for this garage. If the predictions made in the last year are accurate, the environmental impacts
associated with the building of this garage could possibly be entirely avoided simply because the entire transportation
industry will evolve in a way that no longer requires cars to be parked in locations near activity centers. This has already
been predicted… why is it not discussed in this EIR?
The Fehr and Peers Transportation Impact analysis for this Parking Garage was done in 2012. This was six years
ago. Many of the economic and data driven analysis used to determine the need for this garage are also from before
2016 and and do not take into account recent dramatic shift toward autonomous cars and the shifts coming to
transportation habits as a result. WHY?
Shouldn't we include all known current data in the discussion of parking trends and needs? Shouldn't we include a
range of projections as to how autonomous cars might affect the average occupancy needs of this garage? Why has this
not been discussed?
Since the analyses used to determine the need for this garage were written there has been dramatic news about the
disruption coming from electric autonomous cars. It is now known by ALL transportation, parking and transit
professionals that autonomous cars will either gradually or suddenly revolutionize the transportation and parking sector
at sometime within the next 5-20 years. Indeed all of the major automobile industry manufacturers, as well as most of
the major computer companies, ride hailing companies, etc are ALL investing billions of dollars into autonomous cars
right now. It is one of the largest and widest investments into a new sector from the broadest segments of our
industries in history. Where is this discussion in the EIR?
The question is not "whether" this disruption will come.. rather it is "when" will it occur.
Tony Seba, from Stanford University, a leading expert on the coming transportation disruption, projects that up to 80%
of parking spots will not be needed by 2030. The website RethinkX.com describes this coming disruption in
transportation. His is only one discussion… there are literally dozens if not hundreds of papers on this subject. Again,
where is discussion in the EIR! How can we know that we must create the impacts associated with the building of this
garage if we don't accurately include all data from all the current discussion around autonomous cars?
I would like to include the following report, in it's totality, to my comment… it is titled:
"RethinkX Disruption, Implications, and Choices, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030… The disruption of
Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal Combustion Vehicle and Oil industries"
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See link below and add the entire content of the report to my comment:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/59f279b3652deaab9520fba6/1509063126843/R
ethinkX+Report_102517.pdf
if you cannot reach the report via that link then you can find it by clicking the "get the report"
at https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation
if you cannot find it there… then go to www.rethinkx.com and search for the report on the homepage.
At the very least the entire text of this report should be contained in an appendix to the EIR so that the public can
accurately asses whether the data in this report is important to the discussion of building this parking facility and the the
risks of it going unused balanced against the environmental impacts of its being built in the first place.
This report is an in depth dive by a broad panel of industry experts into the subject of Transportation as a Service (TAAS)
and autonomous cars and what they will do to to the automobile industry, transportation, energy, and parking sectors.
The coming changes are vast and yet we are not considering them in the discussion around this parking garage. The
discussions from this report should be included in the rational leading up to determining the need to create the impacts
associated with this garage. Yet these changes are not included or mentioned in any meaningful way despite the
dramatic shifts happening in the automobile industry at this very moment.
Nowhere in this EIR is there any mention of this coming transportation disruption. How can this be allowed. There
should be careful analysis as to the likelihood of this disruption ccurring in a given number of years… and exactly what
that will mean to the need for this garage. There should be some consideration for the impacts coming from
autonomous cars and how these impacts will affect transportation habits and parking needs of the future.
Neither Transportation as a Service (TAAS) nor Autonomous Vehicles are mentioned in any of the studies leading up to
the need to build this parking structure. How can we accurately assess the future projected occupancies of this parking
facility without considering TAAS and or autonomous vehicles?
If TAAS and autonomous car usage projections are correct, and this parking garage goes 80% vacant within 12 years…
where are the funds going to come from to pay off the millions of dollars of bonds sold to pay for this garage in the first
place? Most likely they will have to come from the city's General Fund… in which case that means that other city
services and amenities will have to be cut in order to pay for a garage that may not be able to pay for itself and may not
be necessary. But we won't know this unless we study the data and understand the trends.
At the very least… we need analysis determining the occupancy needs of this garage to be based on current projected
automotive parking trends from data that includes TAAS and autonomous car projections from leading experts today…
not from before 2017. Transportation forecast data and trip generation data, and parking data trends from prior to the
autonomous car discussion, and prior to the concept of TAAS is now completely outdated and useless.
It is my hope that we can more accurately determine the exact size and scale of this garage based on current data rather
than useless data from before the Autonomous car discussion began.
SO… I do not know whether this disruption is coming or not. But I am concerned that the city has not accurately
assessed the risks associated with what this disruption could do to our parking department income and all of the
associated facilities. I am worried about how the bonds sold to finance this parking garage will be paid back if the facility
is overbuilt and under parked. I am concerned we are creating a lot of impacts without fully understanding whether or
not we actually will need the building in 10 years.
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I will sign off by including an article from "ParkingToday.com" (an online magazine dedicated to the parking
industry…)This article is from May 2017. Note that I have highlighted the section on parking in red for emphasis. I
would like your your response to the points made in this letter.
START PAYING ATTENTION NOW
May, 2017
The ‘driverless’ car’s impact on real estate
Wes Guckert
When you talk about “driverless” cars, images of Knight Rider’s KITT car or scenes
from the science fiction film “Minority Report” may come to mind. While it’s hard to
wrap your head around the idea of getting into a vehicle without a driver, significant
public discussion and substantial private investments are accelerating such
technologies.
Business Insider published a report in October 2016 that reviewed 19 major
companies claiming to put self-driving cars on the road by 2021. That might seem
much further off in the future, but the reality is that that is only four years from now.
The reality is that these new autonomous vehicles will likely drive massive
disruption, forcing real estate investors and developers to re-examine their
strategies.
For example, Houston’s central business district comprises 65% streets and surface
parking, with only 35% for buildings and parks.
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Even in Washington, DC, which has a sizable mass transit system, streets and
parking take up 45% of the downtown central business district, and vehicles can
occupy substantial space within buildings — upward of 30%.
It’s hoped that driverless vehicles will reduce the need for car-related space, relieve
congestion, reduce fuel use and lower the number of accidents. The likely advent of
these vehicles means real estate owners and investors should start paying attention
now. But how will driverless cars affect real estate usage and values?
The Need for Parking Spaces Will Drop
A lot of discussion is going on as to whether the need for parking will drop, increase
or stay the same. Experts and analysts are weighing in on this issue.
Deloitte’s Leader of Global and U.S. Real Estate, Bob O’Brien, told Law360 that
investors are already planning for a time when large parking garages are simply not
needed. And a report by Green Street Advisors, a California-based research firm,
estimates that a decline in vehicle ownership could cut U.S. parking needs in half
within 30 years. That would eliminate 75 billion square feet of parking space.
To put it in perspective, this is more than the combined area of all apartment, office,
shopping mall, retail strip center and warehouse buildings in the country today.
That’s a lot of land to potentially repurpose!
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What does that mean? It means that values of parking garages and all parking lots
will plummet. It also appears that some above-ground parking garage structures will
be repurposed, but many will become obsolete because of floor-to-floor
dimensions.
Parking components for high-rise apartment buildings — which comprise as much
as 15% to 20% of construction costs — will likely become unnecessary, or at least
reduced. This reduction in cost will increase developer returns or allow for a
reduction in rental costs by possibly as much as 30%.
Bike Lanes and Urban Green Space
If indeed private vehicle ownership will decline, then the need for road-side parking
will decline, making more neighborhood streets twice as wide as needed. Parking
lanes on streets could be converted to bicycle and scooter lanes. Some streets
could be repurposed into green spaces, decreasing water runoff and heat buildup.
San Francisco, for example, already has programs that allow residents to repurpose
street parking into mini public spaces or very small parks and patios called
“parklets.” Converting a fraction of the city’s 280,000 parking spaces (which
represents 40 million square feet) could result in significant changes in residential
and retail markets there.
Prime Real Estate
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Autonomous cars operating as fleets and maintained and refueled at central
locations will make the new corner gas station and convenience store obsolete. It is
expected in the future that privately owned autonomous cars will be programmed to
refuel on their own. It has been noted that, as of 2012, the U.S. had more than
125,000 gas stations and convenience stores, many of which are sited on busy
intersections and suitable for redevelopment.
Transit-Oriented Developments (TODs)The desirability of living close to mass
transit may increase because people may be more willing to abandon their cars and
depend on the ready availability of driverless cars, if they know they are able to
conveniently move around on subways, light rail or buses.
We see this happening today with millennials in cities and urbanized areas. In
Washington, DC, parking for new apartment facilities equals 0.33 spaces per unit. In
Baltimore, the demand for parking is lessening to about 1 space per unit.
Asked why, major developers indicate that urban mobility companies such as Uber
and Lyft have created a market that results in millennials not wanting or needing a
car.
‘Robo Cars’ and Parking Spaces
About 30% to 60% of the cars driving around a downtown core are just circling,
looking for open parking spaces. Worldwide, urban drivers spend an average of 20
minutes, per trip, looking for parking.
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It’s expected that fleets of self-driving cars could scurry around picking up people
and dropping them off, working in sleek robotic efficiency. They would pick up
several people heading the same way, optimizing ride-sharing on the fly, just like
Uber Pool and Lyft Line.
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in 2005, 76% of U.S. workers, who lived in the
same city where they worked and commuted to their jobs in a vehicle by
themselves, only 7.8% of them did so using public transportation.
What Are Cities to Do?
While it seems there is still a disconnect between transportation planners and the
push for driverless technology, city planners and local officials should begin
planning now for this technology — before they find themselves looking in the rear
view mirror. Being prepared ensures the successful future of individual cities.
Here are a few suggestions to aid in the planning process:
Encourage any new garages in your city be designed with 15-to-18-foot floor-to-
ceiling clearances to enable reuse in the future. The need for parking will diminish
as we continue to move deeper into an auto-sharing industry. Reuse of garages into
higher density will provide another source of real estate tax revenue. (Deloitte’s
O’Brien has even noticed that offices buildings with parking garages currently under
construction are being built so that the garage has flat floors. The idea is that this
space can easily be converted once driverless vehicles are mainstream.)
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Allow developers to provide fewer parking spaces and allow the market to decide if
parking is needed for new residential developments. Encourage parking that is
unbundled.
Understand that the old standard of parking for retail centers (4.5-5 spaces/1,000
square feet) is no longer needed. Allow these centers to provide residential uses on
the unused parking areas.
Be supportive of the private ride-sharing companies such as Uber, Lyft, Bridj, zTrip
and others. Private transportation companies know how to survive and make
money; therefore, allow them to freely use the current public transit stops.
Be prepared for how gas stations and convenience stores can be repurposed and
the land rezoned as the U.S. moves to electric vehicles and hybrids, versus
gasoline-powered autos. Determine the best use for those current land uses.
In Conclusion
Driverless vehicles are coming, and they will be here faster than we can imagine.
There is no question that vast economic and cultural changes will arrive with them,
and real estate is in its path and will be clearly impacted in many ways.
Smart investors, developers and transportation engineers should immediately begin
analyzing their portfolios and setting goals for the future.
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Wes Guckert is President and CEO of The Traffic Group. Contact him at
wguckert@trafficgroup.com; visit the website www.trafficgroup.com; or follow him
on Twitter @wes_guckert.
Thanks
Eric Meyer
--
Eric Meyer
--
Eric Meyer
frenchbicycles@gmail.com
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